Bears 11.0: Free Agency, College Pro days, Draft & beyond

[Dresden]

You really think Mack is going to get only 8M? Everything I've seen has him at around 20.

Mack isn’t going to get 20M a year and I’d bet a large sum of money on that. I’d be shocked if he got a penny more than 15M and I could be being generous.

PFF says 2/45 for mack, 4/56 (30 guar.) for dalman

PFF's player comparison made 2.9% of cap (equiv. of $8 mil a year for dalman). so obviously spotrac is not factoring in market conditions in their contract projections

$14 mil a year for a center that isn't good in pass protection is a questionable investment at best

I wouldn't throw too much cold water on the idea- there's a lot of other stats out there that would dispute that:

"Dalman wins his assignments with movement and leverage to offset a smaller frame (6-3, 300 pounds). He's a technician on tape, best suited for the zone run game, and his pass block win rate of 95.1% ranked ninth among centers with at least 500 snaps in 2024."

"Dalman has become one of the best centers in the NFL over his time with the Falcons, as he ranked in the top five in PFF overall grade in each of the last two seasons. Even though his main strength is more in the run game, Dalman could immediately make Chicago’s interior trio one of the better interior offensive lines in the entire NFL."

"wrote Pelissero on NFL.com. “He missed time last season with an ankle injury but excelled when he played, allowing two sacks on 295 pass-blocking snaps and finishing with PFF's fifth-best grade among centers. "

[Betta Bulleavit]

I’ll say this. IF this Edge market is going to command the money that some of these projections are saying, I’d much prefer that we target Allen and Dalman in free agency and then see if we can trade back in the draft, gain some extra capital there and just draft an Edge rusher. No sense in spending north of 20M on one when it’s questionable whether or not we are or should be in win now mode.

[dice]

I’ll say this. IF this Edge market is going to command the money that some of these projections are saying, I’d much prefer that we target Allen and Dalman in free agency and then see if we can trade back in the draft, gain some extra capital there and just draft an Edge rusher. No sense in spending north of 20M on one when it’s questionable whether or not we are or should be in win now mode.

a good EDGE is like 3x as important as a good C. i'd avoid dalman like the plague. at the same time, there will be a good EDGE available at #10. i'd be pleasantly shocked w/ a big CB signing

[1985Bear]

Dice - CB at 10 will make everyone’s head explode. But is it part of your positional value mantra of team building?

For me, the main reason to not take Jeanty is that the best RB makes $12m a year. So applying the “Caleb on a rookie deal” logic that we have an extra $40mil to play with cap space during that time. Even if Jeanty is best RB, it will only gain an extra $8-$10m in savings during a Jeanty rookie contract.

Now shift that to LT Will Campbell/ Banks or DE Pearce/ Green at 10 and they hit to be top 5, those positions for top 5 production is $25-$30m. Potential $25 m in cap space during that rookie deal.

For top 10 picks, hard to argue not taking highest positional value ONLY: OT, DE/DT, QB, WR CB.
Never take top 10: TE, RB, G, C, LB, S since the best players at these positions top out at $11-$15m typically.

This concept could apply to entire team building: only draft DLine, OT, WRs etc and sign the off positions S, TE, G etc off the street to ensure a good player, even at a high rate for that position since you don’t plan on drafting them.


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[Almost Retired]

https://www.sportsmockery.com/chicago-bears/teams-most-likely-to-trade-up-with-the-chicago-bears-in-1st-round/

I'm all in favor of trading down to pick up another second round pick. We can net 4 or 5 eventual starters out of this draft, down to our 3rd round pick. Draft an EDGE, Defensive Tackle, O Line, Safety, and WR3.

[1985Bear]

https://www.sportsmockery.com/chicago-bears/teams-most-likely-to-trade-up-with-the-chicago-bears-in-1st-round/

I'm all in favor of trading down to pick up another second round pick. We can net 4 or 5 eventual starters out of this draft, down to our 3rd round pick. Draft an EDGE, Defensive Tackle, O Line, Safety, and WR3.

Getting 2 quality starters out of a draft is a good draft. 3 would be an elite draft, 4 or 5 would be the best draft Bears have ever had.

Quality starters who got a second contract:
2021 zero 2nd contracts (Jenkins pending)
2020 Jaylon and Kmet (good draft)
2019 zero (Montgomery?)
2018 Roquan (traded before)
2017 Eddie Jackson Tarik Cohen (good draft bad contracts)
2016 Cody Whithair
2015 zero
2014 Kyle Fuller

129 drafts picks 2014-2021 and 6 players drafted and were given a second contract. It’s not just the Bears draft history being bad, it’s how most teams draft history look. Patriots were winning Super Bowls and team Belicek was one of the worst drafting teams at the time.


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[patryk7754]

Myles garret just got 40 a year from the browns. Can probably officially cross him off as an option.

Von miller was released so that’s another fish in the pond of edge guys.

