Paolo for…?

Last Guardian · Post #21 » by **Last Guardian** » Mon Mar 3, 2025 4:06 pm

Kessler and Markannen. Replace Paolo with an arguably a better offensive player and no worse a defender, and give us a true elite rim protector and rebounder.

89Magicfan · Post #22 » by **89Magicfan** » Mon Mar 3, 2025 4:19 pm

AdamTheGreek wrote:
Knightro wrote:
eyriq wrote:Co-signed

He might not ever even be an all-star again!

He would’ve been an All-Star this season had he not gotten hurt (same as Franz).

Man posted a 50-point near triple-double and then got hurt the next game. That’s not a mirage.

You aren’t going to convince them. Just sit back, grab some popcorn and watch the **** show.

Bergmaniac · Post #23 » by **Bergmaniac** » Mon Mar 3, 2025 4:23 pm

Rainwater wrote:
Knightro wrote:
eyriq wrote:Co-signed

He might not ever even be an all-star again!

I would be shocked if this happened.

It's quite unlikely, but more likely than him winning an MVP award. Winning the MVP is extremely hard.

Post #24 » by **eyriq** » Mon Mar 3, 2025 4:34 pm

Knightro wrote:
eyriq wrote:
AdamTheGreek wrote:No one, he’s the next American NBA MVP.
Co-signed

He might not ever even be an all-star again!

Extremely doubtful. He's already as good as Randle in his prime and that alone is good enough for All NBA 3rd team honors.

Post #25 » by **Knightro** » Mon Mar 3, 2025 4:39 pm

I'm being sarcastic about Paolo never being an all-star again, but the idea of him being an MVP is absolutely laughable.

He's not even the best player on his own team. I'd put his career MVP odds at like 0.0001% or something like that.

Post #26 » by **eyriq** » Mon Mar 3, 2025 4:44 pm

Knightro wrote:I'm being sarcastic about Paolo never being an all-star again, but the idea of him being an MVP is absolutely laughable.

He's not even the best player on his own team. I'd put his career MVP odds at like 0.0001% or something like that.

Melo was in the top five at his peak. I could see Paolo surpassing Melo due to playmaking, rebounding, and defense.

89Magicfan · Post #27 » by **89Magicfan** » Mon Mar 3, 2025 4:47 pm

eyriq wrote:
Knightro wrote:I'm being sarcastic about Paolo never being an all-star again, but the idea of him being an MVP is absolutely laughable.

He's not even the best player on his own team. I'd put his career MVP odds at like 0.0001% or something like that.
Melo was in the top five at his peak. I could see Paolo surpassing Melo due to playmaking, rebounding, and defense.

Me too and why I think these conversations are silly. Anyone who’s watched Melo in his prime can see the difference.

OrlChamps2030 · Post #28 » by **OrlChamps2030** » Mon Mar 3, 2025 4:55 pm

Reminder: 3 years in and the best PG (and only PG?) Paolo has played with is Markelle Fultz

Jeff Weltman is a basketball terrorist.

ORLMagicGirl15 · Post #29 » by **ORLMagicGirl15** » Mon Mar 3, 2025 4:58 pm

Absolutely not.

Post #30 » by **eyriq** » Mon Mar 3, 2025 5:07 pm

89Magicfan wrote:
eyriq wrote:
Knightro wrote:I'm being sarcastic about Paolo never being an all-star again, but the idea of him being an MVP is absolutely laughable.

He's not even the best player on his own team. I'd put his career MVP odds at like 0.0001% or something like that.
Melo was in the top five at his peak. I could see Paolo surpassing Melo due to playmaking, rebounding, and defense.

Me too and why I think these conversations are silly. Anyone who’s watched Melo in his prime can see the difference. It’s a lazy comp.

If I think about big, versatile forwards that are similar to Paolo and I put them into tiers I'd go something like:

Tier 1: LeBron
Tier 2: Tatum/Webber/Melo/Blake
Tier 3: Randle/Siakam

He's already in tier 3.

Post #31 » by **Knightro** » Mon Mar 3, 2025 5:07 pm

eyriq wrote:Melo was in the top five at his peak. I could see Paolo surpassing Melo due to playmaking, rebounding, and defense.

Carmelo finished distantly third in MVP one time in his 19 year NBA career, man. Never finished top 5 in any of his other 18 NBA seasons.

Paolo's also a much worse player than Carmelo is btw. And this is a classic example of why you should never compare guys from clearly different eras.

