Josh Giddey - Conundrum Killer

[cocktailswith_2short]

The irrational giddey hate is strange . He's a 22 year old walking triple double and there's this unfounded resentment on this board . Is it Caruso they regret ? Lol

[Dez]

As for giddy's counting stats I would say they are very slightly inflated. Assist can be inflated (a la jerian grant) but I feel like giddy does have a good natural feel there for the game and a good basketball IQ. He's the best playmaker The bulls I've had since I'm started watching them. Rondo was a better playmaker but he was too old at his bulls stint.

Where does Lonzo fit?

Giddey is a superior passer and playmaker than Lonzo.

[Jcool0]

The irrational giddey hate is strange . He's a 22 year old walking triple double and there's this unfounded resentment on this board . Is it Caruso they regret ? Lol

Yes. They hated the trade (WE NEED FIRSTS!!!!) so unless he was making an All Star team this year they were going to hate Giddey.

[League Circles]

The irrational giddey hate is strange . He's a 22 year old walking triple double and there's this unfounded resentment on this board . Is it Caruso they regret ? Lol

It comes from the same place that hatred of the FO comes from - people are sick of decades of mostly mediocrity.

Do "walking triple doubles" usually get a triple double in less than 5% of the games they play?

When Russell Westbrook was actually averaging a triple double, most people weren't fooled by it, and he has always been a much better defender than Josh.

It isn't hatred of Josh. He's an absolutely fine, if flawed player in a vacuum. We're trying to build a contender here.

I don't want to commit to Josh long term despite thinking that the trade to get him was smart. Caruso wasn't going to take us anywhere.

[Infinity2152]

Fun fact:

In his 4th year as a starter, Giddey is 15th in the league in assist % and 13th in the league in assists / 100 possessions.

Passing is BY FAR his greatest leveragable strength as a player, and he's basically average as far as starting points go in assists. Yet most of the guys better than him in this category are also better defenders, better shooters, and better scorers.

Here we go with incomplete stats. Is that 15th in the league of all point guards or 15th in the league of the 450 players in the league? There's a big difference, you have guys like Jokic, Luka, and Lebron leading their team in assists. And none of them are great defenders.

If he's 15th of the 450 players in the league, that's not average. That's extraordinary. Post your list so we can see the context.

Here's one: most assists per 100 possessions for players that get at least 25 minutes in 2024-2025 minimum 30 games played. That pretty much covers it all right?

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask?q=most+assists+per+game+per+100+possessions+2024-2025+player+gets+minimum+25+minutes+per+game+min+30+games+played

Giddey is #19 of all players who have played at least 25 minutes and 30 games, so basically all healthy starters and a lot of bench players. Guys in front of him include Draymond Green (PF), Andrew Nembhard (SG), Dejaunte Murray (SG), Jimmy Butler (SF), Hartenstein (center), Aaron Gordon (PF), Ayo Dosunmu (SG), and Divencenzo (SG).

Guys in front of him at PG include Chris Paul, Mike Conley, Ja Morant, Tyrese Haliburton, Fred Van Fleet, Russell Westbrook, D'Angelo Russell. All elite at some point, some right now. Most of them got max contracts. Only two near average PGs left, Davion Mitchell and Tyus Jones, and they're both above average imo.

I said average for a starting point. I don't use the term "point guard" because it has never mattered in the NBA which position a team's "point" plays. Jokic plays it from the 5. Lebron has been playing it from the 4 for a decade or whatever.

It's irrelevant to only compare him to "point guards" because the only reason he's even remotely being considered as a long term starter / building block is because of his passing creation. And he absolutely, positively should be compared to guys like Lebron, Luka, Jokic, etc. they are no less of "points" than he is.

In order for a flawed player whose primary contribution is creating buckets with his passing to be considered as a long term piece for a bad team, he should already be in the top 5-10 in the league at that skill, which he is not. If he was, then at least we could tell ourselves that his poor defense and scoring efficiency are OK, because they're balanced out by truly elite shot creation for others. He's definitely good at creating shots for others, but IMO, not good enough to offset his flaws to justify being a lead ball handler. If we magically already had 4 really good defenders who all drew a lot of attention with their shooting, Giddey could work. Because we don't have that and shouldn't want to limit ourselves to that, we should pay him MLE type money, work out a sign and trade, or let him walk IMO.

