AEnigma wrote:If they can get up to the fifth seed then they definitely should win a round. Less sure how they fare against the Nuggets or Lakers, but would not put their odds lower than 40% regardless. Butler and Draymond are reliable playoff risers, and neither opponent has the personnel to comfortably defend Steph.
I am a bit less optimistic about the playoffs. Despite the strong early indicators, this team still is incredibly limited on offense. Curry is obviously an elite offensive player but even he has regressed from his peak. Butler is a strong offensive player and has proven he can rise to the occasion in the playoffs (though not always), and I do like his fit with Curry. But he really struggles with his jump shot and has not been consistently aggressive on offense either, and the Warriors' personnel isn't ideally suited to mitigate those issues.
The rest of the rotation players are:
1) Green. Awesome synergy with Curry and therefore still valuable to our offense but his scoring around the rim has been absolutely abysmal and teams are still very happy to leave him completely open from behind the arc.
2) Podz. Solid rotation player but his scoring leaves a lot to be desired. Almost zero rim pressure and he is a limited shooter at this point of his career. These two issues also negatively impact his ability to reliably provide secondary creation.
3) Moody. I like him but he is not a good starter (yet). He tries on offense and he cannot be left open by opposing defenses but he is still not a sharpshooter (prone to missing decent looks) and also really struggles to pressure the rim.
4) Kuminga. Lots of hopes are on him and I understand why. He should be the best scorer behind Curry and Butler on this team. The problem is that he is not a reliable shooter either, and will play in line-ups that feature several of those already.
5) Hield. Still very important to our offense simply because he is a legitimate shooting threat and we need that. If he can return to being a sharpshooter we will be much better but he has struggled with his shot for months and there is no guarantee it will return for the playoffs of all times (with almost no experience to boot).
6) Looney. Love the man, and he does provide some value on offense as a screener and offensive rebounder. But he can't shoot, his finishing ability is limited and his overall scoring ability poor, making him a rough fit in a bunch of line-up combinations.
7) Post. His shooting ability has been a breath of fresh air and is very welcomed. But his rise just shows how starved we are for shooting (especially in the front court). That is also pretty much his only offensive contribution right now and we have no idea if he is even playable in the playoffs.
8) GPII. He really knows how to play around Curry and that gives him minutes. But we obviously don't have to talk about his offensive limitations and that he further hurts our already poor spacing and scoring droughts.
9) TJD. He has been out of the rotation for a while now. Focusing only on offense, that is in part because he can't shoot (hence minutes for Post) and that can't finish through any kind of contact (making him pretty useless in his role).
10) Santos. He has won the hearts of Warriors fans with his hustle plays and that infusion can be a spark for the team, including on offense. But let's be real, he doesn't have NBA skills for his position and that will show even more in the playoffs (on the off-chance that he stays in the rotation).
So yeah, it's pretty bleak. I expect pretty much any playoff team to disrupt our offense pretty easily for significant stretches of the game. I do believe the defense can be good (though probably not against every match-up) and I am hopeful that Curry and Butler, aided by Hield finding his shot and Kuminga providing rim pressure, can give us enough offense to win a series or two. But I wouldn't bet on it. If we still had Wiggins, I'd be much more optimistic. As it stands, though, I do believe we will see some really ugly games featuring the Warriors in the playoffs, and I do believe the team's limitations will be on full display sooner rather than later. I'd be delighted to be wrong, though.
(Also, let me just note that we haven't made the playoffs yet and I don't think it's a foregone conclusion either (even though our chances are obviously infinitely better now than a month ago). Whether that's me being a pessimistic fan or a realistic observer remains to be seen, I suppose).
