Tank Watch 2025

[FlyingArrow]

I'm a tad confused by these boards. So we shouldn't tank b/c a top prospect isn't perfect. The alternative being? We get the 10th seed, get pummeled in the play-in, lose our pick and come back into next season to do what? Roll it back? Tank again if Joel gets surgery?

If I thought there was a 5% chance that Embiid could be at 100% for the playoff run, I would love to see us chasing that 10 seed. With a healthy Embiid, we can win any given game. With a healthy Embiid, Maxey, and a 34-year old PG (instead of the 54-year old we've seen most of the season), we can win any given series. Not that we'd be the favorite to win every given series - let alone the championship. But we'd be a contender. I would love to see us take that shot. Chances of a championship even with that setup: less than 5%. But that's more than the 0% that half the league gets each year.

Embiid as a top-level player has always had an inherent shelf-life. We may never see him at that level again. If there's a shot that he can be there this year - let's chase it! But there's no chance. Shut him down. Let him rest. Let the doctors attempt miracles. Let's hope he's there next year.

This year, with hobbled Embiid or with no Embiid, our ceiling is losing to the 1-seed in 5 games. For that kind of result, it's not worth further injury risk to Embiid and the guaranteed loss of our draft pick. Shut it down and tank.

[76ciology]

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Next year’s draft class is the draft class to tank for

[Iverson Armband]

We have a shot at a top 5 pick and we have two stud guards under the age of 25. What is the point of gutting the team?

(I was also alright with trading Jrue, but in hindsight, was it that great of a trade? We basically got Noel, Saric, and Landry Shamet out of it.)

That was a bad trade. They could have still achieved their goal of bottoming out without doing that.

At the time, Noel had a higher upside. Jrue never turned into a top-tier superstar. Noel didn't, either, but at the time of the trade, there was a chance for Noel to do that. The whole point of The Process was to get as many high-upside players as possible until we "hit" on one or two. Noel was part of that process. Embiid was a hit - we did in fact get a top-5 player. The Process was a success. You get that #1 guy and that opens a window. Our window with Embiid is closing, and may already be closed if he never comes back healthy.

The Process could have been a resounding success if only...
if only we didn't waste all of Hinkie's treasure chest of resources
if only Ben Simmons and Markelle Fultz didn't catch shooting-phobia
if only we kept Jimmy Butler instead of Simmons when decision-time came
if only that Kawhi shot didn't go in
if only we didn't handicap our roster with the Tobias contract

You could probably add 5 or 10 more to that list.

Still a bad trade.

[76ciology]

That was a bad trade. They could have still achieved their goal of bottoming out without doing that.

At the time, Noel had a higher upside. Jrue never turned into a top-tier superstar. Noel didn't, either, but at the time of the trade, there was a chance for Noel to do that. The whole point of The Process was to get as many high-upside players as possible until we "hit" on one or two. Noel was part of that process. Embiid was a hit - we did in fact get a top-5 player. The Process was a success. You get that #1 guy and that opens a window. Our window with Embiid is closing, and may already be closed if he never comes back healthy.

The Process could have been a resounding success if only...
if only we didn't waste all of Hinkie's treasure chest of resources
if only Ben Simmons and Markelle Fultz didn't catch shooting-phobia
if only we kept Jimmy Butler instead of Simmons when decision-time came
if only that Kawhi shot didn't go in
if only we didn't handicap our roster with the Tobias contract

You could probably add 5 or 10 more to that list.

Still a bad trade.

Yeah, I agree with Armband—it was a terrible trade.

You don’t give up a 22-year-old star guard who can shoot and defend multiple positions for a dime-a-dozen big, especially one barely pushing 100kg, coming off a major injury, and limited to defense and lobs.

I’d like to say I didn’t see it coming back then, but I’m just a fan. That’s the difference between me and GMs paid millions—the foresight to pass on Nerlens, like five other teams did. Meanwhile, smart GMs like Ferry, Masai, and Presti were targeting Giannis in that draft. Even Morey admitted he was surprised we didn’t take a shot on him.

And it’s not like we played it safe. MCW was a high-risk prospect—he couldn’t shoot or score, the worst type of guard for the modern NBA.

[76ciology]

I don’t get this whole “we wasted all of Hinkie’s resources” argument.

What resources? Most of the guys we drafted turned out to be busts or role players. The Lakers pick we all fantasized about ended up being a dud.

And despite that, we’ve still had one of the most talented teams almost every season.

How much more talent do you need to build around Embiid? This season is the perfect example— even if Paul George plays to his usual level, we’d probably still be a lottery team because the guy we built around either isn’t showing up or we have no idea when he will.

We can’t play fast or run a non-Embiid scheme because he’d just throw tantrums on the court.

