Bears 10.0: GM and coach watch before the draft

[dice]

simulated offseason (the one where the bears cannibalize the champs):

free agency

cuts - everett, bates
re-sign - jenkins - 2 years, 34 mil (21 guaranteed) - overpay, but good contract length
re-sign - pryor - 2 years, 6.5 mil

milt williams - 26 yo DT - 3 years, 69 mil - big overpay - pushes billings to 2nd string
asante samuel - 26 yo CB - 4 years, 72 mil - big gamble coming off injury - solves stevenson conundrum, good CB depth
josh sweat - 28 yo EDGE - 2 years, 37 mil - mistake given likelihood of pearce or other EDGE riser being available in draft
mekhi becton - 26 yo OL - 2 years, 27 mil - excellent rookie season as LT, good last year as RG, major regression/injuries in-between - potential takeover for braxton in 2026

FA summary - 5 large FA contracts (4 linemen, 3 former eagles) leaves C and WR3 open, requires over a dozen roster spots to be filled w/ min salary talent

draft

TEN EDGE carter
CLE CB/WR hunter
NYG QB ward
PATS OT/G banks (surprise pick)
JAGS OT/G campbell (another surprise)
LVR CB johnson (russ wilson signs in FA)
NYJ QBsanders
CAR DL graham
saints EDGE pearce
BEARS WR mcmillan - obvious choice here, poles gets lucky in consecutive drafts despite poor planning each time

leaves center position open for later in draft, trade or bargain bin

[patryk7754]

With a Gordon extension coming up, I don't think we will be signing another CB to a major deal. At most, I can see someone getting a 15ish mill a year until a decision needs to be made on Stevenson. If we think signing a CB is a legit option, I think the most likely thing is signing a vet to a cheap 1 or 2 year deal. Overall, I think the most likely thing is we stand pat.

If anything, I think hiring Allen made it very unlikely we "give up" on Stevenson. Stevenson is very similar to PJ Williams, who had a very, very good career under Allen. If anyone can bring out the best of Stevenson, I think Allen has a good shot of doing it.

[dice]

With a Gordon extension coming up, I don't think we will be signing another CB to a major deal. At most, I can see someone getting a 15ish mill a year until a decision needs to be made on Stevenson. If we think signing a CB is a legit option, I think the most likely thing is signing a vet to a cheap 1 or 2 year deal. Overall, I think the most likely thing is we stand pat.

If anything, I think hiring Allen made it very unlikely we "give up" on Stevenson. Stevenson is very similar to PJ Williams, who had a very, very good career under Allen. If anyone can bring out the best of Stevenson, I think Allen has a good shot of doing it.

agree on all counts. with the amount of cap space, signing a new starting CB is a bigger possibility than people think though. stevenson obviously is preferable as a depth piece (at best) right now. particularly if poles is serious about making a clean break w/ last season's culture

[fleet]

Stevenson is probably getting a chance to impress them this summer. Al Harris is on him like missile lock. He sent Stevenson to camp already

[Dresden]

simulated offseason (the one where the bears cannibalize the champs):

free agency

cuts - everett, bates
re-sign - jenkins - 2 years, 34 mil (21 guaranteed) - overpay, but good contract length
re-sign - pryor - 2 years, 6.5 mil

milt williams - 26 yo DT - 3 years, 69 mil - big overpay - pushes billings to 2nd string
asante samuel - 26 yo CB - 4 years, 72 mil - big gamble coming off injury - solves stevenson conundrum, good CB depth
josh sweat - 28 yo EDGE - 2 years, 37 mil - mistake given likelihood of pearce or other EDGE riser being available in draft
mekhi becton - 26 yo OL - 2 years, 27 mil - excellent rookie season as LT, good last year as RG, major regression/injuries in-between - potential takeover for braxton in 2026

FA summary - 5 large FA contracts (4 linemen, 3 former eagles) leaves C and WR3 open, requires over a dozen roster spots to be filled w/ min salary talent

draft

TEN EDGE carter
CLE CB/WR hunter
NYG QB ward
PATS OT/G banks (surprise pick)
JAGS OT/G campbell (another surprise)
LVR CB johnson (russ wilson signs in FA)
NYJ QBsanders
CAR DL graham
saints EDGE pearce
BEARS WR mcmillan - obvious choice here, poles gets lucky in consecutive drafts despite poor planning each time

leaves center position open for later in draft, trade or bargain bin

Yep, that Poles, he just seems to get lucky again and again.

