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Josh Giddey - Conundrum Killer

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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#721 » by Chi town » Sun Feb 23, 2025 10:42 pm

DuckIII wrote:
Infinity2152 wrote:A few of us think Giddey would be best at PF. His numbers look remarkably similar to Johnson's except double the assists.



PF? Who is “a few of us”? You and the family of mice in your pocket?

I’m kidding. I lean much further to your general defense of Giddey’s offense than I do the more negative opinions. But he’s a point guard. You can hide him defensively on a wing who can’t score well if you can find one. But he certainly can’t guard 4s and if he were a 4 on offense then what you really mean is you run a 4 wing offense with one big.


Yep. Giddey is only a 4 if he’s next to great defensive 5 who is an eraser at the rim.

Theoretically he could be a 4 because all Billy’s guards play the 4.
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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#722 » by sco » Sun Feb 23, 2025 10:44 pm

Infinity2152 wrote:
League Circles wrote:
Infinity2152 wrote:

There are 5 starters. What's wrong with being the third or fourth option scorer, if you're leading the team in assists and second in rebounds? Does he have to be best or second best at everything?


I don't think there are any signs that he's likely to ever be the 3rd best scorer on a good team. 4th, maybe. But even a 4th best scorer on a good team's starting unit should probably not be the 4th or 5th best defender, which he will definitely always be. I also doubt he will be the 2nd best rebounder on a good team. I expect Matas will probably surpass him for us next year.


Your opinion is clear. I just happen to think you're wrong. The Thunder went 57-25 with him starting last year, playing 80 games. Year before they went 40-42 in the West with him starting. They didn't have Holgrem then and Jalen Williams was putting up 14 pts/gm. Giddey was the second leading scorer.

As far as Matas, his per 36 rebound numbers are 6.8. Giddey's per 36 is 9.1 and has never been lower than 8.9, his rookie year. By what possible metric would you expect Matas to become a better rebounder than Giddey? By next season?

Yeah, I see us going through next season without a #1 or #2 option on our roster. We'll have guys who default into those roles, and we'll be bad because of that...and that's a good thing for those of us looking for a good pick.

Giddey can be our #2 option next season. I want Matas to get there, but I don't think he'll be ready to take that on next season. We may be stuck with Coby chucking up shots next season as a tank solution. IMO our best starting 5 could look like:

Ball, Coby, Giddey, Matas, Smith
:clap:
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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#723 » by 2weekswithpay » Sun Feb 23, 2025 10:53 pm

Infinity2152 wrote:
So it's purely coincidence that Lavine and Vuc are having lights out shooting years, better than last year? Giddey hasn't affect that at all? The offense is not moving faster and more fluidly than last year?

Why a team does better when you sit is not all about the player. Who replaces him the most, Lonzo Ball?

Jalen Johnson last year did 16 pt, 9 rebounds and 3.6 assists in 34 minutes at 36% 3pt. The only season he shot above 31% from three, by the way, including this season. Giddey's per 36 this year is 16, 9 and 8 with 36% shooting. Roughly the same blocks and steals. How is what Jalen Johnson did better?

He doesn't have to be better at creating than Luka, Tra or Ja. They're getting way more than $30 mill in free agency. Is he a better creator than Jalen Johnson at $30 mill? A better shooter? Similar level rebounder? We are talking about the guy that's out for the rest of the season, giving them nothing, right? Who also only played 22 games his first season? Giddey's never played less than 54.

A few of us think Giddey would be best at PF. His numbers look remarkably similar to Johnson's except double the assists.

The year he scored 17 on low efficiency he was 20. So you don't think he's gotten any more efficient, nor will he get more efficient in the last two years or the next 4, the probable length of his next contract?

If you want to evaluate over the whole season, not just January (the part you want to look at), his TS% is 55.1. Right around PG average.


Lavine no. Lavine's shooting early in the season was unsustainable but he's proven to be an elite shooter. Vuc's numbers were fake. Nobody's buying Vuc shooting 45% from 3, he doesn't have the body of work and unsurprisingly, he's shooting under 30% from 3 in 2025. The offense being faster has more to do with no Derozan and an emphasis on playing fast. The Bulls' pace with Gidey on the court is 102.1 and without him, the pace is 103.2.

Giddey's on/off numbers in OKC were similar with him not being a difference maker on offense. Lonzo isn't a good offensive player right now, most of his value comes from his defense. If you're going to pay Giddey 30M, it shouldn't matter who replaces him. This team isn't talented enough for this to be an issue.

Jalen Johnson isn't a liability on defense and was just above league-average in efficiency. He doesn't have the same issues defensively or finishing at the rim because of his superior athleticism.

I don't think or expect him to be those guys but if you're going to pay Giddey and put the ball in his hands I expect him to be capable of running a respectable NBA offense. Giddey hasn't shown that he can run a league-average NBA offense. Why pay him 30M when there isn't much statistical evidence that having him out there makes your offense better? Johnson isn't a creator and the Hawks don't ask him to be one.

Giddey is more efficient than before that much is undeniable however he's still below league average. I expect him to max out at around league-average efficiency.
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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#724 » by Chi town » Mon Feb 24, 2025 12:15 am

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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#725 » by League Circles » Mon Feb 24, 2025 12:30 am

Infinity2152 wrote:
League Circles wrote:
Infinity2152 wrote:

There are 5 starters. What's wrong with being the third or fourth option scorer, if you're leading the team in assists and second in rebounds? Does he have to be best or second best at everything?