I believe legal tampering begins tomorrow so we can probably expect some announcements. Maybe we hear about Mack if the marketing/social media teams knows something. But I doubt poles is letting them in his plan

[Dresden]

https://www.sportsmockery.com/chicago-bears/teams-most-likely-to-trade-up-with-the-chicago-bears-in-1st-round/

I'm all in favor of trading down to pick up another second round pick. We can net 4 or 5 eventual starters out of this draft, down to our 3rd round pick. Draft an EDGE, Defensive Tackle, O Line, Safety, and WR3.

Getting 2 quality starters out of a draft is a good draft. 3 would be an elite draft, 4 or 5 would be the best draft Bears have ever had.

Quality starters who got a second contract:
2021 zero 2nd contracts (Jenkins pending)
2020 Jaylon and Kmet (good draft)
2019 zero (Montgomery?)
2018 Roquan (traded before)
2017 Eddie Jackson Tarik Cohen (good draft bad contracts)
2016 Cody Whithair
2015 zero
2014 Kyle Fuller

129 drafts picks 2014-2021 and 6 players drafted and were given a second contract. It’s not just the Bears draft history being bad, it’s how most teams draft history look. Patriots were winning Super Bowls and team Belicek was one of the worst drafting teams at the time.


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That's an interesting look at how often draft picks "hit". So where do the rest of the starters come from? That's only 6 of the 22. The remainder can't all be free agents. Some must be draftees who just didn't get a second contract for one reason or another.

[Dresden]

Myles garret just got 40 a year from the browns. Can probably officially cross him off as an option.

Von miller was released so that’s another fish in the pond of edge guys.

I believe legal tampering begins tomorrow so we can probably expect some announcements. Maybe we hear about Mack if the marketing/social media teams knows something. But I doubt poles is letting them in his plan

That makes getting Trey Hendrickson for a 3rd rounder look even better.

[Dresden]

Dice - CB at 10 will make everyone’s head explode. But is it part of your positional value mantra of team building?

For me, the main reason to not take Jeanty is that the best RB makes $12m a year. So applying the “Caleb on a rookie deal” logic that we have an extra $40mil to play with cap space during that time. Even if Jeanty is best RB, it will only gain an extra $8-$10m in savings during a Jeanty rookie contract.

Now shift that to LT Will Campbell/ Banks or DE Pearce/ Green at 10 and they hit to be top 5, those positions for top 5 production is $25-$30m. Potential $25 m in cap space during that rookie deal.

For top 10 picks, hard to argue not taking highest positional value ONLY: OT, DE/DT, QB, WR CB.
Never take top 10: TE, RB, G, C, LB, S since the best players at these positions top out at $11-$15m typically.

This concept could apply to entire team building: only draft DLine, OT, WRs etc and sign the off positions S, TE, G etc off the street to ensure a good player, even at a high rate for that position since you don’t plan on drafting them.


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Don't you also have to factor in what Jeanty brings on the field? These guys just aren't contracts, their play is important too.

And it's possible whatever data this rubric of positional value is based on is now shifting back to RB's having more value.

[Dresden]

Dice - CB at 10 will make everyone’s head explode. But is it part of your positional value mantra of team building?

For me, the main reason to not take Jeanty is that the best RB makes $12m a year. So applying the “Caleb on a rookie deal” logic that we have an extra $40mil to play with cap space during that time. Even if Jeanty is best RB, it will only gain an extra $8-$10m in savings during a Jeanty rookie contract.

Now shift that to LT Will Campbell/ Banks or DE Pearce/ Green at 10 and they hit to be top 5, those positions for top 5 production is $25-$30m. Potential $25 m in cap space during that rookie deal.

For top 10 picks, hard to argue not taking highest positional value ONLY: OT, DE/DT, QB, WR CB.
Never take top 10: TE, RB, G, C, LB, S since the best players at these positions top out at $11-$15m typically.

This concept could apply to entire team building: only draft DLine, OT, WRs etc and sign the off positions S, TE, G etc off the street to ensure a good player, even at a high rate for that position since you don’t plan on drafting them.


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Don't you also have to factor in what Jeanty brings on the field? These guys just aren't contracts, their play is important too.

And it's possible whatever data this rubric of positional value is based on is now shifting back to RB's having more value.

[patryk7754]

Myles garret just got 40 a year from the browns. Can probably officially cross him off as an option.

Von miller was released so that’s another fish in the pond of edge guys.

I believe legal tampering begins tomorrow so we can probably expect some announcements. Maybe we hear about Mack if the marketing/social media teams knows something. But I doubt poles is letting them in his plan

That makes getting Trey Hendrickson for a 3rd rounder look even better.

I think my concern would be what his price would be. If he was 3/4 years younger, whatever. But he can easily command close to what Crosby and Garrett are getting. Which would eat up too much cap for where we are, I think

[1985Bear]

Dice - CB at 10 will make everyone’s head explode. But is it part of your positional value mantra of team building?

For me, the main reason to not take Jeanty is that the best RB makes $12m a year. So applying the “Caleb on a rookie deal” logic that we have an extra $40mil to play with cap space during that time. Even if Jeanty is best RB, it will only gain an extra $8-$10m in savings during a Jeanty rookie contract.

