Time to package Sharpe?

[BlazersBroncos]

Sharpe would play out his QO year before signing a deal that is 18M AV.

Again, Pat Williams was a 9ppg guy and got 20M AV. Sharpe is going to get at least 25M AV, probably a good deal more. I just dont like the idea of paying such a big contract to a guy that is all potential. His advanced stats are putrid, he hasnt really improved measurably in 3 years, he shows very little interest in doing the 'little' things and is miles from being the type of guy that leads a team.

I also think Camara is bound to get over 20M AV - but maybe we could get him to ink early for raises on his SRP scale contract and save some money long term. I would look into that this offseason if possible - there is no risk IMO with paying Camara early, the guy is never going to do anything but give 100%.

I have no clue what RWIII or Ayton demand in FA - I think both will be devalued for different reasons. But Simons signing for a deal that goes 16/14/13/12 is wishful thinking. Thats below full MLE money. He wont go below 20M AV IMO.

[Tim Lehrbach]

I wish it were not so, but Camara is going to get PAID. Probably like a #3/4 starter.

[BlazersBroncos]

I wish it were not so, but Camara is going to get PAID. Probably like a #3/4 starter.

Jaden McDaniels got an extension after his rookie contract expired that is 26M AV.

Statistically, in both raw and advanced metrics, they are very similar players.

I dont think 25M AV is crazy for Toumani.

[PDXKnight]

I wish it were not so, but Camara is going to get PAID. Probably like a #3/4 starter.

Jaden McDaniels got an extension after his rookie contract expired that is 26M AV.

Statistically, in both raw and advanced metrics, they are very similar players.

I dont think 25M AV is crazy for Toumani.

Much more comfortable paying even an overpay for Camara than shaedon

[PDXKnight]

Sharpe would play out his QO year before signing a deal that is 18M AV.

Again, Pat Williams was a 9ppg guy and got 20M AV. Sharpe is going to get at least 25M AV, probably a good deal more. I just dont like the idea of paying such a big contract to a guy that is all potential. His advanced stats are putrid, he hasnt really improved measurably in 3 years, he shows very little interest in doing the 'little' things and is miles from being the type of guy that leads a team.

I also think Camara is bound to get over 20M AV - but maybe we could get him to ink early for raises on his SRP scale contract and save some money long term. I would look into that this offseason if possible - there is no risk IMO with paying Camara early, the guy is never going to do anything but give 100%.

I have no clue what RWIII or Ayton demand in FA - I think both will be devalued for different reasons. But Simons signing for a deal that goes 16/14/13/12 is wishful thinking. Thats below full MLE money. He wont go below 20M AV IMO.

Sharpe probably gets 30 mil no doubt, maybe even 35 mil annually if some team is really swoon on his potential. He is gonna be a poison pill contract and we would be wise to move off him rather than the inevitable cronin match

Wiz had a good point earlier about how it'd be nice to see shaedon a year without Chauncey to see if a change in system can help him out. I wish we would've moved on from Chauncey in the last off season to get that trial run before shaedon was in his final year but now we kind of have to gamble by either moving off him and risk him blowing up somewhere else, or holding onto him at the risk that his advanced stats still stink and yet someone offers him an overpay in rfa. Or Alternatively if he tears it up we risk going into 2026 rfa with a lock a team offers him the full max.

[Walton1one]

Too bad when he gets that contract, POR likely still won't have that star player. They could possibly lose Avdija a year later b\c of the way his contract is structured, they will need to have cap space to pay him what his true value is and b\c of Cronin's ineptitude may not be able to.

