Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition

[winforlose]

Dude I don’t know how much clear I can make this, you either lose Naz or you cannot sign traditional minimums and stay under the hard cap. No players with any years of experience. That means 3 undrafted players and the Utah second. You keep forgetting that you are rolling multiple salaries into one while also adding a hard cap. You are the one who keeps saying we can keep Naz. Well if this true pick a number and run it using the math I gave you.

Using untested players is not what we did last year at all. Our top 8 was Mike (one of the oldest players in the league,) Ant (ascending superstar,) Jaden (Elite defender with 4 years of experience,) KAT (Multi time honors,) Rudy (multi time honors,) Naz (5 years vet and constantly improving,) NAW (series of solid performances last year including huge game in the play in,) and Kyle Anderson. Beyond them JMAC and Morris where not unknowns. TJ Warren was a project that we abandoned, and we traded away the other end of bench guys for Monte. You are talking about a top 8 with TSJ and Clark to guys who are both going to be sophomores with notable flaws in their game and very limited experience. Behind them you want guys Finch won’t play and undrafteds. This conversation is silly. Do the math realize what you are asking for and realize that this team has no depth and one serious injury ends the seasons. Plus KD at 37 and expiring is not a player likely to stay on a bad team and not likely to maintain his high level of play. This is the kind of move that kills basketball in Minnesota.

If they are "guys Finch won't play" why spend extra money on them?

You are so worried about guys 11th through 15th on the roster that you're willing to sacrifice a Top 5 guy or not add another Top 3 guy to the team...

Gonna double respond because you are under a misconception. Minott costs $2,187,451, Miller costs $2,221,677. Any minimum with two years of experience costs $2,296,274. In other words Minott and Miller are actually cheaper than going out and getting someone with comparable experience. You are loading spots 9-15 with players who are all below the standard vet minimum of 3 years + experience (the amount of experience the league subsidizes,) and #9 and #10 are guys Finch has had numerous opportunities to play and chosen not to. 11 is a high 2nd who usually would spend a year in Iowa. 12-14 are undrafted. So let’s assume 2 of our top 8 get hurt for a real length of time. Maybe 1-2 months. Do you really think playing 6 deep and backfilling with crap is a winning formula?

[Klomp]

It's amazing how much goalposts get moved in order to fit in whatever narrative you want.

If guys like Shannon and Clark are so far away from being able to help out an NBA rotation, then why have fans spent the last 5 months begging Finch to extend the rotation out to 11-12 guys in order to give them guaranteed rotation minutes every night?

Everyone is hating on Finch playing veterans like Joe Ingles over the young guys, so why suddenly do we get mad if we might need to add more rookies or first year guys to the very end of the rotation over guys who make more money just because you want just to have their contracts partially subsidized by the league?

[winforlose]

It's amazing how much goalposts get moved in order to fit in whatever narrative you want.

If guys like Shannon and Clark are so far away from being able to help out an NBA rotation, then why have fans spent the last 5 months begging Finch to extend the rotation out to 11-12 guys in order to give them guaranteed rotation minutes every night?

Everyone is hating on Finch playing veterans like Joe Ingles over the young guys, so why suddenly do we get mad if we might need to add more rookies or first year guys to the very end of the rotation over guys who make more money just because you want just to have their contracts partially subsidized by the league?

I am trying very hard to take this in the spirit it was intended and not… something worse.

You take a young player with potential and you give them minutes to develop them. You don’t make them 20+ minute per night and essential role guys, you work them in. For example, a half rotation under Finch is usually 5-6 minutes. So instead of giving Minott a half rotation, give him a full rotation of 10-12 minutes. Same with TSJ and Dilly. That means now you need to cut back on other guys minutes. This also keeps those other guys healthier and fresher deeper into the season. So maybe DDV and Ant play a few less minutes and sit at strategic times to help develop the young players. Now if/when someone gets hurt the guys stepping in can scale up from 10-12 to 20+ without being as significant a drop off in talent. Gonna put this in caps to help you grasp the concept more clearly. A MINUTE FOR A YOUNG PLAYER HELPS THEM LEARN, AND HELPS THEM DEVELOP CHEMISTRY WHILE ADJUSTING TO PACE AND INTENSITY OF THE NBA. The same is not true of 37 year old Joe Ingles or G league bound Luka Garza.

