2024-25 NBA Rookie Discussion Thread (Pt. 3)

[RRR3]

People just find it funny you’re having constant meltdowns about a rookie. Rookies generally aren’t good, for rookie standards he’s been a nice player. You raging about it doesn’t change that. No one is saying he’s gonna be a star.

[Special_Puppy]

Castle (Clear ROTY Favorite) vs Edey (the disappointment):

Castle (Strong and Independent):
DPM: -2.11
Estimated EPM: -0.3
Actual EPM: -1.3
LEBRON: -1.75
BPM: -4.3
X-RAPM: -0.9

Edey (Broke Ass):
DPM: -0.5
Estimated EPM: +1.0
Actual EPM: +0.4
LEBRON: +0.28
BPM: -0.2
X-RAPM: +0.9

[jasonxxx102]

People just find it funny you’re having constant meltdowns about a rookie. Rookies generally aren’t good, for rookie standards he’s been a nice player. You raging about it doesn’t change that. No one is saying he’s gonna be a star.

you again refuse to address any of the points I've laid out about his on-court production.

It's ok, die on this hill

[RRR3]

Castle (Clear ROTY Favorite) vs Edey (the disappointment):

Castle (Strong and Independent):
DPM: -2.11
Estimated EPM: -0.3
Actual EPM: -1.3
LEBRON: -1.75
BPM: -4.3
X-RAPM: -0.9

Edey (Broke Ass):
DPM: -0.5
Estimated EPM: +1.0
Actual EPM: +0.4
LEBRON: +0.28
BPM: -0.2
X-RAPM: +0.9

He’s on a good team so his stats don’t count. That’s honestly what that guy is trying to tell us

[jasonxxx102]

You should have to take a class on how AIO metrics work before being allowed to use them in any conversation

it's amazing that people choose to die on hills about concepts they don't even understand

[Special_Puppy]

You should have to take a class on how AIO metrics work before being allowed to use them in any conversation

it's amazing that people choose to die on hills about concepts they don't even understand

Its just a ridge Regression on Long Term RAPM Samples to create a prior. Then you just layer RAPM on top of that

[RRR3]

I like Edey but if I had to guess he’s probably going to have a career similar to Steven Adams in terms of on court production and impact, although if he keeps developing his 3 he might be able to be similar to Brook Lopez. So a solid starter who has limitations that necessitate him not being played in certain moments. So for a guy like that to have an obsessed hater is just funny af to me because imagine someone spending their obsessively hating on Ivica Zubac.

[RRR3]

You should have to take a class on how AIO metrics work before being allowed to use them in any conversation

it's amazing that people choose to die on hills about concepts they don't even understand

Yeah being on a good team doesn’t mean your metrics are automatically good. Plenty of guys on good teams have bad LEBRON scores and most oft them aren’t rookies. I think it’s you who need a lesson here. Again you act like saying Edey is having a nice year for a rookie and looks like he’ll be a decent role player is some outrageous statement. “But but I hate him and said he’s a bust” isn’t an argument.

Also you literally previously INSISTED you weren’t obsessed with Edey but here you are bringing him up yet again.

[wemby]

No extraordinary leap is needed to surpass a guy averaging 12ppg on 41/28/72 shooting splits. I love Castle, love his playmaking and defense, but this race is pretty open to anyone making a campaign.

Any rookie currently averaging over 20mpg that has played at least 50 games is still in this. To be fair that's only 7 rookies, lol. Stephon Castle is more of a default place holder than a front runner. If someone like Rissacher got hot, or Missi started piling up numbers in a way that caught people's attention, they'd be right in this. Edey would probably just need a few weeks of Memphis upping his minutes to get into the driver's seat of this race.

This isn't Castle hate. He's probably my favorite rookie. I just don't think it's realistic to imagine there's any real substantial distance in this rookie race.

Sure, but you missed my point, which was more about the top group contending for ROY than Castle being ahead of the pack. TBH, I don't really care about ROY, only about the long term outlook as a winning player, and considering what we've seen there's no one else from this class I'd rather have, so I'm pretty comfortable with him.

[cupcakesnake]

No extraordinary leap is needed to surpass a guy averaging 12ppg on 41/28/72 shooting splits. I love Castle, love his playmaking and defense, but this race is pretty open to anyone making a campaign.

