Josh Giddey - Conundrum Killer

[PJSteven22]

In all fairness, Caruso got paid and despite being a nice role player on a contender, he's statistically having his worst shooting year since his rookie year. I would argue Giddey is certainly worth more than Caruso at the moment.

Caruso is a more impactful defender. Also you could have had better assets than Josh Giddey or Better pieces that contribute to winning like a Deni Avdija. Just because he’s shooting well and Caruso isn’t doesn’t mean that that trade was a success. I know how Caruso can impact winning. The jury is still out on Giddey.

Not sure Washington was looking to add a Caruso type.

Sacramento was interested in Caruso offered the 13th pick. We could’ve used that 13th pick to acquire Deni since they traded him to Portland for the 14th pick 5 days later.

[sco]

There is no way I see Giddey becoming a 2nd option unless he learns how to play like Brunson bumpingn and pushing off to create space and drawing fouls. Giddey legit doesn't jump in the midrange. Has never take a legit jumper releasing at the peak of his jump. He normally does an awkward floater.

He is already doing a better job a at drawing contact and finishing at the rim. He is taking way less floaters recently. I think he finally realized he is 6’8” and his shot won’t get blocked!

I can see him being the second best player without being the 2nd scoring option though.

You can honestly see Josh Giddey being the second best all around player on a contending NBA team? I think that's maybe pushing it a bit.

I'll say it this way. I'm still skeptical that FebruGiddey is a sustainable performance level. We know that Lauri (and Mirotic and White and others who had hot streaks) reverted to the norm. That said, Lauri did regain that level again when cast in a larger role in Utah. My point here is that there is a non-trivial chance that Giddey's game translates well to being a higher utilization player, and that he has lacked for that opportunity to demonstrate that. Not that this is a viable metric, more of an anecdotal one, but FebruGiddey has been a top 10 fantasy player...so statistically, he has been performing at that level.

Still, I'm far from believing it, but recent history has brought it the realm of possibility to me, where before, it wasn't.

Back on the Brunson point, if FebruGiddey were to have a comp, it would be more like the Luca model. I'd say Luca-lite, but I don't want to body shame him.

[HomoSapien]

There is no way I see Giddey becoming a 2nd option unless he learns how to play like Brunson bumpingn and pushing off to create space and drawing fouls. Giddey legit doesn't jump in the midrange. Has never take a legit jumper releasing at the peak of his jump. He normally does an awkward floater.

He is already doing a better job a at drawing contact and finishing at the rim. He is taking way less floaters recently. I think he finally realized he is 6’8” and his shot won’t get blocked!

I can see him being the second best player without being the 2nd scoring option though.

You can honestly see Josh Giddey being the second best all around player on a contending NBA team? I think that's maybe pushing it a bit.

Confused by that phrasing. Are you asking if he can be the 2nd best player on a team or the second-best utility player on a team? I.E. Klay Thompson was the 2nd best player on the Warriors, but Draymond Green was the 2nd best all-around player... or if we're being literal it was Iggy after Green.

It's worth noting that the 57-win Thunder were contenders last year and that Giddey was probably their 4th best player as a 21-year-old. He's clearly not a finished product yet and has time to get better.

For me, there's always been two issues: 1.) He's a defensive liability. 2.) He's a below-average three-point shooter.

I've maintained that if he can become even average at one of these two things, his value goes up significantly. Well, he's showing signs of improvement in both areas. On defense, he's blocking shots, getting steals, and also getting a lot of deflections. On offense, his three-point shooting is really trending in the right direction. In January he shot 37%. In February he's shot 56%. He's doing this on pretty good volume, especially this month.

If he closes out the season playing at this level, then I'm going to be all in on building a team around Josh Giddey's strengths and weaknesses. I think it gets forgotten how good he was as a rookie. OKC, rightfully, moved further and further away from him as SGA ascended but I'm starting to believe that this guy just needed a chance to be featured. The thing I love about Giddey is that even if he's having a bad game he's filling out the stat sheet. That's not really true of most of the players on our roster -- if they're struggling at the thing they're good at then they're no longer contributing.

