Is Dalen Terry an NBA level player?

[Infinity2152]

Been thinking about what it means to value a player based on their injury history. Basketball is a crazy impactful sport, running and cutting all the time, hard landing impacts on hardwood floors, player collisions. Most of that is random, and the healthiest guy could end up with a ton of injuries, or none at all. If a player has weak bones, appears overweight, playstyle that tends to lead to injury, some visible reason why this person would be injury prone, that has some value. I think the injury prone tag is way overused, unless the person has repeated injuries of the same type or in the same area. For Pat Will, one major injury was torn ligaments in his wrist during a fall, another fluid buildup in his foot leading to a fracture requiring surgery.

The wrist injury that cost him the most time happened because of a flagrant foul, could have happened to any player in the league. The two seasons he didn't have major injuries he played 71 and 82 games.

[DuckIII]

Been thinking about what it means to value a player based on their injury history. Basketball is a crazy impactful sport, running and cutting all the time, hard landing impacts on hardwood floors, player collisions. Most of that is random, and the healthiest guy could end up with a ton of injuries, or none at all. If a player has weak bones, appears overweight, playstyle that tends to lead to injury, some visible reason why this person would be injury prone, that has some value. I think the injury prone tag is way overused, unless the person has repeated injuries of the same type or in the same area. For Pat Will, one major injury was torn ligaments in his wrist during a fall, another fluid buildup in his foot leading to a fracture requiring surgery.

The wrist injury that cost him the most time happened because of a flagrant foul, could have happened to any player in the league. The two seasons he didn't have major injuries he played 71 and 82 games.

Injury history does matter, like in the case of Lonzo I’m certain his next contract will reflect caution. But with acute injuries, you are definitely correct. You have to look at each player’s specific circumstances.

However, Pat’s foot injury cannot conclusively be said to be acute. The reported condition has longevity concerns and Pat has already had a related setback. It matters.

Though not to the point you get rid of him for inferior players and prospects who have already reached their low grade ceilings like Saddiq Bey. Bey is a supposed 3-D guy who shoots less than the league average on 3s and had the 4th worst defensive rating in the NBA last year. 3rd worst? Defensive stalwart Corey Kispert. And Bey is on his 3rd team and turns 26 in 2 weeks. The early stages of a possibly concerning foot injury don’t justify that type of action. Especially not on a team that desperately needs talent.

But this is a Terry thread and he is improving this year so I’ll drop the side convo now.

[DropStep]

And here's the final point: Almost all of these numbers except Pat's are based on the old math of contract value and they still make significantly more than Pat. Three years from now these numbers will be skewed massively even further in favor of the value of Pat's deal during its own lifetime.

I've made the same case, but how sure are we that salaries will continue to explode? The salary cap only went up 4 million last year - less than the overall inflation rate. And, more importantly, I'm not sure the effect of the new CBA and its various aprons has fully factored itself into contract levels even after 15 months. Right now it feels like the CBA is mostly manifesting itself when GMs can't or won't add big salaries like Zach and Vuc, even if their skills are really needed. But it seems like this salary aversion hasn't fully filtered down to new contracts yet. This is just my general sense - I'm not sure if the salary cap gurus have game-theoried this out yet, but the same chilling effect has to eventually hit new salaries as they cycle through and GMs continue to absorb the pain, seems to me. Maybe the new TV contracts will aid the situation. Apparently the NBA's projection is for a $14 million bump next year, which is the max allowable. Not sure how it will all shake out.

[AhUtopian]

Do u think Dalen Terry and Dyson Daniels comparable ?

I am not saying Terry as good as Dyson , just trying to find a route to expect .

Sent from my SM-S9160 using RealGM mobile app

[2weekswithpay]

Do u think Dalen Terry and Dyson Daniels comparable ?

I am not saying Terry as good as Dyson , just trying to find a route to expect .

Sent from my SM-S9160 using RealGM mobile app

Spot on comparison. They're almost the same size, have similar roles, and have the same problems with athleticism/shooting. Daniels might be the best perimeter defender in the NBA right now, though it's worth playing him despite his offensive limitations. The same isn't true for Terry right now.

I wouldn't expect Terry to ever provide the same defensive value as Daniels so he'd have to compensate by being better on offense.

[rosenthall]

Do u think Dalen Terry and Dyson Daniels comparable ?

I am not saying Terry as good as Dyson , just trying to find a route to expect .

Sent from my SM-S9160 using RealGM mobile app

Dyson is a good best case scenario for Dalen. However Dyson is younger than Dalen and already outproducing him, so it's a stretch to think he'll ever be as good as him. A more realistic comparison based on his performance so far is Troy Brown Jr. Their production, draft position, measurables and game have a lot in common.

That's not a good look for Dalen, but I think TBJ's stay in the league was hindered by the fact that he was a moron. I don't have a specific example, but three teams bailed on him pretty quickly, so either his work ethic or character was way off.

