Josh Giddey - Conundrum Killer

[dougthonus]

If you as an individual fan don't want to pay him (much) above the MLE, that is fine. You are living in lala land if you think an NBA franchise bereft of talent is going to behave that way. It makes you seem out of touch on what NBA salaries are in todays game.

Fundamentally, I wouldn't care what Giddey is "worth", the team that pays him what he is "worth" is almost certainly going to be a below .500 team, because his role on a contending team is bench guard.

Contending teams don't have inefficient, bottom quartile defenders as their primary ball handlers, nor do they have non shooting bottom quartile defenders as their role players. What Giddey brings does nothing for a contending team as a starter.

He could be a valuable 2nd offensive unit guy off the bench on such a team. The best GM in basketball already made that evaluation and talked to him about it, and he said no thanks.

So sure, Giddey a a floor raiser on a bad team, might be worth whatever, I don't want to sign floor raisers on my bad team.

[Chi town]

Sure, and they didn't want him, and they benched him in the playoffs.

To me, Giddey is the PG Vucevic.

Doesn’t get any lower that that, Doug.

Obviously would like to know which Vuc you are talking about and if Giddey is 22yr old Giddey or who you think he will become.

Fundamentally, ball dominant, low efficiency, non gravity creating, poor defenders are guys I would never sign on my team. I don't think they ever do anything meaningful for you whatsoever, and any money you pay them is a waste.

Giddey is such a player, so is Vuc (in almost any year of his career).

People always think that if you just get the right talent around them or the right whatever that it will work, but it doesn't and it won't, but the problem is always that the shots are always better off going to someone whom isn't low efficiency or does create gravity, so the volume is actually a negative not a positive, and the defense always kills you on the other end.

As the NBA has become way more analytically stratified, this is even more true than ever before. Every year you look at the trade deadline and every team is looking only for defense and shooting to complement their star players.

For Giddey to have 25M in value to me, he needs to become an efficient scorer either by shooting the three really well and in higher volume or by getting enough physicality to considerably increase his foul draw rate.

I’ve said 5 3s per game at 40% and 6 FTs per game at 80% would make that possible and give him some gravity. Not elite 1st option but helpful gravity.

This is what Giddey has done since the TDL.

If Giddey continues this the rest of the way I’d match an offer up to 25M. I believe in his upward trajectory and him reaching his ceiling. I think his shooting will jump even more after a summer with Patton.

[dougthonus]

I’ve said 5 3s per game at 40% and 6 FTs per game at 80% would make that possible and give him some gravity. Not elite 1st option but helpful gravity.

This is what Giddey has done since the TDL.

If Giddey continues this the rest of the way I’d match an offer up to 25M. I believe in his upward trajectory and him reaching his ceiling. I think his shooting will jump even more after a summer with Patton.

If he could do that consistently, I'd be okay with that too.

[Infinity2152]

5 3's a game at 40%, wouldn't that make him one of the best three point shooters in the league? Plus 80%+ free throw shooting? So aside from being one of the best rebounding guards in the league and one of the best passing gueards in the league, he also has to be one of the best shooting guards to be effective?

Right between Steph Curry and Jamal Murray for players that take 5 3PA's game, lol.

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask?q=best+three+point+percentage+2024-2025+min+5+3pa%2Fgm

[DrModesty]

The thing with bad shooters is they need to perform for a lengthy period of time for defenses to change for them. I think Giddey is going to need to shoot high 30's on this medium volume for multiple years before defenses care. He is demanding attention on his drives, and I would argue that he is in the lower middle quartile of defenders at this point. If you compare him to other lead ball handlers he is probably close to average on defense.

But it all comes down to assuming that Giddey will improve somewhat as he ages. There is reason to assume this, because he has improved as a player during his time in the league. A lot of the anti Giddey sentiment seems to rely on virtually no improvement occurring.

[Jcool0]

Is he getting 100M?

[HomoSapien]

Conundrum cancelled?

[SHO'NUFF]

[WindyCityBorn]

Conundrum cancelled?

Yes. This is no fluke or hot streak.

[cocktailswith_2short]

Im happy to say I was on this bandwagon from the start . There weren't that many of us .

[Jahensle]

I think at this point 5/150 would be a good deal for the bulls. He might get more.

[sco]

He may not be super quick or a big leaper, but Josh is tough, gritty and clutch. Hard not to root for guys like that.

[cocktailswith_2short]

I think at this point 5/150 would be a good deal for the bulls. He might get more.

Id guess this estimate is pretty close . His stock is definitely rising.

[WindyCityBorn]

He may not be super quick or a big leaper, but Josh is tough, gritty and clutch. Hard not to root for guys like that.

Neither is Luka or Jokic. High IQ matters.

[PJSteven22]

I think at this point 5/150 would be a good deal for the bulls. He might get more.

Yikes

[PJSteven22]

Yay we’re gonna win 35-40 games and get demolished by the Celtics and Cavs for the foreseeable future.

[Jcool0]

Yay we’re gonna win 35-40 games and get demolished by the Celtics and Cavs for the foreseeable future.

4 years ago Cleveland won 22 games. There best player was Colin Sexton. Since then they drafted Darius Garland #5, Isaac Okoro #5 and Evan Mobley #3.

[Chi town]

The Giddler showing what he can do with the keys

[PJSteven22]

Yay we’re gonna win 35-40 games and get demolished by the Celtics and Cavs for the foreseeable future.

4 years ago Cleveland won 22 games. There best player was Colin Sexton. Since then they drafted Darius Garland #5, Isaac Okoro #5 and Evan Mobley #3.

They actually tanked. You missed the point again. The issue with Giddey is that he’s too good to let you pick top 5 but he not good enough to lead you anywhere past the first round. We’re essentially a treadmill team.

[WindyCityBorn]

I think at this point 5/150 would be a good deal for the bulls. He might get more.

Yikes

He has earned every penny.