**NBA Draft Discussion 2025**

[DayofMourning]

Great post greg!

Thanks for putting the effort in. I was watching SGL some when I was looking at Hugo.

Will dive deeper as the draft gets closer.

[DayofMourning]

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/probable-no-1-pick-cooper-flagg-says-he-wants-to-come-back-next-year-for-duke-but-he-cant-be-serious/amp/

No Flagg till 26?

[MettaWorldPanda]

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/probable-no-1-pick-cooper-flagg-says-he-wants-to-come-back-next-year-for-duke-but-he-cant-be-serious/amp/

No Flagg till 26?

NIL paying good. Knowing our luck OKC gets Flagg with our pick in 2026

[marson]

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/probable-no-1-pick-cooper-flagg-says-he-wants-to-come-back-next-year-for-duke-but-he-cant-be-serious/amp/

No Flagg till 26?

NIL paying good. Knowing our luck OKC gets Flagg with our pick in 2026

There's no chance he'd turn down a $50 million rookie scale contract if he goes number 1, unless Duke offers him that huge sum of money.

[DayofMourning]

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/probable-no-1-pick-cooper-flagg-says-he-wants-to-come-back-next-year-for-duke-but-he-cant-be-serious/amp/

No Flagg till 26?

NIL paying good. Knowing our luck OKC gets Flagg with our pick in 2026

Man. OKC with another defensive stud would be insane. Shut it down for the next 7 yrs or so.

[lastb1ckman]

Outside the slight chance they move up to top 4, where the star scorers are, I'd think the Heat will likely go for either a guard or big once again. We have sooooo many forwards on this team and in the developmental pipeline, but as for back up Cs and a starting quality PG we're still lacking.

There's one problem, all the first round PGs are young. The oldest I really see is Sergio de Larrea, who yall mentioned before. No Tyler Koleks out there. Idk if the Heat will draft a young PG. Unless they're a star immediately, he's gonna struggle at first. Young PGs always do. The Heat don't usually do the trial by fire learning PGs need.

[greg4012]

Outside the slight chance they move up to top 4, where the star scorers are, I'd think the Heat will likely go for either a guard or big once again. We have sooooo many forwards on this team and in the developmental pipeline, but as for back up Cs and a starting quality PG we're still lacking.

There's one problem, all the first round PGs are young. The oldest I really see is Sergio de Larrea, who yall mentioned before. No Tyler Koleks out there. Idk if the Heat will draft a young PG. Unless they're a star immediately, he's gonna struggle at first. Young PGs always do. The Heat don't usually do the trial by fire learning PGs need.

In general, I think embracing youth and development is great. Gotta take the upside shots.

As for Kolek and the more seasoned guards, Kam Jones is basically replicating what Kolek did as the lead guard for Marquette last season

Kolek = 42% ast%; 18% turnover%
Jones = 39% ast%; 9% turnover%

But regardless, a Kolek type is never what Miami should be focused on with a potential lotto pick. Esp in a post-Jimmy world.

Miami's roster can take a lot of different forms over the next year+ leading into the next window of longer-term committed salary, I think remaining largely position agnostic and getting best player available has to be the driving approach.

[twix2500]

Watch on YouTube

I like what I initially see. Will keep an eye him

[greg4012]

SLEEPER ALERT!

Read on Twitter

Adrian Wooley is playing mid-major competition but absolutely showing out as a freshman. Creates offense at all 3 levels and finishes efficiently at each level.

Averaging 18.5 ppg (52% FG; 63% TS) while shooting 40% from 3 (5 attempts per game), 3.5 assists, 5.2 rebounds, and 1.6 stocks. Relentlessly gets in the paint where he takes 48% of his attempts at the rim (63% finisher)

Watch on YouTube

[lastb1ckman]

Outside the slight chance they move up to top 4, where the star scorers are, I'd think the Heat will likely go for either a guard or big once again. We have sooooo many forwards on this team and in the developmental pipeline, but as for back up Cs and a starting quality PG we're still lacking.

