Josh Giddey - Conundrum Killer

[Guru]

1.2 Blocks 1.4 Steals in the month of February

[League Circles]

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Sucks

I'm not aware of a single poster that thinks Giddey sucks. Pretty much everyone sees him as a long term quality rotation player in this league. That just doesn't necessarily mean that this bad team with zero clear long term pieces should make him the first long term piece to commit to.

If he continues to play well for the rest of the season AND we trade one or two guys from among Ball, Ayo, Coby and Patrick, then it will make more and more sense to agree to pay him more and for longer.

[DuckIII]

The excitement over Giddey is frankly hilarious in light of the mantras of most posters saying how important it is that we be bad for multiple years in the future in order to be able to draft really talented players.

You can't really insist that we tank/rebuild/start over blah blah blah if you are excited to commit long term to a quite flawed yet effective floor raiser like Giddey. It's like the exact opposite of what most have been saying they want. Predictable, but hilarious.

He's a fine player and all, might even run a good offense eventually. But he's just a different flavor of the types of guys we've had.

I stand by my original post which is that Giddey presents a problem. Part of the conundrum outlined was not getting to see him play in the context in which we would actually expect him to play. But with the Lavine trade we’ll get much closer to that which will help considerably.

In the month of February (roughly the post-Lavine era) Giddey is averaging 19/8/5 on a .658 TS in 32 mpg over 9 games. 9 games is not enough of a sample size but 33 games, though still not enough (part of the outlined conundrum) isn’t nothing. If he can keep playing at this level with a roster that more closely represents his future role over 33 games you’re looking at a guy who is very different from the other “types of guys” we’ve had. Giddey, for his warts, is a legitimately unique NBA player.

Also, the notion that tanking means you want everyone on the court to suck for 3 years and that signing a 22 year old to an extension, even a relatively substantial one, just because he’s not your franchise player, is a hypothetical strategy underscores a severe misunderstanding of “tank” rebuild strategy options. But I’m tired of debating that particular straw man any further.

[League Circles]

The excitement over Giddey is frankly hilarious in light of the mantras of most posters saying how important it is that we be bad for multiple years in the future in order to be able to draft really talented players.

You can't really insist that we tank/rebuild/start over blah blah blah if you are excited to commit long term to a quite flawed yet effective floor raiser like Giddey. It's like the exact opposite of what most have been saying they want. Predictable, but hilarious.

He's a fine player and all, might even run a good offense eventually. But he's just a different flavor of the types of guys we've had.

I stand by my original post which is that Giddey presents a problem. Part of the conundrum outlined was not getting to see him play in the context in which we would actually expect him to play. But with the Lavine trade we’ll get much closer to that which will help considerably.

In the month of February (roughly the post-Lavine era) Giddey is averaging 19/8/5 on a .658 TS in 32 mpg over 9 games. 9 games is not enough of a sample size but 33 games, though still not enough (part of the outlined conundrum) isn’t nothing. If he can keep playing at this level with a roster that more closely represents his future role over 33 games you’re looking at a guy who is very different from the other “types of guys” we’ve had. Giddey, for his warts, is a legitimately unique NBA player.

Also, the notion that tanking means you want everyone on the court to suck for 3 years and that signing a 22 year old to an extension, even a relatively substantial one, just because he’s not your franchise player, is a hypothetical strategy underscores a severe misunderstanding of “tank” rebuild strategy options. But I’m tired of debating that particular straw man any further.

Definitely agree that Giddey is a very unique player. Makes him really tough to evaluate. My eyes are still wide open on him.

Regarding tanking, the funny thing is that lots of people can't reconcile that having a good player running your offense (which is what people are insisting that Giddey looks like he is going to be) will very actively prevent you from being very bad. So if Giddey is what people want him to be, he's very plausibly going to make a top 10 pick in the 2026 draft unlikely. Thus, tank is over after probably a mere single 8ish overall pick this summer. I've always been OK with that, because I always knew how likely it was if we had even a few bright spots like Giddey allegedly is. But bottom line, he seems to be a clear floor raiser.

[Chi town]

So we draft Edgecombe if possible, PWill gets back to his rookie body to play 3&D role SF and we trade Vucevic or White for rim running defensive C.

Giddey, Edgecombe, Williams, Buzelis, new C
Bench mob : L.Ball, Ayo, Huerter, Terry, Phillips, Smith

This makes sense on paper but VJ and Buz would really have to be able to shoot from 3. Pat would have to return to form and increase volume.

Strong two way players that can stretch the floor from 3 will give Giddey space. Secondary playmakers that can also create for others are a must as Giddey on ball doesn't have a high ceiling for getting his own offense. He's better at creating for others.

