Eye opening analytical breakdown of Paolo and Franz, wow this doesn’t look good.

[three3d]

There is way too muh defensiveness in this thread. The video just lists some stats and basically states what many of us have been saying for years.

And "analytics is not saying "Don't take midrange shots ever", having this shot as a legit option in your arsenal is a plus all things being equal, the actual idea is that for most (but not all players) the midrange is a low efficiency shot which should not be prioritised and the math for this is quite obvious. The problem in Paolo's shot selection is that there are way too many possessions where the midrange is his first choice without trying to get a better shot. Yes, our spacing is bad, which is a factor for this, but Franz plays with the same spacing, takes a similar amount of shots yet shoots way less midrange ones.

this is Paolo's 3rd year, most lost to an injury. How could people have been "saying it for years"?

Years = Seasons

[tiderulz]

There is way too muh defensiveness in this thread. The video just lists some stats and basically states what many of us have been saying for years.

And "analytics is not saying "Don't take midrange shots ever", having this shot as a legit option in your arsenal is a plus all things being equal, the actual idea is that for most (but not all players) the midrange is a low efficiency shot which should not be prioritised and the math for this is quite obvious. The problem in Paolo's shot selection is that there are way too many possessions where the midrange is his first choice without trying to get a better shot. Yes, our spacing is bad, which is a factor for this, but Franz plays with the same spacing, takes a similar amount of shots yet shoots way less midrange ones.

this is Paolo's 3rd year, most lost to an injury. How could people have been "saying it for years"?

Years = Seasons

ok, Years, Seasons, people couldn't have said it for more than 2 years/seasons, when thats all he has played in the NBA.

[CocoaFan]

These types of threads and articles like Elaine Blum's "Franz Wagner has a chance to replace Paolo Banchero as Orlando's super star" on Orlando Magic Daily do nothing but provide negativity and divide the fan base and potentially the team. There's no rule that you can't have multiple super stars and as fans we should support both. Paolo is going through a rough time trying to come back from injury and people need to take that into account. He's a young player that's been asked to provide a big part of our offense and his efficiency will improve with time. Give the guy a break and stop piling on.

Dividing the fan base by talking about a players stats and percentiles lol seriously? Because I address statistical facts doesn’t mean I dislike Paolo, hell it doesn’t even mean I think Paolo sucks to be honest because I know he doesn’t suck. But those numbers paint a clear picture and it’s a picture that can be changed. You say Paolo is going through a rough time trying to come back from an injury, the numbers say differently.

Year 1 Paolo
Rim- 61.3% 40th percentile
Mid range - 36.6%. 19th percentile
3PT- 29.8 %. 13th percentile

Year 2 Paolo
Rim- 60.8%. 42nd percentile
Mid range- 39.4% 33rd percentile
3PT- 33.8% 33rd percentile


We’ve all seen him missing the bunny shots around the rim, year 2 he was in the bottom 42% of the league in finishing around the rim. That’s pretty crazy when you see those numbers. And it’s also why I’ve said before Paolo can be suck a great player by just fixing a few things. Just looking at his stats alone they look good but when you actually put perspective on them, you can see how much better he could be.

I'm not disagreeing with you about Paolo being an inefficient player so far in his career. What I'm saying is when a young player is asked to do more than they're ready to take on they are going to be inefficient. Give him a couple years and he'll figure it out. Getting down on him (not just you) and over reacting will do nothing for him and nothing to make the Magic better.

[Bergmaniac]

Plenty of young players never figure it out.

[three3d]

When you pay attention to box scores and players stats for every game of the season one players stats jump off the page to me because they have seemingly all but vanished.

If you look at Goga’s stats for each game you’ll see he was having himself a nice season, then January 10th it drastically changed. In fact Goga hasn’t had a single double double since prior to January 10th. January 10th is of course the return of Paolo back into the starting lineup. Is it just coincidental? Sure maybe, I can’t say definitively Paolo’s return affected Goga’s game, usage rate and stats definitely point to that as a possibility.