In 27/28 off season they will STILL be obligated to pay Grant ($36mil), Scoot will be eligible for a new contract, Clingan on his last club option, Sharpe under his new deal, Camara under his new deal & Avdija on LY of his cheap contract, and that is assuming Cronin doesn't overpay\re-sign Simons\Ayton\Williams

2027/2028 Projected cap of $187.1 million

Grant - $36.4
Avdija $11.8
DC - $9.5
_______________
Scoot cap hold - $40.7
Sharpe - $35?
Camara - $26?
25' pick - $8
26' or 27' pick - $8

That leaves them at $11.7mil under the cap

[Tim Lehrbach]

Too bad when he gets that contract, POR likely still won't have that star player. They could possibly lose Avdija a year later b\c of the way his contract is structured, they will need to have cap space to pay him what his true value is and b\c of Cronin's ineptitude may not be able to.

In 27/28 off season they will STILL be obligated to pay Grant ($36mil), Scoot will be eligible for a new contract, Clingan on his last club option, Sharpe under his new deal, Camara under his new deal & Avdija on LY of his cheap contract, and that is assuming Cronin doesn't overpay\re-sign Simons\Ayton\Williams

2027/2028 Projected cap of $187.1 million

Grant - $36.4
Avdija $11.8
DC - $9.5
_______________
Scoot cap hold - $40.7
Sharpe - $35?
Camara - $26?
25' pick - $8
26' or 27' pick - $8

That leaves them at $11.7mil under the cap

Yeah, it is an underappreciated fact about rebuilds that they rarely result in that golden off-season where you've got emerging stars on rookie scale contracts and cap space together. More often you see your draftees signed to second contracts at market rate, a veteran here or there, and cap holds eating up any would-be cap space. All the more reason why the time to use cap space or expiring contracts to buy talent is early in the rebuild when your last era's contracts are coming to their end and before second contracts for the kids kick in. If there is ANY market for ASEC, RWEC, MTEC, or DAEC, Portland needs to pounce.

[JasonStern]

This thread killed more of my brain cells than my drinking, and Wiz will vouch that's saying a lot.
You have a 21 year old SG averaging 17ppg. Trading him for a draft pick that might end up averaging 17ppg at 21 is the exact opposite of how you build a roster.
Is Sharpe the next Brandon Roy? No. Was he a solid #7 pick? Yes. The criticisms are unfounded. I don't understand how everyone thinks pick #7 guarantees some hall of fame player. Getting a solid starter is a good (not great, but good) return. And the human highlight reels are amazing.
The real questions are making sure that he continues to develop, and that he's not a locker room cancer - which he doesn't seem to be. The "he's not alpha" complaints worry me less, as I don't see him as the face of the franchise. Kawhi is one of the least alpha players in the league, and all he does is win when healthy.
Scoot still looks like he's on a Ricky Rubio career path. But even that's not bad for a #3 pick. What's franchise killing is drafting complete busts.
Team needs to just get out of Grant's contract and focus on getting a #1 dog. Sharpe, Deni, Scoot - and even the unloved Simons and Ayton aren't the problem. The problem is that you look at those players, and you go - yeah, those are solid 3-5th options on a good to great team. Kind of the opposite of the Dame era where we had an alpha dog, and were like - you know who we should sign? Tony Snell! And your own GM goes on an interview and says, "what do you expect? No free agent wants to sign in Portland."

[zzaj]

Too bad when he gets that contract, POR likely still won't have that star player. They could possibly lose Avdija a year later b\c of the way his contract is structured, they will need to have cap space to pay him what his true value is and b\c of Cronin's ineptitude may not be able to.

In 27/28 off season they will STILL be obligated to pay Grant ($36mil), Scoot will be eligible for a new contract, Clingan on his last club option, Sharpe under his new deal, Camara under his new deal & Avdija on LY of his cheap contract, and that is assuming Cronin doesn't overpay\re-sign Simons\Ayton\Williams

2027/2028 Projected cap of $187.1 million

Grant - $36.4
Avdija $11.8
DC - $9.5
_______________
Scoot cap hold - $40.7
Sharpe - $35?
Camara - $26?
25' pick - $8
26' or 27' pick - $8

That leaves them at $11.7mil under the cap

THIS is one of the reasons why this season in particular it was imperative to tank while simultaneously truly evaluating Sharpe, Scoot, and Deni. Landing a player on a rookie deal with team #1 option potential in the draft is absolutely imperative for a team like the Blazers.