Any rookie currently averaging over 20mpg that has played at least 50 games is still in this. To be fair that's only 7 rookies, lol. Stephon Castle is more of a default place holder than a front runner. If someone like Rissacher got hot, or Missi started piling up numbers in a way that caught people's attention, they'd be right in this. Edey would probably just need a few weeks of Memphis upping his minutes to get into the driver's seat of this race.

This isn't Castle hate. He's probably my favorite rookie. I just don't think it's realistic to imagine there's any real substantial distance in this rookie race.

Sure, but you missed my point, which was more about the top group contending for ROY than Castle being ahead of the pack. TBH, I don't really care about ROY, only about the long term outlook as a winning player, and considering what we've seen there's no one else from this class I'd rather have, so I'm pretty comfortable with him.

No disagreements here. I worry about some of Castle's scoring tools (the shooting obviously, and the drives need to be a lot more efficient), but in general I just love watching him play. Have since college. Crazy athlete, crazy motor, really fun playmaking skills.

I also don't really care about ROY, especially when it becomes like 6th man (a PPG award). It's often: which rookie is producing the most raw stats. No fanbase should want their high lottery pick to be the next Michael Carter-Williams. You want the rookie year to be developmental towards a long, prosperous career.

[cupcakesnake]

He's 39th percentile in rim differential, 11th percentile in defensive shot quality influence, he offers 0 playmaking or passing skill, he turns the ball over too much for his usage, and can't score except for lobs and putbacks. He will get passed the ball on the block, take 1 dribble and pass it back out.

The only thing you can hide behind is his low minutes and low offensive involvement. You never considered that maybe there's a reason for that?

Where are you getting these numbers?
craftednba has his rim differential at -3.9% (71st percentile), while nbarapm has it at -3.4% (similar percentile)
His overall fg% differential is in the 56% percentile via nbarapm, while thinking basketball has it in the 67th percentile. I'm unfamiliar (but curious) with defensive shot quality influence, could you point me to where you find that?

I get that you're pretty committed to your take about Edey being bad, and are already kind of fighting with people about this, so I don't want to push too hard on it.

I'm still Edey-curious. His role in the long term is as a pick & roll finisher and offensive rebounder. I think Edey-optimists pictured him running pick & roll with Ja Morant, but then Taylor Jenkins came in with a strange and innovative offense that was less about screening. In this offense, Edey isn't featured a ton, but I don't think that's an indication of his long term viability in the league. His defense has been way better than everyone worried about. He still has defensive weaknesses, but they're just not as pronounced as anyone who worried he was a total stiff thought they would be.

He's low minute because Memphis is a contender, and Edey is a rookie with vets they like to play. JJJ's driving game has been a massive part of Memphis' offense, so they like to play him at center half the time to force tough adjustments from their opponent. Aladama is kind of the opposite of Edey (a playmaker who can shoot a bit). Memphis hasn't been shy about playing him with either of those guys though, though it's understandable why they like JJJ at the 5 next to Aldama most for this style of offense. Edey isn't a passer or a shooter, so he's not the dream fit here.

There's nothing substantial to the idea that Edey is only thriving statistically due to playing on a good team with the starters. Edey+bench lineups have been extremely solid, and catch-all metrics that try to isolate for teammate quality still like Edey too. I'm fine with you not believing those numbers on just a one year sample, but I don't think it's the time for strong conviction on this subject in either direction.

All-in-all, Edey has had a solid, yet unspectacular rookie season. This career could still go north or south. He's already cleared the biggest concerns about his defense, but he hasn't quite delivered on the promise of his offense either.

[jasonxxx102]

He's 39th percentile in rim differential, 11th percentile in defensive shot quality influence, he offers 0 playmaking or passing skill, he turns the ball over too much for his usage, and can't score except for lobs and putbacks. He will get passed the ball on the block, take 1 dribble and pass it back out.

The only thing you can hide behind is his low minutes and low offensive involvement. You never considered that maybe there's a reason for that?

Where are you getting these numbers?
craftednba has his rim differential at -3.9% (71st percentile), while nbarapm has it at -3.4% (similar percentile)
His overall fg% differential is in the 56% percentile via nbarapm, while thinking basketball has it in the 67th percentile. I'm unfamiliar (but curious) with defensive shot quality influence, could you point me to where you find that?

I get that you're pretty committed to your take about Edey being bad, and are already kind of fighting with people about this, so I don't want to push too hard on it.

