OT: Investing/Stocks/Bonds/Mutual Funds/Crypto

[MickeyDavis]

Nvidia earnings come out at 3:20 CDT. My guess is earnings will be good but guidance will be tempered. We'll see.

As we've been talking about, DCA into low cost index funds is the best strategy. And sure, have some "fun money" to put into other stuff.

When I stop contributing to a 401K soon I'll have to retool my investments somewhat. It will be the first time in many years I won't have money going in, I have to manage what I have. I have some cash to invest but nothing like the money that goes into my 401K each year (I max it) This will also be the last year I can max out my Roth unless I decide to go back to work. Interest and dividends don't count as earned income.

[MickeyDavis]

Nvidia a slight beat on the top and bottom lines. Haven't heard the guidance yet. Stock is treading water in after hours trading.

ETA revenue guidance is a bit higher than expected (they only do it for a quarter, not the year) but gross margin projections are slightly lower than expected (but still over 70%, which is crazy).

[Ayt]

Making a statement about the "current administration" is indeed political whether you think it is or not. Talk about specific stocks, funds or whatever but leave the political commentary out. We can agree to disagree but I always err on the side of caution. It's been that way here for 20+ years. I don't want to derail this otherwise good thread. Thx. MD

[brewbucks]

CLOV earnings call tomorrow

[MickeyDavis]

CLOV earnings call tomorrow

Are you invested? Or thinking about it?

[brewbucks]

CLOV earnings call tomorrow

Are you invested? Or thinking about it?

A mix of both. I bought 50 shares a few weeks ago and debating on throwing more money down as a fun longterm gamble.

[brewbucks]

I don't think trying to the time the market, or having a complete shift in investing philosophy is wise. You need to pick something that matches your risk tolerance long-term, and stick with that allocation. For me, I'm at 80% index funds, 10% individual stocks, 10% HYSA (may move to bonds there, haven't decided yet) and I try to re-balance to those percentages quarterly. Even if we do have a major downturn in equities, I just see that as a major buying opportunity assuming you have a 10+ year horizon until you need the funds.

Just keep DCA'ing.

The best approach.

[Be Here Now]

There is little doubt that the economic vibes are not good right now. The fed basically has to lower rates to reduce the interest payments on the debt but that will almost certainly cause inflation to come roaring back. Cutting taxes obviously also very inflationary. I think we are in for it here.

What do you invest in during times like this? I would argue stay the course and continue to invest in your employer's retirement plan, maybe allocate 10-15% to anti-money like bitcoin or gold, and continue to dca into proven etf's. My hysa is a loan to my business at prime rate, which at 7.5% is really solid. I'm taking that monthly interest amount and buying costco stock beginning of each month. I hate sitting on cash. It just seems to always be a losing proposition with the increase of money supply year over year.

[midranger]

Land and bullets is a good hedge

[MickeyDavis]

Land and bullets is a good hedge

I've been thinking about REITs for income but I need to do more research.

[ReasonablySober]

Land and bullets is a good hedge

Can confirm. I do quarterly earnings statements for an arms manufacturer and every single quarter is an announcement of increased sales and earnings.

[wallus]

I will be doing my usual buys but absolutely nothing extra until the chaos settles down

[MickeyDavis]

Target date funds are just funds made up of other funds. Most have 4:
1. US Stock Fund
2. Int Stock Fund
3. US Bond Fund
4. International Bond Fund

Those close to the current year may have some TIPs in there.

The expense ratio of target date funds is usually higher than the individual funds that are within in. For example, the Vanguard 2045 Fund has an expense ratio of 0.08% and is currently made up of:

Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Institutional Plus Shares - 51.40%
Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund - 32.20%
Vanguard Total Bond Market II Index Fund - 11.40%
Vanguard Total International Bond II Index Fund - 5.00%

The expense ratio's of those 4 are all less than 0.08%. I have some friends who therefore do their own "Target Date" funds by using the Vanguard allocation percentages and buying those 4 funds individually to save on the expenses. The downside is you have to rebalance yourself each year rather than having the target date fund do it automatically. The set it and forget it approach works for many/most, but it's something I'm thinking about doing since I already spend a lot of time on my investments so rebalancing isn't a big deal.

