2024-25 NBA DPOY and All-Defense discussion

[cupcakesnake]

DPOY has nothing to do with steals, it's about how much you lift your team's defense. It's not defensive stopper of the year. Bigs who block a lot of shots but disappoint as team defenders don't make it either.

Sorry but there are tons of people who if they were allowed to just go for every steal they would break records. That's easily possible if your team defense doesn't matter to anyone.

It's an interesting experiment but if Daniels was treated to the Rockets he would get benched very quickly for gambling so much. The only way you can reward this is if it turns out he's so exceptional at it that for once a stealer shifted the defense. It didn't happen so I don't understand what valid argument there is for him to even be in the top 5.

The definition of empty stat. As far as we know he may be the all time leader in missing steals and letting his team'sv defense collapse. Seems highly likely because someone has to explain how 5-6 steals is having no net impact on their team.

People really have to stop just assuming, because he gets a lot of steals, that he's just gambling and getting out of position to pad the stat.

Should we forget that we have known for decades that steals are not well correlated to defense?

If there's DPOY level impact from 3 steals, feel free to provide evidence. We're just treating steals the way we've always treated them.

There is a certain kind of player that over gambles for steals and leave the defense exposed. Iverson was the poster boy for this, but honestly MJ was extremely guilty of doing it too.

But that doesn't mean you throw steals out. A steal means you ended an offensive possessions by your opponent. That's a very good thing, objectively. As long as you aren't sacrificing other stuff that leading to the other team scoring more. Dyson gets a ton of steals on the ball because he has elite hands, and incredible focus. His steals are very disciplined in that he put his hands where the ball has to be dribbled, basically keeping a trap there for the ball handler.

Writing steals off defensively, is at least as stupid as someone assuming steals=good defense. You've swung too far back in the other direction and are leaning on a discourse from the early 2000s.

There is a stat called raDTOV (regularized adjusted turnovers) that some people prefer. Dyson is 11th in the league at that stat. He also leads the league in deflection rate (or night to night it changes with Caruso). In terms of perimeter defenders, Dyson is very clearly one of the best.

If you aren't watching Daniels much, you can watch all his steals https://shotcreator.com/videos/nba?ssps[league_id]=1&ssps[season]=2024-25&ssps[season_type]=Regular+Season&ssps[player_id]=UZlqbTj0628&ssps[stats][0]=stl] and decide if you think his steals dont correlate with good defense.

[kg01]

DPOY has nothing to do with steals, it's about how much you lift your team's defense. It's not defensive stopper of the year. Bigs who block a lot of shots but disappoint as team defenders don't make it either.

Sorry but there are tons of people who if they were allowed to just go for every steal they would break records. That's easily possible if your team defense doesn't matter to anyone.

It's an interesting experiment but if Daniels was treated to the Rockets he would get benched very quickly for gambling so much. The only way you can reward this is if it turns out he's so exceptional at it that for once a stealer shifted the defense. It didn't happen so I don't understand what valid argument there is for him to even be in the top 5.

The definition of empty stat. As far as we know he may be the all time leader in missing steals and letting his team'sv defense collapse. Seems highly likely because someone has to explain how 5-6 steals is having no net impact on their team.

People really have to stop just assuming, because he gets a lot of steals, that he's just gambling and getting out of position to pad the stat.

Should we forget that we have known for decades that steals are not well correlated to defense?

If there's DPOY level impact from 3 steals, feel free to provide evidence. We're just treating steals the way we've always treated them.

Literally no one is saying "because he gets steals, he is therefore a great defender". Just stop.

[yoyoboy]

I think the idea is that steals aren’t valuable enough on their own to be used as the crux of the argument why Daniels deserves to be in the DPOY discussion, when most other evidence doesn’t point to him having elite impact on defense.

Daniels ON: 116.7 DRTG
Daniels OFF: 111.1 DRTG

With Daniels on the court, the Hawks play at the level of the 28th ranked defense in the league. And then you can say, okay, well Trae Young is one of the worst defenders in the league. Maybe he shares the court with him a lot, so his impact is bogged down by Young being a total liability.