You are talking about changing young guys from development projects to actual full top 8 rotation players including in the playoffs. You are doing it without significant talent behind them if they fail, get injured, or we discover they cannot fit the roles we wanted them too. Adding undrafted guys is not the same as adding rookies. Most 2nd round players don’t develop into NBA rotation players, that is even more common for undrafteds. You are not talking about bringing in real NBA vets to play key roles or provide key depth, you are talking about G league players who often belong on two ways and even then don’t play much. You are talking guys like Jesse Edwards who are a step below Garza as your backup C. Newton was the 44th pick in the draft and he is a two way who cannot get minutes, he would be too good for what we are discussing. It is not simply about money, it is about loading up the team with sub standard talent and praying that our top 6 stays healthy for 82 games plus playoffs.

Oh and if you haven’t noticed, I hate our current roster construction. You are talking about taking a flamethrower to the mess we have now and trying to build a contender in the charred remains. This isn’t a mythological firebird we are talking about, it is last years Phoenix Suns, and they got swept. I know because I watched the Wolves sweep them.

[Klomp]

Oh and if you haven’t noticed, I hate our current roster construction. You are talking about taking a flamethrower to the mess we have now and trying to build a contender in the charred remains. This isn’t a mythological firebird we are talking about, it is last years Phoenix Suns, and they got swept. I know because I watched the Wolves sweep them.

Isn't part of the reason you hate it because of the guards/wings? So wouldn't consolidation be a good thing?

[Klomp]

A few other thoughts based on some recent commentary:
-Yes, Conley has "fallen off" this year. But that isn't just an indictment on any and all 37-year olds. He's falling off as a 37-year old 6-foot guard. If Durant "falls off", he will still be an elite shooter, an elite weapon with plus size and length for either forward position.
-Note: Don't be surprised if Conley plans to retire this summer. Yes, it's not an immediate cap savings via retirement, but I could see him used as a trade piece to either Memphis or Utah ahead of his retirement announcement where a different team absorbs the contract. Heck, maybe Phoenix would want to keep him with Jones and Morris both UFAs. So penciling him in your Top 8 here is likely futile.
-A trade for Durant would be a further investment in Edwards. For those who think Ant needs a floor-spacing lineup, I would argue that Durant would be an ideal forward to play him with. That's not even factoring their established relationship and how much a move like that would mean for both players.

[shrink]

I tend to think that Tim Connelly can’t trade for Durant without wrecking his reputation with our players, and future free agents.

I think he needs to keep his promise to Mike Conley that he made during Mike’s contract negotiations last summer, and not trade him and force him to move his family again.

I also think you have to give Gobert at least one full season here. He opted out of a higher player option to sign longterm here at a lower number. I think he deserves at least one year here before it would be ethical to trade him. And besides, we need the guy.

Without those pieces, MIN can’t shed enough salary to get below the first apron without getting rid of pieces for the future, like Ant, Jaden and Naz. I would tend to think DDV is unlikely to be traded, perhaps his cheap three year deal is the jewel of the KAT trade, and he could be our starting PG next year.

Even if Julius Randle was to take his player option, I don’t think we can put together enough salary under the first apron to make a legal trade. We also would struggle to include enough trade value. That is a shame, because Durant is one of the ten best players in the NBA, even at his current age.

[Klomp]

I tend to think that Tim Connelly can’t trade for Durant without wrecking his reputation with our players, and future free agents.

I think he needs to keep his promise Mike Conley to Mike Conley that he made during Mike’s contract negotiations last summer, and not trade him and force him to move his family again.

I also think you have to give Gobert at least one full season here. He opted out of a higher player option to sign longterm here at a lower number. I think he deserves at least one year here before it would be ethical to trade him. And besides, we need the guy.

Without those pieces, MIN can’t shed enough salary to get below the first apron without getting rid of pieces for the future, like Ant, Jaden and Naz. I would tend to think DDV is unlikely to be traded, perhaps his cheap three year deal is the jewel of the KAT trade, and he could be our starting PG next year.

Even if Julius Randle was to take his player option, I don’t think we can put together enough salary under the first apron to make a legal trade. We also would struggle to include enough trade value. That is a shame, because Durant is one of the ten best players in the NBA, even at his current age.

1. This is where what I noted in my previous post applies. If Conley is already planning on retiring, trading him becomes purely for financial reasons and wouldn't be backing out of a promise.

[winforlose]

I tend to think that Tim Connelly can’t trade for Durant without wrecking his reputation with our players, and future free agents.

I think he needs to keep his promise Mike Conley to Mike Conley that he made during Mike’s contract negotiations last summer, and not trade him and force him to move his family again.