I don't think there are any signs that he's likely to ever be the 3rd best scorer on a good team. 4th, maybe. But even a 4th best scorer on a good team's starting unit should probably not be the 4th or 5th best defender, which he will definitely always be. I also doubt he will be the 2nd best rebounder on a good team. I expect Matas will probably surpass him for us next year.


Your opinion is clear. I just happen to think you're wrong. The Thunder went 57-25 with him starting last year, playing 80 games. Year before they went 40-42 in the West with him starting. They didn't have Holgrem then and Jalen Williams was putting up 14 pts/gm. Giddey was the second leading scorer.

As far as Matas, his per 36 rebound numbers are 6.8. Giddey's per 36 is 9.1 and has never been lower than 8.9, his rookie year. By what possible metric would you expect Matas to become a better rebounder than Giddey? By next season? Are you expecting Giddey to be worse at absolutely everything after an offseason and a year with the team?

It's cool if we have different opinions. :)

I think what guys are saying he needs to be productive, great three point shooting, great defense, great penetrator, plus maintaining his rebounding and assists, that's not a $30 mill player. That unicorn is an automatic max guy. Probably super max. Giddey scoring 20 a game, flaming 3's with 7 assists and 8 rebounds? Locking down team's best player? All-Star. Matter of fact, since he's getting 36 minutes as a star, 22 pts, 8 assists, 9 rebounds. And second best defender and shooter on the team.

His per 36 numbers this season are astoundingly close to Jalen Johnson's contract year, who got $30 mill with injury history and weaker jumper, and Scottie Barnes, who got $44 mill.


OOPS, edit: sorry I misread you about Holmgren etc please disregard.


You're mistaken about last year with OKC. Holmgren started 82 games and Jalen averaged 19 ppg. Giddey was 4th in scoring volume and 5th in scoring efficiency among their starters, and the worst defender. Playing with a true superstar that we are unlikely to be able to get an equivalent to in SGA. Giddey then had his minutes severely reduced in the playoffs before eventually being benched.

I expect Matas to become a better rebounder because of his drastically better physical tools. Might not happen, but he's half a season in. We'll see.

I don't have an opinion on Jalen Johnson but I think Barnes is over hyped and overpaid.

Some of us like Giddey enough in a vacuum but just don't see as good or versatile enough to justify a long term commitment for even 4th or 5th-best-starter money with a team as bad as us. If he was already signed before Ball, Ayo and Coby and one of them was a FA this summer I'd be saying the same things about them. Once we sign him to starters money long term, we've simply made too many commitments for how bad we are.
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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#726 » by PJSteven22 » Mon Feb 24, 2025 12:33 am

Infinity2152 wrote:
League Circles wrote:
Infinity2152 wrote:

There are 5 starters. What's wrong with being the third or fourth option scorer, if you're leading the team in assists and second in rebounds? Does he have to be best or second best at everything?


I don't think there are any signs that he's likely to ever be the 3rd best scorer on a good team. 4th, maybe. But even a 4th best scorer on a good team's starting unit should probably not be the 4th or 5th best defender, which he will definitely always be. I also doubt he will be the 2nd best rebounder on a good team. I expect Matas will probably surpass him for us next year.


Your opinion is clear. I just happen to think you're wrong. The Thunder went 57-25 with him starting last year, playing 80 games. Year before they went 40-42 in the West with him starting. They didn't have Holgrem then and Jalen Williams was putting up 14 pts/gm. Giddey was the second leading scorer.

As far as Matas, his per 36 rebound numbers are 6.8. Giddey's per 36 is 9.1 and has never been lower than 8.9, his rookie year. By what possible metric would you expect Matas to become a better rebounder than Giddey? By next season? Are you expecting Giddey to be worse at absolutely everything after an offseason and a year with the team?

It's cool if we have different opinions. :)

I think what guys are saying he needs to be productive, great three point shooting, great defense, great penetrator, plus maintaining his rebounding and assists, that's not a $30 mill player. That unicorn is an automatic max guy. Probably super max. Giddey scoring 20 a game, flaming 3's with 7 assists and 8 rebounds? Locking down team's best player? All-Star. Matter of fact, since he's getting 36 minutes as a star, 22 pts, 8 assists, 9 rebounds. And second best defender and shooter on the team.

His per 36 numbers this season are astoundingly close to Jalen Johnson's contract year, who got $30 mill with injury history and weaker jumper, and Scottie Barnes, who got $44 mill.

The thunder were a better team with Giddey on the bench last year. Hence why his minutes dropped in the postseason as well. Also he was pedestrian at best last year in the regular season and at times this season as well. While this is a nice stretch from Giddey how sustainable is this play and how scalable can he be are two legit reasonable questions to ask. Regardless we should let the market decide his worth and be in such a rush to pay him.
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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#727 » by Infinity2152 » Mon Feb 24, 2025 12:50 am

League Circles wrote:
Infinity2152 wrote:
League Circles wrote:
I don't think there are any signs that he's likely to ever be the 3rd best scorer on a good team. 4th, maybe. But even a 4th best scorer on a good team's starting unit should probably not be the 4th or 5th best defender, which he will definitely always be. I also doubt he will be the 2nd best rebounder on a good team. I expect Matas will probably surpass him for us next year.


