Josh Giddey - Conundrum Killer

[League Circles]

We'll see what he measures at the combine, but I admit I haven't watched Flagg like many others have. But when I have, he hasn't jumped out to me in the way he apparently is to others. Though I would say that what I'm talking about can't quite be captured in height + vertical leap. There are certain guys that instantly stand out on the court. Very, very few and far between.

Yeah, I don't know what it means to pop specifically, but if you just mean very few and far between, sure I agree he doesn't pop like a LeBron might. I agree, like I said, I put him as an Anthony Davis type of prospect, Davis when healthy probably pretty consistently has been a top 10ish type player, but probably never a top 5ish type player, but he easily might have been if things had worked out differently, and if things had worked out a bit less well, he might have been a more of a top 20ish or 30ish type guy.

Sounds about right to me. I'm not ultra excited about a guy that projects to be the best player on an average team. More concerned about fit. Though to be clear, to me that wouldn't mean passing on Flagg, it would mean being less likely to commit to Giddey. Just cause if Flagg is what many say he is, I think the benefit of a guy like Giddey controlling the ball is diminished.

[drosestruts]

Yes Flaggs BPM look way better than Banchero's, but it's lower than plenty of #1 picks:

Flagg - 15.9
Zion - 20.1
AD - 17.2

A couple of caveats -

1) By class/age, Flagg is a high school senior
2) You can run an offense through Flagg

The second point is the critical one for me. As a college player, Flagg averages 5.2 assists per 40, whereas Zion, Blake Griffin, and AD were at 2.7, 2.6, and 1.6 respectively. That puts Flagg in a different category than them, with LeBron, Tatum, Butler and other point forwards, rather than in the category of power players like Zion, Blake, and AD. Flagg is also shooting 37.5% on 3s, which is above what any of those guys did while in college -- and 3s are a BIG deal these days.

I think that the main argument against Flagg is that he's white and people don't trust white forwards as prospects - Bargs, Laettner, Danny Ferry, Adam Morrison, Keith van Horn, etc. It's hard for me to make the comparison to those players, it's been a long time, but I think Cooper's power/explosiveness is at a different level than theirs.

How long does Flagg's age give him extra magical potential?

There's no award for being young. You don't get extra wins for how young your team is.

So Flagg does more than AD and Zion but Zion and AD still have a bigger impact? I don't follow your point here?

Flagg is younger than these guys. Flagg generates more assists than these guys. Flagg does not impact winning more.

But I only chimed in because I didn't know why we were using Paolo Banchero as some sort of meaningful barometer or future success.

[Jcool0]

Yes Flaggs BPM look way better than Banchero's, but it's lower than plenty of #1 picks:

Flagg - 15.9
Zion - 20.1
AD - 17.2

A couple of caveats -

1) By class/age, Flagg is a high school senior
2) You can run an offense through Flagg

The second point is the critical one for me. As a college player, Flagg averages 5.2 assists per 40, whereas Zion, Blake Griffin, and AD were at 2.7, 2.6, and 1.6 respectively. That puts Flagg in a different category than them, with LeBron, Tatum, Butler and other point forwards, rather than in the category of power players like Zion, Blake, and AD. Flagg is also shooting 37.5% on 3s, which is above what any of those guys did while in college -- and 3s are a BIG deal these days.

I think that the main argument against Flagg is that he's white and people don't trust white forwards as prospects - Bargs, Laettner, Danny Ferry, Adam Morrison, Keith van Horn, etc. It's hard for me to make the comparison to those players, it's been a long time, but I think Cooper's power/explosiveness is at a different level than theirs.

How long does Flagg's age give him extra magical potential?

There's no award for being young. You don't get extra wins for how young your team is.

So Flagg does more than AD and Zion but Zion and AD still have a bigger impact? I don't follow your point here?

Flagg is younger than these guys. Flagg generates more assists than these guys. Flagg does not impact winning more.

But I only chimed in because I didn't know why we were using Paolo Banchero as some sort of meaningful barometer or future success.

Paolo was a recent #1 pick from Duke, who would be a 2x all star if not for injury who averages 24/6/5. FWIW Flagg has a top 5 all time BPM for freshman.

[Jcool0]

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[Bulliever2020]

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It's so disturbing that this FO needs to "learn" something as basic as letting the market dictate value.

[Jcool0]

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It's so disturbing that this FO needs to "learn" something as basic as letting the market dictate value.

Better now then never.

[dawhizz]

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I’ll believe it when I see it.

[Ice Man]

How long does Flagg's age give him extra magical potential?

Not sure of your point here. Age is hugely important for projecting future improvement. LeBron projected to be an All Timer not because he was the best rookie ever -- Tim Duncan, to name one, was clearly better -- but because he was that level of good at that age. The same logic applies to Flagg being (arguably) the single best player in college hoops this year, while 17 when the season began.

So Flagg does more than AD and Zion but Zion and AD still have a bigger impact?

My point is that Flagg plays a different role than those guys, so he's not comparable to them. As a side note, I don't get too worked up about this BPM vs. that one. Zion was better as a college freshman than Steph was according to BPM. Yeah OK. Anybody want Zion instead of Steph for the pro career?

[WindyCityBorn]

Another strong game for Giddey. I think keeping him isn’t even up for debate anymore. Only the price.

[cocktailswith_2short]

Giddey getting praise on the general board ..comments like "this is what we all wanted ben Simmons to be " .

[PJSteven22]

He played well. He did a good job of leveraging his drives into scoring opportunities.