[Chi town]

https://www.bleachernation.com/bears/2025/02/17/2025-nfl-draft-grades-0217/

Interesting from Miller. I’m sure more guys will climb up his board.

[Chi town]

I feel strangely really good about the offseason and draft due to Coach Johnson and what he will do with Poles in FA and a full slate of picks. I think he will have big sway to build his team with giants of players.

For the draft I’m looking to trade back if you can’t get Mason Graham. I know Billings will be back but Graham is a Jalen Carter level of disruptive and he’d make Dexter even better.

Ideally we get one DT, one Edge and one olineman in our first 3 picks. Fill in the rest of the Oline in FA.

Outside of the that I’d go for speedy slot WR, RB and safety after we fill the trenches.

[Peelboy]

simulated offseason (the one where the bears cannibalize the champs):

free agency

cuts - everett, bates
re-sign - jenkins - 2 years, 34 mil (21 guaranteed) - overpay, but good contract length
re-sign - pryor - 2 years, 6.5 mil

milt williams - 26 yo DT - 3 years, 69 mil - big overpay - pushes billings to 2nd string
asante samuel - 26 yo CB - 4 years, 72 mil - big gamble coming off injury - solves stevenson conundrum, good CB depth
josh sweat - 28 yo EDGE - 2 years, 37 mil - mistake given likelihood of pearce or other EDGE riser being available in draft
mekhi becton - 26 yo OL - 2 years, 27 mil - excellent rookie season as LT, good last year as RG, major regression/injuries in-between - potential takeover for braxton in 2026

FA summary - 5 large FA contracts (4 linemen, 3 former eagles) leaves C and WR3 open, requires over a dozen roster spots to be filled w/ min salary talent

draft

TEN EDGE carter
CLE CB/WR hunter
NYG QB ward
PATS OT/G banks (surprise pick)
JAGS OT/G campbell (another surprise)
LVR CB johnson (russ wilson signs in FA)
NYJ QBsanders
CAR DL graham
saints EDGE pearce
BEARS WR mcmillan - obvious choice here, poles gets lucky in consecutive drafts despite poor planning each time

leaves center position open for later in draft, trade or bargain bin

Coming off a near wasted year for your hopefully franchise QB, with one of the worst lines in the league contributing to happy feet and dropping eyes (terrible habits), IMO it's malpractice to take your top resources and minimally allocate to OL. But that has largely been Poles' approach. I'm a Becton fan, but if that's your only material addition to the line (resigning brittle Jenkins and solid reserve Pryor don't count as additions), you're shortchanging Caleb AGAIN. It's like last year when he went for Rome (who I love), over the less flashy but more impactful OL pick.

I get that you have some surprise OL going above 10, but in that scenario you trade down. Allocating a high pick to WR with DJ and Rome already on board is a misallocation of resources. Especially given your FA scenario. In that world, go grab a 2d or 3d rd WR to go with DJ/Rome/Kmet and either grab an OL (Simmons/Membou) or trade down and grab someone like Booker/Conerly/Zabel.

My ideal draft is with the top 4 picks in 3 rounds, 2-3 OL and 1-2 DL. In your scenario with DL addressed via FA, could grab 2-3OL and then an RB or WR or whoever slips. But young OL in ADDITION to some FA help are critical because of the lack of investment in that area and the criticality of that for a young QB.