Your opinion is clear. I just happen to think you're wrong. The Thunder went 57-25 with him starting last year, playing 80 games. Year before they went 40-42 in the West with him starting. They didn't have Holgrem then and Jalen Williams was putting up 14 pts/gm. Giddey was the second leading scorer.

As far as Matas, his per 36 rebound numbers are 6.8. Giddey's per 36 is 9.1 and has never been lower than 8.9, his rookie year. By what possible metric would you expect Matas to become a better rebounder than Giddey? By next season? Are you expecting Giddey to be worse at absolutely everything after an offseason and a year with the team?

It's cool if we have different opinions. :)

I think what guys are saying he needs to be productive, great three point shooting, great defense, great penetrator, plus maintaining his rebounding and assists, that's not a $30 mill player. That unicorn is an automatic max guy. Probably super max. Giddey scoring 20 a game, flaming 3's with 7 assists and 8 rebounds? Locking down team's best player? All-Star. Matter of fact, since he's getting 36 minutes as a star, 22 pts, 8 assists, 9 rebounds. And second best defender and shooter on the team.

His per 36 numbers this season are astoundingly close to Jalen Johnson's contract year, who got $30 mill with injury history and weaker jumper, and Scottie Barnes, who got $44 mill.


OOPS, edit: sorry I misread you about Holmgren etc please disregard.


You're mistaken about last year with OKC. Holmgren started 82 games and Jalen averaged 19 ppg. Giddey was 4th in scoring volume and 5th in scoring efficiency among their starters, and the worst defender. Playing with a true superstar that we are unlikely to be able to get an equivalent to in SGA. Giddey then had his minutes severely reduced in the playoffs before eventually being benched.

I expect Matas to become a better rebounder because of his drastically better physical tools. Might not happen, but he's half a season in. We'll see.

I don't have an opinion on Jalen Johnson but I think Barnes is over hyped and overpaid.

Some of us like Giddey enough in a vacuum but just don't see as good or versatile enough to justify a long term commitment for even 4th or 5th-best-starter money with a team as bad as us. If he was already signed before Ball, Ayo and Coby and one of them was a FA this summer I'd be saying the same things about them. Once we sign him to starters money long term, we've simply made too many commitments for how bad we are.


Not mistaken about OKC. You said a good team can't win with him as the fourth scorer and fourth or fifth best defender. The Thunder won 57 games with him being around that. Keep focusing on the two games in the playoffs vs the entire 3 prior seasons and the start of the playoffs. He played 27 minutes a game the first series. They won 4-0. He played 25 minutes during the season, so his minutes actually increased the first series, not decreased.

Yes, SGA is great but several teams have 2-3 guys who equal or surpass the top 2-3 on OKC.

He played 13 minutes/gm the second series. They lost 2-4, after being tied 2-2 before benching him. I keep asking, how does this make it look right that OKC benched him?

I think part of the confusion is around what average starter pay should be. Think it's around $20 mill right now. So do you want to sign 29 year olds to 4 years/$80 who may be marginally better at this point? Or 22 year olds at 4yrs/$120 who still have to improve some?
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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#728 » by League Circles » Mon Feb 24, 2025 1:04 am

Infinity2152 wrote:
League Circles wrote:
Infinity2152 wrote:
Your opinion is clear. I just happen to think you're wrong. The Thunder went 57-25 with him starting last year, playing 80 games. Year before they went 40-42 in the West with him starting. They didn't have Holgrem then and Jalen Williams was putting up 14 pts/gm. Giddey was the second leading scorer.

As far as Matas, his per 36 rebound numbers are 6.8. Giddey's per 36 is 9.1 and has never been lower than 8.9, his rookie year. By what possible metric would you expect Matas to become a better rebounder than Giddey? By next season? Are you expecting Giddey to be worse at absolutely everything after an offseason and a year with the team?

It's cool if we have different opinions. :)

I think what guys are saying he needs to be productive, great three point shooting, great defense, great penetrator, plus maintaining his rebounding and assists, that's not a $30 mill player. That unicorn is an automatic max guy. Probably super max. Giddey scoring 20 a game, flaming 3's with 7 assists and 8 rebounds? Locking down team's best player? All-Star. Matter of fact, since he's getting 36 minutes as a star, 22 pts, 8 assists, 9 rebounds. And second best defender and shooter on the team.

His per 36 numbers this season are astoundingly close to Jalen Johnson's contract year, who got $30 mill with injury history and weaker jumper, and Scottie Barnes, who got $44 mill.


OOPS, edit: sorry I misread you about Holmgren etc please disregard.


You're mistaken about last year with OKC. Holmgren started 82 games and Jalen averaged 19 ppg. Giddey was 4th in scoring volume and 5th in scoring efficiency among their starters, and the worst defender. Playing with a true superstar that we are unlikely to be able to get an equivalent to in SGA. Giddey then had his minutes severely reduced in the playoffs before eventually being benched.

I expect Matas to become a better rebounder because of his drastically better physical tools. Might not happen, but he's half a season in. We'll see.

I don't have an opinion on Jalen Johnson but I think Barnes is over hyped and overpaid.