I was thinking last night how embarrassing it would be if we landed Cooper Flagg and still couldn’t make it past the second round—which, honestly, feels like a very real possibility.

[phifans]

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Next year’s draft class is the draft class to tank for

I don't mind we doing this again next year even though the pick is highly protected. We've been screwed up anyway have nothing to lose.

[Foshan]

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Next year’s draft class is the draft class to tank for

I don't mind we doing this again next year even though the pick is highly protected. We've been screwed up anyway have nothing to lose.

Agreed. I think Embiid will need a full year off, so we tank now, move PG next year in another tank, and then win the chip the next year. Easy. lol

[the_process]

We have a shot at a top 5 pick and we have two stud guards under the age of 25. What is the point of gutting the team?

(I was also alright with trading Jrue, but in hindsight, was it that great of a trade? We basically got Noel, Saric, and Landry Shamet out of it.)

In hindsight, they definitely should have kept Jrue. They could have tanked with him, he wasn’t good enough to prevent that. And it probably would have given Hinkie more cover.

[Negrodamus]

We have a shot at a top 5 pick and we have two stud guards under the age of 25. What is the point of gutting the team?

(I was also alright with trading Jrue, but in hindsight, was it that great of a trade? We basically got Noel, Saric, and Landry Shamet out of it.)

In hindsight, they definitely should have kept Jrue. They could have tanked with him, he wasn’t good enough to prevent that. And it probably would have given Hinkie more cover.

Yea, I get it in hindsight. I mean, Nerlens was one of the best defensive prospects I had ever seen, so I understand the allure of getting him and a future first when the idea was to suck for the foreseeable future. I also imagine Hinkie was doing Holiday a favor by putting him on another team willing to compete rather than surrounding him with a bunch of ass players and locking him in to sucking forever.

[the_process]

Morey has to speak win now while acting retooling for the future.

I’m sure they’re going to run it back next year, but he has to privately know it’s not going to work and he has to hedge to Maxey’s timeline and play style.

[mjkvol]

I'm a tad confused by these boards. So we shouldn't tank b/c a top prospect isn't perfect. The alternative being? We get the 10th seed, get pummeled in the play-in, lose our pick and come back into next season to do what? Roll it back? Tank again if Joel gets surgery?

What exactly do those complaining about the quality of the prospects see as the benefit to not trying to keep the pick?

My point hasn't been to not tank, as I've been advocating tanking the season since we were around 5-20 or something similar.

I've just reacted to the idea that the world is ending if we don't get our pick being expressed by some people. If the pick goes to OKC, we're done with them and can just move on with the rebuild. This team isn't seriously competing next year anyway, so Morey using the season to clear out the dreck, maybe add some picks and set us up for summer 2026 is fine with me.

The fact that the draft might be a bit overrated with regard to real difference makers is kind of a reason not to obsess on it.

[Mik317]

I don’t get this whole “we wasted all of Hinkie’s resources” argument.

What resources? Most of the guys we drafted turned out to be busts or role players. The Lakers pick we all fantasized about ended up being a dud.

And despite that, we’ve still had one of the most talented teams almost every season.

How much more talent do you need to build around Embiid? This season is the perfect example— even if Paul George plays to his usual level, we’d probably still be a lottery team because the guy we built around either isn’t showing up or we have no idea when he will.

We can’t play fast or run a non-Embiid scheme because he’d just throw tantrums on the court.

I was thinking last night how embarrassing it would be if we landed Cooper Flagg and still couldn’t make it past the second round—which, honestly, feels like a very real possibility.

Collars ran through the war chest of picks and cap space asap. traded two firsts for Fultz. He was desperate to prove himself asap

They absolutely wasted the resources.

You have this weird revisionist history man

[76ciology]

I don’t get this whole “we wasted all of Hinkie’s resources” argument.

What resources? Most of the guys we drafted turned out to be busts or role players. The Lakers pick we all fantasized about ended up being a dud.

And despite that, we’ve still had one of the most talented teams almost every season.

How much more talent do you need to build around Embiid? This season is the perfect example— even if Paul George plays to his usual level, we’d probably still be a lottery team because the guy we built around either isn’t showing up or we have no idea when he will.

We can’t play fast or run a non-Embiid scheme because he’d just throw tantrums on the court.

I was thinking last night how embarrassing it would be if we landed Cooper Flagg and still couldn’t make it past the second round—which, honestly, feels like a very real possibility.

Collars ran through the war chest of picks and cap space asap. traded two firsts for Fultz. He was desperate to prove himself asap

They absolutely wasted the resources.