[dice]

simulated offseason (the one where the bears cannibalize the champs):

free agency

cuts - everett, bates
re-sign - jenkins - 2 years, 34 mil (21 guaranteed) - overpay, but good contract length
re-sign - pryor - 2 years, 6.5 mil

milt williams - 26 yo DT - 3 years, 69 mil - big overpay - pushes billings to 2nd string
asante samuel - 26 yo CB - 4 years, 72 mil - big gamble coming off injury - solves stevenson conundrum, good CB depth
josh sweat - 28 yo EDGE - 2 years, 37 mil - mistake given likelihood of pearce or other EDGE riser being available in draft
mekhi becton - 26 yo OL - 2 years, 27 mil - excellent rookie season as LT, good last year as RG, major regression/injuries in-between - potential takeover for braxton in 2026

FA summary - 5 large FA contracts (4 linemen, 3 former eagles) leaves C and WR3 open, requires over a dozen roster spots to be filled w/ min salary talent

draft

TEN EDGE carter
CLE CB/WR hunter
NYG QB ward
PATS OT/G banks (surprise pick)
JAGS OT/G campbell (another surprise)
LVR CB johnson (russ wilson signs in FA)
NYJ QBsanders
CAR DL graham
saints EDGE pearce
BEARS WR mcmillan - obvious choice here, poles gets lucky in consecutive drafts despite poor planning each time

leaves center position open for later in draft, trade or bargain bin

Coming off a near wasted year for your hopefully franchise QB, with one of the worst lines in the league contributing to happy feet and dropping eyes (terrible habits), IMO it's malpractice to take your top resources and minimally allocate to OL. But that has largely been Poles' approach. I'm a Becton fan, but if that's your only material addition to the line (resigning brittle Jenkins and solid reserve Pryor don't count as additions), you're shortchanging Caleb AGAIN. It's like last year when he went for Rome (who I love), over the less flashy but more impactful OL pick.

I get that you have some surprise OL going above 10, but in that scenario you trade down. Allocating a high pick to WR with DJ and Rome already on board is a misallocation of resources. Especially given your FA scenario. In that world, go grab a 2d or 3d rd WR to go with DJ/Rome/Kmet and either grab an OL (Simmons/Membou) or trade down and grab someone like Booker/Conerly/Zabel.

My ideal draft is with the top 4 picks in 3 rounds, 2-3 OL and 1-2 DL. In your scenario with DL addressed via FA, could grab 2-3OL and then an RB or WR or whoever slips. But young OL in ADDITION to some FA help are critical because of the lack of investment in that area and the criticality of that for a young QB.

wasn't one of the worst O-lines. caleb holds the ball too long. agree on jenkins, though, and i think re-signing him is very unlikely

PFN o-line rankings:

17) Chicago Bears
Regular-Season Grade: 76.7 (C)

It has been exceptionally unfair that the Chicago Bears’ offensive woes were largely blamed on the offensive line. Sure, a 17th-placed ranking isn’t good, but it’s not horrendous. They had some bad outings, as did most offensive lines, but that doesn’t mean they are the main reason for Caleb Williams’ struggles as a rookie.

The Bears’ OL was asked to block for the fourth-longest time of any unit this season (3.09 seconds). That contributes heavily to a 10.7% sack rate (last in the NFL) because their 35.4% pressure rate is up to 18th. We see that replicated whether it’s against the blitz or not, suggesting it might be a general problem in Williams’ game.

Chicago also ranks 15th in PBWR, which is respectable. Similarly, the run-blocking numbers are fairly solid (0.91 RBYBC/rush, 15th), so it’s ambitious to blame the offensive line for this season’s collapse.

8) Washington Commanders
Regular-Season Grade: 83.5 (B)
Regular Season + Postseason Grade: 81.1 (B-; 7th)

On the season as a whole, the Commanders’ offensive line did a good job in pass protection, given just how long Jayden Daniels holds the ball (3.01 seconds; seventh). Whether it’s in the face of the blitz or not, he’s in the top 10 for both in time to throw (or be sacked).

Therefore, while the pressure numbers don’t look elite (34.4%), in the context of the time they are blocking, they’re respectable. That is reflected in a top-10 ranking in PBWR entering Week 18.