Some of us like Giddey enough in a vacuum but just don't see as good or versatile enough to justify a long term commitment for even 4th or 5th-best-starter money with a team as bad as us. If he was already signed before Ball, Ayo and Coby and one of them was a FA this summer I'd be saying the same things about them. Once we sign him to starters money long term, we've simply made too many commitments for how bad we are.


Not mistaken about OKC. You said a good team can't win with him as the fourth scorer and fourth or fifth best defender. The Thunder won 57 games with him being around that. Keep focusing on the two games in the playoffs vs the entire 3 prior seasons and the start of the playoffs. He played 26 minutes a game the first series. They won 4-0. He played 25 minutes during the season, so his minutes actually increased the first season, not decreased.

He played 13 minutes/gm the second series. They lost 2-4, after being tied 2-2 before benching him. I keep asking, how does this make it look right that OKC benched him?

I think part of the confusion is around what average starter pay should be. Think it's around $20 mill right now. So do you want to sign 29 year olds to 4 years/$80 who may be marginally better at this point? Or 22 year olds at 4yrs/$120 who still have to improve some?


I don't expect us to luck into a #1 as good as Shai.

I'd prefer to wait to sign somebody actually good, regardless of their age or position. Now that Zach is gone I don't really want to commit to anyone this summer.
Especially since the only other guy we've committed to long term is Patrick, which was already a mistake, because IMO Patrick and Giddey are both best at the 3 spot.

The notable thing about him being benched is that a good coach who knew him best thought it was the right thing to do to give his team the best chance to win. It's a way of pointing out that the skepticism about Giddey has been shared by others of note.

Giddey is ball dominant. Those types of players have huge impact on how good or bad their team is. So I don't really like the thought of making our first big commitment (or second after Patrick) being to an average starter, whether it's fair money or not. We're not short on average players. Yes I do think Giddey has somewhere between the 2nd to 5th most upside on our roster, which is certainly in his favor. I think Buzelis has more upside for sure, and then Coby, Smith, and believe it or not still Patrick lol are hard for me to decide on in terms of upside vs Giddey. But then I do definitely think Giddey has more upside than Ayo, Ball, Terry, and Phillips.

If we can keep him for 6th man money AND trade Ayo and possibly Coby also for actual good returns, then I'm more interested in keeping him. I don't really want him back at starters money on more than a one year deal with team option for year two.
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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#729 » by Infinity2152 » Mon Feb 24, 2025 1:04 am

PJSteven22 wrote:
Infinity2152 wrote:
League Circles wrote:
I don't think there are any signs that he's likely to ever be the 3rd best scorer on a good team. 4th, maybe. But even a 4th best scorer on a good team's starting unit should probably not be the 4th or 5th best defender, which he will definitely always be. I also doubt he will be the 2nd best rebounder on a good team. I expect Matas will probably surpass him for us next year.


Your opinion is clear. I just happen to think you're wrong. The Thunder went 57-25 with him starting last year, playing 80 games. Year before they went 40-42 in the West with him starting. They didn't have Holgrem then and Jalen Williams was putting up 14 pts/gm. Giddey was the second leading scorer.

As far as Matas, his per 36 rebound numbers are 6.8. Giddey's per 36 is 9.1 and has never been lower than 8.9, his rookie year. By what possible metric would you expect Matas to become a better rebounder than Giddey? By next season? Are you expecting Giddey to be worse at absolutely everything after an offseason and a year with the team?

It's cool if we have different opinions. :)

I think what guys are saying he needs to be productive, great three point shooting, great defense, great penetrator, plus maintaining his rebounding and assists, that's not a $30 mill player. That unicorn is an automatic max guy. Probably super max. Giddey scoring 20 a game, flaming 3's with 7 assists and 8 rebounds? Locking down team's best player? All-Star. Matter of fact, since he's getting 36 minutes as a star, 22 pts, 8 assists, 9 rebounds. And second best defender and shooter on the team.

His per 36 numbers this season are astoundingly close to Jalen Johnson's contract year, who got $30 mill with injury history and weaker jumper, and Scottie Barnes, who got $44 mill.

The thunder were a better team with Giddey on the bench last year. Hence why his minutes dropped in the postseason as well. Also he was pedestrian at best last year in the regular season and at times this season as well. While this is a nice stretch from Giddey how sustainable is this play and how scalable can he be are two legit reasonable questions to ask. Regardless we should let the market decide his worth and be in such a rush to pay him.


If the Thunder were a better team with him on the bench last year, why did they start him 80 games? Do you know something they didn't? Again, his minutes went UP the first series. They only dropped the second series. Facing Kyrie and Luka, maybe the two toughest guard covers in the league. And again, THEY LOST. So what if they benched him. They lost when they did it. To a team they were just 2-2 with. Great decision. They were probably using analytics to make that decision too.

By all means keep bringing up they benched him in the playoffs and dropped his minutes. I'll keep bringing up they lost both games and got bounced when they did that.
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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#730 » by Infinity2152 » Mon Feb 24, 2025 1:15 am

League Circles wrote:
Infinity2152 wrote:
League Circles wrote:
OOPS, edit: sorry I misread you about Holmgren etc please disregard.


