2025 Regular Season Thread Vol. 8

[carnageta]

Riles is an old school type of guy. The stuff that he does was the way of success back when he was a young adult. Times have changed and he too has changed along with it and has adjusted (more than adequately). He definitely isn't perfect (no GM / coach is) but he is a winner and his methods / ways have proven time and time again that they lead to success on the court. Sometimes these methods may be a bit too extreme for players, but then again it isn't easy finding the right balance between 'pushing them too hard' vs. 'not pushing them enough'.


All in all, this whole 'cookies' talk is just chit chatter on a podcast (literally) to tell a unique story from a unique perspective - that's what podcasts are about. If you seriously think this was the reason LeBron left, you might as well just be a NPC from GTA5.

[MettaWorldPanda]

As things currently stand with our pick situation we will have GSW's 2025 pick that lands around 17-20, 2026(own Stepien), 2027(Lottery protected 1-14(Pick rolls over to 2028 unprotected if not conveyed),2028(Blocked by Stepien and possible not conveying in 2027), 2029(Pick is owned but can't be traded free and clear due to Hornets ? in 2028, Pick can be traded with roll over to 2030 stipulation) 2030(Pick owned free and clear), 2031(pick owned free and clear), 2032(Pick owned and newly open year pick)

[MettaWorldPanda]

Traded • Terry Rozier to Heat for • Kyle Lowry • first round pick (lottery protected in 2027, unprotected in 2028) (?-?) on 2024-01-23

This is the same exact scenario we are currently dealing with OKC. 2028 pick will remain in limbo unless we make the lottery this year then 2026 and 2028 have full clarity of going out unprotected which is not really a good thing. 2025(selected pick GSW, 2029(protected with roll over to unprotected 2030) and 2032 are the true raw tradeable picks we currently have going into next year.

[ZoStrong]

Riles is an old school type of guy. The stuff that he does was the way of success back when he was a young adult. Times have changed and he too has changed along with it and has adjusted (more than adequately). He definitely isn't perfect (no GM / coach is) but he is a winner and his methods / ways have proven time and time again that they lead to success on the court. Sometimes these methods may be a bit too extreme for players, but then again it isn't easy finding the right balance between 'pushing them too hard' vs. 'not pushing them enough'.


All in all, this whole 'cookies' talk is just chit chatter on a podcast (literally) to tell a unique story from a unique perspective - that's what podcasts are about. If you seriously think this was the reason LeBron left, you might as well just be a NPC from GTA5.

You should always go by the track record. No one, no method/system is perfect. Warren Buffett makes wrong stock picks too.

Tough, drill sergeant type coaches usually have shelf life. Players get tired of the tough demands and all the rules. Yup, many players ran away or ran Riley off but lots of them end up appreciating the years they had w him. It's like u hate tough parenting, but you grow up and appreciate the discipline you developed under the tough love.

Some fans are microanalyzing the micromanaging, lol

[SA37]

This is what id give up for Durant

Andrew Wiggins
JJJ
Duncan Robinson


We trade our long term contract in wiggins, and we take in a year rental of durants expiring deal.

There will be several teams vying for Durant's services, so Miami will have at least add a 1st and a swap to that just to not get hung up on.

Aside from Miami, I assume Houston, New York, Orlando, Dallas, Memphis, Cleveland, Denver, and San Antonio will all make offers with plenty of young players and draft assets on offer.

[MettaWorldPanda]

This is what id give up for Durant

Andrew Wiggins
JJJ
Duncan Robinson


We trade our long term contract in wiggins, and we take in a year rental of durants expiring deal.

There will be several teams vying for Durant's services, so Miami will have at least add a 1st and a swap to that just to not get hung up on.

Aside from Miami, I assume Houston, New York, Orlando, Dallas, Memphis, Cleveland, Denver, and San Antonio will all make offers with plenty of young players and draft assets on offer.

Also in no real world scenario does Durant play as a rental next year lol. He's going to a team that's fully prepared to max him out via the Butler deal. This is a copy cat league and Durant will be making sure he's not playing second fiddle to Butler contract wise at the same age.

