2024-25 NBA MVP Discussion Thread (Pt. 3: Son of daughter of MVP thread)

[One Last Shot]

Yeah Murray averaged 26 5 7 during the playoffs title run. That’s all star numbers. Give Jokic a healthy Murray then you will see.

He's healthy enough to play 43 minutes and scored 35 points against the Wolves in Game 7 last playoffs. They got outplayed in the 2nd half and allowed the biggest comeback in Game 7 history being up by 20 in the 3rd quarter while Jokic was -23 in the 2nd half. It is what it is, Joker is 0-5 in a playoffs series against any team who won atleast 50 games for his entire career. Don't get me wrong, I'm one of his biggest fan and I hope we're going to see him and his squad to overcome that obstacle this time around in 2025 playoffs.

Murray scored 18 PPG on 48% TS in the TWolves series

he scored 35 points on 60% TS in the most important game of the series.

[Wolfgang630]

Joker should be player of the month again, but knowing the NBA they’ll make sure it’s LeBron

[Infinite Llamas]

He's healthy enough to play 43 minutes and scored 35 points against the Wolves in Game 7 last playoffs. They got outplayed in the 2nd half and allowed the biggest comeback in Game 7 history being up by 20 in the 3rd quarter while Jokic was -23 in the 2nd half. It is what it is, Joker is 0-5 in a playoffs series against any team who won atleast 50 games for his entire career. Don't get me wrong, I'm one of his biggest fan and I hope we're going to see him and his squad to overcome that obstacle this time around in 2025 playoffs.

Murray scored 18 PPG on 48% TS in the TWolves series

he scored 35 points on 60% TS in the most important game of the series.

In the first 3 losses Murray shot:
6-14
3-18
4-18

Maybe if he wasn’t so trash in those losses they wouldn’t have needed a game 7.

[Special_Puppy]

He's healthy enough to play 43 minutes and scored 35 points against the Wolves in Game 7 last playoffs. They got outplayed in the 2nd half and allowed the biggest comeback in Game 7 history being up by 20 in the 3rd quarter while Jokic was -23 in the 2nd half. It is what it is, Joker is 0-5 in a playoffs series against any team who won atleast 50 games for his entire career. Don't get me wrong, I'm one of his biggest fan and I hope we're going to see him and his squad to overcome that obstacle this time around in 2025 playoffs.

Murray scored 18 PPG on 48% TS in the TWolves series

he scored 35 points on 60% TS in the most important game of the series.

That 18 PPG on 48% TS number includes game 7

[AleksandarN]

And Murray has been that version of himself twice in the past 5 postseasons. And Denver reached the WCF and won a chip in the other one.
That tells you what would happen if Jokic always played with an all star.

Yeah Murray averaged 26 5 7 during the playoffs title run. That’s all star numbers. Give Jokic a healthy Murray then you will see.

He's healthy enough to play 43 minutes and scored 35 points against the Wolves in Game 7 last playoffs. They got outplayed in the 2nd half and allowed the biggest comeback in Game 7 history being up by 20 in the 3rd quarter while Jokic was -23 in the 2nd half. It is what it is, Joker is 0-5 in a playoffs series against any team who won atleast 50 games for his entire career. Don't get me wrong, I'm one of his biggest fan and I hope we're going to see him and his squad to overcome that obstacle this time around in 2025 playoffs.

Jokic scored 21 pts 4 Rebs 2 asts in the second half of that game. No one else showed up that game other Murray and jokic. Btw jokic played the whole second half without rest either. Jokic wasn’t the reason they lost game 7. Murray was not 100 percent in the playoffs. Did he shoot well that game sure. But he wasn’t 100 percent. He couldn’t get by pretty much anyone that series. He was slow and playing on an injured calf strain

[RB34]

Joker should be player of the month again, but knowing the NBA they’ll make sure it’s LeBron

Can’t wait to see LeBron fanboys tear down Luka to make LeBron look better. Like with all his other teammates, story as old as time.

