Minnesota offseason (re)signings

[slos]

I was curious if Wolves can bring their free agents back without hitting the 2nd apron mark again. Looks like they can.

- Randle opts out and resigns for 3y/90mil/PO (28/30/32)

Assuming Randle just opts in he will count 32,4 mil against the aprons. With this move Minny saves 4,4 mil next season and locks the Julius/Rudy combo for the next 2-3 years. Randle secures another high paycheck and a starting job in a contender.

- Reid opts in and extends for 4y/73,5mil (15/18/19,5/21)

That's 13 mil above the full MLE money and beats what most NBA teams can offer. That leaves only Brooklyn to worry for Minny. I think it's a fair price a 6th, Reid should happily take it and continue what he does in Minnesota.

- NAW resigns for 4y/60mil (13,5/14,5/15,5/16,5)

That's full MLE which also leaves a handful of teams with ability to offer more. Minny could lose him in that case only if there is a starting spot elsewhere (Bucks shoud be interested).

- Minny keeps currently #17 (3,5 mil) and #33 (1,2 mil), guarantees Minott/Miller, drops Garza to sign Clark for the last spot.

Dillingham....Conley.........Clark
Edwards.......DiVincenzo...Shannon
McDaniels.....NAW...........Minott
Randle.........#17............Miller
Gobert.........Reid..........#33

I did the math and this leaves Minny with 1,5 mil breathing room under the 207,8 mil second apron mark. With Conley off the books in 2026 Wolves could become a non tax team again.

[Godaddycurse]

Reid is not taking that deal imo.

[Mavrelous]

Reid is getting the max extention, 95/4...
I don't think NAW is getting the full MLE money

[ReggiesKnicks]

Maybe I am in the minority, but I see Randle as a comparable (I actually like him better) to Brandon Ingram.

Brandon Ingram just extended 3/120, which means I see Randle as a 32.4 Million expiring as a moveable piece without assets. In fact, I think he would garner assets for a team who wants creation and scoring (Charlotte, Miami, Utah, OKC, Clippers, Phoenix all all teams who could utilize Randle and be a better team with him).

NAW appears to be the odd-man out here, right? With the emergence of Jaylen Clark and Terrence Shannon Jr both appearing to be competent NBA rotation pieces, the squeeze comes in the guard rotation.

Naz Reid becomes the big question mark here. With only one NBA team having real cap space this off-season and being a fit for Naz Reid, Detroit could come in heavy, offer something that blows away what Malik Monk received just last off-season (4/78) and claims Naz for themselves. Outside of Detroit I don't see anyone making enough moves for the purpose of offering Naz Reid an abundance of money, which really means in all liklihood Naz Reid is a Timberwolf through the rest of the decade.

Ultimately, their ownerships willingness or lack thereof to spend money is going to determine the direction Minnesota takes, but they have a lot of talented players on the roster and can easily do a handful of things in order to retain a majority of their talent.

[shrink]

Reid is getting the max extention, 95/4...
I don't think NAW is getting the full MLE money

This is what I’d guess too.

The bigger problem for MIN is whether both Randle and Naz want to come back, if only one can be the starter. Finch already has them on board with closing with one off the court. Rudy grumbles because he thinks games are won with team defense, but accepts it. Naz has sat at the beginning of the season, Randle sits now with injury, but Finch still mixes up the bigs.

I think it will be a more difficult negotiation about who starts. I would imagine after winning two All NBA awards, a CPOY, and multiple All Star games, Randle will feel he deserves to start. Naz though has certainly been deserving as well, and has learned to play well on both sides of the ball with Gobert. Fans would riot if the team didn’t bring him back. However, in the last month before Randle and DiVincenzo got hurt, Finch made a change, where he started Randle but gave him a quick hook, and he’d come back and play as point forward with the second unit, and he definitely enjoyed that. But I imagine it would be a tough sell to ask him to be the sixth man during contract negotiations.

