zero rings wrote:As for his improvement, I think it mostly comes down to his jump shot. If he can knock down ~40% of his threes in the NBA, the sky is the limit. We’re talking peak Kawhi Leonard with playmaking. If he’s a low 30’s shooter, he might plateau as a Wagner or Siakam type of scorer. A good piece for sure, but not an elite offense unto himself.
The defense and playmaking should translate no matter what.
Flagg shooting in low 30s would be still a better scorer than Wagner or Siakam, because his FTr is amazing and very similar to Zion (~45%), Tatum had 38% FTr in college and still shoots over 6 attempts a game on regular basis in the NBA, Banchero was at 37% in Duke and averages +7 FTA as an NBA player. 7-8 FTA a game sounds like a fair projection, so him without a legit spot up shooting from 3 IMHO would be more of Jimmy Butler-type scorer.
You are obviously right that his shooting development will be crucial for his projection as a scorer overall, just pointing out how great he can be on so many levels:
- 20PPG on 61TS% as an 18yo,
- 38.2% from 3s and 82.8% from FT,
- 6.0 FTA per game
- 4.2 APG per game
- 2.2 TOV per game
- on the best offense in college
He literally checks all the boxes to project 27-7 super efficient offensive output. He projects very well as a shooter, great as a playmaker, elite as a slasher. Doesn't mean he'll reach these heights, but again - what was the last time we've seen something like that? Even ignoring Flagg being younger than any college prospect? And him being perhaps the best defender among those high-volume offensive players?
If he ends up this year on a high note - that's generational output.