[Special_Puppy]

Jokic Advanced Stats

DPM +6.68
Expected EPM +8.8
Actual EPM +8.7
LEBRON +6.75
BPM +14
X-RAPM +8.8

SGA Advanced Stats

DPM +6.26
Expected EPM +8.4
Actual EPM +8.8
LEBRON +6.54
BPM +11.4
X-RAPM +8.0

[Exp0sed]

Jokic Advanced Stats

DPM +6.68
Expected EPM +8.8
Actual EPM +8.7
LEBRON +6.75
BPM +14
X-RAPM +8.8

SGA Advanced Stats

DPM +6.26
Expected EPM +8.4
Actual EPM +8.8
LEBRON +6.54
BPM +11.4
X-RAPM +8.0

interesting, I haven't seen these numbers posted for a while but had a feeling Jokic has closed the gap in the few he was behind in, with him playing at a ridicilous (and extremely impactful) level and SGA with an incredible month but still a little worse than he's been prior to that

so now Jokic is leading in all advanced stats but actual EPM where SGA is a 0.1 better and I suspect Jokic will be leading that too by season's end

SGA is gonna win it ofc, the narrative is very clear but damn...after the Lakers rout Jokic played three truly incredible games wherein the team fell apart as usual every time he got a breather. played great D too vs. the Pacers, Bucks and Pistons. they might have edged out the Bucks game if MPJ hadn't decided to randomly have the worst game of his career and just killed that one

[AussieBuck]

Jokic Advanced Stats

DPM +6.68
Expected EPM +8.8
Actual EPM +8.7
LEBRON +6.75
BPM +14
X-RAPM +8.8

SGA Advanced Stats

DPM +6.26
Expected EPM +8.4
Actual EPM +8.8
LEBRON +6.54
BPM +11.4
X-RAPM +8.0

interesting, I haven't seen these numbers posted for a while but had a feeling Jokic has closed the gap in the few he was behind in, with him playing at a ridicilous (and extremely impactful) level and SGA with an incredible month but still a little worse than he's been prior to that

so now Jokic is leading in all advanced stats but actual EPM where SGA is a 0.1 better and I suspect Jokic will be leading that too by season's end

SGA is gonna win it ofc, the narrative is very clear but damn...after the Lakers rout Jokic played three truly incredible games wherein the team fell apart as usual every time he got a breather. played great D too vs. the Pacers, Bucks and Pistons. they might have edged out the Bucks game if MPJ hadn't decided to randomly have the worst game of his career and just killed that one

He didn't play great D against the Bucks.

[Gatorade Sax]

Another Joker masterclass.

Read on Twitter

Jokic makes doing stuff like this look so easy that people are legitimately taking it for granted at this point. Those numbers, on that efficiency, while going 10-2 and sitting out the entire 4th quarter of numerous games...it's just mind boggling.

**** I love stats.

[RB34]

So now the advanced stats favour Jokic is it purely team record that sways it for SGA? And “fatigue”?

[iggymcfrack]

So now the advanced stats favour Jokic is it purely team record that sways it for SGA? And “fatigue”?

To me the biggest difference is that SGA’s played 58 out of 59 games and Jokic has played 54 out of 60. I think Jokic has a very slight lead on a per game basis, but not enough to make up for missing 5 more games when SGA has been basically flawless.

[RB34]

So now the advanced stats favour Jokic is it purely team record that sways it for SGA? And “fatigue”?

To me the biggest difference is that SGA’s played 58 out of 59 games and Jokic has played 54 out of 60. I think Jokic has a very slight lead on a per game basis, but not enough to make up for missing 5 more games when SGA has been basically flawless.

Availability is the best ability as they say. Though, I think Joker missed a couple for the birth of his child. Not sure if that should be held against him.

[Exp0sed]

So now the advanced stats favour Jokic is it purely team record that sways it for SGA? And “fatigue”?

To me the biggest difference is that SGA’s played 58 out of 59 games and Jokic has played 54 out of 60. I think Jokic has a very slight lead on a per game basis, but not enough to make up for missing 5 more games when SGA has been basically flawless.

Availability is the best ability as they say. Though, I think Joker missed a couple for the birth of his child. Not sure if that should be held against him.