There's one problem, all the first round PGs are young. The oldest I really see is Sergio de Larrea, who yall mentioned before. No Tyler Koleks out there. Idk if the Heat will draft a young PG. Unless they're a star immediately, he's gonna struggle at first. Young PGs always do. The Heat don't usually do the trial by fire learning PGs need.

In general, I think embracing youth and development is great. Gotta take the upside shots.

As for Kolek and the more seasoned guards, Kam Jones is basically replicating what Kolek did as the lead guard for Marquette last season

Kolek = 42% ast%; 18% turnover%
Jones = 39% ast%; 9% turnover%

But regardless, a Kolek type is never what Miami should be focused on with a potential lotto pick. Esp in a post-Jimmy world.

Miami's roster can take a lot of different forms over the next year+ leading into the next window of longer-term committed salary, I think remaining largely position agnostic and getting best player available has to be the driving approach.

I'd love for the heat to take a young lottery level pg in the draft, I just doubt it due to their drafting history and how young players get time on Spo teams.

HOWEVER! If the Heat did pick a PG, he must have blown them away. And I'd be super excited to seem him play. I personally like Jeremiah Fears alot. He's got the first step, rim pressure, and finishing literally nobody else on the team has.

I really hope they don't get another forward or off guard. Where's that kid getting time? We have Jaquez, Jovic, Wiggins, Highsmith, Larson, maybe Anderson, and multiple g league guys. He'd have to legit be a star out the gate.

[DayofMourning]

I'd love for the heat to take a young lottery level pg in the draft, I just doubt it due to their drafting history and how young players get time on Spo teams.

HOWEVER! If the Heat did pick a PG, he must have blown them away. And I'd be super excited to seem him play. I personally like Jeremiah Fears alot. He's got the first step, rim pressure, and finishing literally nobody else on the team has.

I really hope they don't get another forward or off guard. Where's that kid getting time? We have Jaquez, Jovic, Wiggins, Highsmith, Larson, maybe Anderson, and multiple g league guys. He'd have to legit be a star out the gate.

Fears is a very good penetrator and can put pressure on the rim. He handles contact well which is pretty important for a smaller guy.

If we could get a star lead ball handler and another legit big, then wed have a balanced and deep rotation.

[greg4012]

Outside the slight chance they move up to top 4, where the star scorers are, I'd think the Heat will likely go for either a guard or big once again. We have sooooo many forwards on this team and in the developmental pipeline, but as for back up Cs and a starting quality PG we're still lacking.

There's one problem, all the first round PGs are young. The oldest I really see is Sergio de Larrea, who yall mentioned before. No Tyler Koleks out there. Idk if the Heat will draft a young PG. Unless they're a star immediately, he's gonna struggle at first. Young PGs always do. The Heat don't usually do the trial by fire learning PGs need.

In general, I think embracing youth and development is great. Gotta take the upside shots.

As for Kolek and the more seasoned guards, Kam Jones is basically replicating what Kolek did as the lead guard for Marquette last season

Kolek = 42% ast%; 18% turnover%
Jones = 39% ast%; 9% turnover%

But regardless, a Kolek type is never what Miami should be focused on with a potential lotto pick. Esp in a post-Jimmy world.

Miami's roster can take a lot of different forms over the next year+ leading into the next window of longer-term committed salary, I think remaining largely position agnostic and getting best player available has to be the driving approach.

I'd love for the heat to take a young lottery level pg in the draft, I just doubt it due to their drafting history and how young players get time on Spo teams.

HOWEVER! If the Heat did pick a PG, he must have blown them away. And I'd be super excited to seem him play. I personally like Jeremiah Fears alot. He's got the first step, rim pressure, and finishing literally nobody else on the team has.

I really hope they don't get another forward or off guard. Where's that kid getting time? We have Jaquez, Jovic, Wiggins, Highsmith, Larson, maybe Anderson, and multiple g league guys. He'd have to legit be a star out the gate.

