babyjax13 wrote:winforlose wrote:babyjax13 wrote:I just don't understand this line of thinking that he is going to go from a 12 to 15ppg scorer to suddenly becoming a 25ppg scorer on the same efficiency and that this expectation should be priced in to his value.
I think there are at least 2 maybe 3 flaws in your argument. I will lay out all 3, but the 3rd might be stretching beyond your point.
1. If a player shoots 10 shots a game then his efficiency is based on how many points he scores for those 10 shots. If that player scores 10 points on 10 shots that is bad. If he scores 15 on 10 then that is very good if not great. If they score 20 on ten consistently that is special. Jaden’s issue is the shot selection. By reducing his 3s and increasing his 2s he is able to hit more shots and therefore score more.
Yes, the kinds of shots you take matter. Look at Collin Sexton, he cut a lot of contested midrange shots from his distribution and went from a 52-57%TS player, to a guy who has shot over 60%TS for three seasons in a row. That is exceptional for a small guard and likely did increase his value, albeit I would argue not a substantial amount on the trade market. 2. Jaden’s efficiency inside the arc MUST by its very nature necessitate an increase in both shot attempts and offensive actions designed to get Jaden open in his spots. Jaden shot 8 of 12 from 2 last night, and 12 of 17 from 2 during his 30 point game on the 8th of this month. Increases volume combined with high efficiency is the key to improved scoring. This is going from offensive priority 4 or 5 to offensive priority 2 or 3.
Yes, we saw his efficiency rise in January, and we saw his volume rise in February (with a dip from his unsustainable January efficiency). That is quite excellent, but we have seen NOTHING to indicate that he scales up to a first or a second option, and what we have seen suggests that he will be less efficient on higher volumes than he can be on lower volume which makes sense - you can't be as selective if you are shooting more and you also need to self-create. 3. This may be beyond the scope of your point, but it is important. Jaden’s assist numbers are also climbing, as are his put backs, (with an increase in offensive rebounding.) That ability to create points beyond just efficient shooting is a catalyst to changing the role and increasing the usage of a young player. If that young player happens to be a defensive specialist with the track record of a Jaden McDaniels, then that raises not only short term trade value, but long term trade value.
Honestly I am a bit lost. My point is that teams are not going to assess players based on unlikely outcomes. A likely outcome is that if he can increase his volume substantially, his efficiency will not improve. Teams also may not believe that his volume can increase substantially. If he is just a tertiary guy on offense who is useful but not transformative his value is going to be based on what he is - an average offensive player who is an elite defender and paid appropriately. I don't think teams are looking at his contract and thinking it is a steal.
I'm a bit lost re: what your point is, so did my best to respond above.
1. Jaden almost never has offense run for him. Even with all the better offensive players out, Finch is almost allergic to coaching well offensively. What you are seeing from Jaden is the rejection of the typical 3 and D role and an increase of attacking off the close out or simply driving on his man and raising up. Jaden is not a good 3 point shooter this year, even when open. You talk about Sexton and his shooting improvement, but Sexton is primarily an offensive player. When a defensive player redefines their role as an efficient two way player, that will of course increase his value. Add to that Jaden being all NBA caliber defense and being able to guard 1-4 and small ball 5, that is something even more valuable.
2. Ant will always be the first option. Naz should be the 2nd. Jaden is not likely to get above the 2nd option, and probably would be best as a 3rd option. Jaden has been creating more offense for himself and others which is why his assist numbers are increasing. Regarding his own shot you see him attack off the dribble and do various iterations of either a pull up or fade away. Texas Chuck’s point is that we need to see more of it over a sustained period, and I agree. But this has shown the coaching staff and his teammates what Jaden can do. It also tells ownership and the FO not to move Jaden for less, hence the increase in asking price. Turning Jaden into prime Jaden is a process, but these consist performances are demanding long term investment by the team in Jaden.
3. Aside from the fact that is shooting percentages are increasing despite a significant increase in shot volume on multiple game sample size, his other value markers are looking better. Rebounding more, boxing out more, adding more second chance points, assisting more, blocking more shots, ect… Value in trade is function of value to winning. If Jaden is paid to be an elite defender with some offense, and becomes a very good shooter, who also rebounds and passes well and plays elite defense, that will increase his value. But his contract is locked in for 4 more years. So if this year he simply earned his money, next year he might exceed it. The year after (assuming year over year improvements as he approaches his prime,) his play likely exceeds his contracts value and thus he is underplayed relative to performance (in other words a value contract.)
Texas Chuck is saying let’s not get carried away by a few good games. I am saying we are watching Jaden change roles and mature in real time. It is sustainable because this new role fits his actual skill set. The conversation is about trade value, and as Jaden’s internal value (the value the team assigns him,) rises, the cost to acquire him will rise. As his play continues to prove the internal value change is accurate, what other teams offer for him will rise accordingly.
TLDR Internal keeps him here, external value rises when he proves it.