[greg4012]

4. Kel’el Ware, Miami Heat

Season stats: 8.6 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 1 bpg
Last Ladder: No. 5
Draft pick: No. 15

His counting stats have moved him up the rungs (9.6 ppg, 9.6 rpg, 1.2 bpg since the last Ladder). But a nice breakdown of Ware’s 15 starts revealed some defensive flaws, including this: Miami’s defensive rating (117.9) when Ware is on the floor without Bam Adebayo would rank 27th of 30. Better news: When both are out there, it’s 106.1, which would rank second.

https://www.nba.com/news/kia-rookie-ladder-february-26-2025-edition

[greg4012]

https://allucanheat.com/10-stats-heat-rookie-kel-el-ware-first-15-games-starter

Checking in on Kel’el Ware now that the Miami Heat rookie has started the last 15 games. It’s a decent sample size from which to draw some statistical data.

Let’s jump in with 10 stats to describe Ware’s first 15 games as a starter.

>Opponents are shooting 2.5% better than their average within 6 feet of the basket when Kel’el Ware is the closest defender, according to NBA.com’s database. Opponents are shooting 0.5% better within 10 feet.

>Before you ask, those marks haven’t been better since Ware entered the starting lineup. Opponents are shooting 4.4% better than their average within 6 feet and 2.1% better than their average within 10 feet of the basket when Ware is the closest defender in the 15 games since coach Erik Spoelstra turned to a two-big lineup.

>That two-big lineup is working, with the Heat posting a defensive rating of 106.1 when Bam Adebayo and Ware share the court. That would rank second in the NBA, behind only the Oklahoma City Thunder.

>But Ware’s defensive struggles – common for a rookie center – are highlighted when Adebayo goes to the bench. The Heat have a DRTG of 117.9 when Ware is on the court without Adebayo, a mark that would rank 27th in the league this season.

>As much as Adebayo supports Ware, Ware also supports Adebayo. The Heat’s DRTG slips to 112.4 (which would rank a ho-hum 12th) in the minutes when Adebayo is on the court without Ware.

>It’s a different story on offense, where the Heat are averaging just 110.1 points per 100 possessions with Ware and Adebayo on the court – a mark just below their season rating of 112.1.

>Ware ranks in the 71st percentile as a pick-and-roll roll man and averages 1.20 points per possession when finishing the pick-and-roll, according to Synergy data. Those are good marks, but you’d like to see the Heat find him for more than 1.8 attempts per game.

>Ware is also shooting 70.3% on 1.6 cuts per game, per Synergy, which can be logged in similar situations to pick-and-rolls.
Ware needs to be more physical on the offensive glass. He’s averaging 1 putback attempt per game and converting those bunnies at a 45% clip, ranking in just the 20th percentile.

>Among 7-footers, Ware ranks 14th in 3-point attempts per game. He is shooting 32.9% on 1.9 3-point attempts per game, marks matched by only Victor Wembanyama, Lauri Markkanen, Kristaps Porzingis, Brook Lopez, Karl-Anthony Towns, Sant Aldama, Quentin Post, Chet Holmgren and Jay Huff.

[MettaWorldPanda]

https://allucanheat.com/10-stats-heat-rookie-kel-el-ware-first-15-games-starter

Checking in on Kel’el Ware now that the Miami Heat rookie has started the last 15 games. It’s a decent sample size from which to draw some statistical data.

Let’s jump in with 10 stats to describe Ware’s first 15 games as a starter.

>Opponents are shooting 2.5% better than their average within 6 feet of the basket when Kel’el Ware is the closest defender, according to NBA.com’s database. Opponents are shooting 0.5% better within 10 feet.

>Before you ask, those marks haven’t been better since Ware entered the starting lineup. Opponents are shooting 4.4% better than their average within 6 feet and 2.1% better than their average within 10 feet of the basket when Ware is the closest defender in the 15 games since coach Erik Spoelstra turned to a two-big lineup.