Without that Allstar level player, a Lillard, Roy, Aldridge even...the Blazers are going to be stuck at the 1st apron with a .500 team if everything goes correctly in the "rebuild".

Instead, management has punted this season again and gone with veterans, despite not having the injury excuses of last year.

All of this leads me to believe that Crolshey has no interest at all in moving off of Ayton, Grant or Simons and believes that they are the primary pieces in moving forward with the franchise.

I also believe Crolshey has his head directly and completely up his own #@!&. This franchise is going to be between even more of a rock and a hard place very soon. He will be giving up positive value in order to stay under the cap, mark my words.

[Tim Lehrbach]

This thread killed more of my brain cells than my drinking, and Wiz will vouch that's saying a lot.
You have a 21 year old SG averaging 17ppg. Trading him for a draft pick that might end up averaging 17ppg at 21 is the exact opposite of how you build a roster.
Is Sharpe the next Brandon Roy? No. Was he a solid #7 pick? Yes. The criticisms are unfounded. I don't understand how everyone thinks pick #7 guarantees some hall of fame player. Getting a solid starter is a good (not great, but good) return. And the human highlight reels are amazing.
The real questions are making sure that he continues to develop, and that he's not a locker room cancer - which he doesn't seem to be. The "he's not alpha" complaints worry me less, as I don't see him as the face of the franchise. Kawhi is one of the least alpha players in the league, and all he does is win when healthy.
Scoot still looks like he's on a Ricky Rubio career path. But even that's not bad for a #3 pick. What's franchise killing is drafting complete busts.
Team needs to just get out of Grant's contract and focus on getting a #1 dog. Sharpe, Deni, Scoot - and even the unloved Simons and Ayton aren't the problem. The problem is that you look at those players, and you go - yeah, those are solid 3-5th options on a good to great team. Kind of the opposite of the Dame era where we had an alpha dog, and were like - you know who we should sign? Tony Snell! And your own GM goes on an interview and says, "what do you expect? No free agent wants to sign in Portland."

The point isn't whether Scoot and Sharpe are below, at, or above expectations for their draft slot. Of course there are complete busts bringing down the expected returns from picks. Scoot and Sharpe appear to be clearing total bust status. Great.

Two relevant questions to answer with guys on rookie scale contracts are: (1) is he our franchise player (or do we otherwise have one), and (2) is he worth a pricey second contract, at least? If the answers to both are no, you have to at least consider throwing him back and resuming fishing for the guy or guys around which you will construct your roster. Extending or matching pretty good players to big contracts will not pull this team out of the cellar. You don't exit a rebuild until you have a core you are prepared to compete with. And you don't sign players to big contracts until you are ready to exit the rebuild. I don't believe we have a competitive core in place.

[PDXKnight]

This thread killed more of my brain cells than my drinking, and Wiz will vouch that's saying a lot.
You have a 21 year old SG averaging 17ppg. Trading him for a draft pick that might end up averaging 17ppg at 21 is the exact opposite of how you build a roster.
Is Sharpe the next Brandon Roy? No. Was he a solid #7 pick? Yes. The criticisms are unfounded. I don't understand how everyone thinks pick #7 guarantees some hall of fame player. Getting a solid starter is a good (not great, but good) return. And the human highlight reels are amazing.
The real questions are making sure that he continues to develop, and that he's not a locker room cancer - which he doesn't seem to be. The "he's not alpha" complaints worry me less, as I don't see him as the face of the franchise. Kawhi is one of the least alpha players in the league, and all he does is win when healthy.
Scoot still looks like he's on a Ricky Rubio career path. But even that's not bad for a #3 pick. What's franchise killing is drafting complete busts.
Team needs to just get out of Grant's contract and focus on getting a #1 dog. Sharpe, Deni, Scoot - and even the unloved Simons and Ayton aren't the problem. The problem is that you look at those players, and you go - yeah, those are solid 3-5th options on a good to great team. Kind of the opposite of the Dame era where we had an alpha dog, and were like - you know who we should sign? Tony Snell! And your own GM goes on an interview and says, "what do you expect? No free agent wants to sign in Portland."