Did you see the list? That's he's 19th of all players that have played at least 30 games and 25 minutes. You say "I don't use the term point guards" but you also say "I said average for a starting point." Are we comparing him to point guards or not?

Regardless of position he's 19th. Any player can get assists, so position is no excuse. Giddey could play multiple positions, so it falls even flatter. He's played on the court with a PG most of his career, and very well might with the Bulls.

There are a LOT of NBA players that have played 25 minutes/gm for 30 games. You did notice Lebron, Jokic, Luka are all behind him, right?

Nobody's saying he's better than them, but he's clearly well above NBA average in assists per 100 possessions. I guess you don't count his rebounds because he's a point too. How many of those guys above him get more rebounds than him that are not max players?

It's like Chris Paul, jimmy Butler, Mike Conley, Tyrese Haliburton, Ja Morant get more assists per 100 than Giddey. Well, duh!! It's freaking CP3, Mike Conley, Jimmy Butler, Haliburton, Morant!!! Most of the guys in front of him are All Stars, or former.

[League Circles]

Here we go with incomplete stats. Is that 15th in the league of all point guards or 15th in the league of the 450 players in the league? There's a big difference, you have guys like Jokic, Luka, and Lebron leading their team in assists. And none of them are great defenders.

If he's 15th of the 450 players in the league, that's not average. That's extraordinary. Post your list so we can see the context.

Here's one: most assists per 100 possessions for players that get at least 25 minutes in 2024-2025 minimum 30 games played. That pretty much covers it all right?

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask?q=most+assists+per+game+per+100+possessions+2024-2025+player+gets+minimum+25+minutes+per+game+min+30+games+played

Giddey is #19 of all players who have played at least 25 minutes and 30 games, so basically all healthy starters and a lot of bench players. Guys in front of him include Draymond Green (PF), Andrew Nembhard (SG), Dejaunte Murray (SG), Jimmy Butler (SF), Hartenstein (center), Aaron Gordon (PF), Ayo Dosunmu (SG), and Divencenzo (SG).

Guys in front of him at PG include Chris Paul, Mike Conley, Ja Morant, Tyrese Haliburton, Fred Van Fleet, Russell Westbrook, D'Angelo Russell. All elite at some point, some right now. Most of them got max contracts. Only two near average PGs left, Davion Mitchell and Tyus Jones, and they're both above average imo.

I said average for a starting point. I don't use the term "point guard" because it has never mattered in the NBA which position a team's "point" plays. Jokic plays it from the 5. Lebron has been playing it from the 4 for a decade or whatever.

It's irrelevant to only compare him to "point guards" because the only reason he's even remotely being considered as a long term starter / building block is because of his passing creation. And he absolutely, positively should be compared to guys like Lebron, Luka, Jokic, etc. they are no less of "points" than he is.

In order for a flawed player whose primary contribution is creating buckets with his passing to be considered as a long term piece for a bad team, he should already be in the top 5-10 in the league at that skill, which he is not. If he was, then at least we could tell ourselves that his poor defense and scoring efficiency are OK, because they're balanced out by truly elite shot creation for others. He's definitely good at creating shots for others, but IMO, not good enough to offset his flaws to justify being a lead ball handler. If we magically already had 4 really good defenders who all drew a lot of attention with their shooting, Giddey could work. Because we don't have that and shouldn't want to limit ourselves to that, we should pay him MLE type money, work out a sign and trade, or let him walk IMO.

Did you see the list? That's he's 19th of all players that have played at least 30 games and 25 minutes. You say "I don't use the term point guards" but you also say "I said average for a starting point." Are we comparing him to point guards or not?

Regardless of position he's 19th. Any player can get assists, so position is no excuse. Giddey could play multiple positions, so it falls even flatter. He's played on the court with a PG most of his career, and very well might with the Bulls.

There are a LOT of NBA players that have played 25 minutes/gm for 30 games. You did notice Lebron, Jokic, Luka are all behind him, right?

Nobody's saying he's better than them, but he's clearly well above NBA average in assists per 100 possessions. I guess you don't count his rebounds because he's a point too. How many of those guys above him get more rebounds than him that are not max players?