>That two-big lineup is working, with the Heat posting a defensive rating of 106.1 when Bam Adebayo and Ware share the court. That would rank second in the NBA, behind only the Oklahoma City Thunder.

>But Ware’s defensive struggles – common for a rookie center – are highlighted when Adebayo goes to the bench. The Heat have a DRTG of 117.9 when Ware is on the court without Adebayo, a mark that would rank 27th in the league this season.

>As much as Adebayo supports Ware, Ware also supports Adebayo. The Heat’s DRTG slips to 112.4 (which would rank a ho-hum 12th) in the minutes when Adebayo is on the court without Ware.

>It’s a different story on offense, where the Heat are averaging just 110.1 points per 100 possessions with Ware and Adebayo on the court – a mark just below their season rating of 112.1.

>Ware ranks in the 71st percentile as a pick-and-roll roll man and averages 1.20 points per possession when finishing the pick-and-roll, according to Synergy data. Those are good marks, but you’d like to see the Heat find him for more than 1.8 attempts per game.

>Ware is also shooting 70.3% on 1.6 cuts per game, per Synergy, which can be logged in similar situations to pick-and-rolls.
Ware needs to be more physical on the offensive glass. He’s averaging 1 putback attempt per game and converting those bunnies at a 45% clip, ranking in just the 20th percentile.

>Among 7-footers, Ware ranks 14th in 3-point attempts per game. He is shooting 32.9% on 1.9 3-point attempts per game, marks matched by only Victor Wembanyama, Lauri Markkanen, Kristaps Porzingis, Brook Lopez, Karl-Anthony Towns, Sant Aldama, Quentin Post, Chet Holmgren and Jay Huff.

Curious how Highsmith's integration into the lineup with Ware will change the defensive numbers. When Bam comes off the floor Ware has been playing a bunch of minutes with Jovic and Duncan. Wonder if it changes for the better with more Highsmith and Wiggins covering the wings.

[SA37]

This is what id give up for Durant

Andrew Wiggins
JJJ
Duncan Robinson


We trade our long term contract in wiggins, and we take in a year rental of durants expiring deal.

There will be several teams vying for Durant's services, so Miami will have at least add a 1st and a swap to that just to not get hung up on.

Aside from Miami, I assume Houston, New York, Orlando, Dallas, Memphis, Cleveland, Denver, and San Antonio will all make offers with plenty of young players and draft assets on offer.

Also in no real world scenario does Durant play as a rental next year lol. He's going to a team that's fully prepared to max him out via the Butler deal. This is a copy cat league and Durant will be making sure he's not playing second fiddle to Butler contract wise at the same age.

I don't think Riley would hesitate to give Durant an extension for the max. Everything seems to indicate Durant likely has 2 all-NBA years left in the tank.

[greg4012]

https://allucanheat.com/10-stats-heat-rookie-kel-el-ware-first-15-games-starter

Checking in on Kel’el Ware now that the Miami Heat rookie has started the last 15 games. It’s a decent sample size from which to draw some statistical data.

Let’s jump in with 10 stats to describe Ware’s first 15 games as a starter.

>Opponents are shooting 2.5% better than their average within 6 feet of the basket when Kel’el Ware is the closest defender, according to NBA.com’s database. Opponents are shooting 0.5% better within 10 feet.

>Before you ask, those marks haven’t been better since Ware entered the starting lineup. Opponents are shooting 4.4% better than their average within 6 feet and 2.1% better than their average within 10 feet of the basket when Ware is the closest defender in the 15 games since coach Erik Spoelstra turned to a two-big lineup.

>That two-big lineup is working, with the Heat posting a defensive rating of 106.1 when Bam Adebayo and Ware share the court. That would rank second in the NBA, behind only the Oklahoma City Thunder.

>But Ware’s defensive struggles – common for a rookie center – are highlighted when Adebayo goes to the bench. The Heat have a DRTG of 117.9 when Ware is on the court without Adebayo, a mark that would rank 27th in the league this season.

>As much as Adebayo supports Ware, Ware also supports Adebayo. The Heat’s DRTG slips to 112.4 (which would rank a ho-hum 12th) in the minutes when Adebayo is on the court without Ware.

