Regrading the Pascal Trade

[mihaic]

I give a B, but if Ingram is healthy and plays at an all-star level it's obviously an A.

I give a B+ only because we got additional assets and BI is signed for slightly less salary.

[Spates]

Just as a general thought exercise (and genuine curiosity), how many trades where Team A gave up an All-Star and did not receive an All-Star in return would be considered a win for Team A?

Not a former All-Star, but one that made an All-Star appearance with their new team.

I’m sure there are some I’m missing, but none immediately come to mind.

Jesus.

1. Siakam is not a perennial all-star. It depends on whether his team is winning that season.
2. BI was an all-star, is three years younger than Siakam and is cheaper.
3. BI's game is MUCH more complementary with our best player.
4. We didn't just get BI, we got Ochai and Walter, both young promising players. And depending on how deep into the weeds you want to get with cap machinations, the trade gave us the flexibility to acquire Davion and the Portland second.
5. Trading Pascal allowed us to tank this year - a strong draft year, unlike last season where we missed on a chance to draft, uh, Reed Sheppard ?- which will give us yet another young promising piece. Maybe even a star/superstar.

So yeah, not a bad trade.

Let's not forget that Jamal Murray has never been an all-star or made an all-nba team... There's more to player eval than simply listing achievements.

Pascal is talented. The problem was how he wanted to play while on this team. He made numerous comments about wanting to be a star wing. Last season when his touches went down under Darko, he seemed dissatisfied and the fanbase was incensed. Look at the tracking data with Indiana:

1. This is Pascal's most efficient and impactful season since 2019
2. His time of possession is nearly a third of what it was in 22/23. From 5.9 minutes to 2.1.
3. His touches are 2/3s of what they were in 22/23. From low 80s to mid 50s
4. And naturally, with these changes there's far less self creation. He's been assisted on a larger percentage of his looks.

Nobody wanted this when he was in Toronto. Although he was always an elite finisher masquerading as a shot creator.

BI has been a more efficient shot creator to this point with a similar self-creation. It seems pretty clear that BI is bought into what Darko wants to run so it seems reasonable to expect a similar spike in efficiency. Regardless Brandon is younger, cheaper, and a better 3 level scorer.

[pingpongrac]

Just as a general thought exercise (and genuine curiosity), how many trades where Team A gave up an All-Star and did not receive an All-Star in return would be considered a win for Team A?

Not a former All-Star, but one that made an All-Star appearance with their new team.

I’m sure there are some I’m missing, but none immediately come to mind.

I was as big of a Siakam fan as any, but it became increasingly obvious that the on-court fit with Scottie — who the organization has been fully onboard with making the franchise player — just wasn’t very good. Both of them excel with the ball in their hands, both of them operate in similar spaces, both of them aren’t very good shooters off the catch, both of them are PFs, etc. And then when you consider that Siakam was looking for ~50M/year through his early 30s, the writing was on the wall.

There have been numerous debates/threads about Siakam and Ingram as players over the years. Siakam is (or was at least) the better defender while Ingram is the better pure scorer and they’re both above average playmakers. Both are all-star talents with the big difference being Siakam played for a more competent organization in the East. They’re very comparable overall. The fact that we essentially swapped Siakam for a similarly talented player who is 3 years younger, a bit cheaper and more than likely fits better with Scottie should be seen as a clear win. Not to mention we also walked away with Agbaji (legitimate 3+D rotation wing now) and JKW (potential to be a pretty good scoring 3+D wing in a few years) as well. Literally the only downside is Ingram’s injury history.

Grading this trade anything below a B+ is just some deep-seated resentment towards some of the other moves the FO made over the past 5 years.

I consider the mistreatment of Siakam to be a part of the overall negative result of the trade as well. We cut off contact with him and used half of last season just to trade him, killing any chance of a competitive year. That's just one angle.