Carmelo was a .545 TS% guy for the Nuggets and Knicks. On paper that doesn't seem all that special, as Paolo topped .545 in just his second NBA season.

But back in Melo's prime period (2004-2017) the league was far less efficient overall. Teams didn't take threes and it was *significantly* more difficult to score at the rim because there was less space.

NBA teams averaged just 20 3PT attempts a night in 2013 (the year Melo finished 3rd in MVP), with almost 2/3rd of the league attempting fewer than 20 3PT shots a game. Now teams average 37.5 3PT shots a night.

And because of all the space being provided by all of these 3PT attempts, FG% at the rim has also spiked from .636 in 2013 to .694 now.

With all that being factored in, Melo was actually an above average offensive talent for his era in terms of efficiency.

The NBA average TS% is now .574 and Paolo's at .525. He's miles and miles below where the league is currently. He has a 2005 style of play in 2025.

JoshuaPotter · Post #32 » by **JoshuaPotter** » Mon Mar 3, 2025 5:24 pm

I thought we were kidding around, some of these comments are gold, some are nuts. Wow.

I can't eat popcorn this early in the day, it'll imbalance my Macros.

Post #33 » by **eyriq** » Mon Mar 3, 2025 5:31 pm

Knightro wrote:
eyriq wrote:Melo was in the top five at his peak. I could see Paolo surpassing Melo due to playmaking, rebounding, and defense.

Carmelo finished distantly third in MVP one time in his 19 year NBA career, man. Never finished top 5 in any of his other 18 NBA seasons.

Paolo's also a much worse player than Carmelo is btw. And this is a classic example of why you should never compare guys from clearly different eras.

Carmelo was a .545 TS% guy for the Nuggets and Knicks. On paper that doesn't seem all that special, as Paolo topped .545 in just his second NBA season.

But back in Melo's prime period (2004-2017) the league was far less efficient overall. Teams didn't take threes and it was *significantly* more difficult to score at the rim because there was less space.

NBA teams averaged just 20 3PT attempts a night in 2013 (the year Melo finished 3rd in MVP), with almost 2/3rd of the league attempting fewer than 20 3PT shots a game. Now teams average 37.5 3PT shots a night.

And because of all the space being provided by all of these 3PT attempts, FG% at the rim has also spiked from .636 in 2013 to .694 now.

With all that being factored in, Melo was actually an above average offensive talent for his era in terms of efficiency.

The NBA average TS% is now .574 and Paolo's at .525. He's miles and miles below where the league is currently. He has a 2005 style of play in 2025.

For most analysis I do I group by season and center and scale measures and then create a linear combination of those similar to what you do for sweater vest points.

So this controls for differences in era, right?

I use this approach on the following metrics:
Win shares, 2 pointers made, VORP, Free throws made, total minutes, steals, PER, rebounds, assists, BPM, blocks, three pointers made, and On-Off. A lot of role, volume, efficiency, and impact stats that I think paint a picture for how productive a player is.

The composite score is:

Melo at 19, 4.04
Melo at 20, 3.06
Melo at 21, 5.41
Melo at 22, 5.32

Paolo at 20, 2.70
Paolo at 21, 4.74
Paolo at 22, 3.16

Yes, Melo is ahead. I'd even say it's a significant lead. But it's not a huge difference.

JoshuaPotter · Post #34 » by **JoshuaPotter** » Mon Mar 3, 2025 5:35 pm

My 5 second thought. There is no 3rd,4th,5th scorer on this team as constructed. Multiple chances are being given for players to rise to the occasion and they just can't score. Because of this, the playbook against Paolo is kindergarten levels of defensive plan and simple. Pack paint, dare the team to shoot. EZ.

drsd · Post #35 » by **drsd** » Mon Mar 3, 2025 5:43 pm

Banchero won;t be traded in the next two years. But to answer the question, as half of this board is screaming for a PG, then the assist leader this year should be the target, right?

I think Banchero for Trae Young would be considered by the Hawks, in a complex set of assets. It won't happen, but this is basically a fair player-swap for both teams.

Last Guardian · Post #36 » by **Last Guardian** » Mon Mar 3, 2025 5:43 pm

eyriq wrote:
89Magicfan wrote:
eyriq wrote:Melo was in the top five at his peak. I could see Paolo surpassing Melo due to playmaking, rebounding, and defense.