>It’s a different story on offense, where the Heat are averaging just 110.1 points per 100 possessions with Ware and Adebayo on the court – a mark just below their season rating of 112.1.

>Ware ranks in the 71st percentile as a pick-and-roll roll man and averages 1.20 points per possession when finishing the pick-and-roll, according to Synergy data. Those are good marks, but you’d like to see the Heat find him for more than 1.8 attempts per game.

>Ware is also shooting 70.3% on 1.6 cuts per game, per Synergy, which can be logged in similar situations to pick-and-rolls.
Ware needs to be more physical on the offensive glass. He’s averaging 1 putback attempt per game and converting those bunnies at a 45% clip, ranking in just the 20th percentile.

>Among 7-footers, Ware ranks 14th in 3-point attempts per game. He is shooting 32.9% on 1.9 3-point attempts per game, marks matched by only Victor Wembanyama, Lauri Markkanen, Kristaps Porzingis, Brook Lopez, Karl-Anthony Towns, Sant Aldama, Quentin Post, Chet Holmgren and Jay Huff.

Curious how Highsmith's integration into the lineup with Ware will change the defensive numbers. When Bam comes off the floor Ware has been playing a bunch of minutes with Jovic and Duncan. Wonder if it changes for the better with more Highsmith and Wiggins covering the wings.

It will def impact the numbers. Another impact defender logging more minutes in various lineups will juice them. Hopefully Ware makes some improvements with his defensive awareness too and some of the nuances of the game start slowing down for him. I expect more of that to really set in thru the offseason tho.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Davion is averaging 10-2-4 shooting 46% from 3 on 4 attempts providing elite defense and most specifically screen navigation on ball since he’s been in Miami. 68TS%.

Twix is in shambles

[twix2500]

Davion is averaging 10-2-4 shooting 46% from 3 on 4 attempts providing elite defense and most specifically screen navigation on ball since he’s been in Miami. 68TS%.

Twix is in shambles

Huh why would i be in shambles? I am proud of him stepping up a few games, a nba player should be able to score when left wide open all game. I want him to prove he is a nba player.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Davion is averaging 10-2-4 shooting 46% from 3 on 4 attempts providing elite defense and most specifically screen navigation on ball since he’s been in Miami. 68TS%.

Twix is in shambles

Huh why would i be in shambles?

Just messing with you, you’ve been very critical of Mitchell since he got here

[twix2500]

Davion is averaging 10-2-4 shooting 46% from 3 on 4 attempts providing elite defense and most specifically screen navigation on ball since he’s been in Miami. 68TS%.

Twix is in shambles

Huh why would i be in shambles?

Just messing with you, you’ve been very critical of Mitchell since he got here

I am critical because I want him to be successfull. He is getting the opportunity, so he needs to take advantage of it as much as possible.

[dshearn]

Curious how Highsmith's integration into the lineup with Ware will change the defensive numbers. When Bam comes off the floor Ware has been playing a bunch of minutes with Jovic and Duncan. Wonder if it changes for the better with more Highsmith and Wiggins covering the wings.

I don't think the numbers tell us much about the future, and even the numbers are flawed. It was plain as day that early on with the Bam and Ware combo, Ware was a deterrent...it took teams a few games to realize they could still go inside.

Ware, Bam and some stud defensive coach need to circle bases this summer and run tons of defensive drills.

There is a hell of a bright future if Ware can take the next step on defense. Not only does that let Bam do what Bam wants to do on defense (be a wing type defender that chases small dudes around all game), but also lets the Heat play dudes like Duncan.


It will be interesting to see how the salary shakes out for dudes like Mitchell, Anderson, and Highsmith. I love all three of those dudes. I hope the team either locks them up cheap, or can at least package them for a game changer.

On a side note, it really does make me look back with appreciation for that brief period we got peak Caleb, and Dipo on ball defense.I love them dudes that have the 110% mentality.