[Chi town]

You make a good point. My recent perspective was that our rebuild will either require both a #1 scoring option and (barring a Matas big improvement) a #2 option. With Giddey's current level of play, I'm thinking he could be a legit #2 option on a contending team. To be sure, we still need a legit #1 option (which is obviously the hardest part).

That has the knock-on effect of needing Coby as a #2 option, which mitigates our defensive issues with the starting (future) line-up. That said, I'd have no problem with Coby playing that 6th man role that we've discussed here forever.

There is no way I see Giddey becoming a 2nd option unless he learns how to play like Brunson bumpingn and pushing off to create space and drawing fouls. Giddey legit doesn't jump in the midrange. Has never take a legit jumper releasing at the peak of his jump. He normally does an awkward floater.

He is already doing a better job a at drawing contact and finishing at the rim. He is taking way less floaters recently. I think he finally realized he is 6’8” and his shot won’t get blocked!

I can see him being the second best player without being the 2nd scoring option though.

He would have to become elite 3pt shooter, defender, or FT getter to be a 2 on a contender.

I truly hope he exceeds all expectations.

[WindyCityBorn]

Is Giddey our best 3PT shooter?

Read on Twitter

I’ve seen Coby go on heaters too

Keep praying he’ll stop playing well.

[WindyCityBorn]

There is no way I see Giddey becoming a 2nd option unless he learns how to play like Brunson bumpingn and pushing off to create space and drawing fouls. Giddey legit doesn't jump in the midrange. Has never take a legit jumper releasing at the peak of his jump. He normally does an awkward floater.

He is already doing a better job a at drawing contact and finishing at the rim. He is taking way less floaters recently. I think he finally realized he is 6’8” and his shot won’t get blocked!

I can see him being the second best player without being the 2nd scoring option though.

You can honestly see Josh Giddey being the second best all around player on a contending NBA team? I think that's maybe pushing it a bit.

I think he can be an all-star. If we get a true superstar then yes.

[Chi town]

So if Giddey keeps up the 20, 10, 8 trend…

He will end the season avg 15, 9, 7 ???

What contract will that get considering his trend?

KC said Bulls FO learned their lesson with Pat. Will be making Giddey get an offer.

[WindyCityBorn]

Caruso is a more impactful defender. Also you could have had better assets than Josh Giddey or Better pieces that contribute to winning like a Deni Avdija. Just because he’s shooting well and Caruso isn’t doesn’t mean that that trade was a success. I know how Caruso can impact winning. The jury is still out on Giddey.

Not sure Washington was looking to add a Caruso type.

Sacramento was interested in Caruso offered the 13th pick. We could’ve used that 13th pick to acquire Deni since they traded him to Portland for the 14th pick 5 days later.

Rather have Giddey than a pick that will 99 percent be worse than him.

[WindyCityBorn]

So if Giddey keeps up the 20, 10, 8 trend…

He will end the season avg 15, 9, 7 ???

What contract will that get considering his trend?

KC said Bulls FO learned their lesson with Pat. Will be making Giddey get an offer.

Unlikely. They are all in on Giddey. $20 to $25 million per if he continues this the rest of the season.

Nothing to learn from Pat because Giddey is 20x the player Pat is. Pat was paid strictly on potential. That’s not the case here.

[Dez]

So if Giddey keeps up the 20, 10, 8 trend…

He will end the season avg 15, 9, 7 ???

What contract will that get considering his trend?

KC said Bulls FO learned their lesson with Pat. Will be making Giddey get an offer.

Unlikely. They are all in on Giddey. $20 to $25 million per if he continues this the rest of the season.

Nothing to learn from Pat because Giddey is 20x the player Pat is. Pat was paid strictly on potential. That’s not the case here.

Well there is something to learn and that's let someone else make the first offer.

[DuckIII]

FebruGiddey

[Dan Z]

Not sure Washington was looking to add a Caruso type.

Sacramento was interested in Caruso offered the 13th pick. We could’ve used that 13th pick to acquire Deni since they traded him to Portland for the 14th pick 5 days later.

