2025 NBA Draft Prospect Part 3

[Yallbecrazy]

Lebron was an elite prospect who also hit his 97-99th percentile outcome in my opinion.
Personally I think Luka was a better prospect who hit somewhere around 60-70th percentile outcome.
Lebron had 0 jumper and 0 post skills entering the NBA.
Flagg is not at the level of Lebron as a prospect, but I wouldn't say he's far off.
I was talking about archetype previously. He's an incredible athlete, with great feel for the game and bbiq. He's not as athletic as Lebron obviously, and not the same passer either. However he is damn good at both, and more polished.
When you factor in age, play style, and durability concerns I think Flagg is pretty close to Zion. I think he's one of the top 5 prospects in the last 20 years.

[Yallbecrazy]

Look at his outlier stats:
https://www.tankathon.com/players/cooper-flagg

He checks every box I look for, about half as elite level and half as very good.
He's also the youngest player in the draft.


A Scottie Barnes floor is a good comparison, or an out of athletic prime Lebron James as a ceiling. (Like 32-36 year old Lebron)

[Indeed]

holy crap, Zvon 0-9 from three. Was it due to defensive pressure from Broome? His 3 point % is usually high

I think it might be a good idea to dangle Dick for another 2025 pick or two. We're clogged at SG and we need defense/big men.

Not that I'm giving up on Dick, I think he's still developing.

He had 1 really off night or else they would've beaten the #1 team in Auburn without Boogie Fland.

Z actually got 8 rebounds , 2 steals and 3 blocks. Portland 2nd pick or another one would be fine to draft him as a project. He's like 7'2 Chris Boucher.

He is most likely an undraft due to not able to change direction when moving backward (hip). Does not have the lateral quickness of Boucher against switch.

I still like him, and would not mind him with a 2-way contract, but very unlikely for him to get NBA minutes due to his defense.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

Look at his outlier stats:
https://www.tankathon.com/players/cooper-flagg

He checks every box I look for, about half as elite level and half as very good.
He's also the youngest player in the draft.


A Scottie Barnes floor is a good comparison, or an out of athletic prime Lebron James as a ceiling. (Like 32-36 year old Lebron)

The difference is Flagg is much more nimble, willing and aggro attacking the basket and has significantly better shooting markers.

[Indeed]

i actually found a guy who had a nonexistent dribble jumper in college who produces like mcneeley -

kyle kuzma

now kuzma's shooting splits suck but in part the reason for this is because while he added dribble j volume to his game, he never actually became competent at it. in part because he was never actually good at it in the first place.

I might not get the whole importance of dribble jumpers. But, here is a list of what some of the top guys look like:

Read on Twitter

VJ and Harper are at 25% on dribble jumpers, but I think it doesn't take away from their other skills scoring the ball.

For me, % is less important in this chart and volume is more important. It gives you a sense of who has the ability/talent to create their own shots. It's especially important from 3, as that is where you're going to have the most impact on manipulating the opposing defense.

Flagg's 40% from 3 is less valuable because he clearly can't create that shot with confidence. Dylan Harper's volume is more valuable in that context.

And looking at overall shot location may give better understanding
Flagg

Code: Select all

DUNKS            At the rim                  Other 2-PT                  3-Pt Jumpers   
Tot    Pct.       Tot    Pct.    Ast'ed       Tot    Pct.    Ast'ed       Tot    Pct.    Ast'ed
27-29   93.1%      85-138   61.6%   30.6%      50-115   43.5%   36.0%      37-101   36.6%   89.2%


Johnson

Code: Select all

DUNKS            At the rim                  Other 2-PT                  3-Pt Jumpers   
Tot    Pct.       Tot    Pct.    Ast'ed       Tot    Pct.    Ast'ed       Tot    Pct.    Ast'ed
7-9   77.8%      40-64   62.5%   20.0%      65-152   42.8%   18.5%      60-161   37.3%   70.0%


Edgecomb

Code: Select all

DUNKS            At the rim                  Other 2-PT                  3-Pt Jumpers   
Tot    Pct.       Tot    Pct.    Ast'ed       Tot    Pct.    Ast'ed       Tot    Pct.    Ast'ed
27-29   93.1%      58-92   63.0%   41.4%      27-72   37.5%   25.9%      36-103   35.0%   86.1%


