Who are you taking in the West? OKC or the field?

[Patches Perry]

OKC has losses this year against Dallas, Minnesota, San Antonio, Golden State, Houston and Denver. Lakers also beat them some games last season. Clippers also almost beat them in a game back in the November which seems to suggest OKC would have problems with them in a series.

This OKC team has never been past the 2nd round, therefore it stands to reason that they are probably incapable of getting past the 2nd round.

I think I read a stat the other day that no team who had previously not been past the 2nd round has even broken through and got past the 2nd round in the future. Big if true.

[cjmcallist]

Field is obviously smart money, but people are overlooking OKC here.

[Optms]

OKC has losses this year against Dallas, Minnesota, San Antonio, Golden State, Houston and Denver. Lakers also beat them some games last season. Clippers also almost beat them in a game back in the November which seems to suggest OKC would have problems with them in a series.

This OKC team has never been past the 2nd round, therefore it stands to reason that they are probably incapable of getting past the 2nd round.

I think I read a stat the other day that no team who had previously not been past the 2nd round has even broken through and got past the 2nd round in the future. Big if true.

If not them then who? Don't tell me Dallas. Luka is gone. So they aren't going to repeat. The west is wide open per usual. But OKC has the best odds. Furthermore, they were without Chet for the majority of those losses you mentioned. So it's meaningless to evaluate them based on those. Them getting bounced last year in round 2 sure, but that won't happen again. Simply because Luka isn't on Dallas anymore.

Every other team has bigger question marks.

[DusterBuster]

Field is the better bet, OKC is a classic - amazing regular season, awful post season.

[runtmc]

Based on some google searching, in NBA history, the #1 seed has made the finals 90 times, non #1 seed 66 times. This data set I think goes back to the 50s, so Im not sure how that breakdown changes in more modern times. But that would put their odds naively at around 60%, but OKC is significantly better than a typical #1 seed.

The #1 seed over the last 20 years has averaged ~61 wins, and OKC is on pace for 67 wins currently, much better than typical, and would tie them for the 7th best record all time. Of the 13 teams that have won 67 or more games, 3 failed to make the finals (2016 SA, 2007 DAL, 1973 BOS), which would put their odds at ~77%. Also, in 2016 both GS and SA won 67+ games that season, so it was a guarantee at least 1 of them would not make the finals.

Then, in terms of point differential, of the top 10 teams in NBA history by point differential (not including this season), there have been 7 champs (1972 LAL, 1971 MIL, 1996 CHI, 2017 GS, 2024 BOS, 1997 CHI, 1992 CHI), 1 conference champ but lost in finals (2016 GS), and 2 that failed to make the finals (1972 MIL, 2016 SA). That would puts their odds of making the finals at ~80%. OKC currently has the best point differential ever in NBA history (and interestingly, CLE this season would also finish top 10 all time). A side note, the 5 best point differentials ever all went on to be NBA champs.

So if I was betting? Id put their odds somewhere around 75-80% of making it to the finals, so Id definitely take them over the field. #1 seeds apparently make the finals around 60% of the time, but the good #1 seeds are in that 75-80% range, and OKC is not only clearly head and shoulders better than everyone in the West, but one of the best teams of all time. Theyre in the running for the best defensive team ever, and SGA is having one of the best individual seasons in NBA history. I like their chances.

[Los_29]

One thing people forget about is OKC faced a team in the first round last year that currently has 13 wins. Pelicans were hit hard with injuries and just a bad team overall.

OKC is likely going to get pushed much harder in the first round this year. There should be no easy matchups.

With that said, OKC played Dallas very tough. They can hang with anyone and are an excellent team.

[Jaqua92]

Denver is going to the finals

[Wingy]

Denver is going to the finals

Not the odds on favorite thing to happen, but not exactly bold.

Playoff Murray shows up (dude just dropped 55), and any single role player (or by committee) has a good series or two, and it’s really not hard to imagine.

[KGDirkTD_Fan]

I can't figure out if the West is going to be an unpredictable crap shoot or OKC just winning it all. I didn't have the Wolves beating the Nuggets or Mavs going to the finals last year.