To your last sentence - a high end primary ball handler SHOULD be worth a max deal. If a guy isn't, he shouldn't be chosen as a lead ball handler for a team serious about building a winner.

"Point" to me just means primary ball handler with primary responsibility to create shots for others. When people needlessly add the term "guard" onto it, they're constraining the group to guys who play the 1 or 2 position. So they're obscuring the relevant comparison by eliminating quite a few guys that should be in the comparison, like Lebron, Luka, Jokic, etc.

Giddey's rebounding is nice. He has a great knack for the ball. He's a smart player. I actually like him lol. He's just not the kind of player that a bad team should be penciling in to run the offense for 4 or 5 years. If Coby, Ayo or Ball were in the contractual situation that Giddey is, I'd be saying similar things about them.

[Infinity2152]

How about a different question. That 27, 16 and 4 game was a microcosm of what's to come. If Giddey starts looking to score and shoot more, he's going to be passing less. Which would you prefer, a Giddey putting up 16, 9 and 8, or a Giddey putting up 20, 6, and 5? Assume offensive rebounding will go down as he's looking to score more and expends more energy on offense. Let's assume exact same shooting and defense.

Or another conundrum. What exactly are we doing here? I keep seeing talk about how Giddey could never be the third or fourth best player on a good team. I actually argued for awhile. But who cares? We're talking about a 4 year contract. Is anybody expecting the Bulls to be this "good team" next year, or even the year after, where Giddey's the fourth best player?

If he can only put up numbers on a bad team, isn't that good for us? We're that bad team. He raises his trade value tremendously, and we have at least 2 years before we'd actually need to be great.

[League Circles]

How about a different question. That 27, 16 and 4 game was a microcosm of what's to come. If Giddey starts looking to score and shoot more, he's going to be passing less. Which would you prefer, a Giddey putting up 16, 9 and 8, or a Giddey putting up 20, 6, and 5? Assume offensive rebounding will go down as he's looking to score more and expends more energy on offense.

I don't have a preference on individual player stats. But I would not like him shooting more, because he isn't very good at it. Below league average every year of his career. I mean the dude has a hideous jump shot. Why are we trying to force him to lead our offense????????

IMO, the best scenario regarding Giddey in a vacuum is for us to trade Coby and Ayo for actual good returns (which I think is unlikely), and then have Giddey add muscle and play mostly at the 4 spot. But I'd rather have Buzelis play the 4. Can Giddey play the 3? Maybe he can, if we add a couple big athletic guards that can help cover for his weaknesses. I don't want to confine our team to that. The slate is too blank right now.

[League Circles]

How about a different question. That 27, 16 and 4 game was a microcosm of what's to come. If Giddey starts looking to score and shoot more, he's going to be passing less. Which would you prefer, a Giddey putting up 16, 9 and 8, or a Giddey putting up 20, 6, and 5? Assume offensive rebounding will go down as he's looking to score more and expends more energy on offense. Let's assume exact same shooting and defense.

Or another conundrum. What exactly are we doing here? I keep seeing talk about how Giddey could never be the third or fourth best player on a good team. I actually argued for awhile. But who cares? We're talking about a 4 year contract. Is anybody expecting the Bulls to be this "good team" next year, or even the year after, where Giddey's the fourth best player?

If he can only put up numbers on a bad team, isn't that good for us? We're that bad team. He raises his trade value tremendously, and we have at least 2 years before we'd actually need to be great.

He is a floor raiser and his salary and entitlement minutes risk getting in the way of someone better taking that role.

[Infinity2152]

How about a different question. That 27, 16 and 4 game was a microcosm of what's to come. If Giddey starts looking to score and shoot more, he's going to be passing less. Which would you prefer, a Giddey putting up 16, 9 and 8, or a Giddey putting up 20, 6, and 5? Assume offensive rebounding will go down as he's looking to score more and expends more energy on offense.

I don't have a preference on individual player stats. But I would not like him shooting more, because he isn't very good at it. Below league average every year of his career. I mean the dude has a hideous jump shot. Why are we trying to force him to lead our offense????????

