TGW wrote:I also agree with whoever said that the idea of trading Deni wasn't a bad, it's just that they got about 60 cents to the dollar IMO. Personally, I am not overly impressed with Carrington (he has a nice jumpshot and a good demeanor and not much else), they got nothing for Brogdon, and a mediocre pick 5 years from now.
Anyway you slice it, it's still a **** trade to me.
Sounds like my take, and I'd agree with it, I felt they should have gotten a pick between 6-10 in '25 or '26, and some later speculative asset like the '29 first they got. That would have been fine, the 14th pick in a crappy draft regarded as a contender for the medal stand of the worst drafts of the century alongside 2000 and 2013 (Giannis, the hidden gem, the French big man too etc) was not and is not acceptable. It simply wasn't enough. What were we ever likely to get, at best, with a mid first, from a draft w/no players scouts were confident had any chance at being a star? That's why the draft was hated. That's why the picks were cheap. #1 no stars, #2 even if there were hidden stars like Giannis, nobody had any inkling whatsoever who it might be, so it would be pure randomness that you'd get one. The most likely result with the '24 pick we got was a bust, a bench player, or a complimentary 4th to 6th best guy on a playoff team. Considering Deni's play in '23-'24, and how he was cheap and cost controlled for nearly half a decade in a league with insanely escalating lunatic contracts, he had WAY more value, to me, than that ---- pick, and speculation in '29, which is why I was against it when it happened. I much, much, much preferred the idea of flipping him going into the '25 draft, or '26, when we have better, deeper drafts, with legit guys through the top 8-10 that have a narrative that's believeable that could lead to stardom or at least, top 3 player on a playoff team.
That was the trade to make, and its clear based upon is performance this year and last, that we could have certainly got the equivalent pick in '25 or '26 (mid first, or better and a later first).
So the payoff, Bub, '29 first, speculative 2nds, and a contract to trade as an expiring, was not enough, period, to me. However, there's two things that aren't being mentioned here:
#1: Trading Deni turned us into a virtual lock to be 1.01 pre-lottery or at worst 1.02, that is IMMENSE VALUE, and clearly part of the value they considered coming back in the trade.
#2: I do think it's wrong to regard the Blazers pick in '29 as mediocre. It's more valuable than that because it's a trade piece from a team that is approaching '24-'29 from the worst perspective possible: They aren't quite tanking, they aren't contending. What does that usually deliver for teams, especially teams that aren't in preferred destination cities like NY, Miami, Texas and Phoenix (low taxes), LA etc? What it means, is Portland's build is probably either going to cause them to implode down the line, or at best, be a typical wizards team circa '28-'29 (24-40 wins), I very much suspect that wild card pick, which admittedly could be anything, is far more likely to land between 5 and 12, then it is between 13-25.
So yeah, I don't think the return was good enough, period, but I get the approach behind it, and I still think in the fullness of time, its likely to be close to a push if Portland goes the way I expect, and if Bub develops to around 60-75% or more of the ceiling that was projected and beyond all that, we have more lottery balls in back to back mega drafts, we may lose anyway, there's basically a 60% chance we get totally ----ed in both lotteries, but 60% chance of getting screwed is certainly less than the scale of the screw job that would have come if we finished 2nd to 5th worst which would have included substantial risk of picking 6th, 7th or 8th. Hopefully we get luck, and to this point, we've come close to locking in a top 5 pick, and reasonable odds of a top 3-4 pick (40% top 3, 52% top 4), and if we do land a top 3, and to my mind (I like Edgecombe a lot) top 4 pick, it will have been worth it immediately, and that doesn't even take into account that the trade redounds through the probably deeper '26 draft where we are favorites to be worst in the league again.