Who Miami is committed to long or medium-term is very much in flux for this developmental period. Jaquez has been disappointing this season and is increasingly likely to be traded vs extended imo. Jovic is a great piece that I've advocated for, but he's extension eligible and depending on what pops up could be required trade bait. Wiggins is very likely opting out after next season to get his last pay day, and if not, is on the books thru 2027 as a prime tradeable piece. Highsmith (expires next szn), Larsson, and Anderson (non-guaranteed after next szn) are not players that should at all influence draft posture.

There's not a guard that Miami can draft in 2025 (esp outside the top 5) that will be the level of contributor in his first 2-3 seasons (the window of roster commitment for the players youve referenced here) that will put this current roster into serious contention status.

Get upside talent that serves winning basketball.

[greg4012]

I like Fears a bit based on the same things I liked about Collier last draft. He seems dynamic at creating offense, is young and seems to want to play a lead guard style of ball with the offense revolving around him (over 30% usage). I love how he navigates the floor and gets into the paint to create offense. However, I am concerned that he is squarely a below-the-rim player if getting to the rim is his primary source of offense. And even more concerned that he can't seem to hit the 3 ball (I hope his good FT shooting numbers are a sign of hope).

In 2025, Fears is averaging 12 ppg, more turnovers than assists, and is shooting under 37% from the field and under 23% from 3 (26% on the season).

I'd like to see a little more elite burst/athleticism to get over the concerns re 3 pt shooting.

[lastb1ckman]

In general, I think embracing youth and development is great. Gotta take the upside shots.

As for Kolek and the more seasoned guards, Kam Jones is basically replicating what Kolek did as the lead guard for Marquette last season

Kolek = 42% ast%; 18% turnover%
Jones = 39% ast%; 9% turnover%

But regardless, a Kolek type is never what Miami should be focused on with a potential lotto pick. Esp in a post-Jimmy world.

Miami's roster can take a lot of different forms over the next year+ leading into the next window of longer-term committed salary, I think remaining largely position agnostic and getting best player available has to be the driving approach.

I'd love for the heat to take a young lottery level pg in the draft, I just doubt it due to their drafting history and how young players get time on Spo teams.

HOWEVER! If the Heat did pick a PG, he must have blown them away. And I'd be super excited to seem him play. I personally like Jeremiah Fears alot. He's got the first step, rim pressure, and finishing literally nobody else on the team has.

I really hope they don't get another forward or off guard. Where's that kid getting time? We have Jaquez, Jovic, Wiggins, Highsmith, Larson, maybe Anderson, and multiple g league guys. He'd have to legit be a star out the gate.

Who Miami is committed to long or medium-term is very much in flux for this developmental period. Jaquez has been disappointing this season and is increasingly likely to be traded vs extended imo. Jovic is a great piece that I've advocated for, but he's extension eligible and depending on what pops up could be required trade bait. Wiggins is very likely opting out after next season to get his last pay day, and if not, is on the books thru 2027 as a prime tradeable piece. Highsmith (expires next szn), Larsson, and Anderson (non-guaranteed after next szn) are not players that should at all influence draft posture.

There's not a guard that Miami can draft in 2025 (esp outside the top 5) that will be the level of contributor in his first 2-3 seasons (the window of roster commitment for the players youve referenced here) that will put this current roster into serious contention status.

Get upside talent that serves winning basketball.

I think its far more likely than you think that most of these guys are going to be on the team in the coming years. If they play significant time the rest of this season I think its all but guaranteed. The Heat don't cut bait on young guys Spo plays. The guys I might see gone within a few seasons are maybe Highsmith, Duncan, Anderson, and Wiggins due to age and roster construction. Any new wings are gonna have to out play Jaquez, Jovic, and Larrson. Which is gonna be tough if they're coming in young and raw like most in our range.

[HeatIn5]

Best case scenario is that our lotto balls are the magic ones that move up, and we pick somewhere in the 1-4 range and then get GS pick (11-16)

We draft one of the big 4 (Flagg, Harper, Bailey, Edgecomb) and then see what solid player we can get out of the GS pick, Jaime, and then either Terry’s expiring or Wiggins.

However if we get Harper or Edgecomb, Wiggins may be a piece they want to keep.

