2025 NBA Draft Prospect Part 3

[Psubs]

The more I see Podz' resurgence out of his short lived Soph slump the more excited I get about what VJ can bring to the table being cut from a similar cloth.

Lowkey Podz finished a t60 player in the NBA his rookie season according to certain advanced metrics. Guards who dish dimes, protect the ball, force turnovers and get second chance opps are studs. Then just how big of a stud will depend on how high they can get that TS% and I'm pretty optimistic with VJ.

I would be excited for a Jakobe/VJ pairing.

[Yallbecrazy]

I'm not even trying to exaggerate here, Asa Newell basically has 0 red flags in his production right now. Some might point to his low AST% (7 per Torvik), but to me his low TO% in combination with his respectable USG% (22.4 per Torvik) offsets it, because his AST/TO ratio (0.9 per Torvik) is better than numerous past prospects who have hit in the draft with AST/TO ratios in the 0.6-0.8 range. IMO a completely undraftable AST/TO ratio is at or below 0.5 (Maluach and Ace Bailey territory).

His free throw rate was previously too low for his position and measurements, but that has been shooting up and is now closer to 35% than 30%, after previously being close to 25% early in the college season.

My main concerns with him earlier in year were ftr, def reb and vanilla hc scoring. He has remedied one of them a bit and shown some flashes of moves that arent just touch shots at the rim using size.

His production the past couple of years has been odd. I would suppose the hope is that he turns into boston horford way down the line or something. Anyway he is growing on me.

Actually horford is a very bad comp. But perhaps in the role sense. Idk really, will really need to think hard about him.

I'm honestly not sure what to make of his low dREB%. On one hand it could definitely be seen as a concern, but on the other hand his oREB% is crazy high, which makes his total REB% look respectable.

defensive rebounding is the most overrated stat for college prospects. It is a major factor in BPM and if you could take it completely out of BPM I would rate BPM much more highly. High dReb rates could be guys hunting the ball and not boxing out, it could be like Bosh in his early years with the Raptors where he wasn't very good at it, but the rest of the team was so bad that someone had to get them.
Low rates could be due to boxing out more further from the basket or often being the primary defender and not getting the opportunity.

[grant101]

Newell I'm warming up to a bit but I need more time to figure him out.

I'm not even trying to exaggerate here, Asa Newell basically has 0 red flags in his production right now. Some might point to his low AST% (7 per Torvik), but to me his low TO% in combination with his respectable USG% (22.4 per Torvik) offsets it, because his AST/TO ratio (0.9 per Torvik) is better than numerous past prospects who have hit in the draft with AST/TO ratios in the 0.5-0.8 range. IMO a completely undraftable AST/TO ratio is below 0.5 (Maluach and Ace Bailey territory).

His free throw rate was previously too low for his position and measurements, but that has been shooting up and is now closer to 35% than 30%, after previously being close to 25% early in the college season.

Newell is by no means a bad prospect, or even one that I’d consider busting. I think he’ll be good in the NBA.

I think the thing with him is how boring he is, so a lot of folks don’t notice him. In that regard, he’s a Raptor lol. He’s just solid and he’ll get the job done. He’s just not an exciting pick, which means absolutely nothing in the grand scheme of things.

He would be an Ed Davis type of pick. Perfectly fine replacement-level, complimentary player. A 4-sized 5 with little extra to his game. No stand out skills. His block rate is also not great. Not sure what he adds to this team that we couldn’t get elsewhere

[Psubs]

https://www.noceilingsnba.com/p/rasheer-fleming-when-fun-flashes

Per Synergy, Fleming ranks in the 96th percentile in overall points per possession (PPP), the 88th percentile in transition, the 93rd percentile as the roll man, the 100th percentile on cuts, the 92nd percentile on all jumpers, the 82nd percentile shooting off the catch, and the 90th percentile scoring at the rim. That is bonkers levels of efficiency. If you look closely, there’s a common theme among all of those numbers and play/shot types. All of them are in a play-finishing role.

Oneyka Okongwu was drafted 6th overall and really the first few years as a pro were developmental, so I won't hold those against Fleming. O, is 6'8 with massive wingspan. R, has similar wingspan and if a legit 6'9 would be a good enough PF/C that can hit the 3 (FT shooting is trending upwards).

