Josh Giddey - Conundrum Killer

[jnrjr79]

And just to be clear. There WAS indeed a conundrum at the time this thread was started. If his play since then hasn't resolved that then nothing ever can or will.

I don't think that's accurate. Even if you've come around to generally wanting to retain him, there's still a "how much is too much" question that has to be answered, since I don't think anyone reasonably views him as a max player.

What do you think he is worth, and what would change your mind?

If his current level of play continues through the remainder of the season, my guess is something in the $20-25M/year range. It's a bit tricky as there is expected to be very little cap space on the market this offseason, so my hope is that Brooklyn doesn't give him a big offer sheet and the Bulls can either secure him at a below-market rate or engineer a S&T.

[PJSteven22]

Giddey is running the point. It was the whole purpose in bringing here. Of course he has the ball in his hands. What about his assist totals currently would indicate to you that they would suddenly go down if he had better, elite scorers, around him? Why would you want to try to make Giddey an off-ball scorer?

It a conundrum is that while he’s good on ball, can he be effective off ball. Also can he be an effective shooter/scorer to keep the defense honest. We still need answers to both of those questions? If he has the ball all the time and doesn’t improve his shooting. Good defenses can give him a cushion to take away the drive and take away the pass. Limiting his effectiveness. That’s why he has to become an efficient scorer from mid range and deep. If you at good modern PGs, all can score/shoot when needed. Will he be able to do it? Only time will tell.

They have given him a cushion. He has made them pay. He is shooting 37% from 3 this season. He has consistently improved all season long. About 27% in Nov/Dec, up to 37% in January and 54% in February. In his last 7 games he is shooting 60% from 3 and that includes his 0-4 in the last game. His TS% in February was .645. He is averaging 21 ppg over his last 7 games. 19 PPG for the month of February.

I understand a month is a small sample size. Will his shot suddenly disappear? No way anyone can know that about any player. There are very good shooters who have good and bad shooting years. Coby White is considered a great deep shooter, right? He only has one season of 38% or better from 3 and is shooting a worse percentage than Giddey this season. To be fair, Coby takes 8 per game. Josh only 4. But frankly, Coby takes too many lol. Even when Coby was only taking 5 or 6 a game he didn't shoot any better than Giddey.

All that to say that I am not proclaiming that Giddey will be February Giddey for the rest of his career. But any conundrum went out the window with his play in February. Barring some complete personal meltdown the rest of the season there really isn't any question about whether to re-sign him.

His shooting while has improved, still has some ways to go before he’s a good shooter as a lead guard. While he’s shooting 40.4 percent on wide open threes. He still shoots 26% on open threes and there’s still reluctance at times to pull the trigger. All defenses have to do is a soft close out and he’ll think about it and pass out of the shot or he’ll miss it.

I’m skeptical of the sample because he did this in OKC as well, especially when Shai was out. Also he struggled at times with Zach and Zach is less ball dominant than Shai. Can we still be just as effective with good players around him? We won’t know the answer until he’s in a situation where there’s more talent around him.

I’m not saying let him walk. They should let him test the market like Zach Lavine in 2018.

[Red8911]

[tweet][/tweet]

I don't think that's accurate. Even if you've come around to generally wanting to retain him, there's still a "how much is too much" question that has to be answered, since I don't think anyone reasonably views him as a max player.

What do you think he is worth, and what would change your mind?

If his current level of play continues through the remainder of the season, my guess is something in the $20-25M/year range. It's a bit tricky as there is expected to be very little cap space on the market this offseason, so my hope is that Brooklyn doesn't give him a big offer sheet and the Bulls can either secure him at a below-market rate or engineer a S&T.

Yup I agree easy 25, hopefully not 30 but could get that as well.

[2weekswithpay]

Giddey can play alongside a player like an SGA. We saw this in his second year when he played with both SGA and Jalen Williams and was putting up 17/8/6. The thing is that Giddey was the second ballhandler that year. However, it became obvious that Jalen Williams was going to be a star, and it already was obvious that SGA was one. So, because Jalen Williams was improving so sharply and because Giddey was less of a sure thing, he was the one forced to make sacrifices.

You can have Giddey as the secondary guy, but you can't put him any lower than that. He isn't a role player/tertiary player.

The Dallas series really cemented his narrative because he didn't get playing time. OKC lost a close series to Dallas but it wasn't because of some kind of deficiency in GIddey.

