2024-25 NBA MVP Discussion Thread (Pt. 3: Son of daughter of MVP thread)

[LeBronSpaghetti]

Denver isn’t a serious team. It’s very hard to give MVP to a guy on a team like this especially with the season Shai is having and how good OKC is.

The only chance for Joker to win is an SGA injury or if Denver wins both games back to back in OKC that are coming up and they finish the season on an absolute tear. So all that to say there’s basically zero chance Jokic wins and that’s fine, SGA deserves it.

[Special_Puppy]

Denver isn’t a serious team. It’s very hard to give MVP to a guy on a team like this especially with the season Shai is having and how good OKC is.

The only chance for Joker to win is an SGA injury or if Denver wins both games back to back in OKC that are coming up and they finish the season on an absolute tear. So all that to say there’s basically zero chance Jokic wins and that’s fine, SGA deserves it.

How many serious teams are there in the NBA this year in your view? Just OKC+CLE+BOS?

[LeBronSpaghetti]

Denver isn’t a serious team. It’s very hard to give MVP to a guy on a team like this especially with the season Shai is having and how good OKC is.

The only chance for Joker to win is an SGA injury or if Denver wins both games back to back in OKC that are coming up and they finish the season on an absolute tear. So all that to say there’s basically zero chance Jokic wins and that’s fine, SGA deserves it.

How many serious teams are there in the NBA this year in your view? Just OKC+CLE+BOS?

Im not sure exactly but in my view a “serious team” isn’t necessarily a serious contender because some teams just don’t have the talent to win it all but they might still conduct themselves in a serious and professional manner. Denver does have the talent but they don’t have the will or structure to do it. To me a serious team is a team that gives a **** and plays hard every night. A team that improves over the course of the season, comes into the season ready to go, in shape. A team that rises to the occasion of the game/moment they’re in. I think of a serious team as a sharp, focused, detail oriented group that doesn’t repeat the same mistakes over and over all season long. To me Denver doesn’t come anywhere close to fitting that criteria.

I don’t believe the majority of Nuggets players care if they win another ring or not. I think they’re just showing up and playing the games and going home like they’re punching in and out of work.

[hardenASG13]

With about 20 games left, I still have Jokic ahead. 3rd in scoring, 3rd in rebounds, 2nd in assists, 4th in 3pt %, 1st in triple doubles and 2nd in double-doubles, although now with Sabonis out, he's going to pass Sabonis in double-doubles.

1. Jokic
2. SGA
3. Tatum
4. Brunson
5. Giannis
6. LeBron
7. Cunningham

I'd counter that lots of his assists are just dribble handoffs and pitch backs. Thats why despite his low time of possession hes first in "passes" per game by a wide margin and 2nd in potential assists per game. The 3s he shoots are almost exclusively wide open looks from the top of the key (68.5% of his attempts are from there, and they aren't created off the dribble).

I see alot of people reference Westbrooks triple doubles years as stat padding, saying his MVP was fraudulent. How many times does Jokic not shoot much early but rack up assists (just like westbrook did). Not Jokic though. This is SGAs year.

Except we know Denver's ORTG with him on vs. him off is the best in the league, so obviously what he's doing is impactful. No one can credibly argue Jokic statpads. Anyone who says that is outing themself as either a hater or not worth listening to. With that said, I do agree the award is probably SGA's this year.

I'm just pointing out that many people said westbrook used to stat pad, and critique his MVP season as such despite him dragging his team to 6 seed that year in similar fashion to Jokics first MVP season. I do think how they use him with the constant screen DHOs and pitchbacks boosts his assists to a degree.

As far as their ORTG with him on/off...obviously they are much better when he's out there, he's a superstar. How much do you think some of that is on coaching though as when I watch them they don't seem to stagger rotations very well or have a cohesive offensive strategy when he's off the floor. Their offense is so Jokic centered when he's on, it almost seems they have no plan when he's off. I don't watch them enough to say that definitively though.