The point isn't whether Scoot and Sharpe are below, at, or above expectations for their draft slot. Of course there are complete busts bringing down the expected returns from picks. Scoot and Sharpe appear to be clearing total bust status. Great.

Two relevant questions to answer with guys on rookie scale contracts are: (1) is he our franchise player (or do we otherwise have one), and (2) is he worth a pricey second contract, at least? If the answers to both are no, you have to at least consider throwing him back and resuming fishing for the guy or guys around which you will construct your roster. Extending or matching pretty good players to big contracts will not pull this team out of the cellar. You don't exit a rebuild until you have a core you are prepared to compete with. And you don't sign players to big contracts until you are ready to exit the rebuild. I don't believe we have a competitive core in place.

This. We have 2 pretty good 3rd options in deni and Camara. One or Both of those guys may become 2nd options if they hit their best case scenario but neither appears to be a superstar. And certainly those are our best pieces currently. Our best shot at a primary scorer i maintain is Scoot and that's sort of hail mary that he can develop the skills necessary to be a primary option

I am curious to see what a coaching change might bring in terns of getting the most out of this roster assuming we don't screw that up again.

[tester551]

I wish it were not so, but Camara is going to get PAID. Probably like a #3/4 starter.

I think he's worth that.

[Tim Lehrbach]

I wish it were not so, but Camara is going to get PAID. Probably like a #3/4 starter.

I think he's worth that.

I agree. It's just that market-value contracts have a way of filling out the payroll pretty quickly. The team needs to proceed carefully. My preference would be to move on from Scoot and Sharpe, but that's not likely.

[Case2012]

I keep thinking about what our defense would be like with Dyson Daniels. I was not a huge fan of him leading up to the draft but I had no idea he'd turn out to be a dpoy candidate. If we drafted him and still got Camara after the Dame trade, geeez... I think i would actually have to give Crolshey some credit. Scoot,Daniels,Camara,Deni,Clingan.. No offense obviously but that team would be the best defense in the league. Too many ifs for that to happen obviously but fun to think about. I wonder if we could have made a move for him with Simons or Grant? Probably best not think about..

[Walton1one]

It was mentioned on the radio today (Marang, grain of salt) that the team does not view the draft as the only way to get a star player.

Now, I cannot believe, given Cronin's history here and watching Olshey flail\fail all over, that they view free agency as a relevant path for POR, because it isn't.

However, apparently they DO think they are going to be able to trade for such a player, which given their current list of assets is a CRAZY mindset in itself.

They have little in terms of tradeable 1st round picks, they cannot trade their 26/27/28 or (1) of their 29 picks b\c CHI technically has rights to 26/27/28 and b\c of potential Stepien rule violation they have to hold onto (1) of the 29 picks, they can't trade both 30 & 31 either (Stepien again). They have some 2nd round picks but they are all of low value.

and here comes the nightmare scenario, they could trade their 25' pick at the draft (or the rights to that player AFTER the draft), which might make sense given their apparent apathy about draft position this year, in part of a deal. So what does that mean exactly? It means that Simons\Grant\Ayton\Williams all\most are likely here to stay and it is Sharpe\Scoot\Clingan who will be dangled with those (3) picks to try and get such a player.