I also think you have to give Gobert at least one full season here. He opted out of a higher player option to sign longterm here at a lower number. I think he deserves at least one year here before it would be ethical to trade him. And besides, we need the guy.

Without those pieces, MIN can’t shed enough salary to get below the first apron without getting rid of pieces for the future, like Ant, Jaden and Naz. I would tend to think DDV is unlikely to be traded, perhaps his cheap three year deal is the jewel of the KAT trade, and he could be our starting PG next year.

Even if Julius Randle was to take his player option, I don’t think we can put together enough salary under the first apron to make a legal trade. We also would struggle to include enough trade value. That is a shame, because Durant is one of the ten best players in the NBA, even at his current age.

1. I think any Mike trade probably includes his blessing. But I also suspect if Mike does come back next year it might be for less minutes they he wants. It is a balancing act and the promise is somewhat weakened by his fall off in performance. That said I agree trading Mike is a bad idea and likely doesn’t happen.

2. Rudy got a lot of money into his later years. Declining an option and taking a short term loss for long term gain is not the same as what Mike did. Rudy got more money in his later years instead of going into this coming year with nothing promised beyond it. If he blew out his knee or tore his Achilles without future guaranteed money that would cost him a lot more than 12 million.

3. Randle is in a tough spot. If he opts in (cannot get better money elsewhere,) he is taking that same risk Rudy would have taken. If he blows out a knee or tears his Achilles then he will lose a lot more than 6-8 million he might have to swallow to opt out and renegotiate for long term security. If Randle is willing to be a 6th man and play for 22-24 million, I would love to keep him long term.

4. Do you truly believe that trading for KD makes us a contender? If no then there is no point. If yes please explain to me what it is about KD’s numbers and abilities that are such a radical step forward? I laid out above that Randle gives you a lot of what KD gives you at half the price or less. Naz also gives you a lot of what KD gives you. With the draft capital we could draft the C of the future, use the taxpayer MLE to sign another guard who legit helps us bridge to Dilly, and we can keep both Naz and NAW. Then the following year when KD is a free agent, if he wants to ring chase, he can come here and play with his good buddy Ant, without costing us multiple key players and draft picks.

[cmoss84]

If you can have a nucleus of Ant, Jaden, KD, and Naz, you have to. Right?

[winforlose]

If you can have a nucleus of Ant, Jaden, KD, and Naz, you have to. Right?

Of course not. Durant played Beal, Booker, Allen, and Nurk and had decent support staff behind it and got swept. Having KD is not an auto win button. Those 4 together are not a contender by themselves. We cannot even be sad would stay if we had a bad year. He has at most 3 years left and will do what he always does, go to the team with the best chance of getting a ring.

[winforlose]

$186,832,499. I did the math, and if you can get Naz to take 23 million, Randle to take 22, and pick up Minott’s option while keeping Leonard and dumping Garza this is how much the following players cost

1. Ant
2. Rudy
3. Jaden
4. Naz
5. Randle
6. DDV
7. Conley
8. Dilly
9. Shannon
10. Minott
11. Miller

$207,824,000 -$186,832,499 =$20,991,501.00. For that money if we could sign Clark to a Hinkie, sign 2 draft picks, sign NAW, and a tax payer MLE guard or big (draft the other with the Det pick,) we are an improved roster, under the 2nd apron, and have options going into 2026/27. Will Randle stay for that little, Naz accept that amount, NAW be affordable in that range? All good questions. Who to sign with the MLE, another good question. These are the questions I hope the FO is asking.

Edit to add: my apologies. I had Mike’s money added but not his roster spot. We would probably move Minott for a 2nd or 2. That actually frees up some money to pay NAW if we replace Minott’s money with the 2nd round pick. The first is uncertain but that money is set once we know the draft spot. NAW, the MLE player, and the first fill out the roster. Assuming the new ownership is willing to be a tax and first apron team while avoiding the 2nd apron.

[cmoss84]

If you can have a nucleus of Ant, Jaden, KD, and Naz, you have to. Right?

Of course not. Durant played Beal, Booker, Allen, and Nurk and had decent support staff behind it and got swept. Having KD is not an auto win button. Those 4 together are not a contender by themselves. We cannot even be sad would stay if we had a bad year. He has at most 3 years left and will do what he always does, go to the team with the best chance of getting a ring.

I'll take my 4...against your 4...skins and blouses. Lake Minnetonka let's go

[winforlose]

If you can have a nucleus of Ant, Jaden, KD, and Naz, you have to. Right?