Another thing about that time frame and Goga’s game and stats, January 10th Paolo came back the very next game January 12th Goga left the court apparently trying to tear away at his jersey heading to the tunnel for an injury. Does anybody even know how Goga wound up with a concussion? His injury in that game was not a head injury, a concussion came out of nowhere.

[fendilim]

When you pay attention to box scores and players stats for every game of the season one players stats jump off the page to me because they have seemingly all but vanished.

If you look at Goga’s stats for each game you’ll see he was having himself a nice season, then January 10th it drastically changed. In fact Goga hasn’t had a single double double since prior to January 10th. January 10th is of course the return of Paolo back into the starting lineup. Is it just coincidental? Sure maybe, I can’t say definitively Paolo’s return affected Goga’s game, usage rate and stats definitely point to that as a possibility.

Another thing about that time frame and Goga’s game and stats, January 10th Paolo came back the very next game January 12th Goga left the court apparently trying to tear away at his jersey heading to the tunnel for an injury. Does anybody even know how Goga wound up with a concussion? His injury in that game was not a head injury, a concussion came out of nowhere.

i wouldnt attribute it to Goga. Goga and Paolo were complementary last year.

[Last Guardian]

I think you think you are saying something revolutionary, but most people agree Franz is the best player on the team....

Paolo is frustrating. You see a guy who can handle, pass and score and is bigger than Giannis. He should be dominating like crazy. But he settles for inefficient shots, drives into traffic, and often seems like he's just not paying attention. Compare that to Franz who always looks laser focused.

We are all hoping he figures it out. I love Franz but he's not getting us a championship. He's not that guy. They are gonna have to tag team this...but we need them both to be pretty high level.

[three3d]

I think you think you are saying something revolutionary, but most people agree Franz is the best player on the team....

Paolo is frustrating. You see a guy who can handle, pass and score and is bigger than Giannis. He should be dominating like crazy. But he settles for inefficient shots, drives into traffic, and often seems like he's just not paying attention. Compare that to Franz who always looks laser focused.

We are all hoping he figures it out. I love Franz but he's not getting us a championship. He's not that guy. They are gonna have to tag team this...but we need them both to be pretty high level.

No I don’t think I’m saying anything revolutionary at all, it’s more eye opening perspective. I didn’t know myself he was ranking in the bottom 40th percentile in the League in key areas. It’s one thing to watch the shots during a game and realize he’s settling for bad shots or missing ones he should be making. It’s entirely different when you contextualize that into an understanding of visually where he’s ranking across the league.

[tiderulz]

I think you think you are saying something revolutionary, but most people agree Franz is the best player on the team....

Paolo is frustrating. You see a guy who can handle, pass and score and is bigger than Giannis. He should be dominating like crazy. But he settles for inefficient shots, drives into traffic, and often seems like he's just not paying attention. Compare that to Franz who always looks laser focused.

We are all hoping he figures it out. I love Franz but he's not getting us a championship. He's not that guy. They are gonna have to tag team this...but we need them both to be pretty high level.

No I don’t think I’m saying anything revolutionary at all, it’s more eye opening perspective. I didn’t know myself he was ranking in the bottom 40th percentile in the League in key areas. It’s one thing to watch the shots during a game and realize he’s settling for bad shots or missing ones he should be making. It’s entirely different when you contextualize that into an understanding of visually where he’s ranking across the league.

the fact that Paolo went from 42% from the field and 30% from 3 his rookie year to 45% from the field and 34% from 3, shows his shot is improving. He also had Suggs last year, granted at SG, but Jalen has been out since Paolo came back. Who is helping him with passes, KCP? Cole Anthony?

[Audi]

So OP posts an “eye opening analytical breakdown” in which an armchair stat head sets out to answer the following (this is verbatim from the guy’s mouth, btw):
“Is Paolo Banchero really one of the most talented rising stars in this league OR is he a chucker who is super inefficient and highly overrated?”