Rather have Giddey than a pick that will 99 percent be worse than him.

It depends on who they pick in that scenario. Devin Carter was taken at 13 and started the season off with an injury. I'm not sure how he's looked since that time.

The next three picks were: Bud Carrington, Ke'le Ware and Jared McCain. All three players have shown potential.

The other thing to keep in mind is that you'd get said rookie on their rookie contract and with Giddey the Bulls have to pay him in a year.

[WindyCityBorn]

Not sure Washington was looking to add a Caruso type.

Sacramento was interested in Caruso offered the 13th pick. We could’ve used that 13th pick to acquire Deni since they traded him to Portland for the 14th pick 5 days later.

Rather have Giddey than a pick that will 99 percent be worse than him.

His entire career so far will be factored will be factored the deal. Just because he didn’t play here doesn’t mean the data is lacking.

We don’t need to know how he fits with this roster either because no more than 3 or 4 them will be here by 2027 and all of them are project be inferior except MAYBE Buzelis.

[WindyCityBorn]

So if Giddey keeps up the 20, 10, 8 trend…

He will end the season avg 15, 9, 7 ???

What contract will that get considering his trend?

KC said Bulls FO learned their lesson with Pat. Will be making Giddey get an offer.

Unlikely. They are all in on Giddey. $20 to $25 million per if he continues this the rest of the season.

Nothing to learn from Pat because Giddey is 20x the player Pat is. Pat was paid strictly on potential. That’s not the case here.

Well there is something to learn and that's let someone else make the first offer.

How often do front offices that believe in a player make them go out and get an offer sheet? It doesn’t seem very common to me. Seems like something you resort to if deal can’t be reached amicably. You are talking like it’s standard operating procedure for every player isn’t getting a max contract.

[pipfan]

Let's say Giddy stays steady-obviously not a 50% 3 pt shooter, but decent, and his defense has been better.
Then, let's also say we get lotto-magic
What do we think of this team?
Ball/Ayo/White
Giddy/White/Huerter
Matas/PWill/Terry/Huerter
Flagg/PWill/Phillips
Collins/Smith/Nurkic (traded for Vuc with the #34 pick)

That's a young, fun team with a lot of depth. We'd have A TON of 2026 cap space coming and some young talent

I still think we should trade both Vuc and White in June, but Coby could be an excellent 6th man

[Dan Z]

Let's say Giddy stays steady-obviously not a 50% 3 pt shooter, but decent, and his defense has been better.
Then, let's also say we get lotto-magic
What do we think of this team?
Ball/Ayo/White
Giddy/White/Huerter
Matas/PWill/Terry/Huerter
Flagg/PWill/Phillips
Collins/Smith/Nurkic (traded for Vuc with the #34 pick)

That's a young, fun team with a lot of depth. We'd have A TON of 2026 cap space coming and some young talent

I still think we should trade both Vuc and White in June, but Coby could be an excellent 6th man

I like it because the Bulls got Flagg who can be the franchise player to build around.

In that scenario I'd talk to Coby and try to figure out what kind of contract he might want. If it's not bad then I keep him. You'll need someone else on the team to score. But if he wants too much you move on asap.

I agree that you trade Vucevic.

[Donkedave]

Let's say Giddy stays steady-obviously not a 50% 3 pt shooter, but decent, and his defense has been better.
Then, let's also say we get lotto-magic
What do we think of this team?
Ball/Ayo/White
Giddy/White/Huerter
Matas/PWill/Terry/Huerter
Flagg/PWill/Phillips
Collins/Smith/Nurkic (traded for Vuc with the #34 pick)

That's a young, fun team with a lot of depth. We'd have A TON of 2026 cap space coming and some young talent

I still think we should trade both Vuc and White in June, but Coby could be an excellent 6th man

Why fark would the hornets trade nurk for Vuch and give up pick 34ish! Cmon now, both expiring deals.

Costs then another 2m+ change for same result. Still playing for bottom 5

[2weekswithpay]

How much of Giddey's recent play is real or sustainable?

