Celtics 2025-26, Off-Season/Training Camp Thread

[Celts17Pride]

Last night's Celtics broadcast they said that the 1972-1973 Boston Celtics have the best road record in franchise history with a record of 32-8 and winning percentage of .800 Pct.

This current Boston Celtics team has a record of 24-6 and winning percentage of .800 Pct on the road with 11 games remaining. The remaining games are as follows:

@ Det
@ Mia
@ Brk
@ Utah
@ Port
@ Sac
@ Pho
@ SA
@ Mem
@ NY
@ Orl

If the Celtics keep their focus, it seems to me that there is a decent chance the Celtics finish 9-2 or better and become the best road team in Boston Celtics history.

They sweep and they beat the current best road record in LEAGUE history. Lose one and they tie.

Let's do it!

[ConstableGeneva]

I'm not too prideful to admit I still want an easy path to the ECF/Finals. So give me the Heat or Bulls in R1 then Knicks in R2 to get to Bucks/Cavs in ECF. Not that I don't think we can beat anybody in a 7-game series. I just want the least wear-and-tear on the road to the Finals. At our best, I still take us over anyone other than maybe the Nuggets or Thunder (TBD).

[Fierce1]

I'm not too prideful to admit I still want an easy path to the ECF/Finals. So give me the Heat or Bulls in R1 then Knicks in R2 to get to Bucks/Cavs in ECF. Not that I don't think we can beat anybody in a 7-game series. I just want the least wear-and-tear on the road to the Finals. At our best, I still take us over anyone other than maybe the Nuggets or Thunder (TBD).

Same here.

Where I have a different opinion is against the Nuggets.

I think with the Cs now being able to use the double big effectively, the Nuggets is not that difficult to beat anymore.

Last season I was really afraid of the Nuggets.

OKC is legit.

But their road to the finals just got harder after the moves at the trade deadline.

[ConstableGeneva]

Looking at rest of schedule, not a ton of tough games left -- @DET (2NoB2B w/ travel), v. CLE, v. DEN, v. OKC, @MEM (last game of 6-game West trip), @ORL (2NoB2B w/ travel).

Not important, but 60 games still doable. Cs gotta TCOB though to get to 21-6 rest of the way.

Can the Celtics go 18-5 rest of the way?

We fell against my first predicted tough game. CLE and DEN next.

[phincsfan]

The real season starts tonight.

C's remember they lost to the Cavs and Nuggets the same time last season back to back.

Time to remove that regular season monkey off the back.

[ConstableGeneva]

Looking at rest of schedule, not a ton of tough games left -- @DET (2NoB2B w/ travel), v. CLE, v. DEN, v. OKC, @MEM (last game of 6-game West trip), @ORL (2NoB2B w/ travel).

Not important, but 60 games still doable. Cs gotta TCOB though to get to 21-6 rest of the way.

Can the Celtics go 18-5 rest of the way?

We fell against my first predicted tough game. CLE and DEN next.

So far losing the games I expected to be tough lol. 2 out of 2. Nuggets on Sunday.

[Fierce1]

I'll be happy if the Cs go 16-6 the rest of the way.

18-4 is doable though.

[redslastlaugh]

Noodling around with nba.com team stats database, I see
Celtics are FIRST in NBA on shots from 25-29 ft (33 attempts/g)
Celtics are SECOND TO LAST on shots from 0-5 ft (24 attempts/g)

This is NOT an encouraging statistic in my opinion

https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/shooting?dir=A&sort=Less%20Than%205%20ft.%20FGA

Edit: To elaborate on why this is not encouraging

1. We shoot 66% on shots between 0-5ft generating 132pts per 100 possessions
2. We shoot 37% on shots between 25-29ft generating 111pts per 100 possessions

[ConstableGeneva]

If getting layups and dunks were that easy, Cs would be doing it all the time.

[redslastlaugh]

If you use the nba.com tool I linked you can see year by year how our shot profile has changed.

Under Brad in 2019-20 (bubble year) we got 32 shots <5ft (inside) to 24 shots >25 feet (outside) so the margin was +8 inside looks
Under Ime Udoka in 2021-22 it was 27.5 inside to 23.5 outside so margin was +4 inside
First year under Joe was 27 inside to 28.5 outside so the margin flipped to +1.5 outside shots

And then this year the inside shots are 24 and the outside shots are 33 so the margin now is +9 outside looks

This is just an intentional decision regarding team personnel (Kanter, Rob, Brissett, etc all gone) but also the emphasis on the roll is now for the handler to shoot the 3-ball rather than hit the cutter. And this has flipped the entire Celtics shot chart in 5 years.

If getting layups and dunks were that easy, Cs would be doing it all the time.

[ConstableGeneva]

If you use the nba.com tool I linked you can see year by year how our shot profile has changed.