In the run game, the Commanders’ RBs only averaged 0.89 YBC/rush, but ESPN ranks Washington’s line as the second-best in RBWR.

The Commanders’ offensive line did not perform well in the NFC Championship Game (D+). They finished with two of the worst four performances in run blocking, with 0.53 RBYBC/rush against the Eagles’ front four. We feared this might be the case after Washington struggled in the Wild Card round, but their bounce back against Detroit offered some hope.

The pass-blocking numbers look fine on the surface, with a 34.5% pressure rate and a 5.8% sack rate. However, Daniels consistently got the ball in under three seconds, suggesting their quarterback helped salvage those numbers with his play.

The main concern came against the blitz, where they allowed a 57.1% pressure rate. Daniels did well in escaping pressure and getting the ball out, which means Washington’s line didn’t give up a sack against the blitz.

The Bears rank 24th in the PFF offensive line rankings.

"While Chicago’s offensive line failed to reach the potential many saw in it in the preseason, the unit was better than many people gave it credit for. Four of the Bears’ five projected starters earned PFF overall grades above 70.0, and all five topped 65.0. However, injuries and Caleb Williams’ pocket movement and awareness did the group no favors, resulting in the line allowing the most sacks in the NFL (37).

The Bears may have surrendered the most sacks in the league, but they were “only” the 12th-worst offensive line in PFF pass-blocking efficiency rating (84.1). The unit allowed 180 total pressures on 682 pass plays."

[patryk7754]

Stevenson is probably getting a chance to impress them this summer. Al Harris is on him like missile lock. He sent Stevenson to camp already

I think al Harris may be the most underrated addition so far.

I don’t imagine major changes to our defense outside of adding a true pass rusher at DE. I only see us getting a starter at DT if we have the opportunity to draft graham.

I wouldn’t be surprised if we got a third rotational safety. Seen a hand full of times that Allen likes a real fluid safety that can shift between multiple roles for FS/SS. I think byard fills that somewhat but not very much.

[dice]

Ideally we get one DT, one Edge and one olineman in our first 3 picks. Fill in the rest of the Oline in FA.

FA comes first

[moorhosj]

re-sign - jenkins - 2 years, 34 mil (21 guaranteed) - overpay, but good contract length
mekhi becton - 26 yo OL - 2 years, 27 mil - excellent rookie season as LT, good last year as RG, major regression/

I don't see how one could justify paying the older, injury prone, and worse performing Jenkins to a larger contract than Becton. It's time to move on from Jenkins.

My biggest problem with Jenkins isn't the injuries that force him to miss games, it is how often he takes himself out of games with an injury. This was his healthiest season with 14 starts, but if you look deeper, you see he only played 65% of the snaps despite starting 82% of the games.

This messes up the entire O-Line for the game as they play a man down and a back-up has to step in. It also hurts roster construction as you essentially need an extra roster spot and a 3rd starter at Guard.

[dice]

re-sign - jenkins - 2 years, 34 mil (21 guaranteed) - overpay, but good contract length
mekhi becton - 26 yo OL - 2 years, 27 mil - excellent rookie season as LT, good last year as RG, major regression/

I don't see how one could justify paying the older, injury prone, and worse performing Jenkins to a larger contract than Becton. It's time to move on from Jenkins.

snaps per season:

552 jenkins
546 becton

age next season:

26 becton
27 jenkins

snap-weighted career PFF grade:

75 jenkins
66 becton

PFF FA G rank:

3 jenkins
6 becton ("Becton is the latest in a very long line of star pupils to attend Jeff Stoutland University in Philadelphia, working with arguably the league’s best offensive line coach to get his career back on track.)

would becton regress in chicago?

[moorhosj]

snaps per season:
552 jenkins
546 becton

age next season:
26 becton
27 jenkins

snap-weighted career PFF grade:
75 jenkins
66 becton

PFF FA G rank:
3 jenkins
6 becton ("Becton is the latest in a very long line of star pupils to attend Jeff Stoutland University in Philadelphia, working with arguably the league’s best offensive line coach to get his career back on track.)

would becton regress in chicago?