Give Giddey a rim running lob threat and that would open up the floor quite a bit too.

Buz is a great fit. VJ could be a great fit if his handle gets better and his 3 ball is legit. Tre is a good fit as a suped up shooter with big gravity and length on D but probably not enough D but maybe as he gets stronger he could be a good defender.

[Chi town]

The excitement over Giddey is frankly hilarious in light of the mantras of most posters saying how important it is that we be bad for multiple years in the future in order to be able to draft really talented players.

You can't really insist that we tank/rebuild/start over blah blah blah if you are excited to commit long term to a quite flawed yet effective floor raiser like Giddey. It's like the exact opposite of what most have been saying they want. Predictable, but hilarious.

He's a fine player and all, might even run a good offense eventually. But he's just a different flavor of the types of guys we've had.

I stand by my original post which is that Giddey presents a problem. Part of the conundrum outlined was not getting to see him play in the context in which we would actually expect him to play. But with the Lavine trade we’ll get much closer to that which will help considerably.

In the month of February (roughly the post-Lavine era) Giddey is averaging 19/8/5 on a .658 TS in 32 mpg over 9 games. 9 games is not enough of a sample size but 33 games, though still not enough (part of the outlined conundrum) isn’t nothing. If he can keep playing at this level with a roster that more closely represents his future role over 33 games you’re looking at a guy who is very different from the other “types of guys” we’ve had. Giddey, for his warts, is a legitimately unique NBA player.

Also, the notion that tanking means you want everyone on the court to suck for 3 years and that signing a 22 year old to an extension, even a relatively substantial one, just because he’s not your franchise player, is a hypothetical strategy underscores a severe misunderstanding of “tank” rebuild strategy options. But I’m tired of debating that particular straw man any further.

Definitely agree that Giddey is a very unique player. Makes him really tough to evaluate. My eyes are still wide open on him.

Regarding tanking, the funny thing is that lots of people can't reconcile that having a good player running your offense (which is what people are insisting that Giddey looks like he is going to be) will very actively prevent you from being very bad. So if Giddey is what people want him to be, he's very plausibly going to make a top 10 pick in the 2026 draft unlikely. Thus, tank is over after probably a mere single 8ish overall pick this summer. I've always been OK with that, because I always knew how likely it was if we had even a few bright spots like Giddey allegedly is. But bottom line, he seems to be a clear floor raiser.

I dont' think so. Giddey could be really good and we still suck. I expect Vuc and Coby to be traded. Buz would have to take a major step and our rookie would have to be ROY to make the play in with that team. Jalen Smith is made of glass. DT and JP dont' have enough of a ceiling.

[League Circles]

Also, if a guy is running your offense, he should be a franchise player unless you have Dikembe Mutombo or Rudy Gobert or somebody down low.

How many great nba teams ran their offense through a guy that wasn't in their top 2-3 overall players?

I admit, it certainly could work. He has the requisite skills in a vacuum. He just requires us to be very specific and very low margin of error on the other 4 guys. Of we get optimistic and assume Matas will be one, that would still mean we'd need 3 really good starters with very specific skill sets at the 1, 2, and 5 positions.

Now MAYBE that's our best bet. But it certainly pidgeonholes us in a similar way to how the original AK roster build did.

[DuckIII]

I stand by my original post which is that Giddey presents a problem. Part of the conundrum outlined was not getting to see him play in the context in which we would actually expect him to play. But with the Lavine trade we’ll get much closer to that which will help considerably.

In the month of February (roughly the post-Lavine era) Giddey is averaging 19/8/5 on a .658 TS in 32 mpg over 9 games. 9 games is not enough of a sample size but 33 games, though still not enough (part of the outlined conundrum) isn’t nothing. If he can keep playing at this level with a roster that more closely represents his future role over 33 games you’re looking at a guy who is very different from the other “types of guys” we’ve had. Giddey, for his warts, is a legitimately unique NBA player.

Also, the notion that tanking means you want everyone on the court to suck for 3 years and that signing a 22 year old to an extension, even a relatively substantial one, just because he’s not your franchise player, is a hypothetical strategy underscores a severe misunderstanding of “tank” rebuild strategy options. But I’m tired of debating that particular straw man any further.

Definitely agree that Giddey is a very unique player. Makes him really tough to evaluate. My eyes are still wide open on him.

