Josh Giddey - Conundrum Killer

[League Circles]

Let's say Giddy stays steady-obviously not a 50% 3 pt shooter, but decent, and his defense has been better.
Then, let's also say we get lotto-magic
What do we think of this team?
Ball/Ayo/White
Giddy/White/Huerter
Matas/PWill/Terry/Huerter
Flagg/PWill/Phillips
Collins/Smith/Nurkic (traded for Vuc with the #34 pick)

That's a young, fun team with a lot of depth. We'd have A TON of 2026 cap space coming and some young talent

I still think we should trade both Vuc and White in June, but Coby could be an excellent 6th man

I don't really like it. Not enough defense or scoring. Smith is better than Collins too, but IMO unless Matas can guard the 2 we need more quickness, especially cause I don't feel comfortable relying so heavily on Ball.

I'm sure we won't have to worry about getting Flagg, but c'mon, that would be the best possible outcome for Bulls fans.

It would be cool to get Flagg I guess, though tbh I'm not nearly as high on him as many others are. I think he looks like an average #1 overall pick at best, and those guys are often way less than superstar building blocks.

But if we get #1 and take Flagg, I'd probably try to sign-and trade Giddey rather than keep him. I would be looking for something different if I had Flagg and Matas playing together. Frankly I like Coby over Giddey in that scenario.

[sco]

How much of Giddey's recent play is real or sustainable?

Let me begin by saying Giddey isn't a bad NBA player. My issues with Giddey stem from his player archetype, combined with his strengths, and weaknesses. Yes, we traded for him but I don't think we should be highly invested in him. To simplify things, I'm fine keeping him, I just don't want to pay him Jalen Suggs' type money (5ys 30M AAV).

Shooting

I believe fans often confuse shooting variance with breaking out. When a 33% 3pt shooter suddenly shoots 45% from 3 over 2-3 weeks you can probably point to shooting variance. Jalen Green is one of the better recent examples of this. I'm not singling Giddey out here, I said this earlier in the season with Vuc, and I said this last season with Coby. This isn't to say Giddey hasn't improved as a shooter. He's been trending in the right direction as the season goes on.

Oct-Nov: 36% from 3
Dec: 23%
Jan: 37%
Feb: 56%

His FT% is also trending upwards.

Oct-Dec 73%
Jan-Feb: 84%

This looks like shooting improvement but the sample size is too small to come to any conclusions.

Driving/Finishing

Last season Giddey averaged 7.1 drives per game and shot 49% on 3.4 FGAs. He shot 61% in the restricted area and 41% in the paint.

This season. 9.4 drives per game on 48.6% and 3.3 FGAs. 57.3% in the RA, and 47.5% in the paint.

This month. 13 drives per game, on 49% and 4.5 FGAs. Big difference here is the 2 FTAs. 52% in the RA, and 53% in the paint.

Last 16 games. 11.8 drives per game on 51% and 4.1 FGAs. Also 1.6 FTAs. 56% in the RA, and 53% in the paint.

I'm not seeing any improvement in finishing at the rim. His floater could be the reason behind the slight bump in paint finishing. Giddey can get downhill and score against smaller guards, but against wings and forwards, his finishing issues become an issue. There's been a consistent increase in free throw rate in 4 seasons.

Spoiler:

Defense

A slight uptick in deflections this season compared to last season. 1.1 vs 2.2. This month he's a 2.9 deflections per game. Giddey is more aware and motivated than he was at the start of the season and his size plus rebound give him some defensive value. However, Giddey still doesn't bring much value on defense.
He can wall up against straight-line drives, but his poor lateral quickness makes him a liability against any decent perimeter scorer or when he has to navigate screens.

Spoiler:

It's not enough to make me feel comfortable paying Giddey the 30M he wants in the summer but I do think he's improving.

Interesting! The way I see it is that Giddey has thrived with Zach's departure (even more with Vuc out) getting higher utilization and the additional confidence that role has given him. I contend that watching him for the rest of the season before making decisions about his contract and future role because it won't take long for teams to start scheming against him, and the way he responds to additional defensive attention will be telling. He's been our 3rd/4th option since coming here, and suddenly he's been put in a 1st/2nd option role, but without the usual defensive attention for that role. If he succeeds at this level going forward, that would be very telling IMO. I remember Coby struggling with going back and forth between scoring and distributing when he got the chance.