You're mistaken about last year with OKC. Holmgren started 82 games and Jalen averaged 19 ppg. Giddey was 4th in scoring volume and 5th in scoring efficiency among their starters, and the worst defender. Playing with a true superstar that we are unlikely to be able to get an equivalent to in SGA. Giddey then had his minutes severely reduced in the playoffs before eventually being benched.

I expect Matas to become a better rebounder because of his drastically better physical tools. Might not happen, but he's half a season in. We'll see.

I don't have an opinion on Jalen Johnson but I think Barnes is over hyped and overpaid.

Some of us like Giddey enough in a vacuum but just don't see as good or versatile enough to justify a long term commitment for even 4th or 5th-best-starter money with a team as bad as us. If he was already signed before Ball, Ayo and Coby and one of them was a FA this summer I'd be saying the same things about them. Once we sign him to starters money long term, we've simply made too many commitments for how bad we are.


Not mistaken about OKC. You said a good team can't win with him as the fourth scorer and fourth or fifth best defender. The Thunder won 57 games with him being around that. Keep focusing on the two games in the playoffs vs the entire 3 prior seasons and the start of the playoffs. He played 26 minutes a game the first series. They won 4-0. He played 25 minutes during the season, so his minutes actually increased the first season, not decreased.

He played 13 minutes/gm the second series. They lost 2-4, after being tied 2-2 before benching him. I keep asking, how does this make it look right that OKC benched him?

I think part of the confusion is around what average starter pay should be. Think it's around $20 mill right now. So do you want to sign 29 year olds to 4 years/$80 who may be marginally better at this point? Or 22 year olds at 4yrs/$120 who still have to improve some?


I don't expect us to luck into a #1 as good as Shai.

I'd prefer to wait to sign somebody actually good, regardless of their age or position. Now that Zach is gone I don't really want to commit to anyone this summer.
Especially since the only other guy we've committed to long term is Patrick, which was already a mistake, because IMO Patrick and Giddey are both best at the 3 spot.

The notable thing about him being benched is that a good coach who knew him best thought it was the right thing to do to give his team the best chance to win. It's a way of pointing out that the skepticism about Giddey has been shared by others of note.

Giddey is ball dominant. Those types of players have huge impact on how good or bad their team is. So I don't really like the thought of making our first big commitment (or second after Patrick) being to an average starter, whether it's fair money or not. We're not short on average players. Yes I do think Giddey has somewhere between the 2nd to 5th most upside on our roster, which is certainly in his favor. I think Buzelis has more upside for sure, and then Coby, Smith, and believe it or not still Patrick lol are hard for me to decide on in terms of upside vs Giddey. But then I do definitely think Giddey has more upside than Ayo, Ball, Terry, and Phillips.

If we can keep him for 6th man money AND trade Ayo and possibly Coby also for actual good returns, then I'm more interested in keeping him. I don't really want him back at starters money on more than a one year deal with team option for year two.


I'll agree with 1-2 most potential with Mata, I'd still lean towards Giddey. But even as the second most talented and potential, that's exactly why we shouldn't let money be the main factor. The thing we need most is talent and potential. trust me, the Bulls will spend that $30 mill on someone. There's no way a Giddey contract 4 yrs/$100-$120 mill is untradeable. It's not a huge risk for us, we don't need cap right now.

Any more than we should say we'd let Matas go unless he gets sixth man money. Moot point anyway, no way the Bulls let him go for less than $20 mill. He basically has to get no offers to get less than that. People are just going to have to be mad.

Would probably look to trade Coby and sign Ayo long-term to a cheap deal to balance out Giddey's contract. Ayo's game is going to come back, lock him up cheap 3 yrs/$18 mill, team option last year. We're getting the hometown discount.

Let's be real, we might not want to win 35+ games next year anyway. We need Giddey to be worth it year 2, 3 and 4. That will be after two years with the team and year and a half improvement from now.

And I feel your nervousness about signing Giddey to a big contract after Pat Will's performance this season. :) Hoping he can trun it around, still time. But I feel you. After all these injuries, I'm extra wary of guys with bad injury history.
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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#731 » by League Circles » Mon Feb 24, 2025 1:28 am

Infinity2152 wrote:
League Circles wrote:
Infinity2152 wrote:
Not mistaken about OKC. You said a good team can't win with him as the fourth scorer and fourth or fifth best defender. The Thunder won 57 games with him being around that. Keep focusing on the two games in the playoffs vs the entire 3 prior seasons and the start of the playoffs. He played 26 minutes a game the first series. They won 4-0. He played 25 minutes during the season, so his minutes actually increased the first season, not decreased.

He played 13 minutes/gm the second series. They lost 2-4, after being tied 2-2 before benching him. I keep asking, how does this make it look right that OKC benched him?

I think part of the confusion is around what average starter pay should be. Think it's around $20 mill right now. So do you want to sign 29 year olds to 4 years/$80 who may be marginally better at this point? Or 22 year olds at 4yrs/$120 who still have to improve some?


I don't expect us to luck into a #1 as good as Shai.

I'd prefer to wait to sign somebody actually good, regardless of their age or position. Now that Zach is gone I don't really want to commit to anyone this summer.
Especially since the only other guy we've committed to long term is Patrick, which was already a mistake, because IMO Patrick and Giddey are both best at the 3 spot.