You have this weird revisionist history man

Well, you can still grade the Fultz trade

https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=26&t=1577750&hilit=Fultz

Spoiler:

To add, the biggest mistake was wasting Ben Simmons at his peak when it was clearly not working, and he was becoming a distraction—even before his family issues, which, for some reason, never get talked about but definitely seemed to affect him mentally. The Spurs wanted Ben for Kawhi—we should have pulled the trigger. Pair Kawhi with Jimmy, then choose Jimmy over Ben.

Nevertheless, Embiid can make a case as one of the superstars who has had the most talent around him throughout his career. But he’s so damn hard to build around that you need multiple stars just to compensate for his availability issues. And looking back over the last 5–10 years, aside from Kawhi, I’m not sure who else we realistically could have traded for along the way.

[Negrodamus]

I don’t get this whole “we wasted all of Hinkie’s resources” argument.

What resources? Most of the guys we drafted turned out to be busts or role players. The Lakers pick we all fantasized about ended up being a dud.

And despite that, we’ve still had one of the most talented teams almost every season.

How much more talent do you need to build around Embiid? This season is the perfect example— even if Paul George plays to his usual level, we’d probably still be a lottery team because the guy we built around either isn’t showing up or we have no idea when he will.

We can’t play fast or run a non-Embiid scheme because he’d just throw tantrums on the court.

I was thinking last night how embarrassing it would be if we landed Cooper Flagg and still couldn’t make it past the second round—which, honestly, feels like a very real possibility.

Collars ran through the war chest of picks and cap space asap. traded two firsts for Fultz. He was desperate to prove himself asap

They absolutely wasted the resources.

You have this weird revisionist history man

Well, you can still grade the Fultz trade

https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=26&t=1577750&hilit=Fultz

Remember when I said I'd rather trade #3 for D'Angelo Russell than move up to get Fultz? I'm standing by that.

Boy of all my quotes, this is certainly one of them. Technically not incorrect, but a real Jigsaw type scenario there.

[76ciology]

Collars ran through the war chest of picks and cap space asap. traded two firsts for Fultz. He was desperate to prove himself asap

They absolutely wasted the resources.

You have this weird revisionist history man

Well, you can still grade the Fultz trade

https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=26&t=1577750&hilit=Fultz

Remember when I said I'd rather trade #3 for D'Angelo Russell than move up to get Fultz? I'm standing by that.

Boy of all my quotes, this is certainly one of them. Technically not incorrect, but a real Jigsaw type scenario there.

Unless you had inside info on Fultz’s shoulder, nobody saw it coming.

If Fultz had stayed healthy, there’s no way you pass on him. He was still one of the best guard prospects in the modern NBA—a three-level scorer, versatile defender, and solid playmaker. He checks out on both eyetest and the numbers. I’d say in 10 simulations, you’d be right 10 times out of 10.

He’s still in the league despite a busted shoulder. That says a lot.

He was the consensus number 1 pick in all of those mock drafts, as far as i can remember.



https://www.theringer.com/2016/12/02/college-basketball/washington-markelle-fultz-2017-nba-draft-bc5913d07fc2

[Stanford]

Unless you had inside info on Fultz’s shoulder, nobody saw it coming.

I can name one guy who did, if we're playing that game.

[Negrodamus]

Well, you can still grade the Fultz trade

https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=26&t=1577750&hilit=Fultz

Remember when I said I'd rather trade #3 for D'Angelo Russell than move up to get Fultz? I'm standing by that.

Boy of all my quotes, this is certainly one of them. Technically not incorrect, but a real Jigsaw type scenario there.

Unless you had inside info on Fultz’s shoulder, nobody saw it coming.

If Fultz had stayed healthy, there’s no way you pass on him. He was still one of the best guard prospects in the modern NBA—a three-level scorer, versatile defender, and solid playmaker. He checks out on both eyetest and the numbers. I’d say in 10 simulations, you’d be right 10 times out of 10.

He’s still in the league despite a busted shoulder. That says a lot.

He was the consensus number 1 pick in all of those mock drafts, as far as i can remember.

I still think he attempted to change his shot because it wasn’t sustainable due to being a 65% FT shooter and that contributed to him getting hurt. Him being a 65% FT shooter, along with being on a big time losing team and being a lazy defender, he just wasn’t a unanimous #1 pick in my mind. I want my top pick to have nearly no flaws. If I’m trading up to #1, then they better be near flawless. There were a ton of red flags with Markelle which is why Tatum was obviously the top pick to me.

[Zumramania]

Sometimes just one good pick is enough...less can be more. If we pick well, this years' pick could prove to be more valuable than all the picks we collected during the Process era, besides the 3rd pick that turned into Embiid.

[Negrodamus]

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This team sucks to follow.

[Arsenal]

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This team sucks to follow.

Jesus I hope this is just a smokescreen to get that snake Silver off our back.

Imagine chasing the false hope of the play-in after this garbage season.