If he does succeed, probably only a 50/50 outcome IMO, then I'd be in favor of him keeping that role into next season.

[Jcool0]

I don't really like it. Not enough defense or scoring. Smith is better than Collins too, but IMO unless Matas can guard the 2 we need more quickness, especially cause I don't feel comfortable relying so heavily on Ball.

I'm sure we won't have to worry about getting Flagg, but c'mon, that would be the best possible outcome for Bulls fans.

It would be cool to get Flagg I guess, though tbh I'm not nearly as high on him as many others are. I think he looks like an average #1 overall pick at best, and those guys are often way less than superstar building blocks.

But if we get #1 and take Flagg, I'd probably try to sign-and trade Giddey rather than keep him. I would be looking for something different if I had Flagg and Matas playing together. Frankly I like Coby over Giddey in that scenario.

He should be a high school senior right now and it scoring 20 ppg and you think he is an average #1 pick?

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[League Circles]

I'm sure we won't have to worry about getting Flagg, but c'mon, that would be the best possible outcome for Bulls fans.

It would be cool to get Flagg I guess, though tbh I'm not nearly as high on him as many others are. I think he looks like an average #1 overall pick at best, and those guys are often way less than superstar building blocks.

But if we get #1 and take Flagg, I'd probably try to sign-and trade Giddey rather than keep him. I would be looking for something different if I had Flagg and Matas playing together. Frankly I like Coby over Giddey in that scenario.

He should be a high school senior right now and it scoring 20 ppg and you think he is an average #1 pick?

Read on Twitter

College stats mean virtually nothing to me. Seen way too many guys score big in college and be absolutely nothing in the league. I go by eye test for draftees and while I can see why people say he should be the #1 overall pick, I think he's a lot closer to Andrea Bargnani than Shaquille O'Neal.

[sco]

It would be cool to get Flagg I guess, though tbh I'm not nearly as high on him as many others are. I think he looks like an average #1 overall pick at best, and those guys are often way less than superstar building blocks.

But if we get #1 and take Flagg, I'd probably try to sign-and trade Giddey rather than keep him. I would be looking for something different if I had Flagg and Matas playing together. Frankly I like Coby over Giddey in that scenario.

He should be a high school senior right now and it scoring 20 ppg and you think he is an average #1 pick?

Read on Twitter

College stats mean virtually nothing to me. Seen way too many guys score big in college and be absolutely nothing in the league. I go by eye test for draftees and while I can see why people say he should be the #1 overall pick, I think he's a lot closer to Andrea Bargnani than Shaquille O'Neal.

In terms of what I've seen from him, it's more Zion or AD.

[League Circles]

He should be a high school senior right now and it scoring 20 ppg and you think he is an average #1 pick?

Read on Twitter

College stats mean virtually nothing to me. Seen way too many guys score big in college and be absolutely nothing in the league. I go by eye test for draftees and while I can see why people say he should be the #1 overall pick, I think he's a lot closer to Andrea Bargnani than Shaquille O'Neal.

In terms of what I've seen from him, it's more Zion or AD.

That's probably not too far off, as those guys are probably roughly average #1 overall picks. Or to be more precise, roughly average "best players in a draft".

[Jcool0]

It would be cool to get Flagg I guess, though tbh I'm not nearly as high on him as many others are. I think he looks like an average #1 overall pick at best, and those guys are often way less than superstar building blocks.

But if we get #1 and take Flagg, I'd probably try to sign-and trade Giddey rather than keep him. I would be looking for something different if I had Flagg and Matas playing together. Frankly I like Coby over Giddey in that scenario.

He should be a high school senior right now and it scoring 20 ppg and you think he is an average #1 pick?

Read on Twitter

College stats mean virtually nothing to me. Seen way too many guys score big in college and be absolutely nothing in the league. I go by eye test for draftees and while I can see why people say he should be the #1 overall pick, I think he's a lot closer to Andrea Bargnani than Shaquille O'Neal.

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

[Jcool0]

College stats mean virtually nothing to me. Seen way too many guys score big in college and be absolutely nothing in the league. I go by eye test for draftees and while I can see why people say he should be the #1 overall pick, I think he's a lot closer to Andrea Bargnani than Shaquille O'Neal.

In terms of what I've seen from him, it's more Zion or AD.

That's probably not too far off, as those guys are probably roughly average #1 overall picks. Or to be more precise, roughly average "best players in a draft".