Besides some cash, most of my retirement money is in a 500 index ETF and some in a target date fund.

[LUKE23]

I've done presentations on investor behavior in a past life and, while the numbers change depending on the time frame you look at, the story is the same... The average investor underperforms the S&P 500 and if you take a 20 year time frame and miss just the top 10 days in the market, your return is likely around half of what the S&P did over that same timeframe. Of course it works the opposite way too and individual results may vary, etc., etc., but you absolutely crank up the risk factor trying to time things.

Yeah, to me, it's just like gambling if you are trying to pull money out and then put it back in. You can accurately predict a downturn in the market just based on everything going on and the last two years of the market, but what you can't do is predict the bottom. If you are 10-15 or more years out from retirement, why not invest monthly as the market is dipping, and then just let it sit there?

In the last 50 years, the stock market has had a gain in 39 of them. Even if we have a dip now, history says you hold that money and it's going to go back up. Just keep a consistent approach and time is on your side.

Personally, I like monthly investing and sticking to a portfolio allocation (80/10/10 for me). It takes thinking and rash decision making out of the process.

[chonestown]

Look, if you're making a conscious decision to invest in certain assets and companies, you are on some level endorsing the mission and business practices of those assets and companies. Like that's part of investment. I'm not bringing up any particulars, not going into politics and not targeting any posts or posters, but that's the deal.

[MickeyDavis]

True if you're buying individual stocks but if you're in index funds you're investing in hundreds or more companies. Sector funds are more specific.

[chonestown]

True if you're buying individual stocks but if you're in index funds you're investing in hundreds or more companies. Sector funds are more specific.

That's what I mean by indicating conscious decision. Buying stock X or product Y is a different level of intent.

[MickeyDavis]

20 or so years ago I did some options trading. Mostly just buying calls, sometimes puts. Occasionally a straddle or strangle but nothing too crazy. I did fairly well but it took a lot of time and I stopped. I may dabble a bit for fun when I have more time next month. You have to be approved by your brokerage, which is just answering some questions about your financial situation, your investing experience and acknowledging the risks. I never got into anything that required a margin account nor would I now. Any options trading I do now would just be for fun.

[brewbucks]

Target date funds are just funds made up of other funds. Most have 4:
1. US Stock Fund
2. Int Stock Fund
3. US Bond Fund
4. International Bond Fund

Those close to the current year may have some TIPs in there.

The expense ratio of target date funds is usually higher than the individual funds that are within in. For example, the Vanguard 2045 Fund has an expense ratio of 0.08% and is currently made up of:

Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Institutional Plus Shares - 51.40%
Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund - 32.20%
Vanguard Total Bond Market II Index Fund - 11.40%
Vanguard Total International Bond II Index Fund - 5.00%

The expense ratio's of those 4 are all less than 0.08%. I have some friends who therefore do their own "Target Date" funds by using the Vanguard allocation percentages and buying those 4 funds individually to save on the expenses. The downside is you have to rebalance yourself each year rather than having the target date fund do it automatically. The set it and forget it approach works for many/most, but it's something I'm thinking about doing since I already spend a lot of time on my investments so rebalancing isn't a big deal.

Besides some cash, most of my retirement money is in a 500 index ETF and some in a target date fund.

I’ve been using the Fidelity Freedom Index Target Date Funds for my Roth IRA for 2024, but will probably switch fully to the 500 Index ETFs (FXAIX) for Fidelity for 2025 and beyond. I have a large windfall that I will be throwing into VOO on the brokerage side. I wish I would’ve known what to do years ago with the windfall to build compound interest instead of sitting in a HYSA (would’ve doubled up now), but better late than never.

[midranger]

Are we just doing monthly market wide pump and dumps at this point?