Regarding tanking, the funny thing is that lots of people can't reconcile that having a good player running your offense (which is what people are insisting that Giddey looks like he is going to be) will very actively prevent you from being very bad. So if Giddey is what people want him to be, he's very plausibly going to make a top 10 pick in the 2026 draft unlikely. Thus, tank is over after probably a mere single 8ish overall pick this summer. I've always been OK with that, because I always knew how likely it was if we had even a few bright spots like Giddey allegedly is. But bottom line, he seems to be a clear floor raiser.

I dont' think so. Giddey could be really good and we still suck. I expect Vuc and Coby to be traded. Buz would have to take a major step and our rookie would have to be ROY to make the play in with that team. Jalen Smith is made of glass. DT and JP dont' have enough of a ceiling.

If Giddey can raise our weak ass roster to the play-in next year he’s a damn franchise player. But he’s not. So that’s not going to happen. Look at Cunningham in Detroit and hundreds of other examples of better players on bad young teams.

Hell, we are 1-6 since the Lavine trade with Giddey playing like a maniac.

[League Circles]

Definitely agree that Giddey is a very unique player. Makes him really tough to evaluate. My eyes are still wide open on him.

Regarding tanking, the funny thing is that lots of people can't reconcile that having a good player running your offense (which is what people are insisting that Giddey looks like he is going to be) will very actively prevent you from being very bad. So if Giddey is what people want him to be, he's very plausibly going to make a top 10 pick in the 2026 draft unlikely. Thus, tank is over after probably a mere single 8ish overall pick this summer. I've always been OK with that, because I always knew how likely it was if we had even a few bright spots like Giddey allegedly is. But bottom line, he seems to be a clear floor raiser.

I dont' think so. Giddey could be really good and we still suck. I expect Vuc and Coby to be traded. Buz would have to take a major step and our rookie would have to be ROY to make the play in with that team. Jalen Smith is made of glass. DT and JP dont' have enough of a ceiling.

If Giddey can raise our weak ass roster to the play-in next year he’s a damn franchise player. But he’s not. So that’s not going to happen. Look at Cunningham in Detroit and hundreds of other examples of better players on bad young teams.

Hell, we are 1-6 since the Lavine trade with Giddey playing like a maniac.

A lot depends on if we actually trade Coby for no immediate help (draft picks and bad salary instead), which is certainly possible but far from a given and not necessarily wise anyway. IMO, a lineup of Ball, Coby, Giddey, Matas and Smith is probably not a bottom 10 team next year, let alone bottom 5 where we could actually expect to draft a good player.

[jnrjr79]

Definitely agree that Giddey is a very unique player. Makes him really tough to evaluate. My eyes are still wide open on him.

Regarding tanking, the funny thing is that lots of people can't reconcile that having a good player running your offense (which is what people are insisting that Giddey looks like he is going to be) will very actively prevent you from being very bad. So if Giddey is what people want him to be, he's very plausibly going to make a top 10 pick in the 2026 draft unlikely. Thus, tank is over after probably a mere single 8ish overall pick this summer. I've always been OK with that, because I always knew how likely it was if we had even a few bright spots like Giddey allegedly is. But bottom line, he seems to be a clear floor raiser.

I dont' think so. Giddey could be really good and we still suck. I expect Vuc and Coby to be traded. Buz would have to take a major step and our rookie would have to be ROY to make the play in with that team. Jalen Smith is made of glass. DT and JP dont' have enough of a ceiling.

If Giddey can raise our weak ass roster to the play-in next year he’s a damn franchise player. But he’s not. So that’s not going to happen. Look at Cunningham in Detroit and hundreds of other examples of better players on bad young teams.

Hell, we are 1-6 since the Lavine trade with Giddey playing like a maniac.

Detroit is pretty good!

[Jcool0]

I dont' think so. Giddey could be really good and we still suck. I expect Vuc and Coby to be traded. Buz would have to take a major step and our rookie would have to be ROY to make the play in with that team. Jalen Smith is made of glass. DT and JP dont' have enough of a ceiling.

If Giddey can raise our weak ass roster to the play-in next year he’s a damn franchise player. But he’s not. So that’s not going to happen. Look at Cunningham in Detroit and hundreds of other examples of better players on bad young teams.

Hell, we are 1-6 since the Lavine trade with Giddey playing like a maniac.

Detroit is pretty good!

Detroit wins since Cunningham was drafted: 23, 17, 14 & currently 32-26.

[DASMACKDOWN]

Definitely agree that Giddey is a very unique player. Makes him really tough to evaluate. My eyes are still wide open on him.

Regarding tanking, the funny thing is that lots of people can't reconcile that having a good player running your offense (which is what people are insisting that Giddey looks like he is going to be) will very actively prevent you from being very bad. So if Giddey is what people want him to be, he's very plausibly going to make a top 10 pick in the 2026 draft unlikely. Thus, tank is over after probably a mere single 8ish overall pick this summer. I've always been OK with that, because I always knew how likely it was if we had even a few bright spots like Giddey allegedly is. But bottom line, he seems to be a clear floor raiser.