IMO, the best scenario regarding Giddey in a vacuum is for us to trade Coby and Ayo for actual good returns (which I think is unlikely), and then have Giddey add muscle and play mostly at the 4 spot. But I'd rather have Buzelis play the 4. Can Giddey play the 3? Maybe he can, if we add a couple big athletic guards that can help cover for his weaknesses. I don't want to confine our team to that. The slate is too blank right now.

I just posted something above, but I'll ask you here? What are your short-term goals for the Bulls? My focus right now would be talent acquisition and retainment. As far as I'm concerned, I'm not expecting the Bulls to be a winning team for at least two years. So Giddey's immediate play over the next year doesn't matter much to me nearly as much as his trade value and the possibility that he's a keeper. And yes, improving his trade value and our young guys like our rookie and Matas feeling like they at least hae a chance in games is worth more than tanking harder for lottery balls.

We're crapping on the Pat Williams contract. It's an overpay, but it could turn into a first round pick or a usable player in a year or two. Maybe a decent deal in year three. A lot of the overpay is because Pat has regressed, not progressed. We though Lavine and Vucevic wouldn't return anything, Lavine returned a first, we're looking at a couple of seconds for Vuc.

Giddey has flaws, but he's shown a lot at a very young age. That's can't be emphasized enough. He was a kid when he joined the league. I'd gamble on worst case and he never reaches his potential, he's a trade asset in a superstar trade. Best case, he's a star player here for the next 6-8 years or more.

Whose way is he getting in front of? The only other playmaker is Ball, who may or may not be healthy. Only way he gets in a players way is if we draft a PG. And I'd like to see him play with a 3 and D type PG, anyway. He's a floor raiser, that's a young guy I want to keep. Eventually we'll have enough good players you'll be looking for that floor raiser. Kind of hard to lead a team to wins without being the best player on the team. He's 22. He's our young point guard prospect. We just got him and he looks pretty good.

[League Circles]

How about a different question. That 27, 16 and 4 game was a microcosm of what's to come. If Giddey starts looking to score and shoot more, he's going to be passing less. Which would you prefer, a Giddey putting up 16, 9 and 8, or a Giddey putting up 20, 6, and 5? Assume offensive rebounding will go down as he's looking to score more and expends more energy on offense.

I don't have a preference on individual player stats. But I would not like him shooting more, because he isn't very good at it. Below league average every year of his career. I mean the dude has a hideous jump shot. Why are we trying to force him to lead our offense????????

IMO, the best scenario regarding Giddey in a vacuum is for us to trade Coby and Ayo for actual good returns (which I think is unlikely), and then have Giddey add muscle and play mostly at the 4 spot. But I'd rather have Buzelis play the 4. Can Giddey play the 3? Maybe he can, if we add a couple big athletic guards that can help cover for his weaknesses. I don't want to confine our team to that. The slate is too blank right now.

I just posted something above, but I'll ask you here? What are your short-term goals for the Bulls? My focus right now would be talent acquisition and retainment. As far as I'm concerned, I'm not expecting the Bulls to be a winning team for at least two years. So Giddey's immediate play over the next year doesn't matter much to me nearly as much as his trade value and the possibility that he's a keeper. And yes, improving his trade value and our young guys like our rookie and Matas feeling like they at least hae a chance in games is worth more than tanking harder for lottery balls.

We're crapping on the Pat Williams contract. It's an overpay, but it could turn into a first round pick or a usable player in a year or two. Maybe a decent deal in year three. A lot of the overpay is because Pat has regressed, not progressed. We though Lavine and Vucevic wouldn't return anything, Lavine returned a first, we're looking at a couple of seconds for Vuc.

Giddey has flaws, but he's shown a lot at a very young age. That's can't be emphasized enough. He was a kid when he joined the league. I'd gamble on worst case and he never reaches his potential, he's a trade asset in a superstar trade. Best case, he's a star player here for the next 6-8 years or more.

Whose way is he getting in front of? The only other playmaker is Ball, who may or may not be healthy. Only way he gets in a players way is if we draft a PG. And I'd like to see him play with a 3 and D type PG, anyway. He's a floor raiser, that's a young guy I want to keep. Eventually we'll have enough good players you'll be looking for that floor raiser. Kind of hard to lead a team to wins without being the best player on the team. He's 22. He's our young point guard prospect. We just got him and he looks pretty good.