To me, this is the biggest roster issue of the off-season. MIN has three rotation level bigs (Gobert, Randle and Naz), and then no one on their roster who can spell even bench minutes, if they try to keep skinny Jaden McDaniels at the 3. Connelly has done exceedingly well getting Wolves players to stay and take less - something that hasn’t happened before in Wolves history. But I worry that he will face the biggest roadblock to longterm team success - young players that were helping you on the cheap eventually deserve more money, and more opportunity. We’ll see what happens with NAW and Naz.

[shrink]

NAW appears to be the odd-man out here, right? With the emergence of Jaylen Clark and Terrence Shannon Jr both appearing to be competent NBA rotation pieces, the squeeze comes in the guard rotation.

Good post throughout. You’re right about the guard logjam and Mike Conley is playing better now too, and is leader of the team. And you’re right - we don’t know what the new owners will spend. Its a delicate line to walk between dollars and minutes.

I wrote this in a MIL thread, but if people are curious about MIN’s off-season, especially NAW, it might fit better here.

I think the most likely outcome for NAW this offseason is re-signing in Minnesota for a little over the non-taxpayer MLE. My guess is the combination of the best financial offer, NAW's relationship with Finch, and the young core of talent keep him with the Wolves.

I hope that’s true, but slos is right, if MIL offers NAW the MLE and a starting job, it may be very hard to refuse.

That said, NAW may be the hardest Timberwolf to predict, because he is so different than most other NBA players. While many players are whooping it up with their teammates in the locker room, NAW is often reading a book. In his interviews, he is extremely thoughtful and well-spoken. He calls Mike Conley “his brother,” and means it. He has also said he is extremely grateful to the Wolves for giving him this opportunity when they traded for him, since he had been wandering to several teams and wondered if he would even be able to stay in the NBA much longer. And of course, staying in Minnesota for less money and less opportunity is something he just saw Naz Reid do.

I also heard an interesting breakdown of NAW and the Wolves, that I also think people may be interested in. MIN has three terrific perimeter defenders (plus Ant is great when he is needed), but they all do it in different ways. NAW slithers past screens to stay in front of his man. He led the league last year in “screen navigation,” and is leading this year as well. Jaden McDaniels does it with length. Even if he gets screened, or his man gets past him, his length lets him make up the distance, even from behind. Finally, youngster Jaylin Clark does it with physicality. People may have forgotten the kid, but he was college DPOY at UCLA, tore his Achilles, and was drafted by MIN at the end of the second round in 2023 while he healed. Clark has put up several great defensive performance lately, before starting his first game last night against OKC. He got the assignment to guard Shai, over McDaniels and cousin NAW. He plays a physical style - think Lou Dort.

Anyway, if Wolves lose NAW in free agency, they do have Clark to promote on a cheap deal. However, it’s more nuanced than that. Different defensive styles are better against different players, and losing NAW would mean one less important arrow in Finch’s defensive quiver.

[wolves_89]

I don't see Randle being back with the Wolves. My guess is that he opts out and then works with Minnesota to find a sign-and-trade where the Wolves get back a $15-20M/year rotation player that fits. I would also bet on Reid opting out and re-signing in Minnesota for something like $120M/4 years or $150M/5 years. My final prediction is NAW re-signing with the Wolves for around $48M/3 years. That would likely keep the Wolves under the 2nd apron while locking in their core group.

[winforlose]

Before we talk about who the Wolves bring back we need to talk about the Wolves roster space and construction. Right now the Wolves have Luka Garza as the only designated backup C. Beyond that Naz or Randle play the part, but neither is a C. Leonard Miller may also be a backup C, but that is not exactly certain, with some fans saying he is a PF.

At PG DDV was named starter about 6 or 7 games before his injury. Mike Conley is the backup and Dillingham is the PG of the future and technically the 3rd string. Mike is an expiring next year and unlikely to be on the team moving forward. DDV is not really a PG and Ant struggles when running point. This is a roster construction issue that might need to be addressed next year.