…gee, I wonder why there’s discourse and pushback on a fan forum.

I didn’t make the video nor did I say or ask if Paolo was a rising star or an inefficient chucker, so yea pushback isn’t warranted towards me. I appreciated the statistical comparisons in the video and the clarity into what the numbers really reflected. For me I found the percentiles more helpful than the percentages.

Hearing someone has a 40% fg percentage doesn’t give me the whole picture, now if you tell me his fg percentage of 40% puts him in the 38th percentile I can see how bad that truly is when compared across the entire league.

I know you didn’t make the video - but it’s a great example of most people’s take on analytics - that numbers can be bent to tell you if a player is a star or a bum.

Even thinking you are getting a proper indication of “how bad 40% shooting is” via league percentiles is ill informed. Think about it - what can you really glean about a player shooting 40%, when that number is held against a background of players in varying situations? Bench players? Deep bench? Starters playing alongside solid distributors or alongside other superstars getting them easy looks? “He’s only in the 38th percentile!” Ok, so what does that actually mean when, say, 95% of the players counted in the statistic don’t see anything close to the same defensive attention? When they don’t face doubles and triple teams?
The only eye opening thing about analytics is that you are better off just opening your eyes and watching. People can make numbers say whatever they want them to say. That’s how you got roped into a video titled “the Paolo problem”, posted by the same guy who also has a video titled “the Giannis problem”.

[Bensational]

Paolo’s FTA/game for each ‘month’ he has played this season:

October (5gm): 11.8
January (10gm): 7.1
February (7gm): 4.9

That has been the main decline in his game this season. That’s his scoring X factor and superpower and for whatever reason the refs have been giving him a less favourable whistle as the season goes on.

Gotta figure out what’s behind that and why the calls have stopped coming for him.

[three3d]

Paolo’s FTA/game for each ‘month’ he has played this season:

October (5gm): 11.8
January (10gm): 7.1
February (7gm): 4.9

That has been the main decline in his game this season. That’s his scoring X factor and superpower and for whatever reason the refs have been giving him a less favourable whistle as the season goes on.

Gotta figure out what’s behind that and why the calls have stopped coming for him.

I don’t know how much it has to do with it, or if any at all honestly but Paolo does do a lot of complaining to the referee’s during the game. I get the frustration and see all the missed calls, it’s probably pretty tough honestly to officiate someone as big, and fast or fluid like Paolo. But I don’t think he’s doing himself any favors saying something to the refs every time down something is called. I’m on both sides of it as a fan honestly.

[jezzerinho]

When you pay attention to box scores and players stats for every game of the season one players stats jump off the page to me because they have seemingly all but vanished.

If you look at Goga’s stats for each game you’ll see he was having himself a nice season, then January 10th it drastically changed. In fact Goga hasn’t had a single double double since prior to January 10th. January 10th is of course the return of Paolo back into the starting lineup. Is it just coincidental? Sure maybe, I can’t say definitively Paolo’s return affected Goga’s game, usage rate and stats definitely point to that as a possibility.

Another thing about that time frame and Goga’s game and stats, January 10th Paolo came back the very next game January 12th Goga left the court apparently trying to tear away at his jersey heading to the tunnel for an injury. Does anybody even know how Goga wound up with a concussion? His injury in that game was not a head injury, a concussion came out of nowhere.

Because the return signalled the end of the Franz/Goga PnR (the real Boogie and the Beast?).

The whole world can see that for Orlando to be successful, Paolo needs to fit into the Franz-led PnR ( unless we some day get an actual PG). But at the same time Paolo needs to get out of this funk and get his confidence back.

Is he capable of being his best version and deferring to a degree to a better-working system? Who knows...

[eyriq]

Paolo is now an 88 in 2K. That's the real news here.

