Eye opening analytical breakdown of Paolo and Franz, wow this doesn’t look good.

[eyriq]

This thread should be locked due to malicious intent.

I just ignore this particular poster, but the agenda is strong with him. Hates ownership, hates management, hates the team, has outrageous takes on the daily, boundless energy.

[three3d]

This thread should be locked due to malicious intent.

I just ignore this particular poster, but the agenda is strong with him. Hates ownership, hates management, hates the team, has outrageous takes on the daily, boundless energy.

Outrageous takes , hmmmm what did I say so outrageous?

[msmoore66]

I think you should try reading the room a bit.

As you mentioned earlier, I clearly didn't watch the video but why would I feel motivated to with a thread title of "Eye opening analytical breakdown of Paolo and Franz, wow this doesn’t look good." Perhaps if you had started out with "Interesting Analysis of Paolo and Franz: Discuss" it would garner more constructive interaction?

[JoshuaPotter]

As it was stated at the beginning of the season.

The eye test shows us what the numbers seem to back up.

The offense simply isn’t efficient without a distributor to get either guy in better positions to score. They are OK but not elite at running the offense at the point of attack. They are better scoring options.

Oh for heavens sake (not directed at you) you and me figured it out years ago. P+F+anything that equals anything remotely close to an NBA pointguard would be a 500 team. We said that in Paolo rookie season. He is legit, Franz is legit. The ball / creation hasn't come along. We need Suggs + Black to either have a huge leap or find the next distributor. Not a day goes by where I dont whistfully look up Cason Wallace or Scoot Henderson and ask if all our picks + the pick that ended up being TDS be worth one of em.

Black still his giga upside skill wise. Suggs, is the head of the defensive snake. Yet currently neither are showing the creative or floor spacing potential that Franz + Paolo need to establish NBA dominance. 2nd round or ECF? Yes I think so. Beyond that? Not sure.

[thelead]

This board has gone mad and I’m not talking about the OP.

[three3d]

I think you should try reading the room a bit.

As you mentioned earlier, I clearly didn't watch the video but why would I feel motivated to with a thread title of "Eye opening analytical breakdown of Paolo and Franz, wow this doesn’t look good." Perhaps if you had started out with "Interesting Analysis of Paolo and Franz: Discuss" it would garner more constructive interaction?

I have an honest question for you and I just want you to answer it. Does Paolo’s statistical breakdown advanced analytics look good to you? When you answer that honestly to yourself and say no please refer back up to the title of this thread. No THIS DOESN’T LOOK GOOD

[KillMonger]

In science iirc the injury period would be the control right? So considering how he played in the playoffs, and considering how he started this season..... Then the injury.... Then his play after that.... I mean why overcomplicate something that's rather simple? Occams razor, all things considered the simplest solution is the best one... If you know he's playing considerably under his normal level, and you know the cause... Then why does it make sense to dig into numbers that don't represent the player we know he can be? Then try to extrapolate those numbers to try and predict what player he will be? The numbers can't account for the effects this injury is having on him, been back for weeks but is only now starting to get some rhythm back

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[three3d]

In science iirc the injury period would be the control right? So considering how he played in the playoffs, and considering how he started this season..... Then the injury.... Then his play after that.... I mean why overcomplicate something that's rather simple? Occams razor, all things considered the simplest solution is the best one... If you know he's playing considerably under his normal level, and you know the cause... Then why does it make sense to dig into numbers that don't represent the player we know he can be? Then try to extrapolate those numbers to try and predict what player he will be? The numbers can't account for the effects this injury is having on him, been back for weeks but is only now starting to get some rhythm back

Sent from my [Sidekick 5G] using RealGM mobile app

The data is broken down by season. You can’t throw out two and a half seasons of data for a 7 game playoff series.

[KillMonger]

In science iirc the injury period would be the control right? So considering how he played in the playoffs, and considering how he started this season..... Then the injury.... Then his play after that.... I mean why overcomplicate something that's rather simple? Occams razor, all things considered the simplest solution is the best one... If you know he's playing considerably under his normal level, and you know the cause... Then why does it make sense to dig into numbers that don't represent the player we know he can be? Then try to extrapolate those numbers to try and predict what player he will be? The numbers can't account for the effects this injury is having on him, been back for weeks but is only now starting to get some rhythm back

Sent from my [Sidekick 5G] using RealGM mobile app

The data is broken down by season. You can’t throw out two and a half seasons of data for a 7 game playoff series.