[Stratmaster]

I know how Caruso can impact winning. The jury is still out on Giddey.

That's the nature of the beast. When teams trade a 30 year old for a 22 year old, the first guy is a current winner and the second guy is a current loser. If the 30 year old weren't a winner, he would have no trade value and if the 22 year old was already a winner, the team that had him would not trade him.

I mean, what 22 year old guard is winning games now? OK, to answer my own question Ausar Thompson ranks #63 on EPM (that's just one stat, but we gotta pick something) and Dyson Daniels ranks #100. Those are the only 2 guards in the Top 100 on that list who are 22 years or younger (they are both 22). So, it's not a common thing.

In 5 years, several of the young PGs who are currently losing players will become winners. I dunno if we have one of those, but we might. That's about as good as it gets for a trade like this.

My question has never been he can’t fill up a stat sheet. I know he can do that. Can he produce in context of winning. The answer is still no. When there’s other talented players around him he tends to shrink because he can’t create his own shot off the bounce. He doesn’t have the supplementary skills to be an effective player if the offense isn’t revolving around him. Personally I would have taken the draft pick.

This is what I will now forever call the "Zach Lavine principle". Take a guy. Surround him with bad players. Give him bad coaching. Then question whether he can contribute to winning.

[WesPeace]

Haha, exactly that Stratmaster.. Zach never had really a great chance with Bulls, 1 season maybe if Ball remained healthy..

[Chi town]

Fun to watch Giddey adjust to being keyed on. Mainly lost of assists in the first half and then the defensive pressure eases in the 2nd half and he gets more shots.

He missed a couple bunnies against the Raps he normally makes. Close to being another giant game with a couple more makes close and another 3 going down.

He’s improving. Zo is a good fit with him. Would love to see a lib threat C that can also rim protect with Giddey. Could open up a lot.

[Jcool0]

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[WindyCityBorn]

Fun to watch Giddey adjust to being keyed on. Mainly lost of assists in the first half and then the defensive pressure eases in the 2nd half and he gets more shots.

He missed a couple bunnies against the Raps he normally makes. Close to being another giant game with a couple more makes close and another 3 going down.

He’s improving. Zo is a good fit with him. Would love to see a lib threat C that can also rim protect with Giddey. Could open up a lot.

I think Collins is doing a great job as a rim running big. Not a lob threat, but cuts and run the floor unlike Vuc which can get him 3 or 4 easy baskets a night. I would be perfectly content going into next with Collins as our starting Center. And he’s only 27 so he could be here for a while.

Collins
Buzelis
Ball
Giddey
Coby or Ayo

Of course if we luck into a top 4 pick that guy will or rather should be starting over someone.

[Chi town]

Fun to watch Giddey adjust to being keyed on. Mainly lost of assists in the first half and then the defensive pressure eases in the 2nd half and he gets more shots.

He missed a couple bunnies against the Raps he normally makes. Close to being another giant game with a couple more makes close and another 3 going down.

He’s improving. Zo is a good fit with him. Would love to see a lib threat C that can also rim protect with Giddey. Could open up a lot.

I think Collins is doing a great job as a rim running big. Not a lob threat, but cuts and run the floor unlike Vuc which can get him 3 or 4 easy baskets a night. I would be perfectly content going into next with Collins as our starting Center. And he’s only 27 so he could be here for a while.

Collins
Buzelis
Ball
Giddey
Coby or Ayo

Of course if we luck into a top 4 pick that guy will or rather should be starting over someone.

Unless it’s Flagg that rookie will be coming off the bench and getting the Buz treatment.

Collins is a floor raiser energy big. Terrible for a tank but he will miss lots of games due injury like always so he’s fine.

That team above is horrible for a tank and a playoff birth. Same middle BS. We need to trade Zo Vuc and Coby to truly be top 4 team next season.

[PJSteven22]

That's the nature of the beast. When teams trade a 30 year old for a 22 year old, the first guy is a current winner and the second guy is a current loser. If the 30 year old weren't a winner, he would have no trade value and if the 22 year old was already a winner, the team that had him would not trade him.

I mean, what 22 year old guard is winning games now? OK, to answer my own question Ausar Thompson ranks #63 on EPM (that's just one stat, but we gotta pick something) and Dyson Daniels ranks #100. Those are the only 2 guards in the Top 100 on that list who are 22 years or younger (they are both 22). So, it's not a common thing.

In 5 years, several of the young PGs who are currently losing players will become winners. I dunno if we have one of those, but we might. That's about as good as it gets for a trade like this.

My question has never been he can’t fill up a stat sheet. I know he can do that. Can he produce in context of winning. The answer is still no. When there’s other talented players around him he tends to shrink because he can’t create his own shot off the bounce. He doesn’t have the supplementary skills to be an effective player if the offense isn’t revolving around him. Personally I would have taken the draft pick.

This is what I will now forever call the "Zach Lavine principle". Take a guy. Surround him with bad players. Give him bad coaching. Then question whether he can contribute to winning.

Two different situations. Zach showed that he can be an elite off ball scorer and win when they had the right players around him. Whereas Giddey needs the ball in his hands to be effective. Can Giddey be as effective with good players around him is the question?

[Lunartic]

Giddey is currently the Bulls best player

[cocktailswith_2short]

Giddey is currently the Bulls best player

comfortably at that . Pretty good haul for an aging defensive specialist . Maybe ak isn't as bad as we make him out to be .