The reason is unimportant, we measure actual production..not "what if's"

I see it the same way btw. Jokic has been better per game and that gap is actually growing but playing 4-5 less games, more than compensates for the small-ish per game gap especially in the context of an historic season from OKC in the win column

[Special_Puppy]

So now the advanced stats favour Jokic is it purely team record that sways it for SGA? And “fatigue”?

To me the biggest difference is that SGA’s played 58 out of 59 games and Jokic has played 54 out of 60. I think Jokic has a very slight lead on a per game basis, but not enough to make up for missing 5 more games when SGA has been basically flawless.

Jokic playing ~1.8 more minutes per game than SGA somewhat closes the gap in playing time

[Jaqua92]

So now the advanced stats favour Jokic is it purely team record that sways it for SGA? And “fatigue”?

Obviously.

[lessthanjake]

So now the advanced stats favour Jokic is it purely team record that sways it for SGA? And “fatigue”?

I don’t know that the advanced stats do clearly favor Jokic though. In “actual EPM,” SGA is at 8.8 while Jokic is at 8.7. In LEBRON, Jokic is at 6.75 while SGA is at 6.54. Am not a huge fan of using DPM to measure things retrospectively, but it has Jokic at 6.7 and SGA at 6.3. Basically, they’re pretty neck-and-neck in impact-box hybrid metrics. Jokic is ahead in box-based metrics like BPM and win shares, though SGA is still at incredibly high levels in those. I think if you look at the overall data picture, Jokic maybe looks slightly ahead (mostly on the back of a decent-sized gap in BPM), but SGA is genuinely close. And that’s no knock on Jokic—his data looks GOAT-level—but rather a reflection of how well SGA is doing.

Overall, I don’t see this as an example where there’s such a gap in advanced metrics that there really needs to be much at all to sway things towards SGA. The data is close enough that it’s all definitely within a margin of error and shouldn’t give us a high degree of certainty that Jokic is more valuable, and so if SGA’s team does historically well (which they currently are doing—with the highest SRS ever) then I think that is definitely enough to sway things and it becomes a pretty easy choice for MVP (even though I think Jokic is the better player).

[Special_Puppy]

So now the advanced stats favour Jokic is it purely team record that sways it for SGA? And “fatigue”?

Obviously.

FWIW Tim MacMahon (who voted in the ESPN MVP Straw poll) explicitly said he voted for SGA because he wasn’t sure Jokic was actually better than SGA this year and so he wanted to give it to the guy who hadn’t won it before and who had the better record

[Special_Puppy]

So now the advanced stats favour Jokic is it purely team record that sways it for SGA? And “fatigue”?

I don’t know that the advanced stats do clearly favor Jokic though. In “actual EPM,” SGA is at 8.8 while Jokic is at 8.7. In LEBRON, Jokic is at 6.75 while SGA is at 6.54. Am not a huge fan of using DPM to measure things retrospectively, but it has Jokic at 6.7 and SGA at 6.3. Basically, they’re pretty neck-and-neck in impact-box hybrid metrics. Jokic is ahead in box-based metrics like BPM and win shares, though SGA is still at incredibly high levels in those. I think if you look at the overall data picture, Jokic maybe looks slightly ahead (mostly on the back of a decent-sized gap in BPM), but SGA is genuinely close. And that’s no knock on Jokic—his data looks GOAT-level—but rather a reflection of how well SGA is doing.

Overall, I don’t see this as an example where there’s such a gap in advanced metrics that there really needs to be much at all to sway things towards SGA. The data is close enough that it’s all definitely within a margin of error and shouldn’t give us a high degree of certainty that Jokic is better, and so if SGA’s team does historically well then I think it’s a pretty easy choice for MVP (even though I think Jokic is the better player).

It’s a pretty easy choice if we think the gap between the Nuggets and the Thunder is because of SGA being more valuable than Jokic. If we think that the gap is because SGA’s supporting cast is better than Jokic’s then team record doesn’t tell us much either way.

[GeorgeSears]

The MVP race is over.

Jokic and the Nuggets have flamed out in every single nationally televised game against a contender this season.

Terrible losses to Celtics x 2, Knicks x 2, Lakers, Cavs x 2, Milwaukee, OKC.

Beyond embarrassing.