Yea, Becton has had injuries. Twice he missed the entire year, otherwise he has been healthy. Jenkins missed one year, then has missed multiple games every other year in the league. The past two years Becton has played 95% and 88% of his team's snaps. Just last year Jenkins played 738 snaps to Becton's 1,158.

Correct, Becton is younger.

The snap-weighted grade is misleading because Becton played tackle many more games than Jenkins did. He even played Left Tackle, which actually gives him valuable versatility.

I do think it is possible that Becton regresses away from the Eagles, that is the biggest risk of signing him. I also think it is possible that he progresses in his second year playing guard. Based on Pro-Football Reference, Teven Jenkins has already regressed and Becton just had the best year of his career playing a brand new position. There is also the possibility that Becton wants a chance to start at Tackle again and some team may offer that.

If the PFF free agent grades represent what front offices think (they don't), that would be great. It means we could get a deal on Becton. I notice that you didn't comment on how often Jenkins removes himself from games and the subsequent impact on team building/game preparation. There is an actual cost to having to pay/draft another starting-caliber guard, unless there is some belief or reason that Jenkins will stop pulling himself from games moving forward.

[fleet]

I kind of like the theoretical idea of letting Tevin Jenkins give the Bears an opportunity to go D-line early in the draft. Or letting him give the Bears more money to spend on both lines instead of the mega contract for Smith. I don’t have too much of a problem giving Jenkins another chance at RG, or just using Jenkins as a place holder for a final solution. Why, because Kiran is here potentially to back Jenkins up, and I like Kiran’s potential to be that solution, and at some point Kiran may require a chance to make good on his potential anyway as a 3RP. Poles will want to recover some value from the decision to draft Kiran. And also, the Bears are bound to draft a couple Guards pretty high, so having a nominal solution in the meantime before the picks come through the season is not crazy. So if the Bears take care of LG and center, and Caleb’s safety is improving, it’s not that bad of an idea. But it depends on what the market thinks of rolling the dice on Jenkins too to make this an affordable option to try.

The Bears are not likely to try very hard to make this happen though from what I understand. But it’s not crazy. They shouldn’t close the door completely. The downside is not that big as long as some playable veteran is on the roster in case everything failed, not to mention younger players with potential.

[nomorezorro]

Read on Twitter

starting to think he might be the guy if he's there at 10, especially if you think he has LT versatility

[dice]

snaps per season:
552 jenkins
546 becton

age next season:
26 becton
27 jenkins

snap-weighted career PFF grade:
75 jenkins
66 becton

PFF FA G rank:
3 jenkins
6 becton ("Becton is the latest in a very long line of star pupils to attend Jeff Stoutland University in Philadelphia, working with arguably the league’s best offensive line coach to get his career back on track.)

would becton regress in chicago?

Yea, Becton has had injuries. Twice he missed the entire year, otherwise he has been healthy. Jenkins missed one year, then has missed multiple games every other year in the league. The past two years Becton has played 95% and 88% of his team's snaps. Just last year Jenkins played 738 snaps to Becton's 1,158.

given that jenkins seems to have chronic issues and becton has been healthy for 2 years, i would agree that jenkins is more of an injury risk

Correct, Becton is younger.

a year difference in age well before age 30 is not a significant factor. especially on a 2 year deal

The snap-weighted grade is misleading because Becton played tackle many more games than Jenkins did. He even played Left Tackle, which actually gives him valuable versatility.

jenkins started at LT in his injury plagued rookie season. becton had rookie success there but was a disaster when he returned from injury. as i noted, though, becton could take over for braxton in 2026

If the PFF free agent grades represent what front offices think (they don't), that would be great. It means we could get a deal on Becton.

you said becton was the better player. there is no evidence for that. and PFF is not alone in their analysis. if there is publicly available front office polling info on guards out there, by all means lemme know!