Second angle is we decided to clear out Siakam in order to give Scottie the room to grow his game. He did not grow his game. Not nearly enough. This realization now led to the need to immediately replace Siakam's scoring output and shield role to Ingram. Ingram had all the cards, so while the amount is less than Pascal per year, we only get 2 years of that number and 3 if Ingram is bad (not a good outcome for us).

As for Agbaji and Walter. Sure, they are depth. How difficult is it to acquire 3&D depth? Good teams are good at doing this cheaply and consistently. It shouldn't be baked into the deal. If Agbaji is that good he'll be unaffordable to us by the time we need him to produce.

I wasn’t a fan of how the organization treated Siakam in his last ~12 months in Toronto either (calling him selfish, sticking him in the corner as if he’s a 4th/5th option at the start of Darko’s tenure, openly shopping him to make room for Scottie as the franchise player, etc.), but that doesn’t change the fact that they got a very comparable player — who again, is younger and cheaper plus a better three-level scorer albeit a more injury prone guy — while adding two other cost-controlled, young bench pieces. This trade tree has very little downside to it. Siakam clearly wasn’t valued as much around the league as he should have been (remember the Wiggins + Wiseman + Kuminga rumours coming off an All-NBA season?) and we were going nowhere with him in our current state while Ingram has top ~10 scoring option potential; 23/5/5 on 58 TS% over 300+ games in New Orleans is nothing to scoff at — especially considering he’s just getting into his prime years now. I think he can be even better and/or more efficient in Toronto too.

Agbaji and JKW absolutely should be baked into the deal. We drafted JKW with the 2024 1st we acquired from the Pacers while we flipped another 1st acquired from the Pacers to get Agbaji a few weeks after the Siakam trade. If Agbaji ends up getting a contract in the MLE range (<15 M/year) for 26/27 and beyond, we’d only be paying ~5M more for Ingram + Agbaji + JKW as we would have for Siakam in 26/27. And when it comes to the cap crunch, the majority of our current core will be an expiring contract in the same season (Ingram + RJ + Poeltl will be earning ~90M in 26/27). You’re acting like Agbaji is going to command an OG-like contract and it would be impossible to fit his 10-15M into our payroll lol.

[brownbobcat]

Not sure what your point is. Are you saying the talent in the Raptors team is similar to Wizzards?

Also: If you think that the Raptors will tank for a few seasons, you must be a new fan. Based on the last few years, I can tell you they are opportunistic tankers I.e. they'll do it if and only if they clearly cannot make the play-in. If you think otherwise you'll get your hopes up for nothing.

I don't know if it's the owners or Masai but based on their history we're lucky if they tank at all.

I'm saying it's a distinction without a difference, both teams suck.

Also, he's ironically very wrong about the Wizards anyway. They weren't trying to tank before, they were trying make the playoffs with a mid-3 in Beal/Porzingis/Kuzma - just like he wants Toronto to do.

When did I say they were tanking before. lol go back and read what i said. I clearly told you to go be a wizards fan because they have a multi year tank coming up which is what you want to watch and cheer for. So go fawn over their draft picks.

Again, the irony is completely lost on you. The Wizards tried to do a half tank and it got them nowhere because their best player was not a star - and they doubly screwed themselves by not realizing this a year earlier and getting in on the Wemby draft.

[youngRAPZ]

I'm saying it's a distinction without a difference, both teams suck.

Also, he's ironically very wrong about the Wizards anyway. They weren't trying to tank before, they were trying make the playoffs with a mid-3 in Beal/Porzingis/Kuzma - just like he wants Toronto to do.

When did I say they were tanking before. lol go back and read what i said. I clearly told you to go be a wizards fan because they have a multi year tank coming up which is what you want to watch and cheer for. So go fawn over their draft picks.

Again, the irony is completely lost on you. The Wizards tried to do a half tank and it got them nowhere because their best player was not a star - and they doubly screwed themselves by not realizing this a year earlier and getting in on the Wemby draft.

