Jaden McDaniels is breaking out

[TheZachAttack]

The Wolves have unlocked a new level for McDaniels on both sides of the floor since the new year and really over the last 20-25 games especially. Jaden has historically been limited to a corner spacing role primarily for the Wolves and his inconsistent 3 point shot led to some ups and downs and frustrations. In addition, despite there being a lot of metrics around Jaden being one of the best help defenders/rim protecting wings in the league the Wolves primarily used him as a PoA defender (which he is good at). This led to him using a ton of energy on defense and also struggling with foul trouble.

Jaden has always flashed strengths outside of the role he had been playing for the Wolves. He has really good touch around the rim and has a really solid mid range/floater game -- with his length he can rise up and every shot is open for him. He has had seasons with really strong percentages but the usage just hadn't been there. In the last 20-25 games, the Wolves have created a lot more of a creative role for Jaden that plays to his strengths on both ends and the results have been astounding.

On Offense, instead of having Jaden stick to the corner and shoot 3's when the ball swings to him the Wolves are asking Jaden to be a lot more aggressive off the catch, to handle the ball more on the perimeter, and to get to the rim and get to spots in the mid range floater area. This has been a huge success for Jaden. He is averaging over 60% on 2 point shots despite lots of contested mid range and floater shots. He's just so long at 6'11 with a 7'0 wingspan and his touch and body control allows him to win. I would argue that the most reliable shot that the Wolves have right now is a Jaden drive into a mid range fadeaway or Jaden rising through contact and getting to his floater game.

In addition to this, the Wolves are also playing him a lot more in traditional big spots on the floor. They are asking him to screen and role, catch the ball in the middle of the floor, and attack from that spot. This has been huge for the Wolves because it gets McDaniels into his best spots on the floor and also means he doesn't have to do as many dribbles to get to the rim which helps him because his handle is improved but still not quite as tight as it should be.

Teams have been putting 2+ on the ball on Ant extremely aggressively (highest percentage of any player in the league) and with Gobert, the Wolves had no way to attack the advantage that 2 on the ball gave us. Jaden can catch the ball in the middle of the floor and can find open shooters and also has a 60+% whenever he wants. In addition, against most bigs he can blow by them and finish at the rim with his length.

In addition to this, McDaniels is playing more in the dunker spot where again his length and finishing ability allows him to be a finisher. As he does all of this and operates closer to the basket and in more traffic, he's getting a lot more offensive rebounds and getting to the line. When he's involved in all of these ways, he's still taking some 3's but it's no longer his primary focus. And while the percentages are roughly still the same as his career averages, the flow of his game is a lot better when he's confident and impacting the game and then taking 3 point shots.

On defense, Jaden will still play PoA defense but we're playing him a lot more in a traditional "4" spot. Jaden is great in this spot because it allows him to be a free safety and a disruptor. He has the length and body control to be a really strong rim protector and the mobility to really be trouble as the helper in 2-man actions honestly in many similar ways to Anthony Davis. I think Jaden is arguably one of the top 5 PoA defenders in the league, one of the top 5 screen navigators, one of the top 5 help defenders, and one. of the top 5 players in more of a free safety role.

This versatility has allowed the Wolves and Jaden to be a lot more versatile and use him as a swiss army knife weapon against lots of different types of matchups.

During his last 23 games Jaden is averaging:

36 mpg
18 points (61% from 2 - 33% from 3 - 89% from the FT line)
8 rebounds
3 assists
3 blocks + steals

The question then becomes, if this is real and Jaden is a 16-19 on 60% TS% scorer (depending on how many other scoring options he's playing with) who can play on both ends in a lot of different ways and be successful, how valuable is he? How valuable is that type of scorer with first team all defense? And first team all defense in multiple different roles as needed?

To me, this puts Jaden in the Anuoby/Bridges range as a wing player and some may argue better because of his defense and versatility. His contract this year is 23m, the year after 25m, the year after 27m. He's in the first year of his extension and locked up for 5 years 131m. This may be one of the better contracts in the league.

Check out some of these highlights all from this stretch:

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

What do you all think, does he pass the eye test as having taken a leap? What does it mean for how good we think he is and his value if this leap is for real? Who would you compare him to?

[Klomp]

We are very excited, but too soon for the General board....

[TheZachAttack]

We are very excited, but too soon for the General board....

I think it's interesting and I think others will find it interesting too and if they don't then this just floats down to future pages. I think people enjoy reading high effort posts that help them learn about other teams and players in the NBA and McDaniels is a player who has been involved in a lot of trade interest from other fans. You don't have to read it or engage with it if you don't want. If it's too soon for the general board the engagement or lack there of will speak for itself. If it is for real, then it's a chance for me to get on record and refer back to how I believed I had seen enough to see that it's real and we'll see how it plays out.

[TheZachAttack]

Another great video breakdown to watch is this video from a Wolves blogger:

Watch on YouTube

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Watch on YouTube

This will help you visualize what I wrote.