I'm not goal-oriented. I'm strategy-oriented. My goal would always be to win every game and every championship. I agree it doesn't look like that's happening any time soon. But I would like to give us the opportunity to possibly add significant talent via trade or free agency as soon as possible. Patrick is already a significant problem for our payroll for the next 3-4 seasons. I see no reason to add Giddey. I see him as every bit as likely to be a bad contract that we have to try to dump, maybe even attaching assets to, as I see him being a trade asset for a superstar.

To be clear, I'm fine re-signing Giddey, but if it's for more than a 1+1 team option contract, then I don't really want to go above just over the MLE. I'd be OK giving him big money for a 1+1 deal, cause he can't hurt our cap situation in that scenario. Just like Ball's deal. If somebody offers him anything remotely along the lines if 4 years, 90 million, I'd try to work out a sign and trade or just let him walk.

[PJSteven22]

The irrational giddey hate is strange . He's a 22 year old walking triple double and there's this unfounded resentment on this board . Is it Caruso they regret ? Lol

Yes. They hated the trade (WE NEED FIRSTS!!!!) so unless he was making an All Star team this year they were going to hate Giddey.

Firsts are more important to a rebuild than a meh young player that you have to pay in a year. It’s a dumb trade from a financial standpoint and a basketball standpoint.

[PJSteven22]

The irrational giddey hate is strange . He's a 22 year old walking triple double and there's this unfounded resentment on this board . Is it Caruso they regret ? Lol

It’s not hate it’s legit criticisms on his game. He’s a good playmaker and a good rebounder for his size but he’s bad to mediocre on defense (even though it’s improving), scoring, and finishing. Also how does he fit on the next good bulls team. I’m thinking 4 steps down the road.

[jnrjr79]

How about a different question. That 27, 16 and 4 game was a microcosm of what's to come. If Giddey starts looking to score and shoot more, he's going to be passing less. Which would you prefer, a Giddey putting up 16, 9 and 8, or a Giddey putting up 20, 6, and 5? Assume offensive rebounding will go down as he's looking to score more and expends more energy on offense. Let's assume exact same shooting and defense.

Or another conundrum. What exactly are we doing here? I keep seeing talk about how Giddey could never be the third or fourth best player on a good team. I actually argued for awhile. But who cares? We're talking about a 4 year contract. Is anybody expecting the Bulls to be this "good team" next year, or even the year after, where Giddey's the fourth best player?

If he can only put up numbers on a bad team, isn't that good for us? We're that bad team. He raises his trade value tremendously, and we have at least 2 years before we'd actually need to be great.

IMO, it’s a mistake to look at a player’s best game and say “it’s a microcosm of what’s to come.”

[Infinity2152]

It's the notion that there are a lot of 22 year olds in the league with complete games, or players period. And the idea that, despite improving every single year, he's suddenly going to stop. The idea that you could ever sign anytime in the last 20 years a 22 year old putting up Giddey's numbers to MLE. If you're really thinking about 2 years from now, you'd have to be pretty damn certain Giddey doesn't improve over2 1/2 seasons (he's improving right now). Unless you think improved Giddey at $30 mill would still not be a valuable asset, as a player or trade asset. With a higher NBA cap.

I don't know how they're figuring out how much he is worth. We did a comparison of two guys drafted the same year, Jalen Johnson and Scottie Barnes, who got $30 and $44 mill. Both play on bad teams like the Bulls. Johnson is injury prone, he's out right now. Their per 36 stats are similar, except Giddey gets way more assists and has a higher 3pt% than both, by far this year.

[dougthonus]

It's the notion that there are a lot of 22 year olds in the league with complete games, or players period. And the idea that, despite improving every single year, he's suddenly going to stop.

I don't know that he has improved the past two years, certainly not in any real major way. Most of his advanced metrics peaked in year 2. He's maybe a marginally better shooter, but his percentage hides how little progress he's made.

The idea that you could ever sign anytime in the last 20 years a 22 year old putting up Giddey's numbers to MLE. If you're really thinking about 2 years from now, you'd have to be pretty damn certain Giddey doesn't improve over2 1/2 seasons (he's improving right now). Unless you think improved Giddey at $30 mill would still not be a valuable asset, as a player or trade asset. With a higher NBA cap.