That's where some people skew, I just can't take anyone serious that just looks at a Stat sheet and doesn't watch the games..... These articles and videos coming out are from clear casuals in terms of magic content they don't watch the games..... They look at the stat sheet at a stretch of games and see the numbers "is Paolo regressing?" you can't quantify the effects the injury is having on a player.... And I'm not sure I should be that worried about 22 year old Paolo banchero 3 or 4 years away from his prime.....if it's an examination, let it be that just leave the agendas out of it

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[Ducklett]

In science iirc the injury period would be the control right? So considering how he played in the playoffs, and considering how he started this season..... Then the injury.... Then his play after that.... I mean why overcomplicate something that's rather simple? Occams razor, all things considered the simplest solution is the best one... If you know he's playing considerably under his normal level, and you know the cause... Then why does it make sense to dig into numbers that don't represent the player we know he can be? Then try to extrapolate those numbers to try and predict what player he will be? The numbers can't account for the effects this injury is having on him, been back for weeks but is only now starting to get some rhythm back

Sent from my [Sidekick 5G] using RealGM mobile app

The data is broken down by season. You can’t throw out two and a half seasons of data for a 7 game playoff series.

You might wanna call up the Franz haters who decided he was a bust after that Cavs series. They were many.

When they write this clickbait crap the reactions in this thread are what they are looking for because engagement = money.

Yall all fell for it and I wouldn't be shocked if OP also had something to do with the video they posted.

Paolo sucks post injury, it is what it is. Maybe he gets better, maybe he doesn't. Maybe we trade him over the summer for Booker. Who the hell knows. What I can tell you is raging out at other Magic fans over percentages and stats when you could just go rewatch the Cavs series last year and see what players did what is insane to me.

Lol that’s a REACH to suggest I have something to do with the posted video. Wow!! Look the stats are official NBA stats, take 5 minutes of your time to look them up yourself. Raging out at other Magic fans, huh?

I am raging at the current era of "sports journalism" not you or any other Magic fan. Obviously you having something to do with the video was in jest. You guys take this stuff way too seriously. But now you got my conspiracy brain engaged and I am wondering why you would get so heated over something so silly unless you really did have something to do with the video.

[GelbeWand09]

Paolo will always be bad analytically, but he is the player you need as a go-to guy. Because he can score anywhere on the floor.

I can't name single star player in nba history who had bad analytic data and was best player on championship team?
You know why? Because analytical data just shows what players do on the floor based on their performances.
If player has "bad analytics" it just means he isn't that good of a player, not because data says it but because his playing/Playstyle/performances aren't adding much to wins.


People just overcomplicate what sport's analytics really are. They are stopwatch in race. They don't impact race, just give you perspective. You can look at it like a semi finals Olympic race. You have two groups, in one group guy goes 7th of 8 and relative to his opposition he is "slow".
But in other semi final race winner is - fastest among competition but his passing time is below 7th in other race.

Now it's important to ask yourself what does that mean ( context of data) . More data you have, closer to truth you get.

For example, retrospective of EPM in years when EPM didn't exist.
Two out of 5 leaders in EPM in 2007 were Ginobili and Duncan. Guess who won title with 4 losses through playoffs ?
Neither Duncan or Manu had some eye popping numbers, mostly because neither were shot chasing (14 & 11 FGA ). But final result proves EPM , as data - works.

Sorry for the hard works but that fendilim statement is pretty much absurd and wrong. It's really fascinating how fan mentality works. It's like you are fresh in love and you see only the things you wanna see and you ignore everything bad. Paolo doesn't become a impact Superstar just because people wants him to be. It's crazy how almost 3 years of data are ignored (4 when you include Dukes underperforming offense, relative to the talent) but but but.... 2-3 very good games vs. The Cavs are the "real" Paolo.
Again, he hit constantly fadeaway jumpers from midrange in those games (because he couldn't beat Mobley 1 on 1). Just check his midrange stats over his career and tell me how high the chance is that happens in more than 1 round.
People doesn't seem to realize how fuccckkking gooood you have to be on offense in today's leaque to be the best player of a contender, when you are not a 2way player.
Jokic and Luka are maybe top 1-8 offensive players of all time. Just legendary good offensive players. That's the measuring stick for a constant best player on a contender as a 1 way player. Especially for Bigs when defense is more important.
Than you have Towns who is elite offensive one way player but this only leads to a No. 2 on a contender.
When you are only a around leaque average efficiency one way big you are Julius Randle.
And sorry, this is Paolo so far in his career. We won because of defense and our bench and not because of 30+ USG on bad efficiency to lead our bottom 8th to worst offense in the leaque since Paolo is here.

