Cooper Flagg

[donato]

Why are we comparing an 18.5 year old with a 23 year old? Compare him against other draft prospects and those qualifiers. Nobody cares if he's "the best" in college or not.

[12footrim]

We need an update from you. Flagg's production and efficiency is higher than what you predicted/expected, and I think most of your arguments now are hard to defend, but maybe you still disagree. I think it's very-very hard to argue against him being a top 5 college player today.

Here is my podcast about this very subject, if you want to hear the arguments.

https://open.spotify.com/episode/5Qxxzhgs4Y7XIeYLyQ9iK1?si=s5v9YejfRMuClvxDorLfzg

Basically I projected Flagg to have a 23 PER, 58% true shooting vs the 40th defensive SOS in the preseason on my site and here, and he's at a 29.1 PER, 59% true shooting vs the 63rd ranked defenses. For perspective, the last 7 POY's averaged a 37 PER, 65% TS, vs mostly top 20 defenses. Some like Edey were against top 5 defense. Broome currently has a 34.4 PER vs the #1 defensive SOS even as he's been hurt multiple times and not 100%. There isn't really a comparison statistically for all the people that want to make it seem like there is. I projected Broome #1 in the preseason while most had him around 5th.

Yes Flagg is better than what I thought, but still behind several players in my model I talk about who have better statistical impact vs objectively better competition. What people fail to acknowledge is how bad the ACC is. It might get 3 NCAA bids out of 18 teams and even 2 of them are not good seeds, and that's what he is lighting up. Basically a MWC level mid major conference. He's played easier defenses than several mid majors infact. Before he got to this pathetic conference he had a 23 PER, .505% true shooting, vs a top 15 defensive SOS. The level of competition matters IMO, and he's basically beating up mid major level teams.

Thank you for the detailed reply, and I will definitely check out your podcast. NCAA is still my blind spot compared to the NBA, but I have become more invested in recent years. Checked out the pod quickly, your voice is okay, that's good thing it's not annoying. You are an intelligent guy, but I feel you are a little bit biased against this particular player. What do you expect in the Madness, if he could really play well and make the final four maybe, could that change your opinion, or since that's a small sample size, you would still feel that his current production and upside is potentially overrated in an NBA context?

Thanks, I just started the podcast this year, so hopefully, it will get better. Flagg has been better than I expected, certainly. I’ve seen about 15 of his games. I still think there are better college players this year. Broome is on a tier by himself, then there are three or four others I consider a tier better statistically. Flagg is in a tier with guys like Harper, Javon Small, Braden Smith, etc., who are debatable, in my opinion. So, he’s in the 5 to 10 range for me. This was always about who would be the best this year in college, not long-term NBA potential in my statments. I still think he should be 1 or 2 in the draft, just like in the preseason.

Flagg has certainly shown more offensive skills than most of us expected, even on this thread. Most of us thought he would come in blocking shots and getting steals at a higher rate with perhaps less usage. It’s been the opposite—he has the ball a lot, takes a lot of shots, and his stocks (steals and blocks) have been somewhat disappointing for those expecting 3 blocks and 2 steals per game.

Also, I think most people expected him to play small forward alongside Malauch and Brown. However, he’s played almost zero SF. Last week, about 97% of his minutes for the year were at PF/C, and even 10% of Dukes last five games were at center, according to KenPom. I think this has helped him offensively going against bigger/slower players and given him more rebounding and shot-blocking opportunities. I didn’t anticipate that when projecting his stats, but he’s been better at it than I expected.

He is stronger than you’d expect a 6'9", 205-pound, 17-year-old to be. I thought he’d have to play more SF, where his skills might look worse against smaller, quicker defenders or that he’d get pushed around by bigger guys. However, he holds his own well. He’s really good at everything, but nothing jumps off the page as elite—like crazy rebounding, blocks, or true shooting. He seems to rank around 10th to 20th in the ACC in all the key percentages like rebounds, blocks, steals, and assists. The defense is great, but Duke operates more as a defensive collective, in my opinion. Brown even has a better defensive rating. It’s not like Anthony Davis blocking five shots per game and being 8 points better in defensive rating than all of his teammates, clearly anchoring the defense.