Let me begin by saying Giddey isn't a bad NBA player. My issues with Giddey stem from his player archetype, combined with his strengths, and weaknesses. Yes, we traded for him but I don't think we should be highly invested in him. To simplify things, I'm fine keeping him, I just don't want to pay him Jalen Suggs' type money (5ys 30M AAV).

Shooting

I believe fans often confuse shooting variance with breaking out. When a 33% 3pt shooter suddenly shoots 45% from 3 over 2-3 weeks you can probably point to shooting variance. Jalen Green is one of the better recent examples of this. I'm not singling Giddey out here, I said this earlier in the season with Vuc, and I said this last season with Coby. This isn't to say Giddey hasn't improved as a shooter. He's been trending in the right direction as the season goes on.

Oct-Nov: 36% from 3
Dec: 23%
Jan: 37%
Feb: 56%

His FT% is also trending upwards.

Oct-Dec 73%
Jan-Feb: 84%

This looks like shooting improvement but the sample size is too small to come to any conclusions.

Driving/Finishing

Last season Giddey averaged 7.1 drives per game and shot 49% on 3.4 FGAs. He shot 61% in the restricted area and 41% in the paint.

This season. 9.4 drives per game on 48.6% and 3.3 FGAs. 57.3% in the RA, and 47.5% in the paint.

This month. 13 drives per game, on 49% and 4.5 FGAs. Big difference here is the 2 FTAs. 52% in the RA, and 53% in the paint.

Last 16 games. 11.8 drives per game on 51% and 4.1 FGAs. Also 1.6 FTAs. 56% in the RA, and 53% in the paint.

I'm not seeing any improvement in finishing at the rim. His floater could be the reason behind the slight bump in paint finishing. Giddey can get downhill and score against smaller guards, but against wings and forwards, his finishing issues become an issue. There's been a consistent increase in free throw rate in 4 seasons.

Spoiler:

Defense

A slight uptick in deflections this season compared to last season. 1.1 vs 2.2. This month he's a 2.9 deflections per game. Giddey is more aware and motivated than he was at the start of the season and his size plus rebound give him some defensive value. However, Giddey still doesn't bring much value on defense.
He can wall up against straight-line drives, but his poor lateral quickness makes him a liability against any decent perimeter scorer or when he has to navigate screens.

Spoiler:

It's not enough to make me feel comfortable paying Giddey the 30M he wants in the summer but I do think he's improving.

[League Circles]

Let's say Giddy stays steady-obviously not a 50% 3 pt shooter, but decent, and his defense has been better.
Then, let's also say we get lotto-magic
What do we think of this team?
Ball/Ayo/White
Giddy/White/Huerter
Matas/PWill/Terry/Huerter
Flagg/PWill/Phillips
Collins/Smith/Nurkic (traded for Vuc with the #34 pick)

That's a young, fun team with a lot of depth. We'd have A TON of 2026 cap space coming and some young talent

I still think we should trade both Vuc and White in June, but Coby could be an excellent 6th man

I don't really like it. Not enough defense or scoring. Smith is better than Collins too, but IMO unless Matas can guard the 2 we need more quickness, especially cause I don't feel comfortable relying so heavily on Ball.

[sco]

Let's say Giddy stays steady-obviously not a 50% 3 pt shooter, but decent, and his defense has been better.
Then, let's also say we get lotto-magic
What do we think of this team?
Ball/Ayo/White
Giddy/White/Huerter
Matas/PWill/Terry/Huerter
Flagg/PWill/Phillips
Collins/Smith/Nurkic (traded for Vuc with the #34 pick)

That's a young, fun team with a lot of depth. We'd have A TON of 2026 cap space coming and some young talent

I still think we should trade both Vuc and White in June, but Coby could be an excellent 6th man

I don't really like it. Not enough defense or scoring. Smith is better than Collins too, but IMO unless Matas can guard the 2 we need more quickness, especially cause I don't feel comfortable relying so heavily on Ball.

I'm sure we won't have to worry about getting Flagg, but c'mon, that would be the best possible outcome for Bulls fans.