Shams: BI extension (3 Years $120M) **Presser at 5:15pm** Link Pg. 24

[ForeverTFC]

ORL and us will be in "roughly" the same cap situation, but ORL also has a top 3 defence, a burgeoning and young star in Paolo, Franz seemingly taking that next step, and Suggs is an all defence player. All while having a younger and less experienced core, off the back of a 5th placed finish last year, a playoff birth, and a better record this year. Could they have a better cap situation? For sure. But they are in that situation while being a good team, with players that are young and under contract control. They actually made the playoffs.

We are going to be in a "similar" cap situation with an older more experienced team, and our success hinges on the performance of a historically constantly injured player who will be 28. Our expectation next year, is to do what ORL is doing this year, with significantly worse injury luck than we had.

They are further along in their rebuild, but theirs isn't reliant on a 28 year old who is oft injured. Their team has more room to grow than ours does currently. The upcoming draft will have a large impact on our future, but since none of us know where we will land in that draft, it's not something I'm going to throw into the equation.

As for more long tail prospects, can you give me more details? I'm assuming you mean like Mogbo etc. I just don't want to jump into that bit if I'm not sure I have all the info.

Sure, but the conversation was about finishing 5th next year, not today.

Let's first look at the core/starting level players:
Raptors - Scottie, IQ, Barrett, Ingram, Poeltl
Magic - Paolo, Franz, Suggs, KCP

You can argue who has the better starting point here, though I really don't think it's that far off. To be fair, I am lower on Paolo and Franz than consensus, though I'm also lower on Scottie than consensus. We also have more ways to re-shape this core as we can trade any of Barrett/IQ/Poeltl while they only have KCP as a real starting level player to move.

Let's then go into our current prospect pools - I define this as Rookie contract guys who are not firmly part of the core:
Raptors - Gradey, Walter, Ochai, Shead, Mogbo, Battle, Chomche
Magic - Da Silva, Black, Howard

Here, we have the advantage on both quntity as well as ceiling. I think it's pretty clear that our long tail young assets are just better.

Finally, let's look at our pick situation:
Next year: Raptors 1 lottery pick, Magic 2 non-lottery picks (their own and Denver)
After next year: Both teams have the same number of picks

I'd take our 1 lottery pick vs their 2 non-lottery picks as I'm sure you would as well. After that, it's a wash.

In terms of cap purposes, it's a wash starting the following season, meaning they won't do much with the advantage they'll have here next year as they need to preserve the slot for Paolo. Note that starting in the '26 season, Orlando will be paying more for their top 3 than we will be paying for ours, regardless of how that shakes out. The top end of our roster actually project cheaper.

So if next year, we outperform the Magic, I don't see how you can say that's not an accomplishment while saying the Magic have done a great job. Perhaps you forecast Paolo/Franz having a higher ceiling than Barnes/Ingram, but to me that's debatable. After that, we are younger and in better shape on any future looking dimension.

[ill-Will03]

I can’t wait to see the responses when we end up top 5 in the East next year. Cue the Masai got lucky excuses again lol

Is this meant to suggest that being 5th in the east is some major accomplishment? The Bucks are 5th with 25 of their 32 wins coming from the east, and 12 of those coming from the utterly pathetic SE division. This same 5th place team is 8-14 against .500+ teams, and is just beating up on a weak conference.

No one is going to be surprised if this team makes the playoffs next year, but why are we acting like that's a high bar to pass, or that it should be praised? Hell, even the Knicks who are 3rd with 38 wins had 21 of those come from the Atlantic and SE divisions, which are by far the 2 worst in the NBA.

No one is going to be surprised when we are the best of the worst, that's exactly what everyone is worried about. The pre-emptive victory lap you are taking, is just weird tbh.

Lol here we go so it starts already. Being 5th in the East will absolutely be an accomplishment considering where we are coming from. Those kind of jumps are not made every year and are pretty rare for a team to do regardless how trash the East is.