That doesn't mean he won't become a impact player. He got the worst fitting players around him imaginable over those years. A PG and spacing gonna help him a lot but I still have a hard time to see Paolo ever as the best player on a contender.
He just isn't anywhere near as talented as Luka or Joker and he will never be a 2way player like Giannis, SGA, Tatum, Kawhi and Co. The top scorer sure, but we prolly need 2 better impact players than him. Franz + a high impact PG/combo guard. Plus we have to go away from that iso offense nonsense in general.

[pepe1991]

To me whole Paolo dilemma about impact boils down to one simple question: once Magic get PG, how willing is Paolo to play as rolling big and how good he will be at it.


If we get PG who can hit mid range, floater, make 3s and is masterful at creating angles and Paolo's game expends on that- yea, we will be contender.

But if we get PG and Paolo is still ball hogging for iso elbow scoring and good PG is used like traffic cone on offense, than Paolo simply isn't guy who will make you contender, rather Julius Randle type of player, guy who's stats are way better looking than his impact on basketball games.


And third, worst option is - Magic never get actual starting level PG, so we will be living in this "what if" hypothetical world for years, where Schrodinger's cat problem will still be a thing.


Btw, about his playoffs, not only that he shot 55% from mid range but 40% for 3, and yet his TS was just 54% . Even in complete outline of performances, his efficiency was still rather pretty damn mediocre.

[fendilim]

Paolo will always be bad analytically, but he is the player you need as a go-to guy. Because he can score anywhere on the floor.

I can't name single star player in nba history who had bad analytic data and was best player on championship team?
You know why? Because analytical data just shows what players do on the floor based on their performances.
If player has "bad analytics" it just means he isn't that good of a player, not because data says it but because his playing/Playstyle/performances aren't adding much to wins.


People just overcomplicate what sport's analytics really are. They are stopwatch in race. They don't impact race, just give you perspective. You can look at it like a semi finals Olympic race. You have two groups, in one group guy goes 7th of 8 and relative to his opposition he is "slow".
But in other semi final race winner is - fastest among competition but his passing time is below 7th in other race.

Now it's important to ask yourself what does that mean ( context of data) . More data you have, closer to truth you get.

For example, retrospective of EPM in years when EPM didn't exist.
Two out of 5 leaders in EPM in 2007 were Ginobili and Duncan. Guess who won title with 4 losses through playoffs ?
Neither Duncan or Manu had some eye popping numbers, mostly because neither were shot chasing (14 & 11 FGA ). But final result proves EPM , as data - works.

Sorry for the hard works but that fendilim statement is pretty much absurd and wrong. It's really fascinating how fan mentality works. It's like you are fresh in love and you see only the things you wanna see and you ignore everything bad. Paolo doesn't become a impact Superstar just because people wants him to be. It's crazy how almost 3 years of data are ignored (4 when you include Dukes underperforming offense, relative to the talent) but but but.... 2-3 very good games vs. The Cavs are the "real" Paolo.
Again, he hit constantly fadeaway jumpers from midrange in those games (because he couldn't beat Mobley 1 on 1). Just check his midrange stats over his career and tell me how high the chance is that happens in more than 1 round.
People doesn't seem to realize how fuccckkking gooood you have to be on offense in today's leaque to be the best player of a contender, when you are not a 2way player.
Jokic and Luka are maybe top 1-8 offensive players of all time. Just legendary good offensive players. That's the measuring stick for a constant best player on a contender as a 1 way player. Especially for Bigs when defense is more important.
Than you have Towns who is elite offensive one way player but this only leads to a No. 2 on a contender.
When you are only a around leaque average efficiency one way big you are Julius Randle.
And sorry, this is Paolo so far in his career. We won because of defense and our bench and not because of 30+ USG on bad efficiency to lead our bottom 8th to worst offense in the leaque since Paolo is here.

That doesn't mean he won't become a impact player. He got the worst fitting players around him imaginable over those years. A PG and spacing gonna help him a lot but I still have a hard time to see Paolo ever as the best player on a contender.
He just isn't anywhere near as talented as Luka or Joker and he will never be a 2way player like Giannis, SGA, Tatum, Kawhi and Co. The top scorer sure, but we prolly need 2 better impact players than him. Franz + a high impact PG/combo guard. Plus we have to go away from that iso offense nonsense in general.

I disagree. Paolo’s game now is bad analytically because his game relies heavily on midrange game. And advance stats hate midrange. Just watch the video OP posted, and you’ll see why. Just look at Tatum for example. Once he started shooting more 3s, his Ts% improved a lot.