The notable thing about him being benched is that a good coach who knew him best thought it was the right thing to do to give his team the best chance to win. It's a way of pointing out that the skepticism about Giddey has been shared by others of note.

Giddey is ball dominant. Those types of players have huge impact on how good or bad their team is. So I don't really like the thought of making our first big commitment (or second after Patrick) being to an average starter, whether it's fair money or not. We're not short on average players. Yes I do think Giddey has somewhere between the 2nd to 5th most upside on our roster, which is certainly in his favor. I think Buzelis has more upside for sure, and then Coby, Smith, and believe it or not still Patrick lol are hard for me to decide on in terms of upside vs Giddey. But then I do definitely think Giddey has more upside than Ayo, Ball, Terry, and Phillips.

If we can keep him for 6th man money AND trade Ayo and possibly Coby also for actual good returns, then I'm more interested in keeping him. I don't really want him back at starters money on more than a one year deal with team option for year two.


I'll agree with 1-2 most potential with Mata, I'd still lean towards Giddey. But even as the second most talented and potential, that's exactly why we shouldn't let money be the main factor. The thing we need most is talent and potential. trust me, the Bulls will spend that $30 mill on someone. There's no way a Giddey contract 4 yrs/$100-$120 mill is untradeable. It's not a huge risk for us, we don't need cap right now.

Any more than we should say we'd let Matas go unless he gets sixth man money. Moot point anyway, no way the Bulls let him go for less than $20 mill. He basically has to get no offers to get less than that. People are just going to have to be mad.

I want to be ready to use cap space as early as summer 2026 if things go well enough and we have an opportunity to use it on someone good. Obviously that may not happen, but the flexibility to do so when needed is valuable to me. Giddey would be a floor raiser next season if he's here, but most of us want to get a good pick not just in 2025 summer but also 2026.
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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#732 » by Infinity2152 » Mon Feb 24, 2025 1:59 am

Hey, I'm admittedly an optimist. We could see the best Giddey possible, the worst Giddey possible, or somewhere in between over the next four years. The best Giddey is probably max or near max, worst Giddey probably mid-level. In between, $25-$40 mill?

We can pick at flaws all day. He's started in the NBA for years and came in really young. That's not easy. He's put up solid numbers. Efficiency isn't always great, defense has been slowly improving. Shooting is improving. Lot of people thought Lauri could be good. Don't know how many thought he'd be All-Star good, took him awhile to get there.

We know on the court it's about much more than stats. Pat Will could be rebounding at 6 a game, a better defender than Giddey and I still take Giddey. He has that energy and drive, intangibles. I'm rooting for the kid, and hope it's with us.

He went thru a huge scandal last year which culminated in an NBA investigation and public scrutiny. People were showing up to games with all types of abusive cards and chants. Not going to say that affected his minutes, but is it possible?
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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#733 » by PJSteven22 » Mon Feb 24, 2025 8:32 am

Infinity2152 wrote:
PJSteven22 wrote:
Infinity2152 wrote:
Your opinion is clear. I just happen to think you're wrong. The Thunder went 57-25 with him starting last year, playing 80 games. Year before they went 40-42 in the West with him starting. They didn't have Holgrem then and Jalen Williams was putting up 14 pts/gm. Giddey was the second leading scorer.

As far as Matas, his per 36 rebound numbers are 6.8. Giddey's per 36 is 9.1 and has never been lower than 8.9, his rookie year. By what possible metric would you expect Matas to become a better rebounder than Giddey? By next season? Are you expecting Giddey to be worse at absolutely everything after an offseason and a year with the team?

It's cool if we have different opinions. :)

I think what guys are saying he needs to be productive, great three point shooting, great defense, great penetrator, plus maintaining his rebounding and assists, that's not a $30 mill player. That unicorn is an automatic max guy. Probably super max. Giddey scoring 20 a game, flaming 3's with 7 assists and 8 rebounds? Locking down team's best player? All-Star. Matter of fact, since he's getting 36 minutes as a star, 22 pts, 8 assists, 9 rebounds. And second best defender and shooter on the team.

His per 36 numbers this season are astoundingly close to Jalen Johnson's contract year, who got $30 mill with injury history and weaker jumper, and Scottie Barnes, who got $44 mill.

The thunder were a better team with Giddey on the bench last year. Hence why his minutes dropped in the postseason as well. Also he was pedestrian at best last year in the regular season and at times this season as well. While this is a nice stretch from Giddey how sustainable is this play and how scalable can he be are two legit reasonable questions to ask. Regardless we should let the market decide his worth and be in such a rush to pay him.


If the Thunder were a better team with him on the bench last year, why did they start him 80 games? Do you know something they didn't? Again, his minutes went UP the first series. They only dropped the second series. Facing Kyrie and Luka, maybe the two toughest guard covers in the league. And again, THEY LOST. So what if they benched him. They lost when they did it. To a team they were just 2-2 with. Great decision. They were probably using analytics to make that decision too.

By all means keep bringing up they benched him in the playoffs and dropped his minutes. I'll keep bringing up they lost both games and got bounced when they did that.