You already using excuses to discredit this is pretty weird tbh

[Duffman100]

I can’t wait to see the responses when we end up top 5 in the East next year. Cue the Masai got lucky excuses again lol

Is this meant to suggest that being 5th in the east is some major accomplishment? The Bucks are 5th with 25 of their 32 wins coming from the east, and 12 of those coming from the utterly pathetic SE division. This same 5th place team is 8-14 against .500+ teams, and is just beating up on a weak conference.

No one is going to be surprised if this team makes the playoffs next year, but why are we acting like that's a high bar to pass, or that it should be praised? Hell, even the Knicks who are 3rd with 38 wins had 21 of those come from the Atlantic and SE divisions, which are by far the 2 worst in the NBA.

No one is going to be surprised when we are the best of the worst, that's exactly what everyone is worried about. The pre-emptive victory lap you are taking, is just weird tbh.

Lol here we go so it starts already. Being 5th in the East will absolutely be an accomplishment considering where we are coming from. Those kind of jumps are not made every year and are pretty rare for a team to do regardless how trash the East is.

You already using excuses to discredit this is pretty weird tbh

So let's praise Detroit and Orlando, who are 7th and 6th in the East.

But if we're 5th in the East, its... nothing.

Yup.

[tsherkin]

But if we're 5th in the East, its... nothing.

Yup.

5th in the East would be a nice step forward. Then the question becomes how to build forward from there, which isn't a bad problem to have. 5th, matching up with 4th, leaves a reasonable chance to leave the first round most seasons, and that's both fun and exciting.

[ill-Will03]

And get this on top of that he says he’s not overly negative, you really can’t make this stuff up lol.

I gottta give it to you Scase you are one hard headed individual. No matter what anyone says or how many people disagree with you, you stand firm in your stance.

Not sure that’s a good thing lol.


Two things are for certain, Masai will make this team better for sure and you will not be happy, that’s a guarantee

[Duffman100]

But if we're 5th in the East, its... nothing.

Yup.

5th in the East would be a nice step forward. Then the question becomes how to build forward from there, which isn't a bad problem to have. 5th, matching up with 4th, leaves a reasonable chance to leave the first round most seasons, and that's both fun and exciting.

Because then we're back in the early Lowry/Derozan days but with a bit more young depth as a starting point.

[tsherkin]

Because then we're back in the early Lowry/Derozan days but with a bit more young depth as a starting point.

Yep. And on the heels of a rebuild, that's not a bad place to be if we can sustain it.

[youngRAPZ]

Ugh. Pierce is one of those guys who I wish would just go quietly into that good night already, lol.

Pierce saying he doesnt think they make the play in next year is just...insert word here you know lol.

If this team misses the play in next year, holy hell even the team compete folks will be rioting.

I was confused as well. I think he was talking about this season.

He literally said I don’t know if they’re going to make the playoffs “this year” or the play in. Scase just making stuff up again.


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[tsherkin]

He literally said I don’t know if they’re going to make the playoffs or play in “this year”

That is what I heard as well. Which was still sort of a daft statement. Pierce... sounds high most of the time, and rarely says anything of real substance.

[youngRAPZ]

He literally said I don’t know if they’re going to make the playoffs or play in “this year”

That is what I heard as well. Which was still sort of a daft statement. Pierce... sounds high most of the time, and rarely says anything of real substance.

I don’t know if he didn’t say anything of substance. I think both he and KG said basically what a lot of people on this board have been saying. BI appeared to have checked out in NO and a change of scenery could be good for him. Pierce also mentioned with he and Scotty we could be really good as the trade was made for the future not this season hence why he said he don’t think we’ll make it this year.


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[tsherkin]

I don’t know if he didn’t say anything of substance. I think both he and KG said basically what a lot of people on this board have been saying. BI appeared to have checked out in NO and a change of scenery could be good for him. Pierce also mentioned with he and Scotty we could be really good as the trade was made for the future not this season hence why he said he don’t think we’ll make it this year.

I don't think BI checked out. I think he was injured and not playing on particularly good teams, both of which were considerably more important factors.