That’s my assessment and where I think I got it wrong.

[Special_Puppy]

Top 4 player in College Basketball

[12footrim]

Why are we comparing an 18.5 year old with a 23 year old? Compare him against other draft prospects and those qualifiers. Nobody cares if he's "the best" in college or not.

Cooper Flagg vs Johni Broome who is the best player in CBB is a debate on CBS and their podcast nearly every episode. Most any podcast talking about Flagg in any context other than the draft. His age was always part of why I thought he wouldn't be the best player in college basketball and Broome would be with his proven history already. It's really not much of a debate statistically even with Broome playing through 2 injuries that cause him to miss games.

[LakerLegend]

Top 4 player in College Basketball

Who are the other 3?

[Zukkoyaki]

Dude is going to be an elite glue guy at worst. I see something like Tayshaun Prince as absolute floor.

[tmorgan]

Dude is going to be an elite glue guy at worst. I see something like Tayshaun Prince as absolute floor.

You did say “absolute floor”, so I’m ok with that, but Flagg is going to do so much more than Tayshaun ever could. A lot of it is frame… Flagg is going to look a lot more like Karl Malone than Tayshaun by the time he’s 23. Not that big, of course, but you get the idea.

Flagg will be fun to watch develop. I agree with those that see 1st Team All-NBA, easy HOF ceiling… and I also agree with those that question the SEC and think he might start rather slowly and not even be an All-Star on his rookie contract. He has a lot of tools and the right mindset, but also a lot to work on. It’s easy to get too caught up in the hype, and he’s definitely going 1st in the draft, but expectations have started to get unrealistic (to me).

[FrodoBaggins]

Here is my podcast about this very subject, if you want to hear the arguments.

https://open.spotify.com/episode/5Qxxzhgs4Y7XIeYLyQ9iK1?si=s5v9YejfRMuClvxDorLfzg

Basically I projected Flagg to have a 23 PER, 58% true shooting vs the 40th defensive SOS in the preseason on my site and here, and he's at a 29.1 PER, 59% true shooting vs the 63rd ranked defenses. For perspective, the last 7 POY's averaged a 37 PER, 65% TS, vs mostly top 20 defenses. Some like Edey were against top 5 defense. Broome currently has a 34.4 PER vs the #1 defensive SOS even as he's been hurt multiple times and not 100%. There isn't really a comparison statistically for all the people that want to make it seem like there is. I projected Broome #1 in the preseason while most had him around 5th.

Yes Flagg is better than what I thought, but still behind several players in my model I talk about who have better statistical impact vs objectively better competition. What people fail to acknowledge is how bad the ACC is. It might get 3 NCAA bids out of 18 teams and even 2 of them are not good seeds, and that's what he is lighting up. Basically a MWC level mid major conference. He's played easier defenses than several mid majors infact. Before he got to this pathetic conference he had a 23 PER, .505% true shooting, vs a top 15 defensive SOS. The level of competition matters IMO, and he's basically beating up mid major level teams.

Thank you for the detailed reply, and I will definitely check out your podcast. NCAA is still my blind spot compared to the NBA, but I have become more invested in recent years. Checked out the pod quickly, your voice is okay, that's good thing it's not annoying. You are an intelligent guy, but I feel you are a little bit biased against this particular player. What do you expect in the Madness, if he could really play well and make the final four maybe, could that change your opinion, or since that's a small sample size, you would still feel that his current production and upside is potentially overrated in an NBA context?

Thanks, I just started the podcast this year, so hopefully, it will get better. Flagg has been better than I expected, certainly. I’ve seen about 15 of his games. I still think there are better college players this year. Broome is on a tier by himself, then there are three or four others I consider a tier better statistically. Flagg is in a tier with guys like Harper, Javon Small, Braden Smith, etc., who are debatable, in my opinion. So, he’s in the 5 to 10 range for me. This was always about who would be the best this year in college, not long-term NBA potential in my statments. I still think he should be 1 or 2 in the draft, just like in the preseason.