Daniels On, Young On: 116.6 DRTG
Daniels On, Young Off: 116.7 DRTG

Doesn’t seem to make a difference though. You can argue that Dyson is a victim of poor opponent shooting luck because opposing teams shoot 37.9% from three with him on and 34.7% from three with him off. Even if you discount that disparity as total noise, and then subtract an estimated defensive PPP from the extra opponent offensive rebounding opportunities, that would still only “explain” 3.2 points from the Hawks’ DRTG being 6.6 points worse with Daniels on the court. And again, I’m being charitable by assuming opponent 3P% is a totally random variable defenders have no control over.

We can look at the all-in-one impact metrics too:

3.5yr DRAPM: 252nd
DVPM: 43rd
Def LEBRON: 27th
Def MAMBA: 19th
Def DPM: 91st
Def EPM: 16th
DBPM: 6th

It’s no surprise the ones that incorporate more from the box-score (like EPM and BPM) look more favorably upon Dyson’s impact, considering his steals rate, whereas the more lineup data centric ones (RAPM for instance) are more bearish.

We could delve into the tracking data and film as well. But just from a cursory glance, I’m very hesitant already to give a perimeter player the DPOY crown when we know that being able to protect the rim is the most valuable aspect of defense. And perimeter guys aren’t providing as much of that compared to the elite defensive bigs, so they have to really make up for elsewhere while potentially also offering at least some rim protection impact as well. And then I’m even LESS inclined to believe in the perimeter guy’s case when the impact metrics aren’t screaming that this player is a top-tier defender and when his team is horrible on defense when he’s on the court.

[cupcakesnake]

I've been saying only nice things about Dyson, but I don't think he's the DPOY. I'd throw him on an all-defense team, but I have almost all the elite defensive bigs and some wings ahead of him.

I think he's the best POA guy this year, but POA guys on poor defensive teams rarely make a big impact. You can essentially work around an elite POA guy if there isn't strong help defense behind him. Attack with a different player or force a switch.

This is one of the reasons great help defenders are more valuable than great man defenders. People only think otherwise because we watch the ball, so we see all the man defense, and help defense is invisible unless it comes into contact with the ball, or unless you're really watching. A strong help defender is going to mess up offenses all over the floor all night, a strong man defender can be walked into the corner and taken out of the play.

[xxSnEaKyPxx]

Read on Twitter

[Sane]

People really have to stop just assuming, because he gets a lot of steals, that he's just gambling and getting out of position to pad the stat.

Should we forget that we have known for decades that steals are not well correlated to defense?

If there's DPOY level impact from 3 steals, feel free to provide evidence. We're just treating steals the way we've always treated them.

Literally no one is saying "because he gets steals, he is therefore a great defender". Just stop.

Oh shut up, 2 posts above mine was saying he should be DPOY.

If you didn't say it and you didn't read it, what on earth are you doing acting like you know no one has ever said such a thing?

Do you honestly believe no one has said he's a great defender after seeing high steal totals? Do you think there's any chance that's true? Did you just join this board yesterady?

[Sane]

People really have to stop just assuming, because he gets a lot of steals, that he's just gambling and getting out of position to pad the stat.

Should we forget that we have known for decades that steals are not well correlated to defense?

If there's DPOY level impact from 3 steals, feel free to provide evidence. We're just treating steals the way we've always treated them.

There is a certain kind of player that over gambles for steals and leave the defense exposed. Iverson was the poster boy for this, but honestly MJ was extremely guilty of doing it too.

But that doesn't mean you throw steals out. A steal means you ended an offensive possessions by your opponent. That's a very good thing, objectively. As long as you aren't sacrificing other stuff that leading to the other team scoring more. Dyson gets a ton of steals on the ball because he has elite hands, and incredible focus. His steals are very disciplined in that he put his hands where the ball has to be dribbled, basically keeping a trap there for the ball handler.