I don't think the likely improvement Giddey has left in the tank will ever make him worth 30M. It's possible of course, but he's mostly flatlined the last two years. He'd need to massively rework his shot or start drawing a ton of fouls or make unrealistic improvements on defense.

I just don't see Giddey ever being a big minute player on a title contender in the playoffs, which caps his reasonable salary to me at 20M. Don't think you can pay a bench guard more than that. On a bad team he can fill up a box score and make sure you don't finish with 15 wins, but that's really like the exact wrong type of player to chase.

OKC looked at Giddey and said "no, he can't fit in with us as a starting player", and they are a team filled with the perfect players to put around him, a ton of defense and shooting.

[Jcool0]

The irrational giddey hate is strange . He's a 22 year old walking triple double and there's this unfounded resentment on this board . Is it Caruso they regret ? Lol

Yes. They hated the trade (WE NEED FIRSTS!!!!) so unless he was making an All Star team this year they were going to hate Giddey.

Firsts are more important to a rebuild than a meh young player that you have to pay in a year. It’s a dumb trade from a financial standpoint and a basketball standpoint.

That meh player currently has 6 points, 2 assists and 8 rebounds in 10 minutes.

[Infinity2152]

It's the notion that there are a lot of 22 year olds in the league with complete games, or players period. And the idea that, despite improving every single year, he's suddenly going to stop.

I don't know that he has improved the past two years, certainly not in any real major way. Most of his advanced metrics peaked in year 2. He's maybe a marginally better shooter, but his percentage hides how little progress he's made.

The idea that you could ever sign anytime in the last 20 years a 22 year old putting up Giddey's numbers to MLE. If you're really thinking about 2 years from now, you'd have to be pretty damn certain Giddey doesn't improve over2 1/2 seasons (he's improving right now). Unless you think improved Giddey at $30 mill would still not be a valuable asset, as a player or trade asset. With a higher NBA cap.

I don't think the likely improvement Giddey has left in the tank will ever make him worth 30M. It's possible of course, but he's mostly flatlined the last two years. He'd need to massively rework his shot or start drawing a ton of fouls or make unrealistic improvements on defense.

He's shooting far better this season. Over 53 games so far. He shot 26% from 3 his rookie year. He's shooting 36% this year. I know there are all kind of chaotic reasons to show that the three pointer's he's actually making in NBA games really don't count, but I'm going to count them. That's a 10% jump in 4 years. That's probably extremely rare. If he settles at 34 like last year or 35%, that' still huge improvement from where he started.

His defense is pretty clearly improving. When you start at 9 rebounds and 8 assists per 36, pretty hard to improve there. Already pretty elite.

Who is a $30 mill player, in your opinion? Some guys to reference would be good. I showed two guys from the same draft class putting up similar numbers getting $30 and $44, so clearly not Barnes or Jalen Johnson, who's always hurt. Please pick from guys 25 and younger, adjusting for more than 3 years age difference would be tedious. Also, please exclude guys like Wemby and Banchero, obvious max guys.

I'm curious what other people thing a $30 mill young player looks like among actually available players, and not made up prototypes.

I just looked at Trae Young's per 36 and gave myself a huge laugh. have to share:
Career: 27 pts, 10.2 assists, 3.7 rebounds, 1.1 steals. Shooting a staggering 43% from the field, and 35.2% from 3 on 7.9 attempts. 58% TS. Worse defensively and more likely to be targeted on defense than Giddey. He's making $46 mill next year, so Barnes money.

Giddey this year: 16 pts, 8 assists, 9 rebounds. 1.4 steals. Shooting 45% from the field, 36% from three on 4.9 attempts. 55% TS%.

Of course Trae's a better shooter but 7.9 attempts a game at 35% has to be killing the Hawks overall three point percentage.

[Jcool0]

Yes. They hated the trade (WE NEED FIRSTS!!!!) so unless he was making an All Star team this year they were going to hate Giddey.

Firsts are more important to a rebuild than a meh young player that you have to pay in a year. It’s a dumb trade from a financial standpoint and a basketball standpoint.

That meh player currently has 6 points, 2 assists and 8 rebounds in 10 minutes.

17 points, 10 rebounds, 5 assists and 3 blocks.

[cocktailswith_2short]

Giddey conundrum solved. He's pretty good we're going to pay him .