RGM GOAT Debate Thread (Part 2)

[Iwasawitness]

Name me a better defensive series that Jordan had in his career that LeBron had vs rose and the Bulls in 2011 and 2016 vs warriors....It was not the only one by LeBron of course btw

So why does Lebron only have 5 first team defensive appearances in nearly 20 years of playing in the league?

Why no defensive player of the year?

(more excuses?)

Why did you dodge his question? He said name two better defensive performances. You didn’t do that. Answer the question.

[bledredwine]

Name me a better defensive series that Jordan had in his career that LeBron had vs rose and the Bulls in 2011 and 2016 vs warriors....It was not the only one by LeBron of course btw

So why does Lebron only have 5 first team defensive appearances in nearly 20 years of playing in the league?

Why no defensive player of the year?

(more excuses?)

Why did you dodge his question? He said name two better defensive performances. You didn’t do that. Answer the question.

I didn't. Look through the replies. I gave him two series, one of them being 92' Blazers... but I'll let you find the other

[jbk1234]

Two bad plays by Evan there

[jbk1234]

I don't think I foul there.

[Djoker]

I read the last couple of pages in this thread. The always recurring excuse for Lebron is that he faced tougher competition. That so many of those Finals were completely unwinnable. Based on series odds, that narrative is simply revisionist history.

Lebron James
Year: Vegas Lines, Implied Odds

2007: +360, 21.7%
2011: -175, 63.6%
2012: +155, 39.2%
2013: -220, 68.8%
2014: +135, 42.6%
2015: +190, 34.5%
2016: +180, 35.7%
2017: +250, 28.6%
2018: +688, 12.7%
2020: -350, 77.8%

Total Implied Odds: 425% --> 4.25 Expected titles

**I would round down and just say 4 Expected Titles due to Kyrie's injury in 2015.

So based on series odds at the time, you would expect Lebron to win 4 championships in his 10 appearances which is what he did. Thus, it's fair to say Lebron neither overachieved nor underachieved. Notice that he lost a series as a favorite in 2011 and another one in 2014 in which his team was a very slight underdog and then he made up for it by winning 2016 as an underdog. 2015 wasn't a winnable series due to the Kyrie injury. And 2007, 2017 and 2018 weren't winnable series but then you would have expected him to put up more of a fight than winning 1 game in those 3 series combined.

Let's do the same analysis for Jordan to compare.


Michael Jordan
Year: Vegas Lines, Implied Odds

1991: -200, 66.7%
1992: -250, 71.4%
1993: -240, 70.6%
1996: -950, 90.5%
1997: -600, 85.7%
1998: -125, 55.6%

Total Implied Odds: 362.5% --> 3.63 Expected Titles

Jordan was a favorite in all 6 Finals but as we saw with Lebron in 2011, being the favorite doesn't mean you always win the series. To go 6-0 and never face a single Game 7 is still pretty remarkable and well above expectations. Jordan was only expected to win around 4 titles (equal to Lebron) in his 6 appearances so by winning 6 he greatly overachieved.

Both men were expected to win around 4 titles but Lebron won 4 and Jordan won 6. Thus Lebron is behind Jordan not because he underachieved but because Jordan greatly overachieved.

[Iwasawitness]

So why does Lebron only have 5 first team defensive appearances in nearly 20 years of playing in the league?

Why no defensive player of the year?

(more excuses?)

Why did you dodge his question? He said name two better defensive performances. You didn’t do that. Answer the question.

I didn't. Look through the replies. I gave him two series, one of them being 92' Blazers... but I'll let you find the other

Those are your best examples??

Yeah, you’re gonna have to do better than that.

[michaelm]

In Lebron’s 10 finals, on four occasions, the player Lebron guarded (or chose not to guard at his own position in the cop out against KD) won finals MVP.

So in 40% of his finals appearances, Lebron’s small forward finals matchup won finals MVP. That includes Andre Iguodala. Talk about defensive prowess.

Iggy won the final mvp because he was the only reason why that LeBron did not score 40 points per game in that finals.....The cavs were up 2-1 despite a complete depleted roster before Iggy was in the starting lineup and one of the other reason also why Iggy won the FMVP was because he was able to hit the wide open shot that the cavs were conceded to him

LeBron was 57% from the field and 51% from 3 in 2014....The spurs won because they were 54% from the field and 47% from 3....Jordan never face a offense like that who are elite on defense in the 1990s like the spurs and the warriors

And the reason LeBron didn't guard KD was because he had such a huge offensive load....it's ridiculous to ask LeBron to do something when Jordan needed to do that because he had Pippen,Grant,Rodman,etc and his opposing team never had a player of Durant's caliber as the sidekick and not to mention the warriors had a DPOY and another great 3 point shooter like Klay on their team too

Jordan never had a defensive series like LeBron had vs Bulls in 2011 or in 2016 vs warriors....Not even close

No one can say LeBron has no case against Jordan. What I don’t hold with is adjusting Jordan down due to the quality of his team mates etc 25 years after the events. One of the prime reasons for my high regard for Jordan in the team game of basketball is that good to great teams could be and were built around him, which was the name of the game then and probably still is. We will never know how good the teams of either player would have been with the players transposed, and both players could only play against the teams and players who turned up to play them.

In general I would say if you play on teams that win 11 titles like the Russell Celtics or 6 like the Jordan Bulls other players on the teams are inevitably going to end up being highly rated, but whether Russell and Jordan were lucky to have the team-mates they had or the team-mates were lucky to have played with BIll and MJ is the question, with both probably the case imo.

[bledredwine]

Why did you dodge his question? He said name two better defensive performances. You didn’t do that. Answer the question.

I didn't. Look through the replies. I gave him two series, one of them being 92' Blazers... but I'll let you find the other

Those are your best examples??

Yeah, you’re gonna have to do better than that.

No, no I don't. You're definitely overhyping Lebron's defense.

[Iwasawitness]

I didn't. Look through the replies. I gave him two series, one of them being 92' Blazers... but I'll let you find the other

Those are your best examples??

Yeah, you’re gonna have to do better than that.

No, no I don't. You're definitely overhyping Lebron's defense.

No, I'm honestly not. LeBron shut down an MVP candidate (EDIT: Actually, I was wrong, Derrick Rose WON the MVP that season, so he shut down an MVP winner) and was historically dominant at that end in the 2016 Finals. I would ask you what Jordan did in the examples you cited that compares, but as you've demonstrated to me and everyone else, you didn't watch the NBA back then, so you wouldn't be able to answer.

[The High Cyde]

Those are your best examples??

Yeah, you’re gonna have to do better than that.

No, no I don't. You're definitely overhyping Lebron's defense.

No, I'm honestly not. LeBron shut down an MVP candidate (EDIT: Actually, I was wrong, Derrick Rose WON the MVP that season, so he shut down an MVP winner) and was historically dominant at that end in the 2016 Finals. I would ask you what Jordan did in the examples you cited that compares, but as you've demonstrated to me and everyone else, you didn't watch the NBA back then, so you wouldn't be able to answer.

Dude is just here to troll and make up stats

[michaelm]

No, no I don't. You're definitely overhyping Lebron's defense.

No, I'm honestly not. LeBron shut down an MVP candidate (EDIT: Actually, I was wrong, Derrick Rose WON the MVP that season, so he shut down an MVP winner) and was historically dominant at that end in the 2016 Finals. I would ask you what Jordan did in the examples you cited that compares, but as you've demonstrated to me and everyone else, you didn't watch the NBA back then, so you wouldn't be able to answer.

Dude is just here to troll and make up stats

Or perhaps not given 56% of those who voted on the poll on this thread share his view.

You are of course entitled to your view as well but if there isn’t an incontrovertible argument for Jordan being GOAT there isn’t such an argument for LeBron being GOAT either. If he wins a title this year playing team ball with Luka that would be a strong argument for me but this obviously can’t be expected or required of him.

[Kobe187]

1. Jordan
2. Kobe
3. KAJ
4. Wilt
5. James
6. Duncan
7. Curry
8. Magic
9. Bird
10. Shaq

11. Russell
12. Olajuwon

[The High Cyde]

No, I'm honestly not. LeBron shut down an MVP candidate (EDIT: Actually, I was wrong, Derrick Rose WON the MVP that season, so he shut down an MVP winner) and was historically dominant at that end in the 2016 Finals. I would ask you what Jordan did in the examples you cited that compares, but as you've demonstrated to me and everyone else, you didn't watch the NBA back then, so you wouldn't be able to answer.

Dude is just here to troll and make up stats

Or perhaps not given 56% of those who voted on the poll on this thread share his view.

You are of course entitled to your view as well but if there isn’t an incontrovertible argument for Jordan being GOAT there isn’t such an argument for LeBron being GOAT either. If he wins a title this year playing team ball with Luka that would be a strong argument for me but this obviously can’t be expected or required of him.

Don’t have to say all that, just say you support him making up BS claims and trolling.

[lessthanjake]

I read the last couple of pages in this thread. The always recurring excuse for Lebron is that he faced tougher competition. That so many of those Finals were completely unwinnable. Based on series odds, that narrative is simply revisionist history.

Lebron James
Year: Vegas Lines, Implied Odds

2007: +360, 21.7%
2011: -175, 63.6%
2012: +155, 39.2%
2013: -220, 68.8%
2014: +135, 42.6%
2015: +190, 34.5%
2016: +180, 35.7%
2017: +250, 28.6%
2018: +688, 12.7%
2020: -350, 77.8%

Total Implied Odds: 425% --> 4.25 Expected titles

**I would round down and just say 4 Expected Titles due to Kyrie's injury in 2015.

So based on series odds at the time, you would expect Lebron to win 4 championships in his 10 appearances which is what he did. Thus, it's fair to say Lebron neither overachieved nor underachieved. Notice that he lost a series as a favorite in 2011 and another one in 2014 in which his team was a very slight underdog and then he made up for it by winning 2016 as an underdog. 2015 wasn't a winnable series due to the Kyrie injury. And 2007, 2017 and 2018 weren't winnable series but then you would have expected him to put up more of a fight than winning 1 game in those 3 series combined.

Let's do the same analysis for Jordan to compare.


Michael Jordan
Year: Vegas Lines, Implied Odds

1991: -200, 66.7%
1992: -250, 71.4%
1993: -240, 70.6%
1996: -950, 90.5%
1997: -600, 85.7%
1998: -125, 55.6%

Total Implied Odds: 362.5% --> 3.63 Expected Titles

Jordan was a favorite in all 6 Finals but as we saw with Lebron in 2011, being the favorite doesn't mean you always win the series. To go 6-0 and never face a single Game 7 is still pretty remarkable and well above expectations. Jordan was only expected to win around 4 titles (equal to Lebron) in his 6 appearances so by winning 6 he greatly overachieved.

Both men were expected to win around 4 titles but Lebron won 4 and Jordan won 6. Thus Lebron is behind Jordan not because he underachieved but because Jordan greatly overachieved.

Great post!

I think this really gets at the heart of one of the biggest reasons why most people have Jordan above LeBron. It felt like Jordan and his team always lived up to expectations, while LeBron’s teams were frequently contenders but usually fell short. People aim to explain that away by saying LeBron’s teams faced unbeatable opponents. And, of course, there’s something to be said for the fact that, for instance, the KD Warriors were an extremely difficult opponent. That’s definitely something that gets lost when people just talk about Jordan going 6-0 in the Finals. But ultimately, as you’ve shown, based on contemporaneous perceptions of teams’ quality (i.e. taking into account things like the KD Warriors being absolute juggernauts), LeBron’s teams didn’t overachieve expectations overall, while Jordan’s team did. That’s a huge aspect of the “greatness” of a player, and the legacy of that player.

Another way to do the analysis you did is to look at each individual year, and look at their pre-playoffs title odds and accumulate those odds. If we do that, here’s what we get:

Lebron James
Year: Vegas Lines, Implied Odds

2006: +1800, 5.3%
2007: +1200, 7.7%
2008: +2500, 3.8%
2009: +160, 38.5%
2010: +160, 38.5%
2011: +300, 25.0%
2012: +200, 33.3%
2013: -125, 55.6%
2014: +200, 33.3%
2015: +225, 30.8%
2016: +475, 17.4%
2017: +405, 19.8%
2018: +800, 11.1%
2020: +280, 26.3%
2021: +400, 20.0%
2023: +1400, 6.7%
2024: +2500, 3.8%

Total Implied Odds: 376.9% —> 3.769 Expected Titles


Michael Jordan
Year: Vegas Lines, Implied Odds

1985: +4000, 2.4%
1986: +50000, 0.2%
1987: N/A (pre-playoffs odds only listed for top 9 teams; Bulls odds worse than +2500, which is 3.8%)
1988: +1200, 7.7%
1989: +2000, 4.8%
1990: +800, 11.1%
1991: +250, 28.6%
1992: -200, 66.7%
1993: +300, 25.0%
1995: +500, 16.7%
1996: -400, 80.0%
1997: -200, 66.7%
1998: +140, 41.7%

Total Implied Odds (generously assuming 1987 is +2500): 355.4% —> 3.554 Expected Titles

Again, the results basically suggest that LeBron achieved about what was expected (very slightly more actually), while Jordan blew expectations out of the water. I think people can contest the exact validity of using betting odds as a measure, but I think if we just zoom out a bit we should be able to acknowledge that this gets to a general truth that underlies why Jordan is the consensus GOAT over LeBron: His teams outdid contemporaneous expectations in a way that LeBron’s teams did not. And, of course, one could try to say that that’s because LeBron was better and therefore he pushed up his teams’ expectations more than Jordan did, but that seems like an odd argument to make given how highly thought of Jordan was when he played and how good his statistical profile is. What we’re basically left with is two guys who are both at the top of the pyramid in terms of what individual statistics indicate about how good they were, but one simply outdid expectations more than the other. Could one fashion an argument that that’s just a product of luck and circumstance? Yes, and people have definitely done exactly that at length. But ultimately, greatness is about what happened, and this is the way the cookie crumbled.

[bledredwine]

No, no I don't. You're definitely overhyping Lebron's defense.

No, I'm honestly not. LeBron shut down an MVP candidate (EDIT: Actually, I was wrong, Derrick Rose WON the MVP that season, so he shut down an MVP winner) and was historically dominant at that end in the 2016 Finals. I would ask you what Jordan did in the examples you cited that compares, but as you've demonstrated to me and everyone else, you didn't watch the NBA back then, so you wouldn't be able to answer.

Dude is just here to troll and make up stats

Your screen name doesn't make sense to me. Are you one of those people who hates the guy
in his screen name?
You guys are familiar with the 1992 finals and prime Clyde Drexler, right?

Go ahead and look up those stats. I don't have to "make them up" for you. I can assure you that
the trolling has been coming from your side.

[JasonStern]

Not sure why I feel like entering this debate...
I voted LeBron.
Question comes down to what metrics do you view as important for deciding the GOAT.
For me, it came down to longevity of being great. Jordan really took a ding there with his minor league baseball stint. But LeBron has been playing at a great level for 22 seasons now, and still adding. He also played in the social media era, where everything is criticized. And yet, no real controversies. Spending time in college when he clearly could have played in the NBA also hurts Jordan.
Now, if you ask me who wins - peak Jordan versus peak LeBron? Jordan wins this. But if we're just talking peaks, Shaq wins. I don't think "basketball historians" remember how great peak Shaq was. But that lasted maybe 3 years? The rest of his career was mostly just very good to, honestly, mid-tier. So, Shaq's peak gets overlooked in hindsight.

[The4thHorseman]

No, I'm honestly not. LeBron shut down an MVP candidate (EDIT: Actually, I was wrong, Derrick Rose WON the MVP that season, so he shut down an MVP winner) and was historically dominant at that end in the 2016 Finals. I would ask you what Jordan did in the examples you cited that compares, but as you've demonstrated to me and everyone else, you didn't watch the NBA back then, so you wouldn't be able to answer.

Dude is just here to troll and make up stats

Your screen name doesn't make sense to me. Are you one of those people who hates the guy
in his screen name?
You guys are familiar with the 1992 finals and prime Clyde Drexler, right?

Go ahead and look up those stats. I don't have to "make them up" for you. I can assure you that
the trolling has been coming from your side.

Tell us again about Jordan's overwhelming VORP per 48

[michaelm]

Dude is just here to troll and make up stats

Or perhaps not given 56% of those who voted on the poll on this thread share his view.

You are of course entitled to your view as well but if there isn’t an incontrovertible argument for Jordan being GOAT there isn’t such an argument for LeBron being GOAT either. If he wins a title this year playing team ball with Luka that would be a strong argument for me but this obviously can’t be expected or required of him.

Don’t have to say all that, just say you support him making up BS claims and trolling.

Disagreeing with LeBron partisans doesn’t make him a troll. Most of his arguments from my point of view are not unreasonable even if not definitive. There is a maelstrom of basketball statistics out there which can be used selectively by everyone, and some of those which favour LeBron actually are influenced by longevity as he says. If you want to rate LeBron better on longevity as another poster just has that is not unreasonable even imo.

[Himothy Duncan]

This is some of y’all GOAT? The so called psychotic competitor wouldn’t last a day with social media lmao.

Read on Twitter

?s=46&t=N8KS3iAE6xP2AR5_6BL8mw

[MavsDirk41]

This is some of y’all GOAT? The so called psychotic competitor wouldn’t last a day with social media lmao.

Read on Twitter

?s=46&t=N8KS3iAE6xP2AR5_6BL8mw

Wow great post congratulations. This added nothing.