Writing steals off defensively, is at least as stupid as someone assuming steals=good defense. You've swung too far back in the other direction and are leaning on a discourse from the early 2000s.

There is a stat called raDTOV (regularized adjusted turnovers) that some people prefer. Dyson is 11th in the league at that stat. He also leads the league in deflection rate (or night to night it changes with Caruso). In terms of perimeter defenders, Dyson is very clearly one of the best.

If you aren't watching Daniels much, you can watch all his steals https://shotcreator.com/videos/nba?ssps[league_id]=1&ssps[season]=2024-25&ssps[season_type]=Regular+Season&ssps[player_id]=UZlqbTj0628&ssps[stats][0]=stl] and decide if you think his steals dont correlate with good defense.

No one is writing steals off, in fact I 100% agree with your whole theory.

All I'm saying is: if we're going to say Daniels is the outlier and his steals are actually very efficient (high steals per attempted steal) ones leading to defensive and net impact, then we have to prove that. It's never been proven, if you're going to take away salary from other players who can make more money from DPOY, you have to prove that's happening.

I've been clear: we don't KNOW if that's happening. I'm not saying it's not happening. I'm not saying it can't happen or steals have zero value. I'm just saying - as has always been the case - if he's to be up for DPOY someone has to actually sit down and manually do the math of is he the most efficient stealer ever or is his team losing just as much on these gambles as it's gaining? Is the team defense gaining or losing on this bet?

I've also already stated he's an elite perimeter defender, no disagreement there. That's not sufficient to win a DPOY. To be DPOY you have to impact the whole team's defense. I want Dyson to be the guy who shattered the glass ceiling on this.

All the big man DPOY candidates are nailing the exact metrics that show impact on team's defense. They don't get the benefit of taking 3-4 supplementary stats (deflections, etc) and pasting them together and forming a guess about whether it impacts the whole team's defense directly. No, they actually do what a DPOY does, it's clear as day and they have to pass that test. I want a similar test for wings, but more suited to their skills.

I don't mind opening that up to wings and this is a perfect opportunity but people are taking it so personally instead of looking at it as (1) an unknown right now and (2) an opportunity to compile the actual data and forever wings will have an opportunity to be in the DPOY conversation.

Till then, you and me know for a fact that JJJ improves almost any team's defense. We do not actually know that about Daniels. That's not unfair to say.

[bstein14]

2025-26 1st team all defense...

Wemby
JJJ
Mobley
Amen Thompson
Ausar Thompson

Ausar with 5 steals again last night before getting injured. Detroit a top 3 or 4 defense in the league over the past month. Held Boston to the fewest 2 point field goal makes in team history with just 12. Dyson Daniels and some of these other guys are impressive but man those 5 guys right there are where its at.

[Ticket]

2025-26 1st team all defense...

Wemby
JJJ
Mobley
Amen Thompson
Ausar Thompson

Ausar with 5 steals again last night before getting injured. Detroit a top 3 or 4 defense in the league over the past month. Held Boston to the fewest 2 point field goal makes in team history with just 12. Dyson Daniels and some of these other guys are impressive but man those 5 guys right there are where its at.

Ausar and Wemby can't make it to 65 games. Didn't you get the memo?

[bstein14]

2025-26 1st team all defense...

Wemby
JJJ
Mobley
Amen Thompson
Ausar Thompson

Ausar with 5 steals again last night before getting injured. Detroit a top 3 or 4 defense in the league over the past month. Held Boston to the fewest 2 point field goal makes in team history with just 12. Dyson Daniels and some of these other guys are impressive but man those 5 guys right there are where its at.

Ausar and Wemby can't make it to 65 games. Didn't you get the memo?

Look at the year...

[Ticket]

2025-26 1st team all defense...

Wemby
JJJ
Mobley
Amen Thompson
Ausar Thompson

Ausar with 5 steals again last night before getting injured. Detroit a top 3 or 4 defense in the league over the past month. Held Boston to the fewest 2 point field goal makes in team history with just 12. Dyson Daniels and some of these other guys are impressive but man those 5 guys right there are where its at.