You brought up the fact that he was a “key contributor” for a number one seed. I just provided context to it. He was maybe the 5th best player on that team and that’s pushing it. They lost against Dallas because Dallas had two of the top three players and they had a better defense. Even though they lost it still doesn’t change the fact that he was hurting their team and the coach had to bench him. You’re welcome for the additional context. Playoff series are tough and it’s concerning how he will scale up on good teams. I personally just see him as a good stats mid team type of guy. His flaws are too limiting and he can’t really fix them.
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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#734 » by Infinity2152 » Mon Feb 24, 2025 3:03 pm

PJSteven22 wrote:
Infinity2152 wrote:
PJSteven22 wrote:The thunder were a better team with Giddey on the bench last year. Hence why his minutes dropped in the postseason as well. Also he was pedestrian at best last year in the regular season and at times this season as well. While this is a nice stretch from Giddey how sustainable is this play and how scalable can he be are two legit reasonable questions to ask. Regardless we should let the market decide his worth and be in such a rush to pay him.


If the Thunder were a better team with him on the bench last year, why did they start him 80 games? Do you know something they didn't? Again, his minutes went UP the first series. They only dropped the second series. Facing Kyrie and Luka, maybe the two toughest guard covers in the league. And again, THEY LOST. So what if they benched him. They lost when they did it. To a team they were just 2-2 with. Great decision. They were probably using analytics to make that decision too.

By all means keep bringing up they benched him in the playoffs and dropped his minutes. I'll keep bringing up they lost both games and got bounced when they did that.

You brought up the fact that he was a “key contributor” for a number one seed. I just provided context to it. He was maybe the 5th best player on that team and that’s pushing it. They lost against Dallas because Dallas had two of the top three players and they had a better defense. Even though they lost it still doesn’t change the fact that he was hurting their team and the coach had to bench him. You’re welcome for the additional context. Playoff series are tough and it’s concerning how he will scale up on good teams. I personally just see him as a good stats mid team type of guy. His flaws are too limiting and he can’t really fix them.


You brought up context. Most of the time the Thunder play in the playoffs the other team will have 2 of the top three players. After SGA, there's Holgrem and Jalen Williams. They're not better than Lebron/AD, Jokic/Murray, etc. Mav's had possibly the two shiftiest most creative guards in the league in Kyrie and Luka. SGA is already a PG and he's not getting benched. Maybe it makes sense to start with a defender on one of them and keep your other PG to relieve Shai? Funny how all your logic fails when they started him the entire previous series and won 4-0. Or won 57 games in the regular season with Giddey playing 25 minutes, which is a lot of minutes.

The guy starts 8 out of 10 playoff games, and everybody wants to point to the 2 games as the norm instead of the 8, lmao! Like the Thunder had a revelation tied at 2-2 in the second round. After three years, plus a first playoff series, it just occurred to them to bench Giddey. Or MAYBE, as coaches do, they changed the lineup due to matchups. Happens frequently in the playoffs, usually without so much drama over 2 games. That they lost. It definitely changes the facts. Nobody's presenting any facts that they played better after benching him. If you're going to keep bringing up the benching, you need to prove they played better with him on the bench. Or it does not support the benching. It's a coaches decision, are coaches infallible? They always make the right substitutions and put the right player in? If that's the case, they made the infallible decision to start Giddey for 3 years, plus the first playoff series. You say they lost against Dallas because of players and better defense, but somehow they were 2-2.

They won 50% of four games against this "far superior team" with Giddey starting. They won 0% of 2 with him coming off the bench. That's a fact, apply all the context you want. Wins and losses are the only thing that matter. They lost at a higher rate against the same team with Giddey off the bench. It's the same players they went 2-2 against. Dallas wasn't even a better overall team, imo.

Games 6, they got eliminated. Shai had 36, Jalen Williams had 22. Luka had 29, Kyrie had 22. Holgrem scored 15, more than their third best player. So much for the best three players theory. Cason Wallace plays double Giddey minutes, or Giddey's usual minutes (25), goes 2-8 from the field, 1-7 from 3. At least the guy they started over Giddey, Isaiah Joe, put up astounding numbers right? Only 11 pts, 3 assist, 3 rebounds in 29 minutes, but good shooting!

Game 5: Luka 31, Kyrie 12. Shai 30, Jalen Wiliams 12. Of course, the Thunder benched Giddey (5-8 from the field) for the analytical darling Isiah Joe, who went 2-9, 2-8 from 3. A staggering 10 pts, 0 assists, 3 rebounds. They also played Cason Wallace double Giddey's minutes for 1-7 shooting. Absolutely brilliant. Giddey shot better, got the same amount of rebounds and more assists and points in 11 minutes as Joe did in 21.

Giddey ever puts up crappy numbers like the guys they replaced him with, he'd get crucified. But it's his fault they replaced him with players he's clearly better than. 10pt, 0 assists, 3 rebounds, 2-9 shooting in 25 minutes? That's not why they lost, cause they replaced Giddey with those guys, it's the Mavs super team. That they just beat 2 out of four. It's crazy their coach isn't ridiculed for benching a player who put up 12, 5, and 6 in 25 minutes at 34% 3 pt shooting for these bums and lost.

Is this enough context?
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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#735 » by kodo » Mon Feb 24, 2025 4:06 pm

We're officially at FebruGiddey.