The problem is, POR most desirable players are Deni\Camara. I would imagine the scenario would be that Cronin would dangle the 25 pick\player and (2) 1st's (best of 29' & POR 31) and (1) of Sharpe\Scoot for that player. Would that be enough, maybe? Would he insert (1) of Camara or Deni if he had to? Possible

Let's face it, no team would view Simons\Grant\Ayton as a centerpiece or major part of a trade (except Cronin of course)

So, Cronin's ideal scenario: (2) future 1st's + 25 pick\player + 1 or 2 younger players b\t Scoot\Sharpe\Clingan

The assumption is they would go after a younger "star" player that could fit in with the ages of Deni\Camara\Simons\Ayton\Wiliams all in their mid-twenties. It is a completely absurd idea that will nott propel this team to relevance as a title team, but of course Cronin refuses to see that. You can't count on Simons\Ayton\Grant as core pieces of a championship team, having one of them? yeah maybe that works, having all 3? That would be idiotic. I guess we will see how stupid Joe really is.

The ironic\funny part would be, is after all of this "talk" about developing their young core (Scoot\Sharpe), Joe will be proven to have lied again (building around Dame), if he ends up dealing them away, but then again, words mean little to him.

The question is what players could that be? Given their forwards (if they could keep both, Deni\Camara) My guess would be a guard, someone they could deal Scoot and\or Sharpe away for and it would be an immediate upgrade.

Ja Morant? age 24 - rumored to potentially be available, lot of money owed thru 27/28, off-court concerns
Trae Young? age 25 - has been rumored to be a trade candidate for a few years now, PO in 26/27 and ATL just offloaded HUnter for expiring and draft capital
Darius Garland? age 24 - they are projected as a 2nd apron next year
Devin Booker? age 28 - close to blowing it all up?
Tyrese Maxey? age 23 - depending on Embid\George, could rebuild around Maxey or cash his value in, they do have McCain
Anthony Edwards? age 23 - MIn 2nd apron team, major salary issues, can't see them dealing away Ant though, especially under new ownership
Tyrese Haliburton? age 24? - Huge contract thru 28/29, maybe IND has buyers' remorse? Would fit with Simons in backcourt

Another really bad possibility...
Zion? age 23 - could be rebuilding from scratch

I think this is what Cronin is more likely to do than keep building with the youth of this team, as his actions don't line up to what he has said or what logic says he should be doing.

I think he wants a retool, not a rebuild

I think he LOVES Simons\Ayton & Grant.

I think he has deluded himself into believing that he can trade for a star player and they will be a legit title contender

I think he NEVER once thought Scoot\Sharpe were the future of this team, as he has stated repeatedly, they were just assets to use to build around Simons\Ayton & Grant. Just like he never ONCE tried to build around Dame.

I think he has no intention of challenging Billups on Scoot\Sharpe's playing time because they are trade fodder anyway

I think he does not care how many games this team wins affects their draft position because he intends to trade the pick anyway

I think his trade for Deni was about the near term not the long term

I think he got completely lucky on Camara, but will gladly take credit for it. He passed on him twice, but sure, he was a guy they really wanted all along

I think he has ZERO intention of firing his buddy, Billups, and that he is still trying to put a team of "vets" together for him. I am unconvinced Billups will be let go unless Cronin is first.

[Case2012]

I brought a lot of that up last week. His moves really dont make sense unless it's through that lens. I'm like 90% sure he's going to make an all in move for Zion or Trae or both instead of doing the logical thing and getting as many assets as he can and have a cost controlled team with tons of upside. I have no idea how they would afford it but I'm not gonna lie, I would be kinda hyped on Trae and Zion with Camara and Deni.

ATL thought about taking Clingan first overall, so he would be gone. NO could build a nice young core of Flagg,Scoot,Sharpe? Idk. If he only got one, it would be awful, but if he got both that would be a pretty fun team to watch for purely entertainment. No chance at contention but fun.

Trae throwing lobs to Zion for the next 2-3 years? I would prefer to completely tear it down and rebuild properly of course but.. Hmm. He would need to get our pick back from Chicago, which is what he should have done instead of drafting Murray. Eh, there's no way he could pull it off even if we thought it was a good idea, which it isn't.