Ok now I’m just going to stop replying because I have no idea why you are still talking about the wizards. It’s almost as if you can’t read. The only thing I said about the wizards is that they have a multi year tank coming up meaning this year and beyond and you should go be a fan of that team since that is what you want a multi year tank. I have no idea why you are now bringing up that they should’ve tanked for Wenby. Like I’m honestly disappointed in my self for going back and forth with you and you’re not even making a lick of sense.

You can either take my advice and go be happy watching the wizards tank, or not listen and be miserable for the rest of your life since the raptors under this ownership and management will never do a multi year tank on purpose!

Good day sir!


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[brownbobcat]

Ok now I’m just going to stop replying because I have no idea why you are still talking about the wizards. It’s almost as if you can’t read. The only thing I said about the wizards is that they have a multi year tank coming up meaning this year and beyond and you should go be a fan of that team since that is what you want a multi year tank. I have no idea why you are now bringing up that they should’ve tanked for Wenby. Like I’m honestly disappointed in my self for going back and forth with you and you’re not even making a lick of sense.

You can either take my advice and go be happy watching the wizards tank, or not listen and be miserable for the rest of your life since the raptors under this ownership and management will never do a multi year tank on purpose!

Good day sir!


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It's a simple concept called "no shortcuts". The Wizards tried doing what you're suggesting, and it backfired and led them back to tanking anyway.

[Jerry Lucas]

I wasn’t a fan of how the organization treated Siakam in his last ~12 months in Toronto either (calling him selfish, sticking him in the corner as if he’s a 4th/5th option at the start of Darko’s tenure, openly shopping him to make room for Scottie as the franchise player, etc.)

I'm curious to know, who else in the organization are you referring to outside of Darko?

If it was just Darko I feel like you would have said something like "I wasn’t a fan of how Darko treated Siakam in his last ~12 months in Toronto".

[pingpongrac]

I wasn’t a fan of how the organization treated Siakam in his last ~12 months in Toronto either (calling him selfish, sticking him in the corner as if he’s a 4th/5th option at the start of Darko’s tenure, openly shopping him to make room for Scottie as the franchise player, etc.)

I'm curious to know, who else in the organization are you referring to outside of Darko?

If it was just Darko I feel like you would have said something like "I wasn’t a fan of how Darko treated Siakam in his last ~12 months in Toronto".

Masai throwing shots at Siakam (and other core players) for being selfish prior to the start of the 23/24 season, thus the lack of any extension talks. Siakam clearly took offence to it as he promptly responded to it by saying he has never been selfish in his basketball career.

It was disappointing how Siakam was treated near the end of his Raptors tenure. He didn’t have quite the impact as Lowry, but he was tracking to be right up there in terms of franchise accomplishments while playing a vital role in our Championship.

[Merit]

I was among the many disappointed with the Pascal return. Now that the BI extension is taken care of it is a good time to regrade it, the full return determined (outside of 2 2nd rounders).

Out:
Pascal (plus McDaniels and Otto if you want to get technical)

In:
Brandon Ingram
Jakobe Walter
Ochai Agbagi
Jamal Shead
Portland 2025 Second round pick
Lakers 2026 Second round pick

Right now I would grade it B+ or B but a lot can change to swing this trade either way. Have to see how this works, we want to tank next year so don't be surprised if next year does not start amazing. We need to see at least 1 year of this team healthy, hopefully its next year and we are not this years Pelicans. Ingram is 27, if he stays healthy and Walter becomes good rotation player or a starter, this can move to A.

We aren’t tanking next year, but we are tanking this year. Understand your perspective though.

[Jerry Lucas]

I wasn’t a fan of how the organization treated Siakam in his last ~12 months in Toronto either (calling him selfish, sticking him in the corner as if he’s a 4th/5th option at the start of Darko’s tenure, openly shopping him to make room for Scottie as the franchise player, etc.)

I'm curious to know, who else in the organization are you referring to outside of Darko?

If it was just Darko I feel like you would have said something like "I wasn’t a fan of how Darko treated Siakam in his last ~12 months in Toronto".