Now shift that to LT Will Campbell/ Banks or DE Pearce/ Green at 10 and they hit to be top 5, those positions for top 5 production is $25-$30m. Potential $25 m in cap space during that rookie deal.

For top 10 picks, hard to argue not taking highest positional value ONLY: OT, DE/DT, QB, WR CB.
Never take top 10: TE, RB, G, C, LB, S since the best players at these positions top out at $11-$15m typically.

This concept could apply to entire team building: only draft DLine, OT, WRs etc and sign the off positions S, TE, G etc off the street to ensure a good player, even at a high rate for that position since you don’t plan on drafting them.


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Don't you also have to factor in what Jeanty brings on the field? These guys just aren't contracts, their play is important too.

And it's possible whatever data this rubric of positional value is based on is now shifting back to RB's having more value.

Yes. If Jeanty brought Barkley production, it is only worth only about $12m in savings. We could have signed Barkley for $14m or blew Philly out of water to get him.

The point is getting Jeanty at 10 and having him on a rookie contract for 5 years even if he is as productive as Saquan, it would allow us to carry only about $10 -$13 million dollars elsewhere on roster.

We take Banks/ Campbell at 10 and have both Tackles on Rookie deal could be as impactful as a rookie QB deal.

Conceptually, It’s why I would sign Dahlman for $15m a year over drafting Grey Zabel (C) at 10.

Side note: Dresden, your Bears takes are as consistent and grounded in reality as it gets around here. Keep posting!


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[1985Bear]

https://www.sportsmockery.com/chicago-bears/teams-most-likely-to-trade-up-with-the-chicago-bears-in-1st-round/

I'm all in favor of trading down to pick up another second round pick. We can net 4 or 5 eventual starters out of this draft, down to our 3rd round pick. Draft an EDGE, Defensive Tackle, O Line, Safety, and WR3.

Getting 2 quality starters out of a draft is a good draft. 3 would be an elite draft, 4 or 5 would be the best draft Bears have ever had.

Quality starters who got a second contract:
2021 zero 2nd contracts (Jenkins pending)
2020 Jaylon and Kmet (good draft)
2019 zero (Montgomery?)
2018 Roquan (traded before)
2017 Eddie Jackson Tarik Cohen (good draft bad contracts)
2016 Cody Whithair
2015 zero
2014 Kyle Fuller

129 drafts picks 2014-2021 and 6 players drafted and were given a second contract. It’s not just the Bears draft history being bad, it’s how most teams draft history look. Patriots were winning Super Bowls and team Belicek was one of the worst drafting teams at the time.


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That's an interesting look at how often draft picks "hit". So where do the rest of the starters come from? That's only 6 of the 22. The remainder can't all be free agents. Some must be draftees who just didn't get a second contract for one reason or another.

Of the Bears 11 offensive starters:
Caleb, Rome, Darnell, Braxton: Rookie Deals
Kmet- (Successful draft pick 2nd Contract)
Other 7 are Free Agents

Defense:
Dexter, Gordon, Brisker, Tyrique: Rookie Deals
Jaylon - resigned.
Other 7 are free agents.

60% are free agents
36% are rookie contracts
Plus Kmet Jaylon.

I guess it’s just an exercise to keep my draft expectations in check. If all 8 of our starters on rookie contracts all get a 2nd contract from the Bears, Poles would be the best GM in history.
(My guess is Caleb, Rome, Darnell, Gordon, & Dexter will get a second deal. It’s why I think Poles is doing a good job)

You can use Tevin Jenkins to tell how you should feel about draft picks? Was that a good pick or a bad use of a high second round pick? Doesn’t look like we will sign him. Someone will, for over $10m ( maybe the same amount that Saquan Barkley makes!!).

I think Tevin is a good player but didn’t work out here, and I thought he was the right pick at the time. Bears are moving on, just like they did 123 times out of 129 picks.


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[molepharmer]

Current Bears players possibly on 53 man opening day roster, along with positional needs based on the 2024 opening day (OD) roster.
2024 OD / need______39 listed
.....10 OL / 3________(OT) - Kiran A, D Wright, B Jones
___________________(OG) - B Murray, J Tuney, J Jackson
___________________(C) - R Bates
___________________(QB) - C Williams, T Bagent
......4 RB / 1________(RB) - Swift, R Johnson, I Wheeler
......3 TE / 1________(TE) - Kmet, D Smythe
.....6 WR / 3________(WR) - DJ Moore, Rome O, Tyler S
___________________(P/K) - Taylor, Santos
.......1 LS / 1________(LS) -
___________________(KR/PR) - [likely one of the WR]

.....10 DL / 3________(DE) - Sweat, A Booker, D Robinson
.__________________(DT) - Dexter, Pickens, Billings, C Williams
......5 LB / 1________(LB) - Edwards, Edmunds, Sewell, A Ogbongbemiga
.....10 DB / 1________(CