2024-25 NBA MVP Discussion Thread (Pt. 3: Son of daughter of MVP thread)

[AleksandarN]

Free Throw Man on fire.

Missed the game. But he was on fire. Had like 20 pts in the first half.

[RRR3]

Do the Wolves just have their number or something? Twice they’ve beaten OKC now without Gobert both times too. Perhaps they match up better without Gobert? Granted Chet didn’t play tonight but neither did Randle, Donte or the aforementioned Gobert.

[kazyv]

I’m not saying the eye test is a reliable measure of defense by any means but I can’t think of another player besides Jokic who is pretty universally considered bad at defense but is apparently secretly good. So either he’s the biggest outlier ever for some indeterminable reason or the stats are wonky.

who except clueless people on the internet suggested jokic is bad on defense. next you're gonna tell me that "steals don't measure defense" because some guards can gamble for them to the detriment of team defense.

but nobody ever suggested that jokic is out here gambling for steals. so how does a guy that's "bad at defense" get to be 4th in steals? there's like how many "good at defense" players in the nba? and they all can't figure out how to get more steals than the slow bad defender guy?

[AleksandarN]

JoKiC Is a PoOr DeFeNdEr

"Obviously, Nikola is not a guy in the league that you would say is an elite defender, but he's one of the highest IQ guys in the league," Haliburton said. "And I thought he did a great job in the pick-and-roll making me have to make different reads."

[RRR3]

JoKiC Is a PoOr DeFeNdEr

"Obviously, Nikola is not a guy in the league that you would say is an elite defender, but he's one of the highest IQ guys in the league," Haliburton said. "And I thought he did a great job in the pick-and-roll making me have to make different reads."

Name another big man who can't protect the rim or switch who's a good defender lol

[tmorgan]

JoKiC Is a PoOr DeFeNdEr

"Obviously, Nikola is not a guy in the league that you would say is an elite defender, but he's one of the highest IQ guys in the league," Haliburton said. "And I thought he did a great job in the pick-and-roll making me have to make different reads."

Name another big man who can't protect the rim or switch who's a good defender lol

If you’re saying Jokic’s IQ and predictive thinking makes him, a rather slow guy, still a solid defender, and no one else really has that, I agree.

If you’re just spouting some bonehead hater nonsense that he must suck because he doesn’t block shots and guard perimeter shooters, I’d suggest YOU watch some games.

[RB34]

Chris Finch on the Thunder: “It’s so frustrating to play this team because they foul a ton. They really do. They foul all the time. And Then you can’t really touch Shai and it’s a very frustrating thing”

I’ve been saying this all year, there are a couple of teams that are allowed to play with a different level of physicality compared to everyone else. The Thunder are one of them.

At the beginning of the season the Warriors were also like this.

The ol’ defend without fouling technique.

[ILC]

Chris Finch on the Thunder: “It’s so frustrating to play this team because they foul a ton. They really do. They foul all the time. And Then you can’t really touch Shai and it’s a very frustrating thing”

I’ve been saying this all year, there are a couple of teams that are allowed to play with a different level of physicality compared to everyone else. The Thunder are one of them.

At the beginning of the season the Warriors were also like this.

The ol’ defend without fouling technique.

Yeah, and Celtics are one of them as well.

Read on Twitter

[RB34]

Chris Finch on the Thunder: “It’s so frustrating to play this team because they foul a ton. They really do. They foul all the time. And Then you can’t really touch Shai and it’s a very frustrating thing”

I’ve been saying this all year, there are a couple of teams that are allowed to play with a different level of physicality compared to everyone else. The Thunder are one of them.

At the beginning of the season the Warriors were also like this.

The ol’ defend without fouling technique.

Yeah, and Celtics are one of them as well.

Read on Twitter

Watch a game.

[Exp0sed]

1) SGA
2) Jokic
3) Giannis
4) Tatum
5) Mobley
6) Jackson Jr
7) Mitchell
8) Jalen Williams
9) KAT

Not sure after that.

I have Tatum at #3 over Giannis, the difference in games played is substantial

Mobley and Mitchell at 5/7 doesn't make much sense imo, the MVP race isn't the all-star game where multiple guys get rewarded for team success. Having multiple stars playing well (the same goes for J-Dub btw) actually weakenes the MVP case of each player, diminishing returns, less usage etc.

Also, Cade is def in the top 10, I think he may be as high as 5th or 6th in my book

[Exp0sed]

So if team record can't tell you anything about individual value would you be cool with giving the MVP to someone on the worst team in the league? Wouldn't a league MVP automatically raise team wins to at least a playoff level?

Going to take the bait and say that yes, the leagues most valuable player could absolutely come from a non-playoff team. Kareem literally won MVP while missing the playoffs. KG was also arguably the leagues most valuable player in 2005 even while his team missed the playoffs

Most MVP voters don't vote that way though. Kareem had something different going for him as well. He was dominant, and also incredibly popular. It made sense for the league to promote him despite being on a bad team.

Kareem was selected cuz the league wanted to promote him? lol

here's the thing: MVP caliber seasons do usually lift team at least to the playoffs as they "add" 20-25 wins over replacement and usually 41 wins will get u there so unless the team around the superstar is really, really bad - playoffs are basically guaranteed with such a player

There have been a few examples of indivudual seasons which deserved the MVP but with a truly bad team around the superstar. KG was already mentioned here, Jokic's 2022 MVP with Barton and Campazzo was one as well (even tho they did get to 48 wins, 6th seed and the playoffs)

Kareem in 74-75 avged like 27/14/5 with over 3 blocks and the Bucks without him were arguably the worst team in the NBA...

they were 35-30 with him and 3-14 without him. He missed a bunch of games and if not for that they would have made the playoffs. In fact he was right at the now minimal 65 games played

It was already his 3rd MVP, marketing? nah..

But yeah this doesnt happen often because on most seasons MVP players get "help" and even a little help plus an MVP season is typically enough for at least some level of record\team success

[yoyoboy]

1) SGA
2) Jokic
3) Giannis
4) Tatum
5) Mobley
6) Jackson Jr
7) Mitchell
8) Jalen Williams
9) KAT

Not sure after that.

I have Tatum at #3 over Giannis, the difference in games played is substantial

Mobley and Mitchell at 5/7 doesn't make much sense imo, the MVP race isn't the all-star game where multiple guys get rewarded for team success. Having multiple stars playing well (the same goes for J-Dub btw) actually weakenes the MVP case of each player, diminishing returns, less usage etc.

Also, Cade is def in the top 10, I think he may be as high as 5th or 6th in my book



Sent from my SM-A055F using RealGM mobile app

That's not how I see it. I don't think guys should be punished for contributing to better teams. Their impact should still be considered and rewarded. The only thing I care about is how much value do I think a guy is adding to his team.

[Exp0sed]

1) SGA
2

I have Tatum at #3 over Giannis, the difference in games played is substantial

Mobley and Mitchell at 5/7 doesn't make much sense imo, the MVP race isn't the all-star game where multiple guys get rewarded for team success. Having multiple stars playing well (the same goes for J-Dub btw) actually weakenes the MVP case of each player, diminishing returns, less usage etc.

Also, Cade is def in the top 10, I think he may be as high as 5th or 6th in my book

That's not how I see it. I don't think guys should be punished for contributing to better teams. Their impact should still be considered and rewarded. The only thing I care about is how much value do I think a guy is adding to his team.

well that's fine and your criteria\opinion is valid but historically, that's how it's always been percieved and voted

you realize your team is basically starting 4 all-star caliber players, right? similar to the C's depth in that regard. Celtics crushed the league last season, by this logic Tatum and Brown should have both been top 5 in MVP voting.

how many wins do the Cavs get this season without Garland and Allen?
are Mitchell and Mobley the two best and most impactful players on the team? sure..but the Cavs are this good because teams can't match that depth. don't have enough defenders with the right skill set and size, to cover all these guys at once. they're not good this good because Mobley and Mitchell are both having top 5-7 MVP caliber season (they aren't)

Mitchell is averging 24.2\4.3\4.8 on good (but not great) 58% TS. he's playing just 31 mpg, which suppresses his raw stats further but it's not even a great season by his own standarts. he averaged more points on higher scoring efficiency in both of his last two seasons in Cleveland. that's not a top 10 MVP season in any year, just because the Cavs have a ton of wins doesn't mean Mitchell gets magically bumped in the MVP race for no good reason, the Cavs are an elite team and they're doing it by committee

i'm a big Mobley fan, but you do realize he's averging 18.7\9.3\3 with 1.6 blocks? I get he's got a legit case for DPOY but that's still 19\9\2, not exactly the hallmarks of a top 5 MVP season

yeah, Cavs have a great core and Mobley is just 23 and is very likely imo to peak a couple of years from now as a top 5 player but he's not there yet. it's true that he too, is supressed by this deep Cavs team at least offensively but MVP doesn't measure hypotethicals it looks at what was actually produced by the players and with a deep team, usage drops for everyone but that affects the MVP race, always has and always will.

[scrabbarista]

JoKiC Is a PoOr DeFeNdEr

"Obviously, Nikola is not a guy in the league that you would say is an elite defender, but he's one of the highest IQ guys in the league," Haliburton said. "And I thought he did a great job in the pick-and-roll making me have to make different reads."

Name another big man who can't protect the rim or switch who's a good defender lol

Name another big averaging 30/13/10.

The point is: there can be one of something. Your argument is a fallacy.

[Mrakar]

Chris Finch on the Thunder: “It’s so frustrating to play this team because they foul a ton. They really do. They foul all the time. And Then you can’t really touch Shai and it’s a very frustrating thing”

I’ve been saying this all year, there are a couple of teams that are allowed to play with a different level of physicality compared to everyone else. The Thunder are one of them.

At the beginning of the season the Warriors were also like this.

The ol’ defend without fouling technique.

I wrote this like 3 months ago and then some guy came in and said that im trolling and not watching Thunder games
They have the best whistle in the league on both sides of the floor. They dont get called for agressive defense, and on the other side you cant breathe around SGA.

[Special_Puppy]

I’m not saying the eye test is a reliable measure of defense by any means but I can’t think of another player besides Jokic who is pretty universally considered bad at defense but is apparently secretly good. So either he’s the biggest outlier ever for some indeterminable reason or the stats are wonky.

Klay Thompson and Kobe in the opposite direction where they are considered great defenders while the stats don’t really like their defense. AFAIK that’s because their on-ball defense (which people pay attention to more) looks good while their off-ball defense is kinda poor. Might be a similar thing with Jokic where he sucks at altering shots (which people pay attention to) relative to other ATG big men , but dramatically increases his teams defensive rebounding rate and decreases his opponents Free Throw Rate (both are things people don’t really pay attention to) https://www.nbarapm.com/datasets/LifetimeRAPM

[Manimal]

Also, Cade is def in the top 10, I think he may be as high as 5th or 6th in my book

Agreed and I was just thinking about that yesterday. Honestly after Jokic and SGA, Cade has as good of a case as anyone. He's putting up some incredible numbers this season and carrying a team with little talent, that could easily finish with a top 4 record in the East. He should definitely finish between 5-10.

[tmorgan]

Also, Cade is def in the top 10, I think he may be as high as 5th or 6th in my book

Agreed and I was just thinking about that yesterday. Honestly after Jokic and SGA, Cade has as good of a case as anyone. He's putting up some incredible numbers this season and carrying a team with little talent, that could easily finish with a top 4 record in the East. He should definitely finish between 5-10.

Hey hey hey, take it easy there! You know I love Cade praise just about as much as anyone not named zeebneeb, but “carrying a team with little talent” is more than a tad harsh.

Duren’s a nice young athletic center that’s improving rapidly.
Ivey should be back next year, he can shoot and he’s really, really fast.
Ausar is an athletic marvel that plays killer defense.
Stewart is one of the best defensive bigs in the league and can shoot if we let him.
Holland has a lot of tools to build his game on and should have a nice future given time to improve.

Solid vets in Tobias Harris, Malik Beasley, Dennis Schroder, and THJ.

Cade’s the best player by a lot, for sure, but he’s not doing this alone (finally…).

[Manimal]

Also, Cade is def in the top 10, I think he may be as high as 5th or 6th in my book

Agreed and I was just thinking about that yesterday. Honestly after Jokic and SGA, Cade has as good of a case as anyone. He's putting up some incredible numbers this season and carrying a team with little talent, that could easily finish with a top 4 record in the East. He should definitely finish between 5-10.

Hey hey hey, take it easy there! You know I love Cade praise just about as much as anyone not named zeebneeb, but “carrying a team with little talent” is more than a tad harsh.

Duren’s a nice young athletic center that’s improving rapidly.
Ivey should be back next year, he can shoot and he’s really, really fast.
Ausar is an athletic marvel that plays killer defense.
Stewart is one of the best defensive bigs in the league and can shoot if we let him.
Holland has a lot of tools to build his game on and should have a nice future given time to improve.

Solid vets in Tobias Harris, Malik Beasley, Dennis Schroder, and THJ.

Cade’s the best player by a lot, for sure, but he’s not doing this alone (finally…).

All true, and I'm all about giving as much praise to Malik Beasley as possible (most underrated player in the league). But the best player is always going to get the most attention, and Cade deserves it all for what he's been able to do this season. Giannis and Dame can get **** for getting passed up by the greatest show in Little Caesars land.

[yoyoboy]

My thoughts on the Cade discussion and related things I've been pondering in general:

Cade is great but top 5 would definitely be too high for my liking. He shoots 1.5 percentage points below league average efficiency and turns it over 4.4 times per game. There's value in being able to take on a huge creation role and pull a team of role players to an average offense. And being 3rd in the league in time of possession and 4th in USG% is probably a little more of a load than he should be tasked with at this stage of his career. But I think when it comes to the MVP conversation, there are at least 10 names providing more significant value to their teams. Especially because in my eyes, a player who adds 15 wins to a 30-win team should not be treated the same as a player who adds 15 wins to a 50-win team.

For one, it is much harder to add those marginal wins to a team that is already good compared to a team that's not good. That can be observed by looking at the relationship between SRS/Net Rating and Win Totals. Especially now with the rise of 3P shooting leading to more variance, it's becoming more and more difficult to keep those losses off your record, so I think SRS/Net Rating disparities between teams are even more indicative of a team's "goodness" level today than those differences in win totals.

Better teams also tend to be better equipped than worse teams to keep things afloat when the star player exits the game. RAPM and comparable metrics try to be able to account for this by estimating a guy's value compared to a replacement-level guy rather than the guys present on the team, but they're not perfect.

Furthermore, I think as it pertains to the MVP conversation, we need to prioritize ceiling raising ability over floor raising ability. The ultimate goal is to win a championship, and the teams that really matter in the grand scheme of things are the ones that can make it far in the postseason. That's not to say a player shouldn't be able to win the MVP on an average (or even potentially a below average) team. But we need to look at what they're doing and try to approximate that impact in the context of a better team to gauge whether it would hold or not. I totally get that this kind of mental adjustment can be unfair to guys who can't help the fact that they're surrounded with inferior talent or managed by an incompetent GM. A guy who's designated as a floor raiser might simply be doing what's most necessary to yield wins with the roster around him, yet on a better team, he'd slightly adjust that role in order to maintain or even advance that impact in the new context. I think of guys like Philly Iguodala and Brooklyn Mikal Bridges, and how, on better teams with more creation, their impact was able to shine more; yet on their worse teams, there simply weren't better alternatives present on the roster to alleviate them of those higher usage creation roles they're not best suited for. However, ultimately, to me it's the lesser of two evils to reward the guy demonstrating clear elite value to a great team over the guy demonstrating equivalent impact on middling team, which could be higher than the former in a better situation - but could also be worse. The guy on the worse team has more to "prove."

Finally, and this is a point that isn't backed by any data but just something I feel on a gut level...I do think the best teams generally get opposing teams' best shots. Therefore, I do look a bit differently upon players performing at a certain level on elite teams and even more so at players doing so on historically great teams.

I will say though, I think this season is a relatively weak year in the MVP race outside of the very top due to injuries, certain stars having down years, and a handful of teams being in messy situations. While I don't see Cade as being on the edge of top 10 player in the league right now, he might actually warrant being somewhere in the 10-15 range of the MVP ladder for me. But I would probably have him behind: SGA, Jokic, Tatum, Giannis, JJJ, J Dub, Mitchell, Mobley, Sabonis, KAT, and Curry. I think he's in a group after that alongside Wagner, Davis, Durant, LeBron, Garland, White, Siakam, Brunson, Kyrie, Edwards, Trae, Harden, Maxey, and Zubac. He'd be ahead of most of those names.