Ausar and Wemby can't make it to 65 games. Didn't you get the memo?

Look at the year... Didn't you learn how to read?

Woops ... my bad

[cupcakesnake]

Should we forget that we have known for decades that steals are not well correlated to defense?

If there's DPOY level impact from 3 steals, feel free to provide evidence. We're just treating steals the way we've always treated them.

There is a certain kind of player that over gambles for steals and leave the defense exposed. Iverson was the poster boy for this, but honestly MJ was extremely guilty of doing it too.

But that doesn't mean you throw steals out. A steal means you ended an offensive possessions by your opponent. That's a very good thing, objectively. As long as you aren't sacrificing other stuff that leading to the other team scoring more. Dyson gets a ton of steals on the ball because he has elite hands, and incredible focus. His steals are very disciplined in that he put his hands where the ball has to be dribbled, basically keeping a trap there for the ball handler.

Writing steals off defensively, is at least as stupid as someone assuming steals=good defense. You've swung too far back in the other direction and are leaning on a discourse from the early 2000s.

There is a stat called raDTOV (regularized adjusted turnovers) that some people prefer. Dyson is 11th in the league at that stat. He also leads the league in deflection rate (or night to night it changes with Caruso). In terms of perimeter defenders, Dyson is very clearly one of the best.

If you aren't watching Daniels much, you can watch all his steals https://shotcreator.com/videos/nba?ssps[league_id]=1&ssps[season]=2024-25&ssps[season_type]=Regular+Season&ssps[player_id]=UZlqbTj0628&ssps[stats][0]=stl] and decide if you think his steals dont correlate with good defense.

No one is writing steals off, in fact I 100% agree with your whole theory.

All I'm saying is: if we're going to say Daniels is the outlier and his steals are actually very efficient (high steals per attempted steal) ones leading to defensive and net impact, then we have to prove that. It's never been proven, if you're going to take away salary from other players who can make more money from DPOY, you have to prove that's happening.

I've been clear: we don't KNOW if that's happening. I'm not saying it's not happening. I'm not saying it can't happen or steals have zero value. I'm just saying - as has always been the case - if he's to be up for DPOY someone has to actually sit down and manually do the math of is he the most efficient stealer ever or is his team losing just as much on these gambles as it's gaining? Is the team defense gaining or losing on this bet?

I've also already stated he's an elite perimeter defender, no disagreement there. That's not sufficient to win a DPOY. To be DPOY you have to impact the whole team's defense. I want Dyson to be the guy who shattered the glass ceiling on this.

All the big man DPOY candidates are nailing the exact metrics that show impact on team's defense. They don't get the benefit of taking 3-4 supplementary stats (deflections, etc) and pasting them together and forming a guess about whether it impacts the whole team's defense directly. No, they actually do what a DPOY does, it's clear as day and they have to pass that test. I want a similar test for wings, but more suited to their skills.

I don't mind opening that up to wings and this is a perfect opportunity but people are taking it so personally instead of looking at it as (1) an unknown right now and (2) an opportunity to compile the actual data and forever wings will have an opportunity to be in the DPOY conversation.

Till then, you and me know for a fact that JJJ improves almost any team's defense. We do not actually know that about Daniels. That's not unfair to say.

Ok, I don't think we have much disagreement overall. I was reacting to the steals comments, but in the bigger picture we're pretty aligned.

I don't think a POA defender will ever be an anchor, for reasons I've stated, and is vulnerable to weak impact numbers on a bad defensive team, where the opponent can choose to simply avoid him to attack weaker points of the defense. Unlike a mobile long big, Dyson is guarding one spot on the floor rather than being seemingly everywhere.

