5th Seed Watch (was 6th Seed Watch)

[floppymoose]

Code: Select all

 6 LA Clippers      31  25
 7 Minnesota        31  27
 8 Dallas           31  27
 9 Golden State     30  27
10 Sacramento       28  28
11 Phoenix          27  30

25 games to go

Clippers/Minny/Dallas/Phoenix all lost today; Warriors win.

[cladden]

Damn, just two losses more than the clippers. This is actually kinda possible. Not sure how likely but it could happen.

7th or 8th is also not a total disaster. I kinda like our chances against pretty much anyone except the Nuggets in the West. Thunder's probably too good for us as well but we do play them tough.

[bay2hk]

We have the weakest ROS opponent schedule out of the playin contenders. I think that last home game against the clippers might decide if we get the 6 seed or not.

[Jester_]

Damn, just two losses more than the clippers. This is actually kinda possible. Not sure how likely but it could happen.

7th or 8th is also not a total disaster. I kinda like our chances against pretty much anyone except the Nuggets in the West. Thunder's probably too good for us as well but we do play them tough.

Lakers worry me more than the Nuggets tbh... Jokic will terrorize us, but Murray and the rest will be locked down

[Onus]

Clippers going to lose again. 1 game out of 6th. A win tomorrow puts us a .5 game out.

[Onus]

Damn, just two losses more than the clippers. This is actually kinda possible. Not sure how likely but it could happen.

7th or 8th is also not a total disaster. I kinda like our chances against pretty much anyone except the Nuggets in the West. Thunder's probably too good for us as well but we do play them tough.

Lakers worry me more than the Nuggets tbh... Jokic will terrorize us, but Murray and the rest will be locked down

I think the lakers might be the favorites out of the west.

[marthafokker]

OMG... OKC choking the game away.

[DAWill1128]

The Doncic trade to me is still just silly and ridiculous. It's like if the Cavs traded LeBron his first go around after losing in the Finals to the Lakers for Gasol. Then the Lakers had LeBron and an older Kobe. I think the ridiclousness of it tops the Cavs getting the #1 pick in 3 of the 4 drafts post LeBron leaving. We sucked what felt like forever in the 2000s and never got a #1 pick.

[cpower]

SGA wtf man

[marthafokker]

OKC choke job completed.

[multo]

Wolves won
Clippers lost
Kings gonna win too up almost 20 in the 4th

[floppymoose]

Yah this is why GSW must win the head to head matchups.

[floppymoose]

Code: Select all

 6 LA Clippers      31  26
 7 Minnesota        32  27
 8 Dallas           31  27
 9 Golden State     30  27
10 Sacramento       29  28
11 Phoenix          27  30

Warriors next 10 games:

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Tue, Feb 25 vs  Charlotte       14-42   7:00 PM PST
Thu, Feb 27 @   Orlando         29-30   4:00 PM PST
Sat, Mar 1  @   Philadelphia    20-37   5:30 PM PST
Mon, Mar 3  @   Charlotte       14-42   4:00 PM PST
Tue, Mar 4  @   New York        37-20   4:30 PM PST
Thu, Mar 6  @   Brooklyn        21-36   4:30 PM PST
Sat, Mar 8  vs  Detroit         32-26   5:30 PM PST
Mon, Mar 10 vs  Portland        25-33   7:00 PM PDT
Thu, Mar 13 vs  Sacramento      29-28   7:00 PM PDT
Sat, Mar 15 vs  New York        37-20   5:30 PM PDT


[Jester_]

Code: Select all

 6 LA Clippers      31  26
 7 Minnesota        32  27
 8 Dallas           31  27
 9 Golden State     30  27
10 Sacramento       29  28
11 Phoenix          27  30

Warriors next 10 games:

Code: Select all

Tue, Feb 25 vs  Charlotte       14-42   7:00 PM PST
Thu, Feb 27 @   Orlando         29-30   4:00 PM PST
Sat, Mar 1  @   Philadelphia    20-37   5:30 PM PST
Mon, Mar 3  @   Charlotte       14-42   4:00 PM PST
Tue, Mar 4  @   New York        37-20   4:30 PM PST
Thu, Mar 6  @   Brooklyn        21-36   4:30 PM PST
Sat, Mar 8  vs  Detroit         32-26   5:30 PM PST
Mon, Mar 10 vs  Portland        25-33   7:00 PM PDT
Thu, Mar 13 vs  Sacramento      29-28   7:00 PM PDT
Sat, Mar 15 vs  New York        37-20   5:30 PM PDT


Anything less than 8-2 is a disapointment

[Onus]

Code: Select all

 6 LA Clippers      31  26
 7 Minnesota        32  27
 8 Dallas           31  27
 9 Golden State     30  27
10 Sacramento       29  28
11 Phoenix          27  30

Warriors next 10 games:

Code: Select all

Tue, Feb 25 vs  Charlotte       14-42   7:00 PM PST
Thu, Feb 27 @   Orlando         29-30   4:00 PM PST
Sat, Mar 1  @   Philadelphia    20-37   5:30 PM PST
Mon, Mar 3  @   Charlotte       14-42   4:00 PM PST
Tue, Mar 4  @   New York        37-20   4:30 PM PST
Thu, Mar 6  @   Brooklyn        21-36   4:30 PM PST
Sat, Mar 8  vs  Detroit         32-26   5:30 PM PST
Mon, Mar 10 vs  Portland        25-33   7:00 PM PDT
Thu, Mar 13 vs  Sacramento      29-28   7:00 PM PDT
Sat, Mar 15 vs  New York        37-20   5:30 PM PDT


Anything less than 8-2 is a disapointment

Ngl 8-2 would be slightly disappointing.

[Chris Porter's Hair]

Tangential note: good for Detroit. I watched them at the end of last season and scratched my head. I didn't expect them to be a championship contender or anything, but was puzzled why they were SO bad. This year they made some changes, but not much of anything I think anyone thought would really move the needle, and all of a sudden they are 32-26. In the east, sure, but that's a huge improvement for a long suffering franchise.

[vvoland]

Code: Select all

 6 LA Clippers      31  26
 7 Minnesota        32  27
 8 Dallas           31  27
 9 Golden State     30  27
10 Sacramento       29  28
11 Phoenix          27  30

Warriors next 10 games:

Code: Select all

Tue, Feb 25 vs  Charlotte       14-42   7:00 PM PST
Thu, Feb 27 @   Orlando         29-30   4:00 PM PST
Sat, Mar 1  @   Philadelphia    20-37   5:30 PM PST
Mon, Mar 3  @   Charlotte       14-42   4:00 PM PST
Tue, Mar 4  @   New York        37-20   4:30 PM PST
Thu, Mar 6  @   Brooklyn        21-36   4:30 PM PST
Sat, Mar 8  vs  Detroit         32-26   5:30 PM PST
Mon, Mar 10 vs  Portland        25-33   7:00 PM PDT
Thu, Mar 13 vs  Sacramento      29-28   7:00 PM PDT
Sat, Mar 15 vs  New York        37-20   5:30 PM PDT


Anything less than 8-2 is a disapointment

Ngl 8-2 would be slightly disappointing.

I think Dray's bday is on the 4th and, I believe, he has been known to have a good time. With 3 days in New York, on his birthday, I am very curious just how serious Dray looks on the 4th and 6th. Unless, of course, Kerr gives the vets the night off in NY on the second night of the B2B. Considering the hole the vets have dug for themselves, that's not likely. If dray still looks like he partied like it's 1999 on the 4th or 6th, it will tell me something about how he views the stretch run.

That weird tangent aside, 8-2 does seem like the minimum. NYK are the best team during that 10 game stretch, but are going through a rough patch. If they get MRob back and turn it around, those 2 games could be tough (plus the NYC thing). Outside of Orlando, the rest of that schedule is easy. We've lost to most of those teams so it's nothing to take for granted but, yes, 8-2 has to be the minimum. The 7 games to finish up March that follow feature 5 easy teams, with Den and Mil (home b2b) as the two tough matchups.