[youngRAPZ]

I don’t know if he didn’t say anything of substance. I think both he and KG said basically what a lot of people on this board have been saying. BI appeared to have checked out in NO and a change of scenery could be good for him. Pierce also mentioned with he and Scotty we could be really good as the trade was made for the future not this season hence why he said he don’t think we’ll make it this year.

I don't think BI checked out. I think he was injured and not playing on particularly good teams, both of which were considerably more important factors.

Hey I never watch NO games so I can’t tell you if he checked out or not. But what I can tell you is I witnessed how OG and Siakam both checked out last year. When you’re on a team that’s losing that much and have younger prospects who you know the team is itching to replace you with (Herb and TM3) chances are you aren’t going to be going all out like you’re playing in the finals. Checked out doesn’t have to mean jimmy butler lvl get me off the team it could just be as subtle as I know im not going to be here so let me just get mine and make it through the year.


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[TheRaptor!]

Relax on being so antagonistic.

Aint no god damn way this guy just said this

[tsherkin]

Hey I never watch NO games so I can’t tell you if he checked out or not. But what I can tell you is I witnessed how OG and Siakam both checked out last year. When you’re on a team that’s losing that much and have younger prospects who you know the team is itching to replace you with (Herb and TM3) chances are you aren’t going to be going all out like you’re playing in the finals. Checked out doesn’t have to mean jimmy butler lvl get me off the team it could just be as subtle as I know im not going to be here so let me just get mine and make it through the year.

Hasn't seemed to have affected his performance to any sort of tangible, meaningful extent.

[Scase]

ORL and us will be in "roughly" the same cap situation, but ORL also has a top 3 defence, a burgeoning and young star in Paolo, Franz seemingly taking that next step, and Suggs is an all defence player. All while having a younger and less experienced core, off the back of a 5th placed finish last year, a playoff birth, and a better record this year. Could they have a better cap situation? For sure. But they are in that situation while being a good team, with players that are young and under contract control. They actually made the playoffs.

We are going to be in a "similar" cap situation with an older more experienced team, and our success hinges on the performance of a historically constantly injured player who will be 28. Our expectation next year, is to do what ORL is doing this year, with significantly worse injury luck than we had.

They are further along in their rebuild, but theirs isn't reliant on a 28 year old who is oft injured. Their team has more room to grow than ours does currently. The upcoming draft will have a large impact on our future, but since none of us know where we will land in that draft, it's not something I'm going to throw into the equation.

As for more long tail prospects, can you give me more details? I'm assuming you mean like Mogbo etc. I just don't want to jump into that bit if I'm not sure I have all the info.

Sure, but the conversation was about finishing 5th next year, not today.

Let's first look at the core/starting level players:
Raptors - Scottie, IQ, Barrett, Randle, Poeltl
Magic - Paolo, Franz, Suggs, KCP

You can argue who has the better starting point here, though I really don't think it's that far off. To be fair, I am lower on Paolo and Franz than consensus, though I'm also lower on Scottie than consensus. We also have more ways to re-shape this core as we can trade any of Barrett/IQ/Poeltl while they only have KCP as a real starting level player to move.

Let's then go into our current prospect pools - I define this as Rookie contract guys who are not firmly part of the core:
Raptors - Gradey, Walter, Ochai, Shead, Mogbo, Battle, Chomche
Magic - Da Silva, Black, Howard

Here, we have the advantage on both quntity as well as ceiling. I think it's pretty clear that our long tail young assets are just better.

Finally, let's look at our pick situation:
Next year: Raptors 1 lottery pick, Magic 2 non-lottery picks (their own and Denver)
After next year: Both teams have the same number of picks

I'd take our 1 lottery pick vs their 2 non-lottery picks as I'm sure you would as well. After that, it's a wash.

In terms of cap purposes, it's a wash starting the following season, meaning they won't do much with the advantage they'll have here next year as they need to preserve the slot for Paolo. Note that starting in the '26 season, Orlando will be paying more for their top 3 than we will be paying for ours, regardless of how that shakes out. The top end of our roster actually project cheaper.

So if next year, we outperform the Magic, I don't see how you can say that's not an accomplishment while saying the Magic have done a great job. Perhaps you forecast Paolo/Franz having a higher ceiling than Barnes/Ingram, but to me that's debatable. After that, we are younger and in better shape on any future looking dimension.