[magee]

Did his breakout correlate without Julius Randle on the floor?

[TheZachAttack]

Did his breakout correlate without Julius Randle on the floor?

The first part of the breakout was with Randle on the floor. Randle's injury (and Gobert's and Ant has missed a couple of games) opened up some reasons for the Wolves to try different thinks with McDaniels. Randle has been back now for 3 games and in those 3 games McDaniels has averaged

19.7 ppg
6.7 rbds
3.3 assists
3.7 stocks

He's shooting 76% from 2 (8.3 attempts per game) , 40% from 3 (5 attempts per game), and 100% from the FT line (1 attempt per game).

I think there are some questions on if McDaniels, Randle, and Gobert can co-exist offensively with that spacing and all of them liking to play in the middle of the floor. I don't think that's anything to do with McDaniels specifically but just the combination of skillsets together. That's something they are going to have to figure out. This spacing is part of what relegated McDaniels to the corner. I don't think that's going to fly now that they've seen this though.

I think either Randle or Gobert will be gone next season. I would prefer Gobert. Randle and McDaniels actually pair quite well together. Part of that is we can surround them with 3 of Ant, Dante, Naz, Conley, and NAW who are all 40+% 3 point shooters.

[UcanUwill]

He was my fantasy pick, and most of the season, he turned into big disappointment. Recently his numbers improved drastically, but he still has games where he is like 6/18 from the field.

[Papi_swav]

Its great that he's improved his game and the Wolves will need him to continue that. Is he better as a 3 or a 4? Are the Wolves letting Randle go? Should they aim for another 4 or a wing ?

[zimpy27]

His season stats haven't really seen any change though.

I'm going to have to see a bit more from him over longer to get hyped.

[FrodoBaggins]

I'd love to see how the team has performed over these games. SRS, ORtg, DRtg, etc. Is there actual value being added, or are statistics just being distributed differently?

[TheZachAttack]

His season stats haven't really seen any change though.

I'm going to have to see a bit more from him over longer to get hyped.

He was averaging <10 points per game and <5 rebounds per game. His stats have jumped up a ton — he was really struggling. That’s the easy answer, but in my opinion I don’t really understand that answer. He’s been playing an entirely different game for about 2 months now. I think the only question is what his volume stats will be due to the Wolves having a lot of mouths to feed. Though, so far as the Wolves have gotten players back his numbers and how he’s playing haven’t changed. And then next year I think his play now really changes how the wolves will approach team building. Before January, I would have said trade McDaniels and even use him with another contract to basically just shed salary.

[TheZachAttack]

Its great that he's improved his game and the Wolves will need him to continue that. Is he better as a 3 or a 4? Are the Wolves letting Randle go? Should they aim for another 4 or a wing ?

I would probably say that in a technical sense, I think he's better as a "4" than a "3". But really, I think what's been successful is playing him in both spaces on the floor for stretches of games and switching things up to create different looks. McDaniels can operate off of the catch and is an inconsistent 3 point shooter but he can hit 3's. He can also execute some PnR ball-handler actions. These are typical "3" sets. However, like I called out... he's really been able to create a ton of advantages acting as the roller and in the dunker spot.

On defense, I think the Wolves have now found that they like to use him in different ways depending on the skillset of the opposing teams best or second best player. If the player is someone like a Jamal Murray, who doesn't have a lot of footspeed and relies on jump shots... McDaniels can smother them PoA. However, I think they've found that when McDaniels starts the possession as the help defender and can play the Anthony Davis role as a help defender and the defender that teams switch into Jaden's length and mobility as well as ability to see the floor in front of him causes him to create a lot more impact stats in terms of blocks, steals, and rebounds versus when he's the PoA defender and in a position where he's always contesting.

So, I don't think it's really right to classify him as either the "4" or the "3". I think what you don't want to do is pair him with an older school type of "4", which there isn't so many of those left anyways. Julius Randle plays like a "wing" and spends a lot of time acting a s a ball-handler, starting the possession above the 3 point line, takes 3 point shots, but then also takes some possessions out of the post. Randle and Jaden play really well together because they can interchangeably switch between both spaces on the floor and create a lot of natural variety in how the Wolves offense attack.

The Wolves are something like 18-8 in the last 25+ games that Randle has played. He's really settled in nicely and has been a winning player for a good portion of the season for the Wolves. I think he's figured some things out fit wise, but also I wonder if he wasn't healthy to start the season and how missing all of training camp, preseason, and the offseason impacted his conditioning and his feel for basketball (he was rusty)-- he's been a lot different player as of late.

I think the Wolves would be fine bringing Randle back and him opting in. I would doubt they would sign him outright or extend him unless he was willing to do something wild like extend for 3 years <75. I think their main priority is bringing back and signing Naz (who will cost probably ~25ish m per year). As of now, Wolves fans believe that the decision is really between Randle and NAW. If Randle pts in, the Wolves will be able to sign Naz but not NAW. They may be fine with that though because they have 3 young guards/wings that they need to create playing time for in Rob, Shannon Jr, and Jaylen Clark.