Code: Select all

ppg: 19.1
rpg:  7.1
apg:  5.0
spg:  1.5
bpg:  1.0

FG%: 48.1%
3P%: 48.8%
TS%: 62.8%


Beyond the ppg/rpg/apg, 2.5 stocks is a lot of hustle for 30 mpg. Derrick White is at 1.9 as an all-defense 1st team playing 34 mpg.
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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#736 » by Infinity2152 » Mon Feb 24, 2025 4:38 pm

That playoff series they benched Giddey: First four games they started him:
Game 1: Mavs TS% .50, 19 assists OKC TS% .577, 29 assists (Giddey plays 17 mins, starts) OKC win
Game 2: Mavs TS% .59, 30 assists, OKC TS% .57, 25 assists (Giddey only played 10 minutes, starts) DAL wins
Game 3: Mavs TS% .515, 21 assists, OKC TS% .57, 23 assists (Giddey 13 mins, starts, second highest +/- of starters,goes 4-8) DAL wins
Game 4: Mavs TS% .489, 26 assists, OKC TS% .488, 18 assists (Giddey plays 12 mins, has the highest +/- on the team) OKC win

Notice the first game they played Giddey 17 minutes and got 29 assists, beating the Mavs by 10 assists. They won't come close to that the rest of the series.

We won, Giddey best +/-, let's bench him! We're already trying to play our analytical guys Cason Wallace and Isaiah Joe! Our shooting and defense will be better!

Game 5: Mavs TS% .636, 27 assists OKC .503, 20 assists Giddey's on the bench, 5-8, third best +/- on the team, 11 minutes OKC loss
Game 6: Mavs TS% .632, 25 assists OKC TS% .58, 25 assist Giddey's on the bench, 1-3, +2 on +/-, 11 minutes OKC loss

The games Giddey started Mavs shot 50%, 59%, 52%, 49% OKC 58%, 57%, 57%, and 49%
Games he came off the bench they shot 64% and 63% OKC 50%, 58%

Didn't improve OKC's shooting and the Mav's shot far better with Joe starting than Giddey. But Joe was an analytical beast and analytics, not players, win ball games. A team going from shooting an average TS% of 52% over 4 games going to 63-64% after you bench a 6'8 guy for a 6'3 guy vs a team with 6'7 Luka at guard, and you're already small with Shai, Dort, and Jalen Williams, who could see that coming? You already have Dort at 6'4 and Jalen Williams at 6'5 at PF, lol. Dallas was already WAY bigger than them on average, and they decided to go even smaller. Dallas beat them on boards every game except 1,OKC led in assists 1 out of 6 games. Two of Giddey's specialties.
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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#737 » by boozapalooza » Mon Feb 24, 2025 5:23 pm

Giddeys February stats (8 games):

19.1ppg, 7.1rpg, 5.0ast, 1.5spg, 1blk, 48% FG & 3PT

Clearly the 3PT % is not sustainable, but quite a month thus far for the 22 year old.

I’m pretty set on resigning him and not letting young talent walk out the door for nothing
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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#738 » by Jcool0 » Mon Feb 24, 2025 6:21 pm

kodo wrote:We're officially at FebruGiddey.

Code: Select all

ppg: 19.1
rpg:  7.1
apg:  5.0
spg:  1.5
bpg:  1.0

FG%: 48.1%
3P%: 48.8%
TS%: 62.8%


Beyond the ppg/rpg/apg, 2.5 stocks is a lot of hustle for 30 mpg. Derrick White is at 1.9 as an all-defense 1st team playing 34 mpg.


If he keeps this up the rest of the year he is going to get closer to 30M then 20M. But as you alluded to we have seen this with Lauri so will be interesting how the season ends for up.
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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#739 » by Guru » Mon Feb 24, 2025 7:08 pm

Jcool0 wrote:
kodo wrote:We're officially at FebruGiddey.

Code: Select all

ppg: 19.1
rpg:  7.1
apg:  5.0
spg:  1.5
bpg:  1.0

FG%: 48.1%
3P%: 48.8%
TS%: 62.8%


Beyond the ppg/rpg/apg, 2.5 stocks is a lot of hustle for 30 mpg. Derrick White is at 1.9 as an all-defense 1st team playing 34 mpg.


If he keeps this up the rest of the year he is going to get closer to 30M then 20M. But as you alluded to we have seen this with Lauri so will be interesting how the season ends for up.


And we won't let him go because we want to be seen as winning that trade.
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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#740 » by sco » Mon Feb 24, 2025 7:14 pm

Guru wrote:
Jcool0 wrote:
kodo wrote:We're officially at FebruGiddey.

Code: Select all

ppg: 19.1
rpg:  7.1
apg:  5.0
spg:  1.5
bpg:  1.0

FG%: 48.1%
3P%: 48.8%
TS%: 62.8%


Beyond the ppg/rpg/apg, 2.5 stocks is a lot of hustle for 30 mpg. Derrick White is at 1.9 as an all-defense 1st team playing 34 mpg.


If he keeps this up the rest of the year he is going to get closer to 30M then 20M. But as you alluded to we have seen this with Lauri so will be interesting how the season ends for up.


And we won't let him go because we want to be seen as winning that trade.

I think there are two questions on the table:

1) Will AK play the RFA process (IMO the right way) by letting Giddey go to market to test the market (with AK making the public statement that the Bulls will match)?

2) If Giddey gets an offer over $20M, will he match it?
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