Well its not as simple as that.

We dont have that 1A star, but we have actually alot of really solid 3rd or 4th options.

Coby, Giddey, Ayo, Vooch ,Zo, Smith etc can play on any team in the league and have a positive impact. We have alot of solid players which is the real reason why we cant bottom out.

But next year, Get rid of Vooch, trade one or more of Coby/Ayo/Zo , that will be enough to give us a glass ceiling of like 20 wins.

Truth be told, its the offense is the real reason why our wins are inflated.

There are going to be games that teams are tired against us, or we just shoot the lights out. Which is why even against good teams, we still make a game of it or even win.

But If we played exactly the same way as last year, we might have like 15 wins right now.

[Chi town]

League Circles has been calling Giddey a floor raiser which I tend to agree with. His big improvement in his shot mechanics over the past 5 games has shown a much better and willing shooter with a motion that looks more fluid and repeatable. His shot has been what many of us have said could help him become a player you could build with.

Recent Giddey
His 20+ 7 and 7 per game on good percentages and 2+stocks per game with solid D is a player you can build with.
His no hesitation 3 is starting to create some gravity and players are beginning to stick with him at the 3pt line which is creating more space for cuts and drives for his teammates. His D has been solid for 25 games and his stocks and winning plays on D has jumped again the past 10 games. I dont' think he can get much better defensively due to his body type.

Ceiling Giddey
I've said it would take a Lonzo like transformation to his shot to open up his game and make him a keeper. His shot setup has been awful followed by the heave to compensate. This has been upgraded quite a bit. 50% there. He will still need to smooth it out and then improve his pre shot setup where he steps into his shot and doesn't wait to catch it and then setup. He is starting to do this too though as he is calling for the ball with his hands up as a target. Ceiling Giddey could be a 40% shooter on 5 3s per game. I don't ever see him getting the volume of Lonzo, becoming a movement 3pt shooter, or beign able to shoot 3s off the bounce but I do see him shooting 3s much like Ayo in the flow of the offense and eventually on fast and secondary breaks.

Defense can slightly improve but simply getting stronger. Don't see his lateral movement improving much.

Midrange. He has none. Zero. Push shot on a fast break doesn't count. He needs to develop this for him to to create more offense for himself. I do think he can do this and over time will do this.

FTs. He shooting alot more and I think this is where his real value can take a jump. Drawing fouls. Right now he only draws fouls at the rim. He needs a midrange game to pump fake and draw fouls midrange and in. He's smart this is doable.

Handle. His isn't great for a PG. Needs to develop this. Think he can and it would really help his offense. Could really elevate his playmaking and offense. Not convinced he will. His shooting has improved every year. His ball handling hasn't at all.

Attacking close outs. Giddey doesn't really do this because no really closes out on him. Will be interesting to see what happens when people guard him at the 3pt line on every possession. He will need to make midrange shots, get all the way to the bucket and playmake. We shall see.

Ceiling Giddey is an all star and probably the 2nd or 3rd best player on a contender. Giddey would need to grow in areas named above and have some great players next to him, one being better than him at creating offense for himself and a nearly equal playmaker. Giddey will need to be a plus player off ball on C+S and attacking closeouts. He will need a rim running C that can score on lobs and help him on D at the rim. He will need shooting and secondary playmaking. Buz is a great fit with Giddey. Higher IQ offensive players that move well off ball would help maximize his passing chops.

Will Giddey reach that ceiling?

What is ceiling Giddey worth on his next contract?

[Chi town]

If Giddey can raise our weak ass roster to the play-in next year he’s a damn franchise player. But he’s not. So that’s not going to happen. Look at Cunningham in Detroit and hundreds of other examples of better players on bad young teams.

Hell, we are 1-6 since the Lavine trade with Giddey playing like a maniac.

Detroit is pretty good!

Detroit wins since Cunningham was drafted: 23, 17, 14 & currently 32-26.

Yep. My point exactly. Which is great IMO. Suck next year for a shot at AJ and Peterson true franchise cornerstones and 1A options.

[DuckIII]

I dont' think so. Giddey could be really good and we still suck. I expect Vuc and Coby to be traded. Buz would have to take a major step and our rookie would have to be ROY to make the play in with that team. Jalen Smith is made of glass. DT and JP dont' have enough of a ceiling.

If Giddey can raise our weak ass roster to the play-in next year he’s a damn franchise player. But he’s not. So that’s not going to happen. Look at Cunningham in Detroit and hundreds of other examples of better players on bad young teams.

