Time to talk about Sergio de Larrea

[greg4012]

Spanish 6'6 PG [19 year old at draft time] playing for a strong/deep Valencia squad against high level competition in the top Spanish league (ACB) and Eurocup.

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Playing limited minutes (12 mpg) but making the most of them with per 36 numbers of 16.2 pts, 7.8 ast, 6.7 reb, 2.2 stocks on excellent efficiency -- 50.5% FG, 45% 3pt, 76% ft [63% ts; 60% efg]

A little more context on how well Sergio is playing on a very good and deep Valencia team:

- Sergio is 3rd on the team in points per minute (and also 3rd on the team in Usg%) in ACB games
- Sergio is tied for first on the team in points per play (1.4) in ACB games
- Sergio has the 4th best DRTG in ACB games on the Valencia team among the regular rotation players as the youngest player on the squad

On tape, I see a jumbo PG with real playmaking chops and full court vision that has a pure stroke (a little slow release), solid athleticism, some defensive versatility and a lack of glaring weaknesses. He doesn't seem to have a very explosive first step, but he gets to his spots on the court and makes some great plays.

If his size and 3 ball are as legit as they seem this season, then I'm not sure what's holding Sergio back from being a lotto talent.

Here's a statistical profile comparison to some other recent young prospects that played in high level European leagues and Giddey (I believe Sergio has faced better competition than the rest this season):

https://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=sergio-de-larrea--ben-saraf--zaccharie-risacher--nikola-topic--josh-giddey

The sample is low with his mpg so hard to know how real the 3 ball is. IMO it's pretty critical for his 3 ball to be real in order for him to distinguish his trajectory from past young Euro guards like Maledon, Balmero, etc. Unfortunately, Sergio is now out for a few weeks with a dislocated left shoulder.

Would love to learn more about Sergio if anyone has more to share.

[tester551]

Agreed. I really like him as a prospect. I think he'll be drafted around pick #20

[Chi town]

Has he jumped Traore?

[Chi town]

Great feel for the game on both ends.

- His 3 ball mechanics look great

- His athleticism does not look good… maybe not even an nba athlete

- Seems to be a wizard in PNR and half court

- Plays slow but does pass ahead

- His D doesn’t really show much in highlights outside of good anticipation. Can’t tell if he really competes.

- Wonder if he’s in the Ben Saraf tier of the draft. At his age though he shows a lot of skill that is built upon and added with athleticism could be a darn good player

[Frichuela]

Great prospect. By the way, he is taller than 6’6”, possibly 6’7” without shoes.

[greg4012]

Great feel for the game on both ends.

- His 3 ball mechanics look great

- His athleticism does not look good… maybe not even an nba athlete

- Seems to be a wizard in PNR and half court

- Plays slow but does pass ahead

- His D doesn’t really show much in highlights outside of good anticipation. Can’t tell if he really competes.

- Wonder if he’s in the Ben Saraf tier of the draft. At his age though he shows a lot of skill that is built upon and added with athleticism could be a darn good player

Good assessment. I think if Sergio continues to prove his 3 ball to be real, that bumps him up over Saraf for me.

I've only seen limited clips I can find online and dug into the stats, but I'm pretty encouraged by what Sergio shows as a defender. As the youngest player (19) on a talented & competitive ACB team (Valencia is 4th in ACB & 7th ranked defense), Sergio has the 4th best DRTG. The teammates with better defensive metrics than him are 34, 31 and 27. Sergio does foul way too much right now, which is prob part of what limits his minutes.

https://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=sergio-de-larrea--ben-saraf--nikola-djurisic--zaccharie-risacher--tidjane-salaun--nikola-topic

Highest stock rate of any of the 1st round Euro prospects from last year or this year

Highest stocks per 36 of first round Euro prospects from past 5 drafts (including this year):
- Poku* (BIG) = 4.8
- Wemby (BIG)= 4.2
- Sengun (BIG) = 3.7 
- Coulibaly (WING) = 2.8
- Usman Garuba (BIG) = 2.5
- Killian Hayes* (GUARD) = 2.5
- Sergio de Larrea (GUARD) = 2.2

* = stats from lower level euro league

I also think his athleticism might be better than given credit for. He doesnt seem to be a guy who gains major advantage with a first step which is the real athleticism limitation. But he otherwise seems to be a great mover, using length, agility and body control on both sides of the court. He also has dunks littered throughout his tape. I'd love to know his total dunk numbers on a per minute basis as I think that's a valuable indicator for guard athleticism translating to the NBA game (esp considering hes 19 playing in the ACB).