Masai throwing shots at Siakam (and other core players) for being selfish prior to the start of the 23/24 season, thus the lack of any extension talks. Siakam clearly took offence to it as he promptly responded to it by saying he has never been selfish in his basketball career.

It was disappointing how Siakam was treated near the end of his Raptors tenure. He didn’t have quite the impact as Lowry, but he was tracking to be right up there in terms of franchise accomplishments while playing a vital role in our Championship.

Now I'm going to admit something to you pingpong. I knew you were referring to Masai. I just wanted you to outright say it so you would be on record with some Masai criticism, as you are usually one of the posters that act as if Masai bats 1000.

[Merit]

Siakam is still better.
Sure we did well on asset management, but I am unsure we are better record wise and future wise.

Ultimately we'll never know what offers we had 6 months to a year prior for Siakam and OG before we traded them and Fred before we didn't trade him.

Basically we moved Siakam for Ingram (3.5 years young), Walter and bench pieces.

OG for Quickley and Barrett (2 and 3 years younger).

Hard not to think we're probably going to be in the same place we were the 2-3 years ago, unless we end up with a really, really good player from this draft.

I think the ideal move would have been a proper 2-3 year tank but either Rogers wasn't okay with that or Masai didn't want to.

For me, the red line is not trading any of our own first rounders. Unless we get a guy who, for example, would have been the runaway Rookie of the Year this year, so in recent years that would be a Brandon Miller/Chet/Jalen Williams level guy, I hope we don't move any future firsts and we keep open the possibility of moving Scottie for 4 or 5 firsts, Poeltl for 1, Ingram for 1 and tanking properly with about 7-8 extra first rounders.

Basically feels like we gambled everything on this one tank season. Trading for an injured Ingram is the logical (and so I get the strategic logic) extension of this. So this year's draft just seems like a huge crossroads.

If we get a star, we're in good shape. If we don't, this group never sniffs contender status, and we shouldn't be okay with being the Kings (just happy not to be losing 50 games) or Bulls (cheap ownership). We won a title recently, had I don't know 7 playoff seasons surrounding it. I can deal with watching a young, tanking team for 3-4 seasons.

TLDR: If we get a top 4 pick and a star, then pretty much every move we made, including the Siakam trade, was good. If we don't, it was the wrong approach. That's not fair, or a good way to evaluate strategy or plan future moves, but it's the way it is.

Sure, having a star draft pick helps. It’s why we’re tanking. But the rest is entirely your opinion and isn’t what is happening. You and I can’t possibly know what a 3 year tank would have looked like, but why waste 3 years of prime Scottie? The mystery box isn’t always worth it.

[Merit]

You could argue it’s looking better, but Siakam is still the best player in the deal (extended to include whatever you want), so it’s hard to give that a high grade.

It’s completely arguable that Pascal is the best player vs. Ingram. Pascal has certainly been the healthier player. Brandon is miles better offensively than pascal and he’s 3 years+ younger.

[Merit]

A good number of people wanted Griffin and Bufkin and a first, and said Hunter, the only player that was obviously worth much, wasn't any good/did not want. All they seem to see is the age and the draft slot, and just about nothing else. So... yeah. There's that.

I was very much on board for Hunter. For the record, Jake Fischer said we were in on him this year as well. I want to put that out there because the three people I highlighted as most likely to make sense for us were wings who could shoot and play beside Scottie in Wiggins/Hunter/Ingram.

[Merit]

Sir who said anything about trading our pick? I said we can trade players at the draft to make space for the pick I seriously don’t understand what you’re talking about. Why would we trade the pick what makes you feel like we are trading the pick.