Harper

Code: Select all

DUNKS            At the rim                  Other 2-PT                  3-Pt Jumpers   
Tot    Pct.       Tot    Pct.    Ast'ed       Tot    Pct.    Ast'ed       Tot    Pct.    Ast'ed
8-8   100.0%      99-145   68.3%   18.2%      17-61   27.9%   17.6%      40-120   33.3%   57.5%


Jakucionis

Code: Select all

DUNKS            At the rim                  Other 2-PT                  3-Pt Jumpers   
Tot    Pct.       Tot    Pct.    Ast'ed       Tot    Pct.    Ast'ed       Tot    Pct.    Ast'ed
1-1   100.0%      62-89   69.7%   27.4%      15-40   37.5%   0.0%      43-127   33.9%   37.2%


Fears

Code: Select all

DUNKS            At the rim                  Other 2-PT                  3-Pt Jumpers   
Tot    Pct.       Tot    Pct.    Ast'ed       Tot    Pct.    Ast'ed       Tot    Pct.    Ast'ed
5-5   100.0%      71-126   56.3%   25.4%      30-70   42.9%   6.7%      27-96   28.1%   66.7%


Lee

Code: Select all

DUNKS            At the rim                  Other 2-PT                  3-Pt Jumpers   
Tot    Pct.       Tot    Pct.    Ast'ed       Tot    Pct.    Ast'ed       Tot    Pct.    Ast'ed
1-1   100.0%      76-155   49.0%   35.5%      15-39   38.5%   0.0%      39-113   34.5%   35.9%


Code: Select all

Unassisted   DUNKS (finishing)         At the rim
Tier 1      Flagg, Edgecomb               Flagg (59), Harper (81)
Tier 2      Johnson, Harper, Fears      Jakucionis (45), Fears (53), Lee (49)
Tier 3      Jakucionis, Lee               Edgecomb (34), Johnson (32)



Code: Select all

Unassisted   Other 2-PT                              3-Pt Jumpers   
Tier 1      Johnson (53), Flagg (32)                  Jakucionis (27), Lee (25)
Tier 2      Edgecomb (20), Fears (28)                  Johnson (18), Harper (17), Fears (9)
Tier 3      Lee (15), Jakucionis (15), Harper (14)      Flagg (4), Edgecomb (5)



[Psubs]

Look at his outlier stats:
https://www.tankathon.com/players/cooper-flagg

He checks every box I look for, about half as elite level and half as very good.
He's also the youngest player in the draft.


A Scottie Barnes floor is a good comparison, or an out of athletic prime Lebron James as a ceiling. (Like 32-36 year old Lebron)

The difference is Flagg is much more nimble, willing and aggro attacking the basket and has significantly better shooting markers.

Would Flagg be a slightly more athletic Paulo Banchero with more STOCKS?

[Dalek]

Look at his outlier stats:
https://www.tankathon.com/players/cooper-flagg

He checks every box I look for, about half as elite level and half as very good.
He's also the youngest player in the draft.


A Scottie Barnes floor is a good comparison, or an out of athletic prime Lebron James as a ceiling. (Like 32-36 year old Lebron)

The difference is Flagg is much more nimble, willing and aggro attacking the basket and has significantly better shooting markers.

Would Flagg be a slightly more athletic Paulo Banchero with more STOCKS?

I think the Lebron hype is too much. I really like Flagg and he has a high ceiling but his shot creation is far from elite and he is playing on a stacked Duke team that makes his life easier - 7 foot dunk everything C, knock down shooter in Kon. He is their primary but his life is easier than most other prospects.

I do see him as elite defender in the NBA, and he will be able to playoff great players. It's why I love his fit in Toronto because he doesn't have to be 'the guy' right away.

I see a lot of Andrei Kirilenko. Obviously it is a different era where Kirilenko hardly shot the three ball, but he was a decent playmaker, and a very good secondary option.

[Indeed]

Look at his outlier stats:
https://www.tankathon.com/players/cooper-flagg

He checks every box I look for, about half as elite level and half as very good.
He's also the youngest player in the draft.


A Scottie Barnes floor is a good comparison, or an out of athletic prime Lebron James as a ceiling. (Like 32-36 year old Lebron)

The difference is Flagg is much more nimble, willing and aggro attacking the basket and has significantly better shooting markers.

More like the floor of Flagg is the ceiling of Barnes.