Need to bank these wins, starting tonight.

[Onus]

Anything less than 8-2 is a disapointment

Ngl 8-2 would be slightly disappointing.

I think Dray's bday is on the 4th and, I believe, he has been known to have a good time. With 3 days in New York, on his birthday, I am very curious just how serious Dray looks on the 4th and 6th. Unless, of course, Kerr gives the vets the night off in NY on the second night of the B2B. Considering the hole the vets have dug for themselves, that's not likely. If dray still looks like he partied like it's 1999 on the 4th or 6th, it will tell me something about how he views the stretch run.

That weird tangent aside, 8-2 does seem like the minimum. NYK are the best team during that 10 game stretch, but are going through a rough patch. If they get MRob back and turn it around, those 2 games could be tough (plus the NYC thing). Outside of Orlando, the rest of that schedule is easy. We've lost to most of those teams so it's nothing to take for granted but, yes, 8-2 has to be the minimum. The 7 games to finish up March that follow feature 5 easy teams, with Den and Mil (home b2b) as the two tough matchups.

Need to bank these wins, starting tonight.

TBH the only game I'm thinking we might lose is the b2b against the knicks, which is dray's bday. So where is that other loss coming from? I personally would be disappointed if we go 8-2.

[vvoland]

Ngl 8-2 would be slightly disappointing.

I think Dray's bday is on the 4th and, I believe, he has been known to have a good time. With 3 days in New York, on his birthday, I am very curious just how serious Dray looks on the 4th and 6th. Unless, of course, Kerr gives the vets the night off in NY on the second night of the B2B. Considering the hole the vets have dug for themselves, that's not likely. If dray still looks like he partied like it's 1999 on the 4th or 6th, it will tell me something about how he views the stretch run.

That weird tangent aside, 8-2 does seem like the minimum. NYK are the best team during that 10 game stretch, but are going through a rough patch. If they get MRob back and turn it around, those 2 games could be tough (plus the NYC thing). Outside of Orlando, the rest of that schedule is easy. We've lost to most of those teams so it's nothing to take for granted but, yes, 8-2 has to be the minimum. The 7 games to finish up March that follow feature 5 easy teams, with Den and Mil (home b2b) as the two tough matchups.

Need to bank these wins, starting tonight.

TBH the only game I'm thinking we might lose is the b2b against the knicks, which is dray's bday. So where is that other loss coming from? I personally would be disappointed if we go 8-2.

Let's just say we lose the NYK game on the 4th. Additionally, let's say we have an 80% chance to beat each of @Orl, Det, NYK. That would imply a probability of ~50% to beat all 3. Another way to do this is to imagine that we have a 90% chance to win all of the other 9 games. 90% is enormous, by the way, implying a 9-1 betting odds. But even at 90%, the chances of winning 8 in a row is only 39%.

When you bring it down to a more realistic 65% (~2:1 betting odds), the odds imply only an 18% chance to go into that first @NYK game without already having lost 1 game. 65% to the 4th power, unless my memory is faulty.

[TB]

Before the trade, it looked like we needed to finish around 20-10 in our last 30 games to be at the Win% of a 6 seed. Which seemed very unlikely...but that 5-1 start to the Jimmy era has really made it a possibility.

Now I disagree with the last few posts thinking that 8-2 over the next 10 is the minimum to be happy with, because these are still NBA teams after all and some of them are good teams… not to mention we have seen first hand how often we are capable of losing to a bad team.

So i’d say 7-3 would be fantastic and 6-4 is fine. I’m just trying to be realistic and to me it seems that a 5-5 stretch is just as possible as an 8-2 stretch.

But if we can go 6-4 or 7-3 in this easier stretch, that leaves 15 games (with a tougher schedule) to go somewhere in the 9-6 or 8-7 range to have a serious shot at the 6 seed.

Just know i’ll be rooting for everyone else in this thread to be correct and we go 8-2, finish strong in the last 15 games and take over the 5th seed from the struggling Rockets