Flagg has certainly shown more offensive skills than most of us expected, even on this thread. Most of us thought he would come in blocking shots and getting steals at a higher rate with perhaps less usage. It’s been the opposite—he has the ball a lot, takes a lot of shots, and his stocks (steals and blocks) have been somewhat disappointing for those expecting 3 blocks and 2 steals per game.

Also, I think most people expected him to play small forward alongside Malauch and Brown. However, he’s played almost zero SF. Last week, about 97% of his minutes for the year were at PF/C, and even 10% of Dukes last five games were at center, according to KenPom. I think this has helped him offensively going against bigger/slower players and given him more rebounding and shot-blocking opportunities. I didn’t anticipate that when projecting his stats, but he’s been better at it than I expected.

He is stronger than you’d expect a 6'9", 205-pound, 17-year-old to be. I thought he’d have to play more SF, where his skills might look worse against smaller, quicker defenders or that he’d get pushed around by bigger guys. However, he holds his own well. He’s really good at everything, but nothing jumps off the page as elite—like crazy rebounding, blocks, or true shooting. He seems to rank around 10th to 20th in the ACC in all the key percentages like rebounds, blocks, steals, and assists. The defense is great, but Duke operates more as a defensive collective, in my opinion. Brown even has a better defensive rating. It’s not like Anthony Davis blocking five shots per game and being 8 points better in defensive rating than all of his teammates, clearly anchoring the defense.

That’s my assessment and where I think I got it wrong.

The reason why you got it wrong is because you take everything at face value and disregard/ignore all context. The nuance matters; the devil is in the details. Have to pay attention to the minutiae.

To you, Cooper was a 17 y/o, 6'9", 205-pound forward who would be too physically weak to compete against NIL-era super seniors. As if all 17-year-olds are physically the same and weight listings are always accurate and tell you how strong/physically capable a player is. Fixation on general numbers and not his actual unique physical details.

You ignored posters like me who told you that Flagg has a robust, wide-bodied frame with thick yet long limbs that gives him great strength beyond his listed weight. I compared his relative strength to Draymond and Rodman. Not to mention he has always displayed remarkable balance and the ability to absorb contact. Was there in high school. Just had to pay attention.

Did anyone honestly think he'd get physically bullied? One look and you'd see a broad-shouldered man child.

Another example where you took things too literally without acknowledging any context was Cooper's high school stats. You seriously tried to compare his SR stat line at Montverde to a bunch of other players as if you could make a one-to-one, apples-to-apples comparison. As if this was a good argument for why he'd struggle in college. Not like he won HS POY leading his team to an undefeated record against the best opposition at the HS level or anything...

Pedantic. That's the problem with your prospect analysis. The details you obsess over don't matter as much as you think they do. Or they don't mean what you think they do. Because you're missing the forest for the trees.

[12footrim]

Thank you for the detailed reply, and I will definitely check out your podcast. NCAA is still my blind spot compared to the NBA, but I have become more invested in recent years. Checked out the pod quickly, your voice is okay, that's good thing it's not annoying. You are an intelligent guy, but I feel you are a little bit biased against this particular player. What do you expect in the Madness, if he could really play well and make the final four maybe, could that change your opinion, or since that's a small sample size, you would still feel that his current production and upside is potentially overrated in an NBA context?

Thanks, I just started the podcast this year, so hopefully, it will get better. Flagg has been better than I expected, certainly. I’ve seen about 15 of his games. I still think there are better college players this year. Broome is on a tier by himself, then there are three or four others I consider a tier better statistically. Flagg is in a tier with guys like Harper, Javon Small, Braden Smith, etc., who are debatable, in my opinion. So, he’s in the 5 to 10 range for me. This was always about who would be the best this year in college, not long-term NBA potential in my statments. I still think he should be 1 or 2 in the draft, just like in the preseason.

Flagg has certainly shown more offensive skills than most of us expected, even on this thread. Most of us thought he would come in blocking shots and getting steals at a higher rate with perhaps less usage. It’s been the opposite—he has the ball a lot, takes a lot of shots, and his stocks (steals and blocks) have been somewhat disappointing for those expecting 3 blocks and 2 steals per game.