I only brought up the pick because you were talking about trades at the draft, I have no idea what "making space" means at all or why it's relevant. I'm going to spell out this point as clearly and slowly as I can:

1. You think 1 year of tanking is enough
2. Tanking is for getting a high draft pick and drafting a star
3. Toronto hasn't drafted anyone yet
4. Therefore, it is impossible to know if they have tanked "enough" right now

We literally added a former Allstar for what will likely be a non lottery pick in 26. We are still tanking this year what are you crying about even if we drop to 7 we can still get a good prospect mainly Maluach who would replace Jak and in time we can trade Jak. WE ARE NOT LOCKED IN TO ANYONE!!!!!

Regarding the young players lol can they have more than .5(all the rookies)-1.5(Dick) seasons of development before we determine what their ceiling is?

We do not know for certain what their ceiling is, but you can say that about every single young player in the league.
Hope and expectation are 2 completely different things.

I hope Gradey can become a star
I expect Gradey will not become a star

You can't just build a team on hope, which is why it doesn't make sense to stop tanking now. Ingram may be a better fit than Siakam, but he's not a significantly better player. Therefore, there's no reason to expect (there's that word again) that this team will be any better than when they had to trade Siakam away.

You clearly haven’t been paying attention to the nba. When a star demands out or is in an expiring salary situation teams tend to take what they can get.

Yah, those stars don't demand to come to Toronto.

Tanking *is* building your team with hope, in the biggest way.

How can you not see that?

He’s not interested in an outside perspective. He’s interested in the internal logic of his arguments. Like, good for you if your internal logic is sound - and even that’s debatable. The premise is still wrong.

Cue some big brained Mensa comment.

[Merit]

I've been pretty critical of many of the trades Bob-Sai has done. But since the infusion of young talent, BBIQ, and the addition of a top 8 pick this year.

I'm beginning to see the picture they're trying to paint. It's not the way I would have built the team(I'd tank-tank), but I see the vision and get it. We'll see next year if the results match.

Right - and this is fair. You might’ve wanted a tank and felt that a tank would result in better picks, but you’re content with the direction and as a fan are hoping for winning.

[pingpongrac]

I'm curious to know, who else in the organization are you referring to outside of Darko?

If it was just Darko I feel like you would have said something like "I wasn’t a fan of how Darko treated Siakam in his last ~12 months in Toronto".

Masai throwing shots at Siakam (and other core players) for being selfish prior to the start of the 23/24 season, thus the lack of any extension talks. Siakam clearly took offence to it as he promptly responded to it by saying he has never been selfish in his basketball career.

It was disappointing how Siakam was treated near the end of his Raptors tenure. He didn’t have quite the impact as Lowry, but he was tracking to be right up there in terms of franchise accomplishments while playing a vital role in our Championship.

Now I'm going to admit something to you pingpong. I knew you were referring to Masai. I just wanted you to outright say it so you would be on record with some Masai criticism, as you are usually one of the posters that act as if Masai bats 1000.

The bargain bin and FA signings from 20/21 to 23/24 were pretty terrible, I thought waiving Eubanks was a mistake, going from FVV to Schroder was pretty meh, etc. I have criticized Masai a bit, but the majority of his bad moves are so minuscule that it’s pointless to lose sleep over them. He has historically hit on the overwhelming majority of moves and seems to be getting us back on track to long-term success again with some savvy mid 2010s Masai-like moves (trading OG for IQ + RJ, essentially trading Siakam for Ingram, retooling our bench with youth in Agbaji + Gradey + JKW + Mogbo + Shead + Battle, reasonable extensions for Poeltl + IQ + Ingram, etc.).

[Merit]

Just as a general thought exercise (and genuine curiosity), how many trades where Team A gave up an All-Star and did not receive an All-Star in return would be considered a win for Team A?

Not a former All-Star, but one that made an All-Star appearance with their new team.

I’m sure there are some I’m missing, but none immediately come to mind.

In the moment or over time? Because there are examples where teams traded stars to tank and thus received an all star for their tanking.

[Godaddycurse]

Just as a general thought exercise (and genuine curiosity), how many trades where Team A gave up an All-Star and did not receive an All-Star in return would be considered a win for Team A?