[yoyoboy]

In a race this close, the factors that ultimately gives SGA the edge for me are 1) the fact he's doing what he is on a much better team that is on pace to set the single-season record for SRS, 2) it speaks volumes that his total plus-minus this year blows everyone else - including his own teammates - out of the water, with a bigger lead over 2nd place Jokic than Jokic has over 22nd place Sam Merrill, and 3) he has missed fewer games, 4) imo he has performed better in the games against the teams that actually matter.

SGA has had mostly shining performances against Cleveland, Boston, NY, Memphis, and to a lesser degree Denver. Jokic's more dominant performances have tended to come against the lower competition. Missed 1 Boston game and was alright in the other. Against Cleveland, in 1 game he was great on offense but gave a lot back on the other end where the Cavs' bigs dominated and he was targeted in the drop by the guards, en route to Denver giving up 149. In the other he was mostly good but with poor scoring efficiency. Missed both Memphis games. Below standards in both Knicks games (poor efficiency and lit up by KAT in one game and poor efficiency/low output in the other). And then against OKC, I would say he was very good in the win despite the poor scoring efficiency considering how he dominated the offensive glass and punished them with his playmaking. But in the other, he had another low scoring output/poor efficiency performance where he was solidly outplayed by Chet. You can even throw in the LA game for Jokic with that being post-Doncic trade and LA now looking like they're in that group of contenders - a game where Jokic did not play well at all.

[RRR3]

Is SGA what prime MJ would look like in today’s leagues production wise? Sounds absurd but he’s been that good.

[Special_Puppy]

Is SGA what prime MJ would look like in today’s leagues production wise? Sounds absurd but he’s been that good.

FT Tax Unfortunately brings him down to prime Michael Adams levels

[RRR3]

Is SGA what prime MJ would look like in today’s leagues production wise? Sounds absurd but he’s been that good.

FT Tax Unfortunately brings him down to prime Michael Adams levels

Lol this is legit what 90s stans would say. I've heard stuff like LeBron would be Anthony Mason in the 90s

[scrabbarista]

Just want to point out as I did in the James Washed thread:

Jokic was the best player in the league in February.

27/13/11 on 70% TS%.

10-3 record.

Unfortunately, even with Jokic playing better than anyone, he probably lost ground in the MVP race. Such is the power of perception-shaping media.

[Alatan]

I'd counter that lots of his assists are just dribble handoffs and pitch backs. Thats why despite his low time of possession hes first in "passes" per game by a wide margin and 2nd in potential assists per game. The 3s he shoots are almost exclusively wide open looks from the top of the key (68.5% of his attempts are from there, and they aren't created off the dribble).

I see alot of people reference Westbrooks triple doubles years as stat padding, saying his MVP was fraudulent. How many times does Jokic not shoot much early but rack up assists (just like westbrook did). Not Jokic though. This is SGAs year.

Except we know Denver's ORTG with him on vs. him off is the best in the league, so obviously what he's doing is impactful. No one can credibly argue Jokic statpads. Anyone who says that is outing themself as either a hater or not worth listening to. With that said, I do agree the award is probably SGA's this year.

I'm just pointing out that many people said westbrook used to stat pad, and critique his MVP season as such despite him dragging his team to 6 seed that year in similar fashion to Jokics first MVP season. I do think how they use him with the constant screen DHOs and pitchbacks boosts his assists to a degree.

As far as their ORTG with him on/off...obviously they are much better when he's out there, he's a superstar. How much do you think some of that is on coaching though as when I watch them they don't seem to stagger rotations very well or have a cohesive offensive strategy when he's off the floor. Their offense is so Jokic centered when he's on, it almost seems they have no plan when he's off. I don't watch them enough to say that definitively though.

Its very clear to everyone that you dont watch them. Its a question do you watch basketball at all.

[scrabbarista]

Except we know Denver's ORTG with him on vs. him off is the best in the league, so obviously what he's doing is impactful. No one can credibly argue Jokic statpads. Anyone who says that is outing themself as either a hater or not worth listening to. With that said, I do agree the award is probably SGA's this year.

I'm just pointing out that many people said westbrook used to stat pad, and critique his MVP season as such despite him dragging his team to 6 seed that year in similar fashion to Jokics first MVP season. I do think how they use him with the constant screen DHOs and pitchbacks boosts his assists to a degree.

As far as their ORTG with him on/off...obviously they are much better when he's out there, he's a superstar. How much do you think some of that is on coaching though as when I watch them they don't seem to stagger rotations very well or have a cohesive offensive strategy when he's off the floor. Their offense is so Jokic centered when he's on, it almost seems they have no plan when he's off. I don't watch them enough to say that definitively though.

Its very clear to everyone that you dont watch them. Its a question do you watch basketball at all.

Jokic has the highest average assist quality in the NBA while being second in assists.

Source: Dunc'd On pod. Not sure which site they used, as this is from memory.

Anyway, the DHO thing is absurd:

A) he's creating the best looks, tons of layups, B) he's creating the best team offensive ratings, and if it's just DHO's then everyone should do it. (It's not just OnOff's. It's also raw points per100.)

[Alatan]

I wish that SGA was less of a free throw merchant. Apart from that I dont mind him winning the MVP. But i hate how the refs handle him like hes made of expensive glass while letting OKC murder on defense. Doesnt look nice at all.

[kazyv]

I wish that SGA was less of a free throw merchant. Apart from that I dont mind him winning the MVP. But i hate how the refs handle him like hes made of expensive glass while letting OKC murder on defense. Doesnt look nice at all.

meh, I've said this before and it bears reiterating. After having lived through Harden, nothing SGA does in terms of FTs seems out of the ordinary or that big of a deal. 9 FTA per game? at his usage, if he had like 1 FTA less, it really can't be that big of a deal in terms of impact on your team if you're the opponent. 2 FTAs less, you're looking at some saint like never before seen figure.

I can click on any given year, look at the top scorer and be like... 9 FTA, ok, that checks out.

I happened to click on 2013, it was Melo with 7.6 FTA. next year, it was KD with 9.9 I mean really. Kobe in 06, 07 always had more than 10

9 FTA for a guard with his skill set and usage just seems like it's a given

[hardenASG13]

Don’t think I’ve ever heard the critique that Jokic racks up a lot of “empty” assists. It’s tough to measure this, but the eFG% on Jokic’s assists are 65.5% this year (adjusting for turnovers). Jokic also rates well in “high value assists” (rim assists, 3 point assists, and FT assists). Also rates well in BBall Index’s “Passing Creation Quality” metric but I’m not sure how it’s calculated

It's not so much a critique, rather a statement on how Denver runs their offense. Jokic may be the only guy capable of being used the way Denver uses him, but he racks up lots of assists just handing the ball to a guy running/curling off him then setting a screen on their defender, often at the top of the key area. It leads to lots of assists, and inflates numbers to a degree. It plays out very well in formulas many here use to discuss basketball. I'd like to see it translate to beating good teams in the playoffs, upsetting a team or 2 like a guy like Luka has, etc. You can argue the same about SGA for now, but it looks like the west is OKCs to lose this year so that might not be the case much longer.

I find the line of argument over "empty" assists pretty weak. The 3-point argument is absurd. Is the next argument going to be he gets lots of rebounds because he is tall and stands near the basket?

No issue if you think SGA should get the MVP, but c'mon.

Are most of his 3s not standstill looks from the top of the key? How reliable is that in crunchtime in a deep playoffs series against a quality opponent, vs. being able to generate looks off the dribble?

[hardenASG13]

Except we know Denver's ORTG with him on vs. him off is the best in the league, so obviously what he's doing is impactful. No one can credibly argue Jokic statpads. Anyone who says that is outing themself as either a hater or not worth listening to. With that said, I do agree the award is probably SGA's this year.

I'm just pointing out that many people said westbrook used to stat pad, and critique his MVP season as such despite him dragging his team to 6 seed that year in similar fashion to Jokics first MVP season. I do think how they use him with the constant screen DHOs and pitchbacks boosts his assists to a degree.

As far as their ORTG with him on/off...obviously they are much better when he's out there, he's a superstar. How much do you think some of that is on coaching though as when I watch them they don't seem to stagger rotations very well or have a cohesive offensive strategy when he's off the floor. Their offense is so Jokic centered when he's on, it almost seems they have no plan when he's off. I don't watch them enough to say that definitively though.

Its very clear to everyone that you dont watch them. Its a question do you watch basketball at all.

I watch them a decent amount, especially during the playoffs where I've yet to be wowed. Since you watch them a ton, what do you think of their offensive gameplan when jokic is off the court? What is it? And do they stagger rotations effectively?

It was also clear to this whole board mostly that I didn't watch them last year, when I said all season their title was fluke, and questioned what would happen when they got up against a team like a Minnesota/OKC or Boston, and well, we saw what happened.

[Special_Puppy]

Delete

[hardenASG13]

I'm just pointing out that many people said westbrook used to stat pad, and critique his MVP season as such despite him dragging his team to 6 seed that year in similar fashion to Jokics first MVP season. I do think how they use him with the constant screen DHOs and pitchbacks boosts his assists to a degree.

As far as their ORTG with him on/off...obviously they are much better when he's out there, he's a superstar. How much do you think some of that is on coaching though as when I watch them they don't seem to stagger rotations very well or have a cohesive offensive strategy when he's off the floor. Their offense is so Jokic centered when he's on, it almost seems they have no plan when he's off. I don't watch them enough to say that definitively though.

Its very clear to everyone that you dont watch them. Its a question do you watch basketball at all.

Jokic has the highest average assist quality in the NBA while being second in assists.

Source: Dunc'd On pod. Not sure which site they used, as this is from memory.

Anyway, the DHO thing is absurd:

A) he's creating the best looks, tons of layups, B) he's creating the best team offensive ratings, and if it's just DHO's then everyone should do it. (It's not just OnOff's. It's also raw points per100.)

I'm not saying its just DHOs. I'm saying they boosts his assists numbers, and good teams can limit/take away those actions over the course of a 7 game playoff series....as we've seen when Jokic led teams play good teams in a playoff series.

[yoyoboy]

Just want to point out as I did in the James Washed thread:

Jokic was the best player in the league in February.

27/13/11 on 72% TS%.

10-3 record.

Unfortunately, even with Jokic playing better than anyone, he probably lost ground in the MVP race. Such is the power of perception-shaping media.

To be fair, the schedule has been incredibly weak. The average SRS of the teams he's played against is -2.27. Excluding the most recent game against Boston, the average SRS is -3.15. So it's not really a huge accomplishment that the team came out with a 10-3 record.

Against the 5 teams with an SRS greater than -2, he averaged:
21.0 ppg / 12.6 apg / 13.4 rpg / 4.8 topg / 68.4% TS

Against the 8 teams with an SRS lower than -2, he averaged:
30.3 ppg / 10.6 apg / 11.9 rpg / 2.8 topg / 70.8% TS

Still amazing production in the first line because he's Jokic, but it's worth knowing the considerably lower scoring volume and higher turnovers against the better competition. And his two worst performances of the month came against arguably the two best teams he faced during the stretch - Boston and LA. And this trend of lower scoring volume in particular, coupled with being taken advantage of defensively a bit more, is something that's occurred with Jokic against the elite teams this year. Those top teams have been able to take away his scoring and target him more on the defensive end, whereas with Shai, I feel he has been more consistent regardless of the level of opponent.

[Special_Puppy]

Just want to point out as I did in the James Washed thread:

Jokic was the best player in the league in February.

27/13/11 on 72% TS%.

10-3 record.

Unfortunately, even with Jokic playing better than anyone, he probably lost ground in the MVP race. Such is the power of perception-shaping media.

And this trend of lower scoring volume in particular, coupled with being taken advantage of defensively a bit more, is something that's occurred with Jokic against the elite teams this year. Those top teams have been able to take away his scoring and target him more on the defensive end, whereas with Shai, I feel he has been more consistent regardless of the level of opponent.

Do you think that’s small sample size noise or do you think there’s some flaw in Jokic’s play style that causes his scoring volume to drop against elite teams and his defense to get exposed more? If we expand the sample size to include previous years, do we see the same trend? Do we see the same trend in his scoring if we look at top 10 defenses instead?

[kingr]

The thing I like about SGA is that he plays both ends of the court.