AD and Zion were average #1 picks? Do you only watch Bulls games and not a single other NBA thing?

[pipfan]

I don't really like it. Not enough defense or scoring. Smith is better than Collins too, but IMO unless Matas can guard the 2 we need more quickness, especially cause I don't feel comfortable relying so heavily on Ball.

I'm sure we won't have to worry about getting Flagg, but c'mon, that would be the best possible outcome for Bulls fans.

It would be cool to get Flagg I guess, though tbh I'm not nearly as high on him as many others are. I think he looks like an average #1 overall pick at best, and those guys are often way less than superstar building blocks.

But if we get #1 and take Flagg, I'd probably try to sign-and trade Giddey rather than keep him. I would be looking for something different if I had Flagg and Matas playing together. Frankly I like Coby over Giddey in that scenario.

I like the idea of having a big lineup. Ball/Giddy/Flagg/Matas/Collins or Smith is a lot of size, and good athletes. Ayo/White would be an awesome bench, along with PWIll and Smith/Collins

Not a bad lineup to see what happens

[WindyCityBorn]

I don't really like it. Not enough defense or scoring. Smith is better than Collins too, but IMO unless Matas can guard the 2 we need more quickness, especially cause I don't feel comfortable relying so heavily on Ball.

I'm sure we won't have to worry about getting Flagg, but c'mon, that would be the best possible outcome for Bulls fans.

It would be cool to get Flagg I guess, though tbh I'm not nearly as high on him as many others are. I think he looks like an average #1 overall pick at best, and those guys are often way less than superstar building blocks.

But if we get #1 and take Flagg, I'd probably try to sign-and trade Giddey rather than keep him. I would be looking for something different if I had Flagg and Matas playing together. Frankly I like Coby over Giddey in that scenario.

[WindyCityBorn]

I'm sure we won't have to worry about getting Flagg, but c'mon, that would be the best possible outcome for Bulls fans.

It would be cool to get Flagg I guess, though tbh I'm not nearly as high on him as many others are. I think he looks like an average #1 overall pick at best, and those guys are often way less than superstar building blocks.

But if we get #1 and take Flagg, I'd probably try to sign-and trade Giddey rather than keep him. I would be looking for something different if I had Flagg and Matas playing together. Frankly I like Coby over Giddey in that scenario.

I like the idea of having a big lineup. Ball/Giddy/Flagg/Matas/Collins or Smith is a lot of size, and good athletes. Ayo/White would be an awesome bench, along with PWIll and Smith/Collins

Not a bad lineup to see what happens

A lineup with Flagg, Giddey and Buzelis all reaching their potential is a serious championship contender. And Chicago would highly attractive destination for a good role players.

[WindyCityBorn]

In terms of what I've seen from him, it's more Zion or AD.

That's probably not too far off, as those guys are probably roughly average #1 overall picks. Or to be more precise, roughly average "best players in a draft".

AD and Zion were average #1 picks? Do you only watch Bulls games and not a single other NBA thing?

Zion is a bad #1 pick. Lack of work ethic.

[Jcool0]

That's probably not too far off, as those guys are probably roughly average #1 overall picks. Or to be more precise, roughly average "best players in a draft".

AD and Zion were average #1 picks? Do you only watch Bulls games and not a single other NBA thing?

Zion is a bad #1 pick. Lack of work ethic.

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[League Circles]

In terms of what I've seen from him, it's more Zion or AD.

That's probably not too far off, as those guys are probably roughly average #1 overall picks. Or to be more precise, roughly average "best players in a draft".

AD and Zion were average #1 picks? Do you only watch Bulls games and not a single other NBA thing?

I mean idk, I wasn't looking at a list. I'd say maybe AD was above average as the "best player in a draft (who should go #1)", Zion probably no better than average though hard to assess considering the injuries.

Edit: ok I just looked at all the #1 picks in the one and done era since 2006. Now I wasn't looking at the best player in each draft which IMO is the relevant comparison and what I was talking about just to be clear, but looking at the guys actually taken #1 overall since then, I'd project Flagg to become worse than 5 of them, better than 10 of them, and roughly equal to 4 of them. If I'm right that would make him above average for a #1 pick, but probably no better than average, and maybe slightly below average for a "best eventual pro in his draft class".

[drosestruts]

Comparing Flagg to Banchero and using that as evidence of superstar trajectory is pretty funny to me.