[Psubs]

I'm not even trying to exaggerate here, Asa Newell basically has 0 red flags in his production right now. Some might point to his low AST% (7 per Torvik), but to me his low TO% in combination with his respectable USG% (22.4 per Torvik) offsets it, because his AST/TO ratio (0.9 per Torvik) is better than numerous past prospects who have hit in the draft with AST/TO ratios in the 0.5-0.8 range. IMO a completely undraftable AST/TO ratio is below 0.5 (Maluach and Ace Bailey territory).

His free throw rate was previously too low for his position and measurements, but that has been shooting up and is now closer to 35% than 30%, after previously being close to 25% early in the college season.

Newell is by no means a bad prospect, or even one that I’d consider busting. I think he’ll be good in the NBA.

I think the thing with him is how boring he is, so a lot of folks don’t notice him. In that regard, he’s a Raptor lol. He’s just solid and he’ll get the job done. He’s just not an exciting pick, which means absolutely nothing in the grand scheme of things.

He would be an Ed Davis type of pick. Perfectly fine replacement-level, complimentary player. A 4-sized 5 with little extra to his game. No stand out skills. His block rate is also not great. Not sure what he adds to this team that we couldn’t get elsewhere

But a 6'11 Ed Davis...

[Yallbecrazy]

Newell is by no means a bad prospect, or even one that I’d consider busting. I think he’ll be good in the NBA.

I think the thing with him is how boring he is, so a lot of folks don’t notice him. In that regard, he’s a Raptor lol. He’s just solid and he’ll get the job done. He’s just not an exciting pick, which means absolutely nothing in the grand scheme of things.

He would be an Ed Davis type of pick. Perfectly fine replacement-level, complimentary player. A 4-sized 5 with little extra to his game. No stand out skills. His block rate is also not great. Not sure what he adds to this team that we couldn’t get elsewhere

But a 6'11 Ed Davis...

Newell doesn't really have any red flags which is a great positive. However, there's nothing that really stands out either. He has decent to good stats across the board, but not having any outlier strengths could also be considered a red flag in a way.
I'm reminded of Justise Winslow who was a great prospect and probably hit under his 20th percentile outcome as a pro. He was also a player who didn't really have any outlier strengths, except for 3pt shooting, but that was probably a variance mirage as his free throw shooting was a borderline red flag to balance it out.

I know Newell is a PF/C and Winslow was a SF, but the point remains that it is important for a high end prospect to do one or two things really, really well.

[Dalek]

I hate posting X videos because of Elon, but had to share this one that shows Joan Beringer's intriguing defense. Look at the combo of rim protection and controlled and fast closeouts on shooters. He has a frame that looks good at 18 and can add weight, and he has great mobility at 6'10/6'11.

You also have to take into account he is just 18 and has only been playing since age 15 and this is his first sniff of high level competition. He has some natural instincts and is a quick study which makes me think he is lottery worthy.

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[TorontoBarneys]

I hate posting X videos because of Elon

We've had Trump Derangement Syndrome for a while, now. I guess it's now also time for Elon Derangement Syndrome.

[grant101]

Newell is by no means a bad prospect, or even one that I’d consider busting. I think he’ll be good in the NBA.

I think the thing with him is how boring he is, so a lot of folks don’t notice him. In that regard, he’s a Raptor lol. He’s just solid and he’ll get the job done. He’s just not an exciting pick, which means absolutely nothing in the grand scheme of things.

He would be an Ed Davis type of pick. Perfectly fine replacement-level, complimentary player. A 4-sized 5 with little extra to his game. No stand out skills. His block rate is also not great. Not sure what he adds to this team that we couldn’t get elsewhere

But a 6'11 Ed Davis...

I seriously doubt Newell is 6’11, and even if he is, he doesn’t play like it. Davis was a more impactful post defender

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

He would be an Ed Davis type of pick. Perfectly fine replacement-level, complimentary player. A 4-sized 5 with little extra to his game. No stand out skills. His block rate is also not great. Not sure what he adds to this team that we couldn’t get elsewhere

But a 6'11 Ed Davis...