Under Brad in 2019-20 (bubble year) we got 32 shots <5ft (inside) to 24 shots >25 feet (outside) so the margin was +8 inside looks
Under Ime Udoka in 2022-23 it was 27.5 inside to 23.5 outside so margin was +4 inside
First year under Joe was 27 inside to 28.5 outside so the margin flipped to +1.5 outside shots

And then this year the inside shots are 24 and the outside shots are 33 so the margin now is +9 outside looks

This is just an intentional decision regarding team personnel (Kanter, Rob, Brissett, etc all gone) but also the emphasis on the roll is now for the handler to shoot the 3-ball rather than hit the cutter. And this has flipped the entire Celtics shot chart in 5 years.

If getting layups and dunks were that easy, Cs would be doing it all the time.

With regards to the seasons you're comparing this season to (bubble season, lone Udoka year, and Mazzulla rookie season), the current Celtics team (+5.7) beats all those teams in relative offensive rating (+2.7, +2.4, +3.2). So I think their three-heavy philosophy has produced better results than those 3 previous teams. And we're not even a top-5 three-point shooting team in terms of %.

When at least half of Celtics points have come from 3, they're 14-3. Wish they tried to generate more open threes via ball movement so they could make more of them. Cut down on the one-pass possessions and pullups. I still have no issue with the amount we take.

I also think this shot profile will shift a bit in the postseason. It might be a conscious decision to avoid wear and tear in the paint in the regular season. Tatum for example has historically driven more in the playoffs than he does in regular season.

[redslastlaugh]

Yeah, I hear that and I hope that your right.

What I’ve noticed watching is there’ll be occasions in semi-transition where KP will set a screen for Derrick or Tatum and roll right down the middle before the defense is set and the ball handler will fire the 3-ball rather than hit the cutter. It seems this is a conscious decision to favor 3PTA perhaps thinking KP in the paint alone is gonna have a good chance to rebound a miss, I dunno. I see it as insanity, we are just intentionally declining shots at the rim which are worth tons more analytically than JT or White 3PTA when you play the math out given the FG% differential.

And really I don’t know if the current coaches feel that way.

If JT was wide open at the 3pt line and KP was wide open at the rim, given the choice to shoot or pass, I think current Celtics want JT to shoot the 3 and I just completely, 100% would want the dunk. Anyway, hope ur right and the shots balance out in the postseason

[ConstableGeneva]

Yeah, I hear that and I hope that your right.

What I’ve noticed watching is there’ll be occasions in semi-transition where KP will set a screen for Derrick or Tatum and roll right down the middle before the defense is set and the ball handler will fire the 3-ball rather than hit the cutter. It seems this is a conscious decision to favor 3PTA perhaps thinking KP in the paint alone is gonna have a good chance to rebound a miss, I dunno. I see it as insanity, we are just intentionally declining shots at the rim which are worth tons more analytically than JT or White 3PTA when you play the math out given the FG% differential.

And really I don’t know if the current coaches feel that way.

If JT was wide open at the 3pt line and KP was wide open at the rim, given the choice to shoot or pass, I think current Celtics want JT to shoot the 3 and I just completely, 100% would want the dunk. Anyway, hope ur right and the shots balance out in the postseason

Wish we had film for this and the amount of times this has happened. What I've noticed is teams tend to converge more in the paint on rollers and that's why wings/corners are open for the kickout (happens all the time with Luke). I don't think teams will regularly have KP roll without anyone there to meet him. Teams also usually play drop or switch on Tatum. Even when KP rolls, a small is on him. Rarely have I seen him "wide open for a dunk."

[threrf23]

I also think this shot profile will shift a bit in the postseason. It might be a conscious decision to avoid wear and tear in the paint in the regular season. Tatum for example has historically driven more in the playoffs than he does in regular season.

Reminds of this

Article was about Tillman but this was interesting…

Boston doesn’t want Tillman to drive close-outs. They want him to shoot the ball. And it’s been an ongoing mental battle.

“It's really hard,” Tillman said with a smile. “And it's actually hilarious because there'd be so many opportunities where we'd be in a live read, and I would do that. I would catch it, and the guy would closeout, and I'd go right by him. And then they'd stop it after I made the layup, and they say, 'No, no, no, you're supposed to shoot that.' And I'm like, 'What? I had him. I saw his feet were out of place.' And they're like, 'That's not the point. The point is to be an unconscious shooter.'

Source: https://hardwoodhoudini.com/boston-celtics-xavier-tillman-mental-hurdles-three-pointers-dj-macleay-basketball-memphis-grizzlies

[redslastlaugh]

Last playoffs Tillman was one of the most effective players from a net rating perspective. I know he’s hurt this year and the injury may have zapped his effectiveness but I’d rather a player shoot zero threes if the Celtics are winning his minutes.

I always think of the Heat series in 2023 where Bam didn’t shoot any 3PTA but was +10 per 100 possessions net rating over the series whereas Al Horford shot like >25 3PTA but was a -4 per 100 or something in net rating for the series.