Also, I think most people expected him to play small forward alongside Malauch and Brown. However, he’s played almost zero SF. Last week, about 97% of his minutes for the year were at PF/C, and even 10% of Dukes last five games were at center, according to KenPom. I think this has helped him offensively going against bigger/slower players and given him more rebounding and shot-blocking opportunities. I didn’t anticipate that when projecting his stats, but he’s been better at it than I expected.

He is stronger than you’d expect a 6'9", 205-pound, 17-year-old to be. I thought he’d have to play more SF, where his skills might look worse against smaller, quicker defenders or that he’d get pushed around by bigger guys. However, he holds his own well. He’s really good at everything, but nothing jumps off the page as elite—like crazy rebounding, blocks, or true shooting. He seems to rank around 10th to 20th in the ACC in all the key percentages like rebounds, blocks, steals, and assists. The defense is great, but Duke operates more as a defensive collective, in my opinion. Brown even has a better defensive rating. It’s not like Anthony Davis blocking five shots per game and being 8 points better in defensive rating than all of his teammates, clearly anchoring the defense.

That’s my assessment and where I think I got it wrong.

The reason why you got it wrong is because you take everything at face value and disregard/ignore all context. The nuance matters; the devil is in the details. Have to pay attention to the minutiae.

To you, Cooper was a 17 y/o, 6'9", 205-pound forward who would be too physically weak to compete against NIL-era super seniors. As if all 17-year-olds are physically the same and weight listings are always accurate and tell you how strong/physically capable a player is. Fixation on general numbers and not his actual unique physical details.

You ignored posters like me who told you that Flagg has a robust, wide-bodied frame with thick yet long limbs that gives him great strength beyond his listed weight. I compared his relative strength to Draymond and Rodman. Not to mention he has always displayed remarkable balance and the ability to absorb contact. Was there in high school. Just had to pay attention.

Did anyone honestly think he'd get physically bullied? One look and you'd see a broad-shouldered man child.

Another example where you took things too literally without acknowledging any context was Cooper's high school stats. You seriously tried to compare his SR stat line at Montverde to a bunch of other players as if you could make a one-to-one, apples-to-apples comparison. As if this was a good argument for why he'd struggle in college. Not like he won HS POY leading his team to an undefeated record against the best opposition at the HS level or anything...

Pedantic. That's the problem with your prospect analysis. The details you obsess over don't matter as much as you think they do. Or they don't mean what you think they do. Because you're missing the forest for the trees.

I’ve gotten plenty right over the years. I pegged Edey as a first-round pick after his sophomore year when no one else had him being drafted until his senior year—and even then, many still had him in the second round on draft day or late first.

Flagg is SLIGHTLY better than I expected, but don't get carried away. Comparing him to Broome like so many are doing now is a joke and I had Broome as my top player and used him as the benchmark for a reason in all the examples in the preseason with Flagg and he blows him away.

Statistically, Flagg isn’t close to players like Kalkbrenner, Dickinson, or Kaufman-Renn, and Kam Jones especially once you adjust for the weak strength of schedule he's faced. You could also make a strong case for Toppin, Small, Omier, Goldin, Braden Smith, Harper, Dixon, and others being as good or better statistically too. The hype in comparison to them is still unjustified.

When Flagg faced tougher defensive competition (top 15 defensive SOS), he struggled—posting a .505 true shooting percentage. You think that dropping to 65th honestly has no affect on how he's looking now. He's slapping around a mid major league basically, of course he looks "strong". A lot of players would look strong vs this schedule.

He’s good, but he’s still not living up to the generational hype as the best freshman since LeBron you and others hyped him as. His season doesn’t even crack the top 15 freshman performances of the last 20 years statistically. He’s nowhere near the level of Zion, AD, or Beasley. I’ve done the research. They didn't play **** competition like this. The fact is, freshmen still aren’t dominating like they did in past either, and Montverde has produced its share of frontcourt disappointments with similar high school numbers in this era. This class is the outlier.