Newell doesn't really have any red flags which is a great positive. However, there's nothing that really stands out either. He has decent to good stats across the board, but not having any outlier strengths could also be considered a red flag in a way.
I'm reminded of Justise Winslow who was a great prospect and probably hit under his 20th percentile outcome as a pro. He was also a player who didn't really have any outlier strengths, except for 3pt shooting, but that was probably a variance mirage as his free throw shooting was a borderline red flag to balance it out.

I know Newell is a PF/C and Winslow was a SF, but the point remains that it is important for a high end prospect to do one or two things really, really well.

This is pretty much the issue I have. Perhaps there's enough upside as a shooter at his size and age to give him some multidimensionality on offense but I'm kind of having a hard time buying into him following any kind of development curve that would make him a featured guy. He could end up just being a glue guy starter at best. Any true goodness that comes from him seemingly will need to be tied to his shooting.

[Rapsfan07]

I'm not even trying to exaggerate here, Asa Newell basically has 0 red flags in his production right now. Some might point to his low AST% (7 per Torvik), but to me his low TO% in combination with his respectable USG% (22.4 per Torvik) offsets it, because his AST/TO ratio (0.9 per Torvik) is better than numerous past prospects who have hit in the draft with AST/TO ratios in the 0.5-0.8 range. IMO a completely undraftable AST/TO ratio is below 0.5 (Maluach and Ace Bailey territory).

His free throw rate was previously too low for his position and measurements, but that has been shooting up and is now closer to 35% than 30%, after previously being close to 25% early in the college season.

Newell is by no means a bad prospect, or even one that I’d consider busting. I think he’ll be good in the NBA.

I think the thing with him is how boring he is, so a lot of folks don’t notice him. In that regard, he’s a Raptor lol. He’s just solid and he’ll get the job done. He’s just not an exciting pick, which means absolutely nothing in the grand scheme of things.

He would be an Ed Davis type of pick. Perfectly fine replacement-level, complimentary player. A 4-sized 5 with little extra to his game. No stand out skills. His block rate is also not great. Not sure what he adds to this team that we couldn’t get elsewhere

Agreed.

[Dr. Nick]

i think i'm starting to hop onto the Derik Queen bandwagon. Not sure if he's the best fit on this roster, but man he has that special skill of a Sengun/Jokic type feel to the game.

[dballislife]

newell looks like a smaller mobley, and with less shooting and passing, which doesn't sound that great

[Psubs]

newell looks like a smaller mobley, and with less shooting and passing, which doesn't sound that great

I think slightly taller Bosh with less talent.

[dballislife]

newell looks like a smaller mobley, and with less shooting and passing, which doesn't sound that great

I think slightly taller Bosh with less talent.

maybe, but after the bagley disaster, scouts and gm's have been really hating on PF that cant play C and do not perimeter skills

[BoyzNTheHood]

newell looks like a smaller mobley, and with less shooting and passing, which doesn't sound that great

I think slightly taller Bosh with less talent.

I’d be surprised if he’s taller than Chris Bosh.

[Psubs]

newell looks like a smaller mobley, and with less shooting and passing, which doesn't sound that great

I think slightly taller Bosh with less talent.

I’d be surprised if he’s taller than Chris Bosh.

Chris Bosh seems to be measured at 6'11 (in shoes), I guess 6'9.5 barefoot. Does college measure in shoes too, where Asa is 6'11. I guess they look similar in height.

So just a poor man's Chris Bosh.

I think that Alex Condon is like Asa Newell with Draymond passing skills even though he started organized ball late.

[ATLTimekeeper]

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A 5th year senior really shouldn't be considered a peer on that list, but definitely worth a flier in the 2nd.

As long as you interpret it properly and cap Kalkbrenner as maxing out as a productive rotation player instead of a starter I think it's a very relevant list that brings to light skills that matter. Kalk has the size too and not spoken of is his extreme defensive discipline learned as a product of the creighton system.

I was more reacting to the comment about him being a lottery pick.

[Rapsfan07]

i think i'm starting to hop onto the Derik Queen bandwagon. Not sure if he's the best fit on this roster, but man he has that special skill of a Sengun/Jokic type feel to the game.

Yeah I see the same sort of thing

[BoyzNTheHood]

The Lakers will luck into Kalkbrenner, won’t they?