Where do you think Jayson Tatum ends his career all time?

Post #1 » by **zimpy27** » Wed Feb 26, 2025 10:11 pm

How high do you think Tatum gets in your all time rank?

Does he approach top 20? Top 40?

Does he pass up Pippen? Drexler? Barkley?

uncleduck13 · Post #2 » by **uncleduck13** » Wed Feb 26, 2025 10:23 pm

Top 20-25. Finishes his career a 12x All-Star, 10x All-NBA, 1x MVP, 3x champion.

ReggiesKnicks · Post #3 » by **ReggiesKnicks** » Wed Feb 26, 2025 10:27 pm

He currently ranks 68th all-time in Post-Season WS, 41st in RS BPM and 127th in RS VORP.

Another Finals run puts him around #50 all-time in Post-Season WS.

He has a ways to go to enter the Top 50 but I think he is firmly in the Top 100 right now.

He is firmly behind Kawhi Leonard still for me, who is in the 30s on most lists. Is he ahead of Vince/McGrady, who are around Top 60-75 guys? I'd be hesitant at this juncture.

I think he ends up like Karl Malone, a perennial Top 5-10 player in the league for 10+ years, maybe never the actual best player in the NBA all things considered. Tatum's game should age well barring injury and he has stayed incredibly healthy so far, which is a good sign. That puts him inside the Top 30 and knocking on the door for Top 20 (I think Malone is in most Top 20s but closer to 20 than 10).

I'll say Kobe Bryant as a high-end outcome (Basically on the outside looking in of the Top 10) and John Havlicek on the low-end (Top 40-45-ish).

hugepatsfan · Post #4 » by **hugepatsfan** » Wed Feb 26, 2025 10:30 pm

I think it's hard to pin down because he's still improving as a playmaker. Not that assist per game is everything, but he's clearing his previous career high (set last year) by about 1 per game (4.9 to 5.8). And while his turnovers per game has jumped from 2.5 last year 2.9 with the jump in assists, that's still below his career high so it's not like it's just volume vs. him actually getting better at it. I don't think we've seen a "peak" for him yet.

He's 26 years old and every player's prime is different but if you google "when is prime for an NBA player" it says 27 to 31. I think most of his game is pretty "locked" in at this point. I don't expect his scoring to really gradually change other than volume based on how BOS's roster composition changes and year to year 3 point shooting percentage fluctuations. He's already a terrific defender and good rebounder. Playmaking is the one aspect of his game that I don't think the books even close to closed on yet. This is his 8th season and I firmly expect his playmaking in the rest of his career to be noticeably better than it's been so far. That's a huge swing trait for him and how good his peak is going to end up being. He's never going to be a Luka or Jokic with the nightly triple doubles, but I also don't think it's out of the question that he eventually builds up to a 30/8/8 type of peak at some point over the next 5 years and that could maybe get him an MVP one year.

He's going to end up with an impressive number of all NBA 1st teams if he keeps his durability like it has been. BOS has some payroll questions coming up but overall seems set up for success, though it remains to be seen if that translates into any more championship(s). I really think there's still a lot of variability left. He could continue "just" basically being mostly what he has been so far. But I also don't think it's out of the question that he ends his career with like 8 all NBA 1st teams, 3 championship rings and a 30/8/8 peak season and an MVP season. It could get kind of hard to ignore at a certain point.

Godymas · Post #5 » by **Godymas** » Wed Feb 26, 2025 10:36 pm

He's comfortably on a top 30 trajectory. Already has a ring, is about to get his 4th All NBA selection, and he's only 26.

He scores 2k points a year and he's going to be at 14k at age 26. Barring injury he'll break 30k at age 34.

Baz · Post #6 » by **Baz** » Wed Feb 26, 2025 10:38 pm

30-40

PD28 · Post #7 » by **PD28** » Wed Feb 26, 2025 10:38 pm

35-45

Ambrose · Post #8 » by **Ambrose** » Wed Feb 26, 2025 10:41 pm

As of today, he's headed for the 25-40 range, but if he keeps having all this success and down the line some new stat comes out that shows he's better than people thought, I wouldn't be surprised if future generations rank him higher.

Jcool0 · Post #9 » by **Jcool0** » Wed Feb 26, 2025 11:06 pm

Top 50? Boston has build a killer team around him to get him his title (s?) but he will probably finish his career with no MVPs. Jaylen Brown was the finals MVP in so far his lone championship season and who knows how long they will be able to keep him. Great all around player but never that top 5 guy.

Sweet Serenity · Post #10 » by **Sweet Serenity** » Wed Feb 26, 2025 11:23 pm

GOAT .. no I’m kidding

Depends on his individual feats as well. He’s on track to be a top 5 regular season scorer of all time & could potentially go as high as second in playoff points behind Lebron.
If he ends up with 3 championships & 1 MVP which isn’t ridiculous to think about that definitely warrants top 20 of all time.

scrabbarista · Post #11 » by **scrabbarista** » Wed Feb 26, 2025 11:26 pm

Very hard to predict, but if you force me, I'd say 30-40, closer to 30.

itrsteve · Post #12 » by **itrsteve** » Wed Feb 26, 2025 11:44 pm

He's definitely going to end as the Celtics all time scoring leader

Which is pretty good fOr HaViNg A sTaCkEd TeAm

Post #13 » by **zimpy27** » Wed Feb 26, 2025 11:52 pm

Seems like people think around a 30-35 rank. I mean that comfortably makes him an all time great player.