He’s SLIGHTLY better than I initially thought (again I projected 23 PER, 58% TS vs the 40th SOS, he's a 29 PER 59 TS, vs the 65th, but he’s still not the best player in college basketball this year like the world predicted in a landslide. He's not anywhere near the best freshmen this century crap either. Keep things in perspective and who he's actually doing this vs. He couldn't make a shot until he got to ACC play and it's worse than some mid major leagues of the past. Get some perspective on why he's looking strong now.

[Jcool0]

Read on Twitter

[Duke4life831]

He’s the 4th youngest player in college basketball and right now he’s the odds on favorite to win NPOY, where only KD, AD, and Zion are the only freshman to do that.

You can say the ACC is weak (which it is), but he is still playing in the final year of the extra Covid year of players. So there are 5th and 6th year seniors all over college basketball right now.

And if it was just an ACC thing. Why aren’t Ian Jackson, Jalil Bethea, and Drake Powell aren’t dominating as well? Those are the 6th, 7th, and 11th ranked freshmen coming into the year. And those guys are 20, 19, and 19. So 1-2 years older than Flagg and again, 5 star top 12 ranked guys.

Sometimes I just think it gets to the point where people over think this stuff

[zero rings]

Why are we comparing Flagg to 5th year college seniors like Broome? This is an NBA forum. We only care about how these guys project in the league.

Besides, can you imagine a 22 year old Flagg still playing college ball? He would be laughably dominant.

[Drygon]

Dude is going to be an elite glue guy at worst. I see something like Tayshaun Prince as absolute floor.

I have a feeling your opinion will age terribly.

[12footrim]

He’s the 4th youngest player in college basketball and right now he’s the odds on favorite to win NPOY, where only KD, AD, and Zion are the only freshman to do that.

You can say the ACC is weak (which it is), but he is still playing in the final year of the extra Covid year of players. So there are 5th and 6th year seniors all over college basketball right now.

And if it was just an ACC thing. Why aren’t Ian Jackson, Jalil Bethea, and Drake Powell aren’t dominating as well? Those are the 6th, 7th, and 11th ranked freshmen coming into the year. And those guys are 20, 19, and 19. So 1-2 years older than Flagg and again, 5 star top 12 ranked guys.

Sometimes I just think it gets to the point where people over think this stuff

Who cares if he's young, that shouldn't factor at all into who is the best player in college basketball.

The fact this era of CBB was so much older with COVID super seniors and keeping players longer, especially frontcourt players, with NIL and consolidating talent with free multi transfer was the biggest theory of my case that he wouldn't be. You are right freshman haven't performed well post covid since NIL, especially from Montverde. These were all points. He's been good, but the season he is having is nothing like the last 7 players of the year. They averaged 22ppg, 11rpg, 1.7apg 37 PER, .65% TS, vs the 29th defensive SOS. That's with a big Toppin outlier schedule, it's 17th defensive SOS without him.

This is all still over hype about a guy beating up on the 65th ranked defenses and still not even putting up per possession stats and efficiency in the same gallaxy as normal POY winners lately or the guy who should be the landslide favorite and that should have been going into the season like Broome. The same people who were overhyping Flagg preseason as the landslide POY are still doing it and are the ones voting. Doesn't make him like the others. They were even still doing it when he had a .505 true shooting heading into 2025 and got to the ACC part of the schedule.

[Duke4life831]

He’s the 4th youngest player in college basketball and right now he’s the odds on favorite to win NPOY, where only KD, AD, and Zion are the only freshman to do that.

You can say the ACC is weak (which it is), but he is still playing in the final year of the extra Covid year of players. So there are 5th and 6th year seniors all over college basketball right now.

And if it was just an ACC thing. Why aren’t Ian Jackson, Jalil Bethea, and Drake Powell aren’t dominating as well? Those are the 6th, 7th, and 11th ranked freshmen coming into the year. And those guys are 20, 19, and 19. So 1-2 years older than Flagg and again, 5 star top 12 ranked guys.

Sometimes I just think it gets to the point where people over think this stuff

Who cares if he's young, that shouldn't factor at all into who is the best player in college basketball.