I personally find Banchero crazy overrated and not that good (a carer 53% TS% for a 6'10 supposed star is a joke)

Yes Flaggs BPM look way better than Banchero's, but it's lower than plenty of #1 picks:

Flagg - 15.9
Zion - 20.1
AD - 17.2

[dougthonus]

College stats mean virtually nothing to me. Seen way too many guys score big in college and be absolutely nothing in the league. I go by eye test for draftees and while I can see why people say he should be the #1 overall pick, I think he's a lot closer to Andrea Bargnani than Shaquille O'Neal.

Sort of a weird comparison because Shaq might be a top 10 player of all time and Bargnani was probably an empty calorie below average starter. I don't know if you would say a 4x all star is closer to Shaq or Bargnani in that conversation, so it's kind of weird.

I'd say Flagg is a likely multi-time all-star, as a prospect probably more similar to someone like Blake Griffin or Anthony Davis as a prospect.

[PJSteven22]

Not sure Washington was looking to add a Caruso type.

Sacramento was interested in Caruso offered the 13th pick. We could’ve used that 13th pick to acquire Deni since they traded him to Portland for the 14th pick 5 days later.

Rather have Giddey than a pick that will 99 percent be worse than him.

I’d rather have a guy that can play off ball and play defense (Ware or McClain) over a guy that’s going to need the ball in his hands a ton but doesn’t have the scoring gravity or overall talent to justify it.

[League Circles]

College stats mean virtually nothing to me. Seen way too many guys score big in college and be absolutely nothing in the league. I go by eye test for draftees and while I can see why people say he should be the #1 overall pick, I think he's a lot closer to Andrea Bargnani than Shaquille O'Neal.

Sort of a weird comparison because Shaq might be a top 10 player of all time and Bargnani was probably an empty calorie below average starter. I don't know if you would say a 4x all star is closer to Shaq or Bargnani in that conversation, so it's kind of weird.

I'd say Flagg is a likely multi-time all-star, as a prospect probably more similar to someone like Blake Griffin or Anthony Davis as a prospect.

Sounds about right, Shaq and Bargnani were just two names that came to mind, but fwiw, I project Flagg as between AD and Griffin, which is a good all star but hardly a title-driving superstar. Which is fine btw - I think we should try to build a team that can win despite not having a true superstar, as I think those are too rare and unrealistic to acquire. As of now I'd be fine with Flagg at #1 but I just don't expect him to ever be like a top 5 NBA player. If I'm correct, that makes roster fit very important, not in the sense of us drafting for need with our current roster, but just in the sense of "how do we go from Flagg at #1 overall to an elite 5 man unit?"

[dougthonus]

Sounds about right, Shaq and Bargnani were just two names that came to mind, but fwiw, I project Flagg as between AD and Griffin, which is a good all star but hardly a title-driving superstar. Which is fine btw - I think we should try to build a team that can win despite not having a true superstar, as I think those are too rare and unrealistic to acquire. As of now I'd be fine with Flagg at #1 but I just don't expect him to ever be like a top 5 NBA player. If I'm correct, that makes roster fit very important, not in the sense of us drafting for need with our current roster, but just in the sense of "how do we go from Flagg at #1 overall to an elite 5 man unit?"

I think the vast majority of guys who end up top 5 players are guys you don't expect to be top 5 players going in. I mean over the last say 30 years is that list something like: Shaq, LeBron, Wemby? I think you look at a guy whom you think has star potential then hope he's just even better than you thought.

[PJSteven22]

It would be cool to get Flagg I guess, though tbh I'm not nearly as high on him as many others are. I think he looks like an average #1 overall pick at best, and those guys are often way less than superstar building blocks.

But if we get #1 and take Flagg, I'd probably try to sign-and trade Giddey rather than keep him. I would be looking for something different if I had Flagg and Matas playing together. Frankly I like Coby over Giddey in that scenario.

He should be a high school senior right now and it scoring 20 ppg and you think he is an average #1 pick?

Read on Twitter

College stats mean virtually nothing to me. Seen way too many guys score big in college and be absolutely nothing in the league. I go by eye test for draftees and while I can see why people say he should be the #1 overall pick, I think he's a lot closer to Andrea Bargnani than Shaquille O'Neal.

This a guy that is the best college player and he literally LeBrons age as a High School Senior. Just because one guy doesn’t pan out doesn’t mean you dismiss the rest.