[elias808]

I brought a lot of that up last week. His moves really dont make sense unless it's through that lens. I'm like 90% sure he's going to make an all in move for Zion or Trae or both instead of doing the logical thing and getting as many assets as he can and have a cost controlled team with tons of upside. I have no idea how they would afford it but I'm not gonna lie, I would be kinda hyped on Trae and Zion with Camara and Deni.

ATL thought about taking Clingan first overall, so he would be gone. NO could build a nice young core of Flagg,Scoot,Sharpe? Idk. If he only got one, it would be awful, but if he got both that would be a pretty fun team to watch for purely entertainment. No chance at contention but fun.

Trae throwing lobs to Zion for the next 2-3 years? I would prefer to completely tear it down and rebuild properly of course but.. Hmm. He would need to get our pick back from Chicago, which is what he should have done instead of drafting Murray. Eh, there's no way he could pull it off even if we thought it was a good idea, which it isn't.

Those 20 games both Zion and Trae play together would be fun. But I have to think that Deni and Camara would be shipped out in said trades. They are our only positive assets at this point.

[PDXKnight]

I wish it were not so, but Camara is going to get PAID. Probably like a #3/4 starter.

I think he's worth that.

I agree. It's just that market-value contracts have a way of filling out the payroll pretty quickly. The team needs to proceed carefully. My preference would be to move on from Scoot and Sharpe, but that's not likely.

Sharpe is certainly more imminent than Scoot. We really ought to give Scoot 1 more year with a real coach and without ant to assess his value. Unfortunately we don't have enough direction to know what we have so it seems our strategy is pay first worry later. Heck I'm pretty certain Cronin would offer extensions to ant and ayton without considering the cost down the road leaving us losing valuable players like Camara and deni while holding onto bloated middle of the road players/contracts because no one will take them. Or maybe we just give away our entire cupboard of firsts just to undo the stupid decisions we all know will likely be made

[Tim Lehrbach]

I think he's worth that.

I agree. It's just that market-value contracts have a way of filling out the payroll pretty quickly. The team needs to proceed carefully. My preference would be to move on from Scoot and Sharpe, but that's not likely.

Sharpe is certainly more imminent than Scoot. We really ought to give Scoot 1 more year with a real coach and without ant to assess his value. Unfortunately we don't have enough direction to know what we have so it seems our strategy is pay first worry later. Heck I'm pretty certain Cronin would offer extensions to ant and ayton without considering the cost down the road leaving us losing valuable players like Camara and deni while holding onto bloated middle of the road players/contracts.

You're probably right about Scoot. I just have foolish dreams about replacing him with a better lead guard prospect via the upcoming draft. But absent that, Scoot stays and we see what year three growth he's got in him.

I will be so upset if Simons or Ayton are kept beyond next season. And I mean at any price. If they are on the roster, they are getting minutes. If they are getting minutes, this team's ceiling is the play-in.

[PDXKnight]

I agree. It's just that market-value contracts have a way of filling out the payroll pretty quickly. The team needs to proceed carefully. My preference would be to move on from Scoot and Sharpe, but that's not likely.

Sharpe is certainly more imminent than Scoot. We really ought to give Scoot 1 more year with a real coach and without ant to assess his value. Unfortunately we don't have enough direction to know what we have so it seems our strategy is pay first worry later. Heck I'm pretty certain Cronin would offer extensions to ant and ayton without considering the cost down the road leaving us losing valuable players like Camara and deni while holding onto bloated middle of the road players/contracts.

You're probably right about Scoot. I just have foolish dreams about replacing him with a better lead guard prospect via the upcoming draft. But absent that, Scoot stays and we see what year three growth he's got in him.

I will be so upset if Simons or Ayton are kept beyond next season. And I mean at any price. If they are on the roster, they are getting minutes. If they are getting minutes, this team's ceiling is the play-in.

If ant and ayton are on this team on new bloated/immediately untradable contracts I may have to do the unthinkable and check out on the Blazers till they get a clue how to run an organization. Or maybe we should all show up to every home game just to boo Bert kolde and jody Allen the real brains behind this mess of a franchise