Bucks get more athletic with Avdija (and NAW...)

[babyjax13]

What do people think would be a fair offer for Avdija? He's like a fine 3rd/4th option who plays alright defense, is that worth multiple first round picks now?

I think about what he was traded for, a late lottery pick or = value. But that is a different question than what Portland would and/or should accept, considering that he is young and their best player. He can be a long-term piece for them and they don't know that about a late lottery pick.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

I don't know what the Blazer brass is thinking these days. I could be convinced that trading Advija would make sense as part of a bigger more complete rebuild, but he wouldn't be the first domino to fall and we wouldn't really consider it for anything significantly less than what we paid. I do want to see him under a different coach, I dunno if that says more about Billups or Deni though.

[Myth]

A lot of times teams don’t want to trade players because of sunk cost fallacy (I think passing on potentially better offers in the past for Grant and Simons may be why they haven’t traded them so far as their value has gone down), but with Deni when people don’t want to take back less than they traded him for, it is because he genuinely has been what we hoped for when we traded for him, so why would they accept less?

[wolves_89]

I think the most likely outcome for NAW this offseason is re-signing in Minnesota for a little over the non-taxpayer MLE. My guess is the combination of the best financial offer, NAW's relationship with Finch, and the young core of talent keep him with the Wolves.

[tmorgan]

The fact that Deni can look good with terrible (and now less terrible, but still not good) teammates is all you need to know. I hope he gets the chance to play meaningful games sooner rather than later, because then everyone will see what one of top two or three glue guys in the league actually can do. Portland wouldn’t even consider this.

EDIT: What’s a glue guy, exactly? There’s no real definition, but mine is a guy that positively impacts winning in multiple ways on offense and defense without being a big scorer or defensive anchor. Tayshaun Prince was a glue guy. Draymond Green is one of the best glue guys ever. Iguodala after he left Philly. Derrick White. Hartenstein. Evan Mobley started as one, but he’s going to evolve past it. You get the idea.

[tester551]

What do people think would be a fair offer for Avdija? He's like a fine 3rd/4th option who plays alright defense, is that worth multiple first round picks now?

I think about what he was traded for, a late lottery pick or = value. But that is a different question than what Portland would and/or should accept, considering that he is young and their best player. He can be a long-term piece for them and they don't know that about a late lottery pick.

Portland paid more than that.

Late lotto pick + future pick (likely in the teens) + 2 seconds + good player on expiring contract

[slos]

A lot of times teams don’t want to trade players because of sunk cost fallacy (I think passing on potentially better offers in the past for Grant and Simons may be why they haven’t traded them so far as their value has gone down), but with Deni when people don’t want to take back less than they traded him for, it is because he genuinely has been what we hoped for when we traded for him, so why would they accept less?

Is this offer less though?

I mean Portland after this will end up trading #14 and a mid low 2029 FRP (second best own, MIL, BOS) for a MIL 2031 FRP and 2032 swap.

In the same draft Spurs traded #8 for a MIN 2030 FRP and 2031 swap. I can see similarities here. On top of that Phoenix acquired three mid low FRPs for their 2031 FRP.

I’m putting here actual trades which hold better valuation than our realgm proposed trades. I know fans won’t be excited for picks 5-6 years from now, but it looks like GMs think differently.

[JRoy]

A lot of times teams don’t want to trade players because of sunk cost fallacy (I think passing on potentially better offers in the past for Grant and Simons may be why they haven’t traded them so far as their value has gone down), but with Deni when people don’t want to take back less than they traded him for, it is because he genuinely has been what we hoped for when we traded for him, so why would they accept less?

Is this offer less though?

I mean Portland after this will end up trading #14 and a mid low 2029 FRP (second best own, MIL, BOS) for a MIL 2031 FRP and 2032 swap.

In the same draft Spurs traded #8 for a MIN 2030 FRP and 2031 swap. I can see similarities here. On top of that Phoenix acquired three mid low FRPs for their 2031 FRP.

I’m putting here actual trades which hold better valuation than our realgm proposed trades. I know fans won’t be excited for picks 5-6 years from now, but it looks like GMs think differently.

This trade is good only for the Bucks.

No good young talent and draft picks 5-6 years out do not entice.

You need to let this one go. It’s not close.

[shrink]

I think the most likely outcome for NAW this offseason is re-signing in Minnesota for a little over the non-taxpayer MLE. My guess is the combination of the best financial offer, NAW's relationship with Finch, and the young core of talent keep him with the Wolves.

I hope that’s true, but slos is right, if MIL offers NAW the MLE and a starting job, it may be very hard to refuse.

That said, NAW may be the hardest Timberwolf to predict, because he is so different than most other NBA players. While many players are whooping it up with their teammates in the locker room, NAW is often reading a book. In his interviews, he is extremely thoughtful and well-spoken. He calls Mike Conley “his brother,” and means it. He has also said he is extremely grateful to the Wolves for giving him this opportunity when he was salary filler in the DLo-Conley trade, since he had been wandering to several teams and wondered if he would even be able to stay in the NBA much longer. And of course, staying in Minnesota for less money and less opportunity is something he just saw Naz Reid do.

I also heard an interesting breakdown of NAW and the Wolves, that I also think people may be interested in. MIN has three terrific perimeter defenders (plus Ant is great when he is needed), but they all do it in different ways. NAW slithers past screens to stay in front of his man. He led the league last year in “screen navigation,” and is leading this year as well. Jaden McDaniels does it with length. Even if he gets screened, or his man gets past him, his length lets him make up the distance, even from behind. Finally, youngster Jaylin Clark does it with physicality. People may have forgotten the kid, but he was college DPOY at UCLA, tore his Achilles, and was drafted by MIN at the end of the second round in 2023 while he healed. Clark has put up several great defensive performance lately, before starting his first game last night against OKC. He got the assignment to guard Shai, over McDaniels and cousin NAW. He plays a physical style - think Lou Dort.

Anyway, if Wolves lose NAW in free agency, they do have Clark to promote on a cheap deal. However, it’s more nuanced than that. Different defensive styles are better against different players, and losing NAW would mean one less important arrow in Finch’s defensive quiver.

[Myth]

A lot of times teams don’t want to trade players because of sunk cost fallacy (I think passing on potentially better offers in the past for Grant and Simons may be why they haven’t traded them so far as their value has gone down), but with Deni when people don’t want to take back less than they traded him for, it is because he genuinely has been what we hoped for when we traded for him, so why would they accept less?

Is this offer less though?

I mean Portland after this will end up trading #14 and a mid low 2029 FRP (second best own, MIL, BOS) for a MIL 2031 FRP and 2032 swap.

In the same draft Spurs traded #8 for a MIN 2030 FRP and 2031 swap. I can see similarities here. On top of that Phoenix acquired three mid low FRPs for their 2031 FRP.

I’m putting here actual trades which hold better valuation than our realgm proposed trades. I know fans won’t be excited for picks 5-6 years from now, but it looks like GMs think differently.

Giving the Bucks a good, young player, on a good contract, also gives them better options to weaken the picks they owe us.

[Tim Lehrbach]

I would gladly flip Deni for the right draft capital, but this is not what I have in mind.