I'd guess he has over 10 dunks on the season just from watching game highlights from less than 10 games (he's played 27 so far this season). As an interesting point of comparison, Kasparas Jakucionis only has 1 dunk on the season. Here are the dunk numbers for top college guard prospects from this class:

Harper = 8 dunks (22 games)
Edgecombe = 25 dunks (23 games)
Jakucionis = 1 dunk (24 games)
Knueppel = 2 dunks (25 games)
Tre Johnson = 7 dunks (24 games)
Fears = 5 dunks (25 games)
Demin = 12 dunks (22 games)
Jase Richardson = 3 dunks (24 games)
Philon = 4 dunks (25 games)
Kam Jones = 0 dunks (25 games)
Fland = 0 dunks (18 games)
Nique Clifford = 14 dunks (25 games)

[Catchall]

I'm having a hard time getting a read on him, but his numbers compare well with Jakucionis, and he's playing in a more grown-up league.

[blog_pistons]

Hi i´m from spain and I think Sergio should start from the pick 20/25 (more 25 than 20) or lower. Physically he does not have top-level skills.

Positve: rebound, scoring, evolution, outside shot

Negative: Defensive improvement, foul trouble, motor

[sodmoraes]

War Sergio Diarrhea!

Sent from my SM-G780G using RealGM mobile app

[sisibilio]

I'm having a hard time getting a read on him, but his numbers compare well with Jakucionis, and he's playing in a more grown-up league.

He's like a more creative Demin.
He's been my favourite euroguard in the 05 generation for years but flew a bit under the radar cause he had rather poor performances with the spanish NT in the u17 & u19 world cup and u18 euros. Also he was underdeveloped physically and had a very hard time absorving contact, has taken a huge leap in that area since the last summer.

[greg4012]

I'm having a hard time getting a read on him, but his numbers compare well with Jakucionis, and he's playing in a more grown-up league.

He's like a more creative Demin.
He's been my favourite euroguard in the 05 generation for years but flew a bit under the radar cause he had rather poor performances with the spanish NT in the u17 & u19 world cup and u18 euros. Also he was underdeveloped physically and had a very hard time absorving contact, has taken a huge leap in that area since the last summer.

It makes sense if physically filling into his frame has unlocked his game. In the halfcourt, 36.4% of his FGA are at the rim this season, where he converts at a respectable 56.3%. He also draws fouls at a respectable 36%.

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Do you think his shooting is real? Because if his 3ball is as reliable as it seems this season, then we're looking at a 6'5+ PG with some of the best passing skills in the draft to go along with real 3pt shooting and above average slashing.

[Catchall]

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[sisibilio]

Do you think his shooting is real? Because if his 3ball is as reliable as it seems this season, then we're looking at a 6'5+ PG with some of the best passing skills in the draft to go along with real 3pt shooting and above average slashing.

I think so. Maybe not 50+% but i don't see why he wouldn't a high 30s kind of shooter on decent volume.
His shooting form reminds me a bit of Djordjevic, just a tad slower.

[sisibilio]

So, he's agreed to a new contract with Valencia (same lenght, ends in 28) and withdraws from the draft.
https://www.valenciabasket.com/sergio-de-larrea-continuara-en-valencia-basket-tras-decidir-no-inscribirse-en-el-draft-nba

[Catchall]

He was my pick for the Jazz at #21.

[sisibilio]

Well. MVP of the spanish supercup and today 23 Pts on 8/13 FG 5/7 3PT in his 2nd Euroleague game, looks like he's arrived for good.
Should be a lock for the top 10 in 2026.

[babyjax13]

I'll be curious to see where his 3-point shot normalizes this season. I think that is the big thing to get in order for him.

[Klomp]

I'll be curious to see where his 3-point shot normalizes this season. I think that is the big thing to get in order for him.

Agreed. I feel like he'll likely settle somewhere late teens/early 20s next summer, but I could be wrong....

[sisibilio]

With Valencia has been playing mostly as SG/secondary playmaker BTW which i think suits him best.

[sisibilio]

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