Dallas being able to put Gafford/Lively on Giddey is a deficiency. The loss wasn't entirely on him but his limitations as a player were visible.

[jordanwilliams6]

Giddey can play alongside a player like an SGA. We saw this in his second year when he played with both SGA and Jalen Williams and was putting up 17/8/6. The thing is that Giddey was the second ballhandler that year. However, it became obvious that Jalen Williams was going to be a star, and it already was obvious that SGA was one. So, because Jalen Williams was improving so sharply and because Giddey was less of a sure thing, he was the one forced to make sacrifices.

You can have Giddey as the secondary guy, but you can't put him any lower than that. He isn't a role player/tertiary player.

The Dallas series really cemented his narrative because he didn't get playing time. OKC lost a close series to Dallas but it wasn't because of some kind of deficiency in GIddey.

Dallas being able to put Gafford/Lively on Giddey is a deficiency. The loss wasn't entirely on him but his limitations as a player were visible.

That’s the thing, Giddey standing in the corner on offense is without a doubt a negative player.

As the primary ball handler, you clearly can’t put those guys on him for any decent stretch of time.

The more I see him, the more it’s clear he has to be the number ONE primary ball handler to be effective. We can all see how much better he looks once the air was cleared after the Zach trade.

Now can you build a successful team around him as that guy? The very real multi million dollar question.

[sco]

The Dallas series really cemented his narrative because he didn't get playing time. OKC lost a close series to Dallas but it wasn't because of some kind of deficiency in GIddey.

Dallas being able to put Gafford/Lively on Giddey is a deficiency. The loss wasn't entirely on him but his limitations as a player were visible.

That’s the thing, Giddey standing in the corner on offense is without a doubt a negative player.

As the primary ball handler, you clearly can’t put those guys on him for any decent stretch of time.

The more I see him, the more it’s clear he has to be the number ONE primary ball handler to be effective. We can all see how much better he looks once the air was cleared after the Zach trade.

Now can you build a successful team around him as that guy? The very real multi million dollar question.

I mean it is fun to talk about him in this thread, but I sincerely doubt the Bulls would be focused on "building around him"...any more than they would for a guy like Matas. Sure, they're interesting players and you can see how adding different guys look around them, but I think the FO should be just getting the best young players on the roster, regardless of fit, and replace pretty much everyone not named Giddey, Ball, Matas or Smith, if at all possible.

[2weekswithpay]

The Dallas series really cemented his narrative because he didn't get playing time. OKC lost a close series to Dallas but it wasn't because of some kind of deficiency in GIddey.

Dallas being able to put Gafford/Lively on Giddey is a deficiency. The loss wasn't entirely on him but his limitations as a player were visible.

That’s the thing, Giddey standing in the corner on offense is without a doubt a negative player.

As the primary ball handler, you clearly can’t put those guys on him for any decent stretch of time.

The more I see him, the more it’s clear he has to be the number ONE primary ball handler to be effective. We can all see how much better he looks once the air was cleared after the Zach trade.

Now can you build a successful team around him as that guy? The very real multi million dollar question.

Depends on what is considered successful. 30 win team? Probably. 40 win team? Maybe in the right circumstances. 45 wins? Highly unlikely. 50 wins? No.

Based off what Giddey's shown so far in his career I wouldn't expect more than 35 wins. Now this isn't a bad thing since most players aren't great floor raisers. The issue comes from Giddey needing to be prioritized. He needs to ball but hasn't shown that he can produce enough offense to warrant the high usage. Different play style but this is fundamentally the same issue Derozan has had throughout his career.

[PJSteven22]

Dallas being able to put Gafford/Lively on Giddey is a deficiency. The loss wasn't entirely on him but his limitations as a player were visible.

That’s the thing, Giddey standing in the corner on offense is without a doubt a negative player.

As the primary ball handler, you clearly can’t put those guys on him for any decent stretch of time.

The more I see him, the more it’s clear he has to be the number ONE primary ball handler to be effective. We can all see how much better he looks once the air was cleared after the Zach trade.

Now can you build a successful team around him as that guy? The very real multi million dollar question.

I mean it is fun to talk about him in this thread, but I sincerely doubt the Bulls would be focused on "building around him"...any more than they would for a guy like Matas. Sure, they're interesting players and you can see how adding different guys look around them, but I think the FO should be just getting the best young players on the roster, regardless of fit, and replace pretty much everyone not named Giddey, Ball, Matas or Smith, if at all possible.