Dalen seems very competitive and has the discipline to train with Demar in the offseason, so he looks like he has more going on between the ears than TBJ did.

[MGB8]

Do u think Dalen Terry and Dyson Daniels comparable ?

I am not saying Terry as good as Dyson , just trying to find a route to expect .

Sent from my SM-S9160 using RealGM mobile app

Dyson is a good best case scenario for Dalen. However Dyson is younger than Dalen and already outproducing him, so it's a stretch to think he'll ever be as good as him. A more realistic comparison based on his performance so far is Troy Brown Jr. Their production, draft position, measurables and game have a lot in common.

That's not a good look for Dalen, but I think TBJ's stay in the league was hindered by the fact that he was a moron. I don't have a specific example, but three teams bailed on him pretty quickly, so either his work ethic or character was way off.

Dalen seems very competitive and has the discipline to train with Demar in the offseason, so he looks like he has more going on between the ears than TBJ did.

Yup. Terry is very similar to Troy Brown in terms of player profile. The question is work ethic and professionalism- how much he can push himself and build on growth. But he is trending n the right direction, albeit slowly. So far at 37% from 3, but on low volume (and small sample so far this season). Still, a nice jump from first 2 years.

[DASMACKDOWN]

Had to bring this back to life. I can see a world where Terry is like a defensive energy guy. He is an NBA player, but right now even with opportunity, he is blowing it.

At this point we shouldn't have even picked up his 4th year option. Because I cant see any scenario where he jumps any of Coby, Ayo, Giddey, Lonzo, Huerter. That is a perpetual DNP-CD or 5 min type of guy.

Even if we traded some of those guys, we will probably replace them with another guard (that will probably beat Dalen in the rotation), so its moot point.

But even if you are an NBA player, its not a given that you will stick in the league very long.

David Nwaba was probably twice the player Dalen currently is bounced around the league. He is playing in Europe right now.

Now I am not saying if we did move on from Dalen, he cant find a team. Even Cam Payne, Kris Dunn etc found a way to get back later in their career. I just think for Dalen he really has to grab it by the horns now or he risks fighting for his NBA life.

[Chi town]

Dalen looks awful because there is much less offense on the floor and his lack of any offense really shows.

[kodo]

THT is obviously leagues better than Terry, almost the same age (2 yr difference), and THT was a 2-way pickup for us.
I don't have a problem on gambling on young guys, but you can do that with 2-ways (THT) or 2nd rounders (Phillips) or packaged in a trade (Tre Jones).

A 1st round pick even as low as 18 should have been someone with at least some potential upside. Terry's ceiling was an NBA roleplayer hustler when drafted. We drafted a guy who as a Sophmore was only able to average 8 ppg on the college level.
That's about as dumb as drafting a guy who couldn't start for his college team at #4.

[DuckIII]

Terry improved this year. Unfortunately he still stinks. He is at best a borderline NBA player like probably a 100 other guys not currently in the league. He’s pretty bad.

[League Circles]

Very good defender, totally worthless offensive player. If it was reversed he'd probably get 20 million / year lol.

[pipfan]

I'm certainly no draft expert, but what a bad pick. I do remember before that draft, that I wanted us to take Kessler. When I checked the draft the next day, I honestly thought I was looking at the 2nd round picks when I saw his name. I was following the prospects and I had never heard his name.

Imagine our rebuild right now, with Kessler over Terry-a HUGE future difference. Picking Terry #18 is quietly one of AKME's worst moves (and Eason was at #17!)

[League Circles]

I'm certainly no draft expert, but what a bad pick. I do remember before that draft, that I wanted us to take Kessler. When I checked the draft the next day, I honestly thought I was looking at the 2nd round picks when I saw his name. I was following the prospects and I had never heard his name.

Imagine our rebuild right now, with Kessler over Terry-a HUGE future difference. Picking Terry #18 is quietly one of AKME's worst moves (and Eason was at #17!)

I've grown very ignorant in recent years in non-Bulls players so I saw this and was basically gonna say "who the **** is Kessler" but then I looked up his numbers and thought I should STFU instead lol. Yeah Terry was definitely a big miss, but I didn't happen to know who specifically was available that is much better until now.

[DuckIII]

I'm certainly no draft expert, but what a bad pick. I do remember before that draft, that I wanted us to take Kessler. When I checked the draft the next day, I honestly thought I was looking at the 2nd round picks when I saw his name. I was following the prospects and I had never heard his name.

Imagine our rebuild right now, with Kessler over Terry-a HUGE future difference. Picking Terry #18 is quietly one of AKME's worst moves (and Eason was at #17!)

I've grown very ignorant in recent years in non-Bulls players so I saw this and was basically gonna say "who the **** is Kessler" but then I looked up his numbers and thought I should STFU instead lol. Yeah Terry was definitely a big miss, but I didn't happen to know who specifically was available that is much better until now.

Surprising. The primary debate here when we shockingly took Terry was why we didn’t take Kessler instead when he was considered a vastly superior prospect who provided what we lacked (and still lack) whereas Terry was projected as a mid-second rounder and we already had 3 layers of redundancy at his role.