POA defenders are more ceiling than floor raisers in that sense. Add a ballhawk to a solid backline, and you can boost defensive pressure and playmaking and put that defense over the top. Without the backline, and you end up this fairly random source of pressure, floating out there in the nothingness. It's trouble to be near Dyson with the ball in your hands, but they can't scheme to keep Dyson near the ball so his impact can't be consistent. He's disruptive off the ball, but he's not quite Alex Caruso with his help defense. Caruso might be the only guy like this we've seen anchor a defense.

I could see someone like Dyson making a strong DPOY bid if he was the feature defender on a defense that had a solid but unspectacular backline. Suggs is sort of in that situation. No one is giving Goga and WCJ DPOY votes, but they hold it down enough for Suggs's aggressiveness to not have consequences.

Sometimes when people push to give DPOY to a ballhawking guard, it feels like giving the NHL Vezina trophy (best goaltender) to a defensemen. It's really hard to equal the value of the guy who's main job is stopping layups and drives after breakdowns. Though we're in an era with some fantastic guard defenders bring serious help defense.

[MoreyWins]

Read on Twitter

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[MoreyWins]

The lack of Amen buzz is crazy. He's everything a fan would want in a DPOY candidate. Elite POA and elite off ball. He's an absolute terror to see checked in. He has some of the most spectacular defensive highlights in the league.

[benhillboy]

The lack of Amen buzz is crazy. He's everything a fan would want in a DPOY candidate. Elite POA and elite off ball. He's an absolute terror to see checked in. He has some of the most spectacular defensive highlights in the league.

He and Draymond are my favs for DPOY after the Warriors tear through the rest of their schedule.

I watch a lot of Dyson. Shut down dudes like Ant, Brunson, Mitchell, Lilliard, and Herro (much lesser but still) nearly possession for possession. He’s flat out awesome and should be a shoe-in for All Defense. But like some have stated the team impact over the course of a season just isn’t there with him on DPOY level.

[Kiss of Death]

Read on Twitter

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[cupcakesnake]

Amen is already looking like a rare type of defensive anchor: a wing who can pressure the ball and drop back into all kinds of off-ball playmaking and disruption.

Ausar is kind of getting forgotten a bit, as he's dealt with injuries this year. I'm not convinced Amen is the better defender of the twins. Ausar has been been a massive defensive anchor for Detroit this year. He doesn't play with as many plus defenders as Amen, so he doesn't get to play quite as aggressively. If you wonder how in the hell Detroit has a borderline top 10 defense despite playing a weak rim protector in Duren, and several guys who are just out there for shooting... look no further than the Ausar minutes.

Amen is the more athletic of the twins though. Twitchier, burstier, more vertical. Browsing over the 2025 numbers, Amen is a bit more impressive? The rim defense and the ball pressure is so good. Just don't sleep on his twin, either. Ausar is more disruptive in most help situations. He's more adept in the passing lanes, and forces even more turnovers. They might be the top 2 wing defenders of the next decade, and they might be already?

[breezypeezy]

I think the wrong Thompson is in the poll.

[cupcakesnake]

I think the wrong Thompson is in the poll.

Ausar isn't going to meet the games played threshold, and is averaging 21.4mpg. He's not a viable candidate for the award this year, but he's clearly one of the biggest defensive talents in the league.

[epfou1]

There is a certain kind of player that over gambles for steals and leave the defense exposed. Iverson was the poster boy for this, but honestly MJ was extremely guilty of doing it too.

But that doesn't mean you throw steals out. A steal means you ended an offensive possessions by your opponent. That's a very good thing, objectively. As long as you aren't sacrificing other stuff that leading to the other team scoring more. Dyson gets a ton of steals on the ball because he has elite hands, and incredible focus. His steals are very disciplined in that he put his hands where the ball has to be dribbled, basically keeping a trap there for the ball handler.

Writing steals off defensively, is at least as stupid as someone assuming steals=good defense. You've swung too far back in the other direction and are leaning on a discourse from the early 2000s.

There is a stat called raDTOV (regularized adjusted turnovers) that some people prefer. Dyson is 11th in the league at that stat. He also leads the league in deflection rate (or night to night it changes with Caruso). In terms of perimeter defenders, Dyson is very clearly one of the best.

