Dan Z wrote:dougthonus wrote:If a team isn't getting enough value to gave up a high lottery pick under any circumstances, then you get into this situation with the 2nds.
Portland basically swapped DJJ for Nance, which isn't much value, and it's pretty easy to see where Portland was not going to ever gave up a lotto pick to make that swap.
Lauri wasn't going to get a whole ton of value, because we waited until he was a restricted free agent to try to move him.
Waiting too long. That seems like a typical move by AK.
Yeah, I had noted that in AK's first summer / deadline. You either want to commit to Lauri or you want to move him that summer / deadline before RFA, because you will get way less by waiting. At the time, more or less everyone was ready to move on from Lauri (including myself) which ended up being the wrong choice, but if you were going to move on, moving earlier would have gotten you a real return.
That said, it wasn't so bad. In comparison, the next summer, we signed Lonzo Ball (a 20M player) and gave up just a 2nd round pick. So we got a protected first for Lauri (a 15M player). Ignoring what happened later and just how the players were valued in the moment, our return on Lauri wasn't bad under the circumstances, but we would have got more acting earlier or obviously would have had a better player if we were patient and kept him.
In the end though, we took the lowest upside route, which is pretty standard for AK. He's likely 90% sure he wants to get rid of Lauri at the start of his reign (at least that's where fans were at), but by not being willing to risk the 10%, he massively lowered his return. The irony of course is that everyone was wrong and we should have kept him. Even waiting to be "sure", he didn't make the right evaluation AND got the lesser value.
I viewed Coby / Ayo in that boat this summer. I'm 90% sure I don't need these guys on their next market value contracts, go get picks now.
I viewed Zach / DeMar / Vuc / Caruso in that boat the year after 46 win season (90% sure this isn't going to work, trade them now).
But you are right, AK always waits to be even more sure, and the problem is that once he is that sure, so is the rest of the league.