Pretty terrible. But AK’s draft record, despite being a weakness, is less significant than his other incompetencies. He drafted Matas and Ayo, after all. Both outstanding picks for the draft slot.

[League Circles]

I'm certainly no draft expert, but what a bad pick. I do remember before that draft, that I wanted us to take Kessler. When I checked the draft the next day, I honestly thought I was looking at the 2nd round picks when I saw his name. I was following the prospects and I had never heard his name.

Imagine our rebuild right now, with Kessler over Terry-a HUGE future difference. Picking Terry #18 is quietly one of AKME's worst moves (and Eason was at #17!)

I've grown very ignorant in recent years in non-Bulls players so I saw this and was basically gonna say "who the **** is Kessler" but then I looked up his numbers and thought I should STFU instead lol. Yeah Terry was definitely a big miss, but I didn't happen to know who specifically was available that is much better until now.

Surprising. The primary debate here when we shockingly took Terry was why we didn’t take Kessler instead when he was considered a vastly superior prospect who provided what we lacked (and still lack) whereas Terry was projected as a mid-second rounder and we already had 3 layers of redundancy at his role.

Pretty terrible. But AK’s draft record, despite being a weakness, is less significant than his other incompetencies. He drafted Matas and Ayo, after all. Both outstanding picks for the draft slot.

Damn, sucks that as a group we knew it in real time. Tbh I don't pay much attention to prospects for non lottery picks and then I treat them all as dead to me as soon as we pass on somebody even if I liked them so maybe I just blacked it out lol.

[sco]

I've grown very ignorant in recent years in non-Bulls players so I saw this and was basically gonna say "who the **** is Kessler" but then I looked up his numbers and thought I should STFU instead lol. Yeah Terry was definitely a big miss, but I didn't happen to know who specifically was available that is much better until now.

Surprising. The primary debate here when we shockingly took Terry was why we didn’t take Kessler instead when he was considered a vastly superior prospect who provided what we lacked (and still lack) whereas Terry was projected as a mid-second rounder and we already had 3 layers of redundancy at his role.

Pretty terrible. But AK’s draft record, despite being a weakness, is less significant than his other incompetencies. He drafted Matas and Ayo, after all. Both outstanding picks for the draft slot.

Damn, sucks that as a group we knew it in real time. Tbh I don't pay much attention to prospects for non lottery picks and then I treat them all as dead to me as soon as we pass on somebody even if I liked them so maybe I just blacked it out lol.

There's knowing and then there's KNOWING. Kessler (and so many other guys) were/are no guarantee for success. AK has a type. He likes way, long wings who have handles in the draft. Why? I think there has been a "compensating for losing ball" issue with him, but also because they are the hardest assets to find in the NBA. And because it's rare to find both 3 and D guys ready formed, you are dealing with developmental questions.

I would have been ok drafting Kessler at 18 (we were all hoping for Tari to fall, but that didn't happen), but generally, I don't love spending even mid-1sts on C's. They take a long time to develop into viable starting level talent, and there are so few who are more than rim runners and shot blockers. I generally don't like defending AK, but I can empathize as a guy who plays fantasy sports where you have a queue of guys you like for your pick and they all are gone by your pick and you're stuck choosing between guys that you don't like. Also, picking in the draft is so much more luck than science...if that weren't true, there wouldn't be such a high "miss" rate both on guys taken and passed on. Back on the Kessler point, I think there is a bias against drafting US born/raised white guys...I think it played a part in Matas slipping to us as well.

[DASMACKDOWN]

Surprising. The primary debate here when we shockingly took Terry was why we didn’t take Kessler instead when he was considered a vastly superior prospect who provided what we lacked (and still lack) whereas Terry was projected as a mid-second rounder and we already had 3 layers of redundancy at his role.

Pretty terrible. But AK’s draft record, despite being a weakness, is less significant than his other incompetencies. He drafted Matas and Ayo, after all. Both outstanding picks for the draft slot.

The only counterargument is that Billy Donovan would have not played Kessler. But that is more ignorance of BD.

Hear me out. We had Vooch backed up by Drummond. Drummond a former allstar barely played. So given Donovan's track record, I don't see him being used much. We would have treated him like he was Marko.

But even if it wasn't Kessler, there are about 10 players after Dalen that I think most would rather.

[WindyCityBorn]

No. I hope is saving his money and not spending like he will be the NBA for a long time.

[Muzbar]

I have been Terry's biggest supporter from the day he was drafted, he was who I wanted with the pick and was very happy the Bulls picked him (yep, I'm outing myself).

But, he has been terrible, he's had the odd flash here and there but he's been given opportunities to take advantage of and he just hasn't. I hope they don't pick up his option for next season. He just doesn't have it, he should be a good G-league player though... maybe.

No, Dalen Terry is not an NBA level player, unless you think Shaquille Harrison is an NBA level player.