[Kobewade11]

This is what id give up for Durant

Andrew Wiggins
JJJ
Duncan Robinson


We trade our long term contract in wiggins, and we take in a year rental of durants expiring deal.

I've give up Jaime, Niko, Duncan, Rozier (expiring - PHX can move him again at ASB), a 2025 1st, future 2nd if we have available.

That's the most I would do. If it isn't enough I'd move on and wouldn't feel bad about it.

[oreon]

This is what id give up for Durant

Andrew Wiggins
JJJ
Duncan Robinson


We trade our long term contract in wiggins, and we take in a year rental of durants expiring deal.

I've give up Jaime, Niko, Duncan, Rozier (expiring - PHX can move him again at ASB), a 2025 1st, future 2nd if we have available.

That's the most I would do. If it isn't enough I'd move on and wouldn't feel bad about it.

Its a waste of assets. Then when the next guy in his prime becomes available we will have no shot to compete. Heat have to realize where they are. They are not a KD away from contending. With KD its a 2 year window. We need someone who gives a longer window to give us time to build the team. Look at suns, KD right now isn't the guy that can elevate a really bad team to a contender. He needs to be in a team thats close. We are not close. Unless its an all nba guy in their prime, Miami gotta be patient, stock up on assets and sell high on guys like Wiggins when you have a chance to get more assets.

[Kobewade11]

Its a waste of assets. Then when the next guy in his prime becomes available we will have no shot to compete. Heat have to realize where they are. They are not a KD away from contending. With KD its a 2 year window. We need someone who gives a longer window to give us time to build the team. Look at suns, KD right now isn't the guy that can elevate a really bad team to a contender. He needs to be in a team thats close. We are not close. Unless its an all nba guy in their prime, Miami gotta be patient, stock up on assets and sell high on guys like Wiggins when you have a chance to get more assets.

Disagree. I'm not using Phoenix as a case study for anything because they just have bad infrastructure. 2 fluke Finals runs (I say that in jest) in 30 years, that's their legacy. We don't have a 1A scorer, if one can be had you have to at least try to get him and worry about the rest later.

Unless you have a generational player, most teams have a 3-4 year window to make a run. Bam is walking down 30, Herro figures to be entering his prime in the next year or two, imo we don't need to be thinking about a "long window" we need to get who is available that can help win within the next 3 years. At some point you just have to cash in, can't always be worried about who the next guy might be..there's always going to be somebody.

[SA37]

Its a waste of assets. Then when the next guy in his prime becomes available we will have no shot to compete. Heat have to realize where they are. They are not a KD away from contending. With KD its a 2 year window. We need someone who gives a longer window to give us time to build the team. Look at suns, KD right now isn't the guy that can elevate a really bad team to a contender. He needs to be in a team thats close. We are not close. Unless its an all nba guy in their prime, Miami gotta be patient, stock up on assets and sell high on guys like Wiggins when you have a chance to get more assets.

Disagree. I'm not using Phoenix as a case study for anything because they just have bad infrastructure. 2 fluke Finals runs (I say that in jest) in 30 years, that's their legacy. We don't have a 1A scorer, if one can be had you have to at least try to get him and worry about the rest later.

Unless you have a generational player, most teams have a 3-4 year window to make a run. Bam is walking down 30, Herro figures to be entering his prime in the next year or two, imo we don't need to be thinking about a "long window" we need to get who is available that can help win within the next 3 years. At some point you just have to cash in, can't always be worried about who the next guy might be..there's always going to be somebody.

Yeah, if Durant has 2 years of prime play left, a 3rd year at an all-star-ish level is not out of the question. If his production was anywhere near LeBron levels getting towards 40, he'd fit a 2-3 window for Miami to try to make a run.

My guess is Miami would make anyone available not named Herro or Bam, and Miami would be willing to give up picks/swaps up until roughly the end of the decade. The limit would be the point where Miami felt it wasn't gutting its roster to get Durant.

So I could see one of two packages in play:

1: Wiggins, Rozier, JJJ, a 1st and 2 swaps

2: Rozier, Robinson, JJJ, Jovic OR Ware, and a 1st