I thought every coach would favor netrating over 3PTA rate because you can shoot more threes and lose but you can’t win net rating and lose.

Anyway, it’s like beating a dead horse because Joe gave that interview to the Athletic and he said, “three pt attempt rate is the most important stat in basketball,” so that’s how Joe sees it.

I also think this shot profile will shift a bit in the postseason. It might be a conscious decision to avoid wear and tear in the paint in the regular season. Tatum for example has historically driven more in the playoffs than he does in regular season.

Reminds of this

Article was about Tillman but this was interesting…

Boston doesn’t want Tillman to drive close-outs. They want him to shoot the ball. And it’s been an ongoing mental battle.

“It's really hard,” Tillman said with a smile. “And it's actually hilarious because there'd be so many opportunities where we'd be in a live read, and I would do that. I would catch it, and the guy would closeout, and I'd go right by him. And then they'd stop it after I made the layup, and they say, 'No, no, no, you're supposed to shoot that.' And I'm like, 'What? I had him. I saw his feet were out of place.' And they're like, 'That's not the point. The point is to be an unconscious shooter.'

Source: https://hardwoodhoudini.com/boston-celtics-xavier-tillman-mental-hurdles-three-pointers-dj-macleay-basketball-memphis-grizzlies

[ConstableGeneva]

What an odd way to make a point. Bam didn't shoot threes 'cos he's bad at it. Horford extended his career by being a profilic three-point shooter. It would be bad basketball if Celtics force-fed Horford in the post at his age. I would bet their net rating in that series had very little to do whether one took threes and the other didn't.

Net Rating is also an unreliable stat for small samples. Tillman in the postseason is too small a sample to make any type of significant conclusions.

Last playoffs Tillman was one of the most effective players from a net rating perspective. I know he’s hurt this year and the injury may have zapped his effectiveness but I’d rather a player shoot zero threes if the Celtics are winning his minutes.

I always think of the Heat series in 2023 where Bam didn’t shoot any 3PTA but was +10 per 100 possessions netrating over the series whereas Al Horford shot like >25 3PTA but was a -4 per 100 or something in net rating for the series.

I thought every coach would favor netrating over 3PTA rate because you can shoot more threes and lose but you can’t win net rating and lose.

Anyway, it’s like beating a dead horse because Joe gave that interview to the Athletic and he said, “three pt attempt rate is the most important stat in basketball,” so that’s how Joe sees it.

I also think this shot profile will shift a bit in the postseason. It might be a conscious decision to avoid wear and tear in the paint in the regular season. Tatum for example has historically driven more in the playoffs than he does in regular season.

Reminds of this

Article was about Tillman but this was interesting…



Source: https://hardwoodhoudini.com/boston-celtics-xavier-tillman-mental-hurdles-three-pointers-dj-macleay-basketball-memphis-grizzlies

[redslastlaugh]

I think I’m just bad at making points, lol
I don’t care if any player shoots threes or not if he’s effective in his minutes
Whether that’s Rob Williams or Dennis Rodman or Giannis or Bam Adebayo or whoever… that’s all

The point I was making is that Al attempted 29 threes and Bam shot zero threes but Bam played better than Al that series because there are other components to winning basketball outside of who shot more 3PT attempts…

[ConstableGeneva]

I do agree though that they're misusing Tillman in Boston. They're trying to turn him into Grant Williams when he's still at his best as a screener and short roll playmaker. I don't think Cs are maximizing his skills having him stationed in the corner for kickouts.

Looks like his knee's messed up anyway and he's now 13th or 14th on the call sheet.

[threrf23]

I actually imagine we could be confusing a specific player development strategy with an organizational philosophy, in Tillman's particular instance.

The whole subject has been beaten to death, but I will say if not reiterate that I think the two point shot has become underrated. A made shot is a made shot and it confers benefits independent of what immediately shows on the scoreboard. Likewise, a timely shot is a timely shot, and there are various occasions where you need a timely shot more than you need an extra point. Conventional modern analytics say that shooting 40% from 3 is comparable to shooting 60% from 2; I don't buy it. 60% from inside the arc is clearly preferable, IMO.

IMO the three ball is a gamble, the stakes are higher win or lose, and there are situations when it makes sense to play things more conservative.

There is also the issue of organizational culture. At this point the three ball is a strength of ours and will be a strength of ours, there are other things we need to master if we want to be unbeatable.

[ConstableGeneva]

2018 Warriors: had a 7-10 stretch
2010 Lakers: had a 4-8 stretch and an 8-7 stretch
2002 Lakers: had a 9-10 stretch
2001 Lakers: had a 14-11 stretch and a 7-7 stretch
1998 Bulls: had a 12-9 stretch

2025 Celtics: had an 11-10 stretch

Repeat champs aren't really that "dominant" for an entire season. Five of the most recent six had similar stretches Cs had this season. This team will still be judged in the postseason. Get there healthy.