The fact this era of CBB was so much older with COVID super seniors and keeping players longer, especially frontcourt players, with NIL and consolidating talent with free multi transfer was the biggest theory of my case that he wouldn't be. You are right freshman haven't performed well post covid since NIL, especially from Montverde. These were all points. He's been good, but the season he is having is nothing like the last 7 players of the year. They averaged 22ppg, 11rpg, 1.7apg 37 PER, .65% TS, vs the 29th defensive SOS. That's with a big Toppin outlier schedule, it's 17th defensive SOS without him.

This is all still over hype about a guy beating up on the 65th ranked defenses and still not even putting up per possession stats and efficiency in the same gallaxy as normal POY winners lately or the guy who should be the landslide favorite and that should have been going into the season like Broome. The same people who were overhyping Flagg preseason as the landslide POY are still doing it and are the ones voting. Doesn't make him like the others. They were even still doing it when he had a .505 true shooting heading into 2025 and got to the ACC part of the schedule.

What do you mean who cares how young he is? That is a pretty big factor in the discussion around Flagg. I agree age shouldn’t factor in who wins NPOY.

But that isn’t the only discussion people are having with Flagg. It’s the fact that he’s in the discussion for NPOY while just turning 18 at the end of December. And he’s playing in a year that is filled with 5th and 6th year seniors, is extremely impressive.

It’s impressive just from a college standpoint. Because freshmen are rarely this good, especially when they started their freshman year at 17 years old.

Then from an NBA draft prospect perspective. He just turned 18 and is playing against 21-23 year olds the the majority of each game. And he’s dominating them.

Even bringing up the ACC is weak, this Duke team clearly isn’t. He leads Duke in pts, stls, rbs, ast, and blocks. No player in the history of Duke has done that.

If you want to keep this discussion directly to, is he the NPOY. Sure you can make the argument for Broome. But I know he’s the odds favorite right now and last time I checked, Kenpom’s rankings had him #1.

But again the fact that he’s in the discussion and he’s leading a top 5 Duke team in every major statistical category (while again being the 4th youngest player in college basketball). Is the reason why he has so much hype.

[thamadkant]

Cooper Flagg looks like a taller longer Hayward.... ethnicity aside, they play and move similarly.

[HotRocks34]

Why are we comparing an 18.5 year old with a 23 year old? Compare him against other draft prospects and those qualifiers. Nobody cares if he's "the best" in college or not.

Correct. The main interest here seems to be what a player's potential is for the NBA.

Jimmer Fredette was once College Player of the Year.

No one cares.

Fredette was the player of the year in 2011, the same year he got drafted.

Kawhi was also drafted in 2011. He was not the player of the year. He was a couple of years younger than Jimmer.

The rest is history.

[LakerLegend]

Do we have any press accounts of how Flagg performed when playing with the US select team?

[FrodoBaggins]

NPOY is close enough that you can give it to Flagg or Broome and it wouldn't be controversial. It's really about value generated which to me is impact + accumulation. Broome has faced a stronger SOS but he's also played fewer games.

I give Cooper the tiebreak because I think he's the better player of the two. I think he's more valuable to a wider number of teams because of how well-rounded his game is. More portable. He's benefitting less from his circumstance than Johni is IMO. If you could run a simulation where you stuck both players on every D1 team and then averaged out the impact Flagg would come out on top.

As ridiculous as that hypothetical sounds it gets my point across regarding a player's absolute "goodness." And I think it's a sound criteria to determine a tiebreak/50-50 type of situation that this NPOY race is.

[Ice Man]

Sometimes I just think it gets to the point where people over think this stuff

You mean, as with all those arguments about how Luka's European success wouldn't translate to the NBA? Yeah.

I mean, it's possible that Flagg won't be all that, but comparisons to guys like Tayshaun Prince won't get us anywhere. If Flagg is to disappoint, then the correct player comparison needs to be an NBA guy who has Flagg's characteristics -- a two-way player who defends, runs the floor, rebounds, assists, and draws a ton of free throws.

The only guys I can think of who fit that description are All Stars -- Tatum, Butler, and so forth. But no doubt there are some lower level versions in NBA history. I was thinking of Danny Ferry, but nope too finesse and crappy defense.

Lamar Odom and Gordon Hayward are better comparisons, although Flagg is in every way better than those guys were as college freshman. He's also a bully inside, which they were not.