That's around Ewing, Kawhi, Reggie, Pippen, Stockton

NZB2323 · Post #14 » by **NZB2323** » Thu Feb 27, 2025 12:03 am

If he stays healthy I feel like Havlicek is the right comparison for him. He’s not the best player in the league but wins a lot, plays defense, can score a lot, can do a lot of little things, can play either guard or forward, and has had a lot of success.

So I would say top 30ish.

DLoMor · Post #15 » by **DLoMor** » Thu Feb 27, 2025 12:08 am

Barely top 100, the ones saying top 20 are delusional homer biased Celtics fans. Hes already overrated enough as it is.

ryan in Maine · Post #16 » by **ryan in Maine** » Thu Feb 27, 2025 12:43 am

It's going to be hard to rank him outside of the 30's when he's done winning championships. If he finishes his career with a couple more rings i can see him in the 20's because he's a Celtic. I understand it's a new era but he shows up in the Celtics record books that should translate more cleanly to the league at large.

His iso dribble and his pull up three get on my nerves. And he could greatly benefit from playing aggressive angry basketball. But that's pretty easy to live with when it results in championships. Relatively minor quabbles for a guy who can run the offense at 6'9". Yeah you guys didn't notice he can run your offense now.

NZB2323 · Post #17 » by **NZB2323** » Thu Feb 27, 2025 2:44 am

ReggiesKnicks wrote:He currently ranks 68th all-time in Post-Season WS, 41st in RS BPM and 127th in RS VORP.

Another Finals run puts him around #50 all-time in Post-Season WS.

He has a ways to go to enter the Top 50 but I think he is firmly in the Top 100 right now.

He is firmly behind Kawhi Leonard still for me, who is in the 30s on most lists. Is he ahead of Vince/McGrady, who are around Top 60-75 guys? I'd be hesitant at this juncture.

I think he ends up like Karl Malone, a perennial Top 5-10 player in the league for 10+ years, maybe never the actual best player in the NBA all things considered. Tatum's game should age well barring injury and he has stayed incredibly healthy so far, which is a good sign. That puts him inside the Top 30 and knocking on the door for Top 20 (I think Malone is in most Top 20s but closer to 20 than 10).

I'll say Kobe Bryant as a high-end outcome (Basically on the outside looking in of the Top 10) and John Havlicek on the low-end (Top 40-45-ish).

You have Havlicek outside of the top 40?

8 championships
1 Finals MVP
11x all-NBA
13x all-star
8x all-defense
22nd in points
40th in WS

ReggiesKnicks · Post #18 » by **ReggiesKnicks** » Thu Feb 27, 2025 2:56 am

NZB2323 wrote:
ReggiesKnicks wrote:He currently ranks 68th all-time in Post-Season WS, 41st in RS BPM and 127th in RS VORP.

Another Finals run puts him around #50 all-time in Post-Season WS.

He has a ways to go to enter the Top 50 but I think he is firmly in the Top 100 right now.

He is firmly behind Kawhi Leonard still for me, who is in the 30s on most lists. Is he ahead of Vince/McGrady, who are around Top 60-75 guys? I'd be hesitant at this juncture.

I think he ends up like Karl Malone, a perennial Top 5-10 player in the league for 10+ years, maybe never the actual best player in the NBA all things considered. Tatum's game should age well barring injury and he has stayed incredibly healthy so far, which is a good sign. That puts him inside the Top 30 and knocking on the door for Top 20 (I think Malone is in most Top 20s but closer to 20 than 10).

I'll say Kobe Bryant as a high-end outcome (Basically on the outside looking in of the Top 10) and John Havlicek on the low-end (Top 40-45-ish).

You have Havlicek outside of the top 40?

8 championships
1 Finals MVP
11x all-NBA
13x all-star
8x all-defense
22nd in points
40th in WS

I don't have a list but RealGM Top 100 had him at #37. His CORP per 70sFan on T&T ranges from 29th to 43rd.

I don't think having him at #43 or #47 would be a travesty, no.

MrBigShot · Post #19 » by **MrBigShot** » Thu Feb 27, 2025 3:56 am

uncleduck13 wrote:Top 20-25. Finishes his career a 12x All-Star, 10x All-NBA, 1x MVP, 3x champion.

He simply does not have the peak to finish that high irregardless of how great his resume ends up being. Realistically Tatum ends as a top ~40-50 player of all time.

ReggiesKnicks · Post #20 » by **ReggiesKnicks** » Thu Feb 27, 2025 4:04 am

MrBigShot wrote:
uncleduck13 wrote:Top 20-25. Finishes his career a 12x All-Star, 10x All-NBA, 1x MVP, 3x champion.

He simply does not have the peak to finish that high irregardless of how great his resume ends up being. Realistically Tatum ends as a top ~40-50 player of all time.

I don't think his Peak is that far off from Malone or Kobe.

I think his Peak is better than guys like Stockton, Miller, Pippen.