With this front office who knows what they are thinking

[Stratmaster]

I don't think that's accurate. Even if you've come around to generally wanting to retain him, there's still a "how much is too much" question that has to be answered, since I don't think anyone reasonably views him as a max player.

What do you think he is worth, and what would change your mind?

If his current level of play continues through the remainder of the season, my guess is something in the $20-25M/year range. It's a bit tricky as there is expected to be very little cap space on the market this offseason, so my hope is that Brooklyn doesn't give him a big offer sheet and the Bulls can either secure him at a below-market rate or engineer a S&T.

I agree. I think that's a very fair range for both parties. Obviously I like 20 better than 25. But you don't let him walk for the difference.

[sco]

What do you think he is worth, and what would change your mind?

If his current level of play continues through the remainder of the season, my guess is something in the $20-25M/year range. It's a bit tricky as there is expected to be very little cap space on the market this offseason, so my hope is that Brooklyn doesn't give him a big offer sheet and the Bulls can either secure him at a below-market rate or engineer a S&T.

I agree. I think that's a very fair range for both parties. Obviously I like 20 better than 25. But you don't let him walk for the difference.

With Giddey starting to lose a little momentum in March, I'm sticking with my goal to wait until the end of the season to see what he does. With all of the noise via KC that AK doesn't want to overpay, I'm starting to become optimistic that AK plays the RFA process right...letting Giddey go out to market and being vocal that he'll match. I'll be optimistic that the Nets (and others) don't want to lose the time delay embedded in the process to waste a swing at Giddey.

I do worry about the notion that Giddey is showing he can be a good player on a bad team, but not a good player on a good team. The league is littered with bad PG contracts in recent years from guys who put up good numbers as the on-ball guy on bad teams, only to never recapture that magic elsewhere. The good news regarding Giddey is that he isn't a chucker, and his aggression balance is the issue. His pre-post ASG numbers have gone from 10 to 15, and that understates the situation where he's getting fouled going to the rim.

[Jcool0]

If his current level of play continues through the remainder of the season, my guess is something in the $20-25M/year range. It's a bit tricky as there is expected to be very little cap space on the market this offseason, so my hope is that Brooklyn doesn't give him a big offer sheet and the Bulls can either secure him at a below-market rate or engineer a S&T.

I agree. I think that's a very fair range for both parties. Obviously I like 20 better than 25. But you don't let him walk for the difference.

With Giddey starting to lose a little momentum in March

He has played one game and had 19/9/7. Not sure what you are doing here.

[sco]

I agree. I think that's a very fair range for both parties. Obviously I like 20 better than 25. But you don't let him walk for the difference.

With Giddey starting to lose a little momentum in March

He has played one game and had 19/9/7. Not sure what you are doing here.

It was 18 points...huge difference! Don't f*ck with my narrative!

[Jcool0]

Read on Twitter

[WindyCityBorn]

Giddey definitely not losing momentum. 3 ball has come down to Earth the last two games, but he is still scoring well and up putting near triple doubles.

[Dez]

Getting to the line is a big thing, if the 3 isn't falling then getting free points at the line is the next best thing.

[Chi town]

Getting to the line is a big thing, if the 3 isn't falling then getting free points at the line is the next best thing.

Yep. I’d say FTs are more important.

I’ve his 3 ball and FT mechanics imorive enough to believe that a full summer in Chicago working with Patton will help him take another stride next season. Hopefully much more volume.

[WindyCityBorn]

If Giddey keeps this up the rest of the season which seems possible if not likely then what’s he getting paid? $25 million per is looking fair now.

[ShouldaPaidBG]

This is no longer a conundrum this is great

[kulaz3000]

If Giddey keeps this up the rest of the season which seems possible if not likely then what’s he getting paid? $25 million per is looking fair now.

25 million? That would be a bargain. I'd say he is going to get 30 million per at the bare minimum, and I think 30 would be a fair deal on both sides.

He is far and away our best player, and though he may not be a franchise player, he is a key foundational player. We just need to build the team the right way, two way players, athlete/willing to run, shooters and he is going to continue to put up big numbers.

If we can resign Giddey on a reasonable deal, we would have easily won this trade with the Thunder. I actually thought we won the trade initially, but at the bare minimum I thought it was a fair deal, but he is going to continue to get better, as Caruso is going to continue to regress.

[PJSteven22]

March has been historically his best month.