Me too and why I think these conversations are silly. Anyone who’s watched Melo in his prime can see the difference. It’s a lazy comp.
If I think about big, versatile forwards that are similar to Paolo and I put them into tiers I'd go something like:

Tier 1: LeBron
Tier 2: Tatum/Webber/Melo/Blake
Tier 3: Randle/Siakam

He's already in tier 3.

He's not as good a playmaker or rebounder as Lamar Odom...

89Magicfan · Post #37 » by **89Magicfan** » Mon Mar 3, 2025 5:47 pm

Knightro wrote:
eyriq wrote:Melo was in the top five at his peak. I could see Paolo surpassing Melo due to playmaking, rebounding, and defense.

Carmelo finished distantly third in MVP one time in his 19 year NBA career, man. Never finished top 5 in any of his other 18 NBA seasons.

Paolo's also a much worse player than Carmelo is btw. And this is a classic example of why you should never compare guys from clearly different eras.

Carmelo was a .545 TS% guy for the Nuggets and Knicks. On paper that doesn't seem all that special, as Paolo topped .545 in just his second NBA season.

But back in Melo's prime period (2004-2017) the league was far less efficient overall. Teams didn't take threes and it was *significantly* more difficult to score at the rim because there was less space.

NBA teams averaged just 20 3PT attempts a night in 2013 (the year Melo finished 3rd in MVP), with almost 2/3rd of the league attempting fewer than 20 3PT shots a game. Now teams average 37.5 3PT shots a night.

And because of all the space being provided by all of these 3PT attempts, FG% at the rim has also spiked from .636 in 2013 to .694 now.

With all that being factored in, Melo was actually an above average offensive talent for his era in terms of efficiency.

The NBA average TS% is now .574 and Paolo's at .525. He's miles and miles below where the league is currently. He has a 2005 style of play in 2025.

I understand and if that’s all he needs to work on, we’re in damn good shape with him.

I know it was one season but it was season out of two going on three where last year he was trending in a positive direction for someone whose role was what it was. This whole idea that because one player is more efficient you’ll put him into a bigger role will produce the same efficiency is not true mostly.

I just wish we we accept that our two star players, last year Franz’s 3 point shooting, this year Paolo’s efficiency is something like all players need to work on and instead focus on the biggest issue and an issue we have much larger body of work to compare to, and that’s our roster construction which in turn helps players become more efficient.

drsd · Post #38 » by **drsd** » Mon Mar 3, 2025 5:49 pm

Knightro wrote:
eyriq wrote:Melo was in the top five at his peak. I could see Paolo surpassing Melo due to playmaking, rebounding, and defense.

Carmelo finished distantly third in MVP one time in his 19 year NBA career, man. Never finished top 5 in any of his other 18 NBA seasons.

Paolo's also a much worse player than Carmelo is btw. And this is a classic example of why you should never compare guys from clearly different eras.

Carmelo was a .545 TS% guy for the Nuggets and Knicks. On paper that doesn't seem all that special, as Paolo topped .545 in just his second NBA season.

But back in Melo's prime period (2004-2017) the league was far less efficient overall. Teams didn't take threes and it was *significantly* more difficult to score at the rim because there was less space.

NBA teams averaged just 20 3PT attempts a night in 2013 (the year Melo finished 3rd in MVP), with almost 2/3rd of the league attempting fewer than 20 3PT shots a game. Now teams average 37.5 3PT shots a night.

And because of all the space being provided by all of these 3PT attempts, FG% at the rim has also spiked from .636 in 2013 to .694 now.

With all that being factored in, Melo was actually an above average offensive talent for his era in terms of efficiency.

The NBA average TS% is now .574 and Paolo's at .525. He's miles and miles below where the league is currently. He has a 2005 style of play in 2025.

AND: Anthony is a career 35.5% three-ball shooter on good volume. That's over 19 years.

three3d · Post #39 » by **three3d** » Mon Mar 3, 2025 6:51 pm

For the first time someone is criticizing ownership and coaching and it’s Paolo’s mom. How do you think the DeVos family will take to this?

Skybox · Post #40 » by **Skybox** » Mon Mar 3, 2025 6:53 pm

AdamTheGreek wrote:
Knightro wrote:
eyriq wrote:Co-signed

He might not ever even be an all-star again!

He would’ve been an All-Star this season had he not gotten hurt (same as Franz).

Man posted a 50-point near triple-double and then got hurt the next game. That’s not a mirage.

Did I use too many big words in the OP?

I like him too…plenty of spots for that.