Having talked about roster issues now let’s look at space

Guaranteed contacts

1. Ant
2. Jaden
3. Rudy
4. Mike Conley
5. Donte
6. Dillingham
7. Shannon
8. Det first round pick

Non guaranteed contracts

9. Josh Minott
10. Leonard Miller
11. RFA rights to Jalen Clark
12. Luka Garza
13. Utah second round draft pick

Free agents
14. Randle
15. Naz
16. NAW

Assume we dump Garza and trade Minott for a future second or two. Also assume we either convert Clark this season or sign him as an RFA for the next four years. If we bring back all 3 then that is 14 men with roster issues at PG and C.

The likely scenario is Randle opts in if he cannot find a suitor that wants to pay him 35+. The Wolves could negotiate the multi year deal discussed above with 3 for 90, but I don’t think the market even gives Randle that much. At 31 going to 34 Randle has hit his peak and the question is who has the cap space, desire, and fit for Randle. I could see him at 3 for 75 or 80 and that might be cheap enough to trade or valuable enough to keep.

Naz Reid has a 15 million dollar player option. I expect him to decline it. If Naz wants to keep NAW and wants to start I can see us giving him a back loaded deal. First year maybe 20, second year maybe 23, then when the cap is higher he gets his 30 and 33. 4 year 106-110 probably makes a lot of sense given Naz’s current production level. He might want a player option for the final year, and he probably gets it.

NAW is an open question. I suspect we sign him to around 14 with the intention of trading him. Kind of like how the Suns used Okogie. I could also see NAW continue to struggle in 2025 and get closer to 7 or 8. Or the Wolves could sign and trade him to a tax team like NYK or the Bucks. NAW has a lot to prove.

So if you’re the Wolves FO the big rumor is the Wolves want KD. KD costs 54 million and the Wolves need to aggregate salary so no second apron. If the Wolves use any of the MLE above the tax payer number then they are 1st apron hard capped. Assuming they are a 1st apron team the question is who to trade for KD. I would not make any trade for him, but when discussing roster construction you need to account for this possibility as well.

[zimpy27]

A Durant trade would need McDaniels+Randle(opt in) as the base, then FRPs on top. Do Minny have FRPs?

[Astaluego]

Good read thanks guys..
I'm not sure Randle has much of a market,..I would try to trade him, if there was an offer,..
Who would want Randle?

Clippers
In:Randle
Out:Bogdan/Eubanks

Clippers looking to send Batum/K.Brown some cap space

Magic
In: Bogdanovic
Out:Isaak/J.Howard

Wolves
In:Isaak/J.Howard
Out:Randle

They cut a good amount of money, and the flexibility of Isaal's contract that is not fully guaranteed and has injury insurance

[shrink]

A Durant trade would need McDaniels+Randle(opt in) as the base, then FRPs on top. Does Minny have FRPs?

MIN has this year’s DET 1st (currently #17) and UTA 2nd (#33).

Other than that, it’s extremely limited. They could be able to horcrux swaps where they are already getting the worse pick between UTA/MIN 2026, 2028 or SA/MIN (2030). They could also trade the upper part of the Top 5 protected pick they owe UTA in 2029 (other team gets it only if in the top 5, otherwise nothing).

Any other picks would need to be generated with trades elsewhere.

[shrink]

Naz Reid has a 15 million dollar player option. I expect him to decline it. If Naz wants to keep NAW and wants to start I can see us giving him a back loaded deal. First year maybe 20, second year maybe 23, then when the cap is higher he gets his 30 and 33.

Good post, I just wanted to point out that NBA contracts raises are limited to 8% raises over the previous year’s salary.

[winforlose]

Naz Reid has a 15 million dollar player option. I expect him to decline it. If Naz wants to keep NAW and wants to start I can see us giving him a back loaded deal. First year maybe 20, second year maybe 23, then when the cap is higher he gets his 30 and 33.

Good post, I just wanted to point out that NBA contracts raises are limited to 8% raises over the previous year’s salary.

Thanks. I always thought there was more flexibility than that, but I guess not.