Hell, we are 1-6 since the Lavine trade with Giddey playing like a maniac.

Detroit is pretty good!

No doubt. What I meant was he was good before this year, running the team, and the team still could not win. And this has been true of many outstanding players who could not make a bad young team win. I doubt Giddey is an exception to that next year unless something significant changes with the roster.

[DuckIII]

If Giddey can raise our weak ass roster to the play-in next year he’s a damn franchise player. But he’s not. So that’s not going to happen. Look at Cunningham in Detroit and hundreds of other examples of better players on bad young teams.

Hell, we are 1-6 since the Lavine trade with Giddey playing like a maniac.

Detroit is pretty good!

Detroit wins since Cunningham was drafted: 23, 17, 14 & currently 32-26.

Right. That was the point I was trying to make, though I wasn’t very clear. And I realize those Detroit rosters and our roster, which though young will have more experience, are not an apples to apples comparison.

[League Circles]

I actually think that Coby can complement Giddey pretty well, so I'm not so sure I'd want to dump him this summer if Giddey is re-signed, which I suspect he will be. Yes, keeping Coby would hurt our 2026 draft position, but IMO that may be outweighed by how difficult it will be to find another scorer to play the 1 position while Giddey is playing point from the 3/4 spot.

I basically want Ayo traded regardless now that we have Ball under contract, as I feel they are redundant quality utility men, and Ball has more upside due to talent and contract status, even though he's older. Unfortunately I don't think we can get much for Ayo.

[kodo]

No doubt. What I meant was he was good before this year, running the team, and the team still could not win. And this has been true of many outstanding players who could not make a bad young team win. I doubt Giddey is an exception to that next year unless something significant changes with the roster.

Agreed 100%. If we took every player that put up good stats but couldn't raise the team to play-in by himself, we'd be passing on superstars. SGA a year older than Giddey could only muster 24 wins in OKC. We'd be having the "SGA only led this team to 24 wins, empty stats player let's let him walk in FA" conversation.

This is back to the FO's thinking on Jimmy Butler, "he was only able to lead us to the 1st round, we can't pay the supermax for this guy." The real problem was the FO couldn't put a good team around him, not Butler.

It's insane to hold Giddey to higher standards than Wemby, SAS was out of the play-in even before he got hurt.

[Infinity2152]

All of those guards showed more promise than Giddey

All of which guards? You mean the max contract players showed more promise than Giddey? Who's not looking at a max? Some of those guys are number 1 picks. They're supposed to be better.

Giddey was a sixth pick. Expectations should be closer to Coby White, maybe average level starter. I'm keeping Giddey over White every day.

All of the Guards that were listed. If his expectations should be where Coby White is then the contract should match it. Also Coby is not good enough as a primary ball handler. I want greatness not mediocrity. My standards are higher than AKs.

Two things:
Coby is generally considered a value contract. That's what it's called everywhere. His actual market value in a free agency right now is probably somewhere between $18 mill and $25 mill.

Coby's contract year, year 4, he put up 9.7pts, 2.8 assists, 2.9 rebounds. .7 steals in 23 minutes. 37.2% from three
Giddey's contract year: 12.9 pts, 6.4 assists, 7.4 rebounds in 29 minutes. 1.1 steals. 37% from three.

Giddey's having a better contract year than Coby. He's also younger than Coby was in year 4.

The thing about wanting greatness is you have to be willing to pay for greatness. No team's going to have 5 All-Star two-way players starting. Usually teams will have two max players at most. You need three other starters. You're going to have some mediocrity. If all your players are all that good, you won't be able to afford to keep them all anyway. There are maybe 5-6 teams where you would say every starter is above NBA average. Then they have $25-$40 mill players who are very good, but have flaws. $10-$25 mill players that are average starters/role players. You can't afford Curry, Booker, Lebron, KD, Jokic for any sustainable time.

Let's just be honest. Is it really you don't like Giddey at all, and don't want him at any price? Or do you actually think he's a bad NBA player that teams want to pay a lot of money to for some reason?

[Ice Man]

Agreed 100%. If we took every player that put up good stats but couldn't raise the team to play-in by himself, we'd be passing on superstars.

To that point, the Spurs won 22 last year with Wemby. Although now that you guys have raised the issue, it does resurface an old beef of mine. Do you know how many times people on this board wrote in 2017, defending the Butler trade, that Jimmy was nothing special because all he could do was lead the team to a .500 record? My second question, do you know how misinformed that comment was?

Aaagh, those responses drove me mad. I still feel the trauma from reading them.