In my personal opinion, I think the Wolves need to move on from Gobert if they can and then sign a role player traditional big (or 2) for a lot less money. I like when the Wolves are playing Jaden-Randle-Naz in our front court and really spacing the floor. I think Gobert is still a pretty good player, but his inability to be a short role threat allows teams to spam 2 on the ball on Ant and for the Wolves to not be able to take advantage of the advantage. In addition, his lack of spacing makes it harder to play McDaniels and Randle and makes the Wolves play much slower and much more static. They do still need size and they've been playing undersized but I'd rather get that from a much cheaper role player and spend money on Naz, Naw, and Randle.

[SweaterBae]

His volume has increased.

[TheZachAttack]

He was my fantasy pick, and most of the season, he turned into big disappointment. Recently his numbers improved drastically, but he still has games where he is like 6/18 from the field.

I mean I'm not sure we're talking about a player style or type that's great for Fantasy. I took a look and he's had 4 games in his last 16 where he's shot under 40% from the field--so you are right. I will say he had 3 bad games because in one of those 4 he was 6-6 from the FT line and had 13 rebounds (6 offensive) and put up 17 points on 15 shots.

In those 3 games he averaged:

12.3 points
8 rebounds
2.3 assists
2 stocks

on

42% from 2 (on 10.3 atts/game)
23% from 3 (on 4.3 atts/game)
66% from FT (on 1 atts/game)

To me, if this is now a standard for a bad night... that puts the Wolves in a pretty strong position. You can see how he's less aggressive in these games but for the most part he was just a bit off on his jump shot. So, yeah I'm less trying to make an argument for him as a fantasy player and more as a real life player and his impact.

[TheZachAttack]

His volume has increased.

His volume has increased, his efficiency has increased, his shot chart composition has completely changed, he's averaging about double the rebounds, and has had a 40-50% increase in steals + blocks per game.

[TheZachAttack]

I'd love to see how the team has performed over these games. SRS, ORtg, DRtg, etc. Is there actual value being added, or are statistics just being distributed differently?

I'll pull the data. I would say that given he's replacing scoring from Randle, Gobert, and Dante, we will see what this team level data shows. I guess stepping back from what it does show, I'm not sure I would have been confident before this 25 game stretch that McDaniels could scale his volume and maintain his efficiency or that he would be able to score in the variety of ways he's scoring.

Again, he's still playing well and maintaining volume when players are coming back. For me, I think it gives the Timberwolves offense another tool and it gives some flexibility and confidence in decision making and roster construction going forward as the Wolves have a log jam of talent in a couple areas and are going to be running up against cap issues and will require changes.

[SweaterBae]

His volume has increased.

His volume has increased, his efficiency has increased, his shot chart composition has completely changed, he's averaging about double the rebounds, and has had a 40-50% increase in steals + blocks per game.

He had a hot February that saw him shoot BELOW his career average from both 2 and 3. I agree he's playing well but the glazing is a bit much for 1 month of superior rebounding and FT rate. He doubled his career FT rate and upped his career FT% by 15% in February. Is that breaking out or unsustainable? Maybe let it play out.

[TheZachAttack]

I'd love to see how the team has performed over these games. SRS, ORtg, DRtg, etc. Is there actual value being added, or are statistics just being distributed differently?

During this stretch of games since 1/23 the Timberwolves (according to NBA.com) have averaged:

118 ORtg
111 Drtg
7 net

Prior to this stretch the Timberwolves averaged

112 ORtg
110 DRtg
2 net

And again for a large part of this stretch they've been without multiple key starters on both ends of the floor. He has the 3rd highest net rating on the team behind Naz/Rudy.

As far as his on/off, his on and off is right at the team averages.

[TheZachAttack]

His volume has increased.

His volume has increased, his efficiency has increased, his shot chart composition has completely changed, he's averaging about double the rebounds, and has had a 40-50% increase in steals + blocks per game.

He had a hot February that saw him shoot BELOW his career average from both 2 and 3. I agree he's playing well but the glazing is a bit much for 1 month of superior rebounding and FT rate. He doubled his career FT rate and upped his career FT% by 15% in February. Is that breaking out or unsustainable? Maybe let it play out.

I think that's box score watching though. If you watch how he is getting points and what the Wolves were asking him to do and could put a shot difficulty metric associated with his shots averaging 57% from 2 in February on that shot diet and 18.5 points is very much a breakout considering he was able to take a much higher usage and a lot higher shot difficulty and scoring off the bounce and finish just below his career average of 57.7%.

The stats are a reflection of him playing entirely differently. Will he continue to play entirely differently? Maybe not. But I don't think that your framing is an accurate reflection of why his stats have changed. I actually think him shooting below his 3 point percentage and still playing so well is actually almost entirely the point from the Wolves perspective.

[Mr Puddles]

We are very excited, but too soon for the General board....

Agree. If McDaniels wanted to have a thread created about him on the General board based on a small sample size he should have joined the Lakers.