Herro
Edgecomb
Wiggins
Bam
Ware

With pieces to add something to.

It’s so important for us to hit in the lottery, if possible.


Would be fun to know how high we can get with 11/14/Jaime/Rozier Expiring.

Im thinking Dylan Harper with our pick;)

Derik Queen with the GSW pick?

As for your last bit, I think that package could get you the fifth pick maybe. Wed miss out on the current big 4 though.

Moving from 11 to 5 would make it a lot easier to move from 5 to 4 though

[lastb1ckman]

So whos the PGs available to the Heat in their range? Jeremiah Fear, Egor Demin, Nolan Traore, Ben Saraf, Boogie Fland, & Sergio de Larrea? From the little bit of film I've seen, I like them all lol. I particularly like Fear and Fland, they seem to really have that self creation and burst nobody else on the team has, along without being totally lost on defense.

[greg4012]

I'd love for the heat to take a young lottery level pg in the draft, I just doubt it due to their drafting history and how young players get time on Spo teams.

HOWEVER! If the Heat did pick a PG, he must have blown them away. And I'd be super excited to seem him play. I personally like Jeremiah Fears alot. He's got the first step, rim pressure, and finishing literally nobody else on the team has.

I really hope they don't get another forward or off guard. Where's that kid getting time? We have Jaquez, Jovic, Wiggins, Highsmith, Larson, maybe Anderson, and multiple g league guys. He'd have to legit be a star out the gate.

Who Miami is committed to long or medium-term is very much in flux for this developmental period. Jaquez has been disappointing this season and is increasingly likely to be traded vs extended imo. Jovic is a great piece that I've advocated for, but he's extension eligible and depending on what pops up could be required trade bait. Wiggins is very likely opting out after next season to get his last pay day, and if not, is on the books thru 2027 as a prime tradeable piece. Highsmith (expires next szn), Larsson, and Anderson (non-guaranteed after next szn) are not players that should at all influence draft posture.

There's not a guard that Miami can draft in 2025 (esp outside the top 5) that will be the level of contributor in his first 2-3 seasons (the window of roster commitment for the players youve referenced here) that will put this current roster into serious contention status.

Get upside talent that serves winning basketball.

I think its far more likely than you think that most of these guys are going to be on the team in the coming years. If they play significant time the rest of this season I think its all but guaranteed. The Heat don't cut bait on young guys Spo plays. The guys I might see gone within a few seasons are maybe Highsmith, Duncan, Anderson, and Wiggins due to age and roster construction. Any new wings are gonna have to out play Jaquez, Jovic, and Larrson. Which is gonna be tough if they're coming in young and raw like most in our range.

Only 1 of the young players mentioned on the roster that I see worth accounting for with regards to future posture is Jovic. Not that there isn’t clear value with the others. Just that I think it’s value that is secondary to primary build considerations.

And Jovic is pretty exclusively a forward.

[greg4012]

So whos the PGs available to the Heat in their range? Jeremiah Fear, Egor Demin, Nolan Traore, Ben Saraf, Boogie Fland, & Sergio de Larrea? From the little bit of film I've seen, I like them all lol. I particularly like Fear and Fland, they seem to really have that self creation and burst nobody else on the team has, along without being totally lost on defense.

Advantage creators. Miamis in desperate need of them.

[MettaWorldPanda]

Read on Twitter

I could definitely see us drafting CMB. We as a team have gotten way too soft and he brings major dawg vibes. Prototype Spo 6'7 230 PF/SF to mix in with the bigs.

[DayofMourning]

So whos the PGs available to the Heat in their range? Jeremiah Fear, Egor Demin, Nolan Traore, Ben Saraf, Boogie Fland, & Sergio de Larrea? From the little bit of film I've seen, I like them all lol. I particularly like Fear and Fland, they seem to really have that self creation and burst nobody else on the team has, along without being totally lost on defense.

Boogie is scary.

Shoots 39%. Does he defend at an NBA level?

Havent watched a lot, but heard he cant finish at the rim.