One can even argue that despite Franz having a bad shooting year last year, his TS% is still higher than Paolo’s all star season last year.

But what analytics suggests isnt always right, Paolo is the guy you need as a go-to guy. Because when defender clamps you down, you’ll need to be able to shoot from anywhere on the court.

[jezzerinho]

Advance stats don't hate midrange shots. Stats don't hate anything unless they're built to treat those things with less importance.

I don't believe adv stats penalise midrange shots per se. The midrange is, for the average player or the aggregate bunch of players, a less productive shot, so stats suggest you should take more ofnthe other types.

But if you're good at the midrange it will still show up in the advanced stats.

[pepe1991]

Durant is one of most impactful players of past decade and also heavy mid range shooter, but in reality you simply have to be great at it to be valuable.

40% mid range is hard, return value is 0,8ppp
Every idiot can shoot 30% for 3 and return value is 0,9 ppp
Driving to a rim for elite slasher gives him over 1,3 ppp

Over time you just play numbers game.

[Bergmaniac]

There is way too muh defensiveness in this thread. The video just lists some stats and basically states what many of us have been saying for years.

And "analytics is not saying "Don't take midrange shots ever", having this shot as a legit option in your arsenal is a plus all things being equal, the actual idea is that for most (but not all players) the midrange is a low efficiency shot which should not be prioritised and the math for this is quite obvious. The problem in Paolo's shot selection is that there are way too many possessions where the midrange is his first choice without trying to get a better shot. Yes, our spacing is bad, which is a factor for this, but Franz plays with the same spacing, takes a similar amount of shots yet shoots way less midrange ones.

[Audi]

So OP posts an “eye opening analytical breakdown” in which an armchair stat head sets out to answer the following (this is verbatim from the guy’s mouth, btw):
“Is Paolo Banchero really one of the most talented rising stars in this league OR is he a chucker who is super inefficient and highly overrated?”

…gee, I wonder why there’s discourse and pushback on a fan forum.

[three3d]

So OP posts an “eye opening analytical breakdown” in which an armchair stat head sets out to answer the following (this is verbatim from the guy’s mouth, btw):
“Is Paolo Banchero really one of the most talented rising stars in this league OR is he a chucker who is super inefficient and highly overrated?”

…gee, I wonder why there’s discourse and pushback on a fan forum.

I didn’t make the video nor did I say or ask if Paolo was a rising star or an inefficient chucker, so yea pushback isn’t warranted towards me. I appreciated the statistical comparisons in the video and the clarity into what the numbers really reflected. For me I found the percentiles more helpful than the percentages.

Hearing someone has a 40% fg percentage doesn’t give me the whole picture, now if you tell me his fg percentage of 40% puts him in the 38th percentile I can see how bad that truly is when compared across the entire league.

[tiderulz]

In science iirc the injury period would be the control right? So considering how he played in the playoffs, and considering how he started this season..... Then the injury.... Then his play after that.... I mean why overcomplicate something that's rather simple? Occams razor, all things considered the simplest solution is the best one... If you know he's playing considerably under his normal level, and you know the cause... Then why does it make sense to dig into numbers that don't represent the player we know he can be? Then try to extrapolate those numbers to try and predict what player he will be? The numbers can't account for the effects this injury is having on him, been back for weeks but is only now starting to get some rhythm back

Sent from my [Sidekick 5G] using RealGM mobile app

The data is broken down by season. You can’t throw out two and a half seasons of data for a 7 game playoff series.

how many 2nd year players are efficient? without a real PG and a good offensive system. and even with that, he increased his PER and TS from his rookie year while also increasing his APG. his PER and shooting was better than Tatum's 2nd year also. This year, injury is the biggest factor for his play. 2nd is horrible offensive coaching.

[tiderulz]

There is way too muh defensiveness in this thread. The video just lists some stats and basically states what many of us have been saying for years.

And "analytics is not saying "Don't take midrange shots ever", having this shot as a legit option in your arsenal is a plus all things being equal, the actual idea is that for most (but not all players) the midrange is a low efficiency shot which should not be prioritised and the math for this is quite obvious. The problem in Paolo's shot selection is that there are way too many possessions where the midrange is his first choice without trying to get a better shot. Yes, our spacing is bad, which is a factor for this, but Franz plays with the same spacing, takes a similar amount of shots yet shoots way less midrange ones.

this is Paolo's 3rd year, most lost to an injury. How could people have been "saying it for years"?