[Jaxfann]

I don't think Paolo has fully recovered from his injury and he does not look as fit as he was. He is definitely less aggressive going to the hoop since his return.

[Skybox]

Interesting how Paolo is subject to such criticism, but other guys drafted just a year later, not that many slots behind, in a "loaded" draft get some kind of amnesty for their difficulties (basically sucking) and get to eternally have "kind of like their real rookie year" while our only All-Star gets dissected for carrying our whole offense on his broad shoulders with only one teammate consistently playing like a legit NBA player - but isn't as efficient as we expect.

Maybe he could have used a year in the G League

[Bensational]

Paolo’s FTA/game for each ‘month’ he has played this season:

October (5gm): 11.8
January (10gm): 7.1
February (7gm): 4.9

That has been the main decline in his game this season. That’s his scoring X factor and superpower and for whatever reason the refs have been giving him a less favourable whistle as the season goes on.

Gotta figure out what’s behind that and why the calls have stopped coming for him.

I don’t know how much it has to do with it, or if any at all honestly but Paolo does do a lot of complaining to the referee’s during the game. I get the frustration and see all the missed calls, it’s probably pretty tough honestly to officiate someone as big, and fast or fluid like Paolo. But I don’t think he’s doing himself any favors saying something to the refs every time down something is called. I’m on both sides of it as a fan honestly.

All the stars complain relentlessly to the officials. It’s an annoying part of the process for getting their attention on future plays. It hurts us most when he does so at the expense of transition defense, but he’s not the only player guilty of that - WCJ and Goga have both picked up the habit.

Right now Paolo’s best form is to regain his high FTr to be a SGA/Harden level foul drawer. That’s how we get the best out of him short term and in the playoffs.

[anothermagicfan]

Paolo’s FTA/game for each ‘month’ he has played this season:

October (5gm): 11.8
January (10gm): 7.1
February (7gm): 4.9

That has been the main decline in his game this season. That’s his scoring X factor and superpower and for whatever reason the refs have been giving him a less favourable whistle as the season goes on.

Gotta figure out what’s behind that and why the calls have stopped coming for him.

I don’t know how much it has to do with it, or if any at all honestly but Paolo does do a lot of complaining to the referee’s during the game. I get the frustration and see all the missed calls, it’s probably pretty tough honestly to officiate someone as big, and fast or fluid like Paolo. But I don’t think he’s doing himself any favors saying something to the refs every time down something is called. I’m on both sides of it as a fan honestly.

All the stars complain relentlessly to the officials. It’s an annoying part of the process for getting their attention on future plays. It hurts us most when he does so at the expense of transition defense, but he’s not the only player guilty of that - WCJ and Goga have both picked up the habit.

Right now Paolo’s best form is to regain his high FTr to be a SGA/Harden level foul drawer. That’s how we get the best out of him short term and in the playoffs.

They all complain to the refs. Every player on every team every time they think they got fouled. It's probably the worst part of the game. Most of them complain when a foul is called against them too.

[MasterGMer]

Man, I hate to read this. Does this efficiency number take into consideration someone is creating the shots and someone is taking the created shots? Paolo is Magic's number 1 option and everyone knows that and do we have stats to compare those players?

On this team, I am gradually to accept Franz has been just plain and simply efficient and important. But why does us Magic fans have to choose either? Is Magic trading Paolo?

But in terms of building a contender, we do need our stars to be efficient and effective. There are so many dynamics in doing so. In my opinion, Magic needs to make a big trade to get here instead of just relying solely on organic rebuild. But is it going to happen? How? Also remember, it is by luck also.

Yes, this season has been disappointing. But the true prize is the playoffs. We shall see in April.

[Audi]

Paolo: “I think me, Franz, and Suggs should be more offensive hubs. I don’t necessarily want to be a point guard.”

Some fans: “…anyway, ignore that…let me tell you about something I call the Paolo Problem”