Of course not. Durant played Beal, Booker, Allen, and Nurk and had decent support staff behind it and got swept. Having KD is not an auto win button. Those 4 together are not a contender by themselves. We cannot even be sad would stay if we had a bad year. He has at most 3 years left and will do what he always does, go to the team with the best chance of getting a ring.

I'll take my 4...against your 4...skins and blouses. Lake Minnetonka let's go

Who are my four? SGA, Chet, JW, and IHart? Or maybe Ja, JJJ, Bane, and Edey? Again, you have beat to the West before you get to the East. Also remember basketball isn’t 4 on 4 and isn’t played 48 minutes with your starters.

[FrenchMinnyFan]

Interesting debate here about KD. I'm not interested to get him for various reasons. He play well but for winning , he need a better player than him around and have been unable to win with Booker who is as good as ANT.

And the piece we have to give for him are way too high.

[Loaf_of_bread]

Kd trade could use its own thread with poll. Quite a bit of division amongst fans.

[cmoss84]

Of course not. Durant played Beal, Booker, Allen, and Nurk and had decent support staff behind it and got swept. Having KD is not an auto win button. Those 4 together are not a contender by themselves. We cannot even be sad would stay if we had a bad year. He has at most 3 years left and will do what he always does, go to the team with the best chance of getting a ring.

I'll take my 4...against your 4...skins and blouses. Lake Minnetonka let's go

Who are my four? SGA, Chet, JW, and IHart? Or maybe Ja, JJJ, Bane, and Edey? Again, you have beat to the West before you get to the East. Also remember basketball isn’t 4 on 4 and isn’t played 48 minutes with your starters.

I have faith in RD, Clark, Miller and cheap vets, trades or FA.

[winforlose]

I'll take my 4...against your 4...skins and blouses. Lake Minnetonka let's go

Who are my four? SGA, Chet, JW, and IHart? Or maybe Ja, JJJ, Bane, and Edey? Again, you have beat to the West before you get to the East. Also remember basketball isn’t 4 on 4 and isn’t played 48 minutes with your starters.

I have faith in RD, Clark, Miller and cheap vets, trades or FA.

You don’t trade for a KD to win a playoff series and try again next season. KD has at most 3 years left. Probably 2. He is more than likely gonna miss at least 20 games per season this year and next. You only acquire a KD when you have all the pieces in place to win a chip. RD is mostly negative minutes right now, Clark is Josh Okogie 2.0 until he shows consistent offense, and Miller is someone the coach refuses to play (preferring Luka Garza, and not the good Iowa Luka Garza, the Luka Garza that ate some funky chicken and looks like he is about to both crap and vomit all overhimself at the same time.) Tell me why you think we are one KD trade away from the chip and why having 23/24 Karl was that much worse than 25/26 KD to make it suddenly work when it failed with a more talented team?

[Klomp]

Kd trade could use its own thread with poll. Quite a bit of division amongst fans.

9 more pages until this thread hits retirement and 6 months until any trade of any kind can be made, I think we're probably fine.

[Klomp]

Who are my four? SGA, Chet, JW, and IHart? Or maybe Ja, JJJ, Bane, and Edey? Again, you have beat to the West before you get to the East. Also remember basketball isn’t 4 on 4 and isn’t played 48 minutes with your starters.

I have faith in RD, Clark, Miller and cheap vets, trades or FA.

You don’t trade for a KD to win a playoff series and try again next season. KD has at most 3 years left. Probably 2. He is more than likely gonna miss at least 20 games per season this year and next. You only acquire a KD when you have all the pieces in place to win a chip. RD is mostly negative minutes right now, Clark is Josh Okogie 2.0 until he shows consistent offense, and Miller is someone the coach refuses to play (preferring Luka Garza, and not the good Iowa Luka Garza, the Luka Garza that ate some funky chicken and looks like he is about to both crap and vomit all overhimself at the same time.) Tell me why you think we are one KD trade away from the chip and why having 23/24 Karl was that much worse than 25/26 KD to make it suddenly work when it failed with a more talented team?

23-24 Karl was out of position. He might be a 95 right now at C with the roster construction of the Knicks, but was probably an 80 last year here with the roster construction we had.

[Loaf_of_bread]

Kd trade could use its own thread with poll. Quite a bit of division amongst fans.

9 more pages until this thread hits retirement and 6 months until any trade of any kind can be made, I think we're probably fine.

Lol, unretire, and then delete my thread should i choose to make one.