Not a former All-Star, but one that made an All-Star appearance with their new team.

I’m sure there are some I’m missing, but none immediately come to mind.

In the moment or over time? Because there are examples where teams traded stars to tank and thus received an all star for their tanking.

carmelo from denver to new york?

[brownbobcat]

He’s not interested in an outside perspective. He’s interested in the internal logic of his arguments. Like, good for you if your internal logic is sound - and even that’s debatable. The premise is still wrong.

Cue some big brained Mensa comment.

I'm sure there's a point in there somewhere, not sure what. I very much have an outside perspective, that's why I'm not blown over by the potential of the young players on this team. Unlike some others, I actually realize that there are young players all across the NBA that show occasional flashes too.

[ATLTimekeeper]

Just as a general thought exercise (and genuine curiosity), how many trades where Team A gave up an All-Star and did not receive an All-Star in return would be considered a win for Team A?

Not a former All-Star, but one that made an All-Star appearance with their new team.

I’m sure there are some I’m missing, but none immediately come to mind.

Jesus.

1. Siakam is not a perennial all-star. It depends on whether his team is winning that season.
2. BI was an all-star, is three years younger than Siakam and is cheaper.
3. BI's game is MUCH more complementary with our best player.
4. We didn't just get BI, we got Ochai and Walter, both young promising players. And depending on how deep into the weeds you want to get with cap machinations, the trade gave us the flexibility to acquire Davion and the Portland second.
5. Trading Pascal allowed us to tank this year - a strong draft year, unlike last season where we missed on a chance to draft, uh, Reed Sheppard ?- which will give us yet another young promising piece. Maybe even a star/superstar.

So yeah, not a bad trade.

Let's not forget that Jamal Murray has never been an all-star or made an all-nba team... There's more to player eval than simply listing achievements.

Pascal is talented. The problem was how he wanted to play while on this team. He made numerous comments about wanting to be a star wing. Last season when his touches went down under Darko, he seemed dissatisfied and the fanbase was incensed. Look at the tracking data with Indiana:

1. This is Pascal's most efficient and impactful season since 2019
2. His time of possession is nearly a third of what it was in 22/23. From 5.9 minutes to 2.1.
3. His touches are 2/3s of what they were in 22/23. From low 80s to mid 50s
4. And naturally, with these changes there's far less self creation. He's been assisted on a larger percentage of his looks.

Nobody wanted this when he was in Toronto. Although he was always an elite finisher masquerading as a shot creator.

BI has been a more efficient shot creator to this point with a similar self-creation. It seems pretty clear that BI is bought into what Darko wants to run so it seems reasonable to expect a similar spike in efficiency. Regardless Brandon is younger, cheaper, and a better 3 level scorer.

Okay, have to step in so you don't get away with this nonsense

1. He's not the most important offensive player now. It makes sense.
2. And it was 2.7 under Darko in Toronto last year. He changed his play-style for Darko in a UFA year. How he wanted to play maybe coincided with who was coaching, and who his teammates were. Take a look at that first.
3. See 2, and note that this also has to factor in his minutes going down from (league leading) 37.4 to 34.7 to 33.2.
4. See 2. His % of unassisted baskets went way down under Darko as well.

Pascal wanted to stay here, but Masai closed the door on him and he had to go looking elsewhere. This is what happened with Ingram in NO. The only difference is Pascal made the smart decision to pair up with a better offensive player than him, and the Raptors are importing Ingram to be the best offensive player and hide all of Scottie's warts. This could work out because Scottie, turns out, is mostly warts on offense and has shown immense potential on defense. I just hope people aren't fooled into thinking that Ingram is suddenly going to change how he's played his whole life. Pascal was someone that had to change how he played from college, to breaking into the league, to playing with the Bench Mob, to playing alongside Kawhi, to playing Nick Nurse's gimmicky defense, to playing nice with Darko, to playing with Haliburton. He has already shown flexibility. Ingram is showing openness in a press conference. We need to hope he backs it up.