I'm still Edey-curious. His role in the long term is as a pick & roll finisher and offensive rebounder. I think Edey-optimists pictured him running pick & roll with Ja Morant, but then Taylor Jenkins came in with a strange and innovative offense that was less about screening. In this offense, Edey isn't featured a ton, but I don't think that's an indication of his long term viability in the league. His defense has been way better than everyone worried about. He still has defensive weaknesses, but they're just not as pronounced as anyone who worried he was a total stiff thought they would be.

He's low minute because Memphis is a contender, and Edey is a rookie with vets they like to play. JJJ's driving game has been a massive part of Memphis' offense, so they like to play him at center half the time to force tough adjustments from their opponent. Aladama is kind of the opposite of Edey (a playmaker who can shoot a bit). Memphis hasn't been shy about playing him with either of those guys though, though it's understandable why they like JJJ at the 5 next to Aldama most for this style of offense. Edey isn't a passer or a shooter, so he's not the dream fit here.

There's nothing substantial to the idea that Edey is only thriving statistically due to playing on a good team with the starters. Edey+bench lineups have been extremely solid, and catch-all metrics that try to isolate for teammate quality still like Edey too. I'm fine with you not believing those numbers on just a one year sample, but I don't think it's the time for strong conviction on this subject in either direction.

All-in-all, Edey has had a solid, yet unspectacular rookie season. This career could still go north or south. He's already cleared the biggest concerns about his defense, but he hasn't quite delivered on the promise of his offense either.

From the site you quoted



People need to acknowledge why certain metrics are higher for certain types of players.

Advanced metrics are going to favor the lower volume high efficiency guys (bigs), on good teams, so him being slightly positive doesn't mean anything.

I just don't accept the idea that his defense has somehow been OK. It has been bad, if you want to break down film I'm happy to do so. He doesn't play because he can't guard anyone. Opposing teams just put him in PnR every other possession. The only thing he can do is play deep drop because he can't move with anyone faster than a plodding big.

Any time there's a switch, doesn't matter who it is they take Edey off the dribble right away.

He will be unplayable in the playoffs and just go back and look he very rarely plays in close games. He's 11th on the grizzlies in total clutch minutes played this season and it's not because the grizzlies have a bunch of vets. It's because teams just expose him defensively late in games.

Grizzlies are 3-9 in games where Edey has gotten clutch minutes, and in those 14 total minutes he has played they are -21.

Is Zach Edey any better than Luke Kornet? He's a better offensive rebounder marginally, and there's really no other distinguishing differences between the players... other than Edey is a little bigger and they're forcing him minutes early in games because they just over drafted him.

I said before the draft and I still maintain that Edey is a 2nd round player. His absolute ceiling is a guy who can get some spot minutes in good matchups

[jasonxxx102]

If I am so wrong about Edey, it should be really simple to just pull the film and prove it

[RRR3]

Imagine having a season-long meltdown about a Steven Adams level player all because you can't admit you were wrong that he'd be Tacko Fall or Boban Marjanovic.

[jasonxxx102]

Imagine having a season-long meltdown about a Steven Adams level player all because you can't admit you were wrong that he'd be Tacko Fall or Boban Marjanovic.

You continually talk about me and refuse to talk about the actual player or address any of the basketball points.

That should tell you all you need to know about who's watching and who's not.

[RRR3]

Imagine having a season-long meltdown about a Steven Adams level player all because you can't admit you were wrong that he'd be Tacko Fall or Boban Marjanovic.

You continually talk about me and refuse to talk about the actual player or address any of the basketball points.

That should tell you all you need to know about who's watching and who's not.

You can't just spam the thread with irrational hatred for a rookie and then act outraged when people call out your trolling. If you had just said Edey was bad once it would be whatever but you won't shut up about it and it's deranged.

[Klomp]

Technically his rookie year, since he missed all of 2023-24 with an injury

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[Jamaaliver]

Spoiler:

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[Kurtz]

It takes centers longer than players at other positions to adjust to the NBA due in large part to all of the extra responsibilities they have on the defensive end. There's a reason why Wemby was the first center in about 20 years to win ROY. The fact that Edey is even getting 20 mpg on one of the top teams in the league is impressive. I was hoping that he'd get more opportunity on the offensive end, but Memphis has lots of mouths to feed on offense.

[brackdan70]

Taking a look at these roomies and no one really deserves ROY. I guess they were right when they said it was a really bad draft class. I don’t think we ever see an all star from this from this class.