[niQ]

i actually found a guy who had a nonexistent dribble jumper in college who produces like mcneeley -

kyle kuzma

now kuzma's shooting splits suck but in part the reason for this is because while he added dribble j volume to his game, he never actually became competent at it. in part because he was never actually good at it in the first place.

I might not get the whole importance of dribble jumpers. But, here is a list of what some of the top guys look like:

Read on Twitter

VJ and Harper are at 25% on dribble jumpers, but I think it doesn't take away from their other skills scoring the ball.

I'm surprised Xavian Lee is listed with the others.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

Look at his outlier stats:
https://www.tankathon.com/players/cooper-flagg

He checks every box I look for, about half as elite level and half as very good.
He's also the youngest player in the draft.


A Scottie Barnes floor is a good comparison, or an out of athletic prime Lebron James as a ceiling. (Like 32-36 year old Lebron)

The difference is Flagg is much more nimble, willing and aggro attacking the basket and has significantly better shooting markers.

More like the floor of Flagg is the ceiling of Barnes.

Maybe. I'm not sure about Flagg's defensive ceiling. He's really good but doesn't have the WS to be elite IMO. It's reflected in his stock rates.

Flagg overall is way more aggro, better at younger age and way better shooting markers so he clears him easily.

I was worried about Flagg's splits earlier in the year but he reverted upwards and has even slightly exceeded what was expected.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

God the Raps need to win the lotto bad.

[BoyzNTheHood]

God the Raps need to win the lotto bad.

[UnbelievablyRAW]

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

Easily move IQ for him to start and develop. His shot isn't broken and he's already elite getting to the rim and finishing.

I feel he will have a Maxey trajectory coming into the league. Initially only an interior scorer that tightens up the shot to be more well rounded by year 3-4

[grant101]

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

Easily move IQ for him to start and develop. His shot isn't broken and he's already elite getting to the rim and finishing.

I feel he will have a Maxey trajectory coming into the league. Initially only an interior scorer that tightens up the shot to be more well rounded by year 3-4

He's so smooth. I don't know if we've ever had a player like him. He answers so many questions. Obviously a work in progress, but you can't teach his slinkiness with the ball. Reminds me of a big-bodied SGA with less of a mid-range game. What a great consolation prize for the team that misses out on Flagg.

[earthtone]

Lebron was an elite prospect who also hit his 97-99th percentile outcome in my opinion.
Personally I think Luka was a better prospect who hit somewhere around 60-70th percentile outcome.
Lebron had 0 jumper and 0 post skills entering the NBA.
Flagg is not at the level of Lebron as a prospect, but I wouldn't say he's far off.
I was talking about archetype previously. He's an incredible athlete, with great feel for the game and bbiq. He's not as athletic as Lebron obviously, and not the same passer either. However he is damn good at both, and more polished.
When you factor in age, play style, and durability concerns I think Flagg is pretty close to Zion. I think he's one of the top 5 prospects in the last 20 years.

.... what?? Luka is 25, has been 1st team All-NBA five times, and has already led his team to 2x Conference Finals and a Finals appearance. He was a truly special prospect, but in what world is he only at his 60-70th percentile outcome?

[BoyzNTheHood]

Any love for Micah Peavy as a second rounder/UDFA?

[ForeverTFC]

Was listening to Vecceni's latest mock and they said the middle of the lottery doesn't have middle of the lottery talent. Is it true that 5-14 is pretty weak this year?

[Flush]

Was listening to Vecceni's latest mock and they said the middle of the lottery doesn't have middle of the lottery talent. Is it true that 5-14 is pretty weak this year?

I don't know if I necessarily agree but based on their mock picks after the top 5 it does feel like they felt the prospects were more likely to succeed based on whom they were drafted to rather than just based on their own individual talents (like CMB to Bulls, Richardson to Heat, etc)

Obviously an organizations ability to recognize talent and fit matters a lot but I do feel like the talent in the lottery is quite good as long as you manage expectations

[LoveMyRaps]

Was listening to Vecceni's latest mock and they said the middle of the lottery doesn't have middle of the lottery talent. Is it true that 5-14 is pretty weak this year?

I'm high on the top 8 and then yeah, there's a dropoff in talent. Gonna be a lot of swing and misses outside of the top 10.

[dballislife]

the prospects in the 5-15 range most of them show poor defensive potential