Ah I can see how things got mixed up. I wasn't saying that 5th next year is some terrible outcome, i'm saying that based off the moves we made, and how weak the east is, it shouldn't be looked at as some massive achievement. The likelihood of us reaching that is extremely dependent on BI, a 28 year old very injured player we traded for. The Magic hit 5th with just their drafted players being the major driving components, that means that they likely have a higher overall ceiling due to the age of those players having more room to grow, vs a 28 year old, who probably shouldn't be here much more than a couple years.

As for the core/starting level players, I'm not sure why you left out Carter Jr. for them, he's having a bad season but he's essentially on par with jak despite being 4 years younger.

You also said our core was Scottie/IQ/RJ/Jak and Randle, which I assume you meant BI. Just commenting on that for clarity.

I would also disagree on having more ways to shape the team, Mo wagner, Goga, Black, and Anthony are all players with positive values they could move if need be, none of them are core to the team either, our flexibility comes specifically from having to move any of 3 starters. If anything, I would argue that gives us less to work with, if we trade Jak we have no centre, IQ, we have a 3rd string PG as a starter, and RJ, that's about the only move that we could absorb. They have depth we don't, so even if they decided to move Suggs for instance, they can start Anthony until Black would/could start, as good as Shead is for his draft position, he is a mid tier backup so we'd feel it if we traded IQ. Same with Jak.

Our talent pool incoming seems better for sure, but I don't think I would say it's by a country mile. Gradey I'm high on, Mogbo I like but am unsure about, JKW seems like a bench guy which isn't bad, same with Shead, Ochai is solid albeit limited, and Chomche isn't worth mentioning since he's so far out.

Lastly, their cap is not a wash next season. We have Scottie, BI, IQ, and RJ at 25%, 24.6%, 21%, and 18% of our cap. Their equivalent would be Franz, Suggs, Paolo at 25%, 22.6%, and 10%, that's not even close even if we look at just the top 3 players. We routinely have ~70% of our cap being eaten up by 3 guys, their cap doesn't reach that problem until 26-27, and even then is still lower collectively than ours.

Just to be clear, I'm not saying the Magic are in some incredible position that any team should want to be in. Simply that they have achieved more with a younger and cheaper core than we have, or even have the chance to do. If they cap out at a 1st round team, yeah that isn't very good, but if we do the same thing, we are objectively worse as it took us more money and assets, and we did it with older and more experienced players.

Relax on being so antagonistic.

Aint no god damn way this guy just said this

The irony of your own post is clearly lost on you.

[GreatWhiteStiff]

And get this on top of that he says he’s not overly negative, you really can’t make this stuff up lol.

I gottta give it to you Scase you are one hard headed individual. No matter what anyone says or how many people disagree with you, you stand firm in your stance.

Not sure that’s a good thing lol.


Two things are for certain, Masai will make this team better for sure and you will not be happy, that’s a guarantee

This core turning into a good or contending core is anything but a guarantee, and a lot of people may be unhappy if that is the case.

[RoteSchroder]

Just to be clear, I'm not saying the Magic are in some incredible position that any team should want to be in. Simply that they have achieved more with a younger and cheaper core than we have, or even have the chance to do. If they cap out at a 1st round team, yeah that isn't very good, but if we do the same thing, we are objectively worse as it took us more money and assets, and we did it with older and more experienced players.

Not to make you explode, but with the way things are going, imagine if Magic loses in the play-in and end up with a higher pick than us by getting lucky in the lotto. They've only beat mediocre-weak teams since Franz and Banchero have come back..and have lost to tanking teams as well.

Also, Raptors need massive choke jobs to lose to mediocre teams now. A very dangerous line to play for the tank. Looking at the horrid schedule left, we may be looking at some major win streaks if we don't sit players.

[Tha Cynic]

Very good chance we’re better than Orlando next season unless they win the lottery or something. It will be interesting to see how this roster meshes but we will need to flip one of our offense guys for a defensive starter. We can potentially be better than Indiana too