If you aren't watching Daniels much, you can watch all his steals https://shotcreator.com/videos/nba?ssps[league_id]=1&ssps[season]=2024-25&ssps[season_type]=Regular+Season&ssps[player_id]=UZlqbTj0628&ssps[stats][0]=stl] and decide if you think his steals dont correlate with good defense.

No one is writing steals off, in fact I 100% agree with your whole theory.

All I'm saying is: if we're going to say Daniels is the outlier and his steals are actually very efficient (high steals per attempted steal) ones leading to defensive and net impact, then we have to prove that. It's never been proven, if you're going to take away salary from other players who can make more money from DPOY, you have to prove that's happening.

I've been clear: we don't KNOW if that's happening. I'm not saying it's not happening. I'm not saying it can't happen or steals have zero value. I'm just saying - as has always been the case - if he's to be up for DPOY someone has to actually sit down and manually do the math of is he the most efficient stealer ever or is his team losing just as much on these gambles as it's gaining? Is the team defense gaining or losing on this bet?

I've also already stated he's an elite perimeter defender, no disagreement there. That's not sufficient to win a DPOY. To be DPOY you have to impact the whole team's defense. I want Dyson to be the guy who shattered the glass ceiling on this.

All the big man DPOY candidates are nailing the exact metrics that show impact on team's defense. They don't get the benefit of taking 3-4 supplementary stats (deflections, etc) and pasting them together and forming a guess about whether it impacts the whole team's defense directly. No, they actually do what a DPOY does, it's clear as day and they have to pass that test. I want a similar test for wings, but more suited to their skills.

I don't mind opening that up to wings and this is a perfect opportunity but people are taking it so personally instead of looking at it as (1) an unknown right now and (2) an opportunity to compile the actual data and forever wings will have an opportunity to be in the DPOY conversation.

Till then, you and me know for a fact that JJJ improves almost any team's defense. We do not actually know that about Daniels. That's not unfair to say.

Ok, I don't think we have much disagreement overall. I was reacting to the steals comments, but in the bigger picture we're pretty aligned.

I don't think a POA defender will ever be an anchor, for reasons I've stated, and is vulnerable to weak impact numbers on a bad defensive team, where the opponent can choose to simply avoid him to attack weaker points of the defense. Unlike a mobile long big, Dyson is guarding one spot on the floor rather than being seemingly everywhere.

POA defenders are more ceiling than floor raisers in that sense. Add a ballhawk to a solid backline, and you can boost defensive pressure and playmaking and put that defense over the top. Without the backline, and you end up this fairly random source of pressure, floating out there in the nothingness. It's trouble to be near Dyson with the ball in your hands, but they can't scheme to keep Dyson near the ball so his impact can't be consistent. He's disruptive off the ball, but he's not quite Alex Caruso with his help defense. Caruso might be the only guy like this we've seen anchor a defense.

I could see someone like Dyson making a strong DPOY bid if he was the feature defender on a defense that had a solid but unspectacular backline. Suggs is sort of in that situation. No one is giving Goga and WCJ DPOY votes, but they hold it down enough for Suggs's aggressiveness to not have consequences.

Sometimes when people push to give DPOY to a ballhawking guard, it feels like giving the NHL Vezina trophy (best goaltender) to a defensemen. It's really hard to equal the value of the guy who's main job is stopping layups and drives after breakdowns. Though we're in an era with some fantastic guard defenders bring serious help defense.

I feel like rim protectors gets way too much credit for being defensively good. It is an easier position to play. They are in the paint / under the ring 90% of the time, where the likes of Daniels picks up his opponent at half court. Has to fight through screens. Has constantly be on the move to the wing, follows his opponent that flashes to the basket and back to the top of the key. He is working harder than the big man rim protector, and still dominates the deflections and steals compared to the next player on the list.

I don't care if the Hawks aren't good defensively. Its an individual award and he should get recognize in the final voting for the all time season he is having.