Fringe First Round Prospects May Opt To Stay In College Over NBA Draft

[RealGM Wiretap]

In the past, if a player had a chance at being a first-round pick in the NBA Draft, they'd leave college. With NIL payments growing in size, that's causing some players to rethink their NBA plans. Some players may choose to stay in school longer than they would have previously.

In their latest look at the 2026 NBA Draft (two drafts out), ESPN projects that some potential 2025 first-round picks could opt to stay in school. This includes Jase Richardson of Michigan State, Thomas Sorber of Georgetown, and Ian Jackson and Drake Powell of North Carolina.

These players could all make nearly as much in NIL deals as they would if they slipped into the second round of the 2025 draft.

In addition, older players may opt to exhaust their full college eligibility, while maximizing NIL money, before heading to the pros. This group could include Tomislav Ivisic of Illinois, Joseph Tugler of Houston, and J.T. Toppin and Darrion Williams of Texas Tech.

All of the players in that second group stand to make considerably more on NIL deals than they would as second-round picks. This is especially true if those players were to land two-way contracts in the NBA.

Via Jeremy Woo/ESPN

[23artest23]

I see this as a long-term positive for both the NBA and college game.

[Cassius]

Who would have thought that ending exploitation would be good for everyone. It’s lame that the schools can continue to give coaches millions and pay the kids nothing beyond the scholarship, but this seems like a pretty sustainable solution.

The other benefit is that as more teams retain more upperclassmen, it’s going to take very special freshman to show that they’re good enough to be one and done. It’s one thing when the half of the top 25 only plays freshmen and sophomores, it’s another when they start two juniors, a senior and one superb freshman.

I’m not sure how the transfer portal will impact this, but I hope we see some more continuity as that’s generally best for everyone.

[beefman]

you're going to start seeing team value older college players more in the new cap environment. star players salaries eat up so much of the salary cap, they will need steady complementary players. you can't have a team with 2-3 star players and all rookies. some teams may not even have the cap room to sign vets. so they're going to start targeting older college players who are cheap but are bit older and developed and don't require as much coaching resources as a 19 or 20 year old rookie

[PaoliBulldog]

I'd like a system where drafted players can stay in school & retain college eligibility until they appear in a professional game.

I hate the NCAA; its greed incentivized players to leave as early as possible. But I miss great college basketball.