I notice that you didn't comment on how often Jenkins removes himself from games and the subsequent impact on team building/game preparation. There is an actual cost to having to pay/draft another starting-caliber guard, unless there is some belief or reason that Jenkins will stop pulling himself from games moving forward.

a player SHOULD remove himself if he does not feel he can be effective due to injury. he should also get credit for trying. backups should be prepared at all times to come in

finally, as i noted, the jenkins deal would be significantly more than the expectation. plus, LGs are generally compensated a bit better (though not to the extent of LT over RT) due to the "blind side" fallacy. player quality does not always translate appropriately to compensation

p.s.: the devil you know...nate davis was more consistently good than becton when he came here

[moorhosj]

you said becton was the better player. there is no evidence for that. and PFF is not alone in their analysis.

The evidence comes from Pro-Football Reference. They gave Jenkins an Approximate Value (AV) of 5 last year and they gave Becton an AV of 7. It's not the be-all-end-all of ratings, but an example of analysis that rates Betons as the better player last year.

Jenkins AV: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/J/JenkTe00.htm
Becton AV: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BectMe00.htm

a player SHOULD remove himself if he does not feel he can be effective due to injury. he should also get credit for trying. backups should be prepared at all times to come in

A player having to continually pull themselves out of games should not "get credit for trying" in the NFL. If they were hurt going in then they shouldn't have played and cost their team a player on the 48-man gameday roster. If they start and have to come out it absolutely impacts the OLine as the replacement didn't practice with the rest of the group. Oline continuity is talked about all the time and having a guy consistently remove himself from games doesn't help continuity.

You don't have to listen to me, listen to Brad Biggs on Jenkins:

I don’t believe they will be inclined to attempt to re-sign Teven Jenkins, who left yesterday’s game with a calf injury. He’s been on the injury report with five different body parts this season. I think he needs a fresh start elsewhere. I think the best-case scenario for Teven might be a one-year prove-it deal, go out there and show you can get on the field and stay on the field. I just don’t know that’s the case, I’ve never seen an offensive lineman leave games with such regularity.

[Chi town]

Biggs floating Dalman.

https://www.bleachernation.com/bears/2025/02/17/bears-center-options/

[dice]

you said becton was the better player. there is no evidence for that. and PFF is not alone in their analysis.

The evidence comes from Pro-Football Reference. They gave Jenkins an Approximate Value (AV) of 5 last year and they gave Becton an AV of 7. It's not the be-all-end-all of ratings, but an example of analysis that rates Betons as the better player last year.

Jenkins AV: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/J/JenkTe00.htm
Becton AV: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BectMe00.htm

i've seen it before and can't make any sense of it. you can't grade a lineman on raw stats, which is the kind of site that is. i assume it's like PER in basketball except there has been no attempt to market or explain it. which would be fine if there weren't people doing much deeper dives. anyway, you are the first person i have ever seen cite AV (which values mayfield and wirfs over burrow...and gibbs over henry) to argue one player over another

a player SHOULD remove himself if he does not feel he can be effective due to injury. he should also get credit for trying. backups should be prepared at all times to come in

A player having to continually pull themselves out of games should not "get credit for trying" in the NFL.

that would be true if it were a description of an actual player

You don't have to listen to me, listen to Brad Biggs on Jenkins:

I don’t believe they will be inclined to attempt to re-sign Teven Jenkins, who left yesterday’s game with a calf injury. He’s been on the injury report with five different body parts this season. I think he needs a fresh start elsewhere. I think the best-case scenario for Teven might be a one-year prove-it deal, go out there and show you can get on the field and stay on the field. I just don’t know that’s the case, I’ve never seen an offensive lineman leave games with such regularity.

i agree with almost all of that! but even if that last sentence is true, you have to account for who the backup is. can you even name who the bears backup LG was w/o looking it up? you want a teven jenkins who feels good enough to practice to give up reps to his backup in case he has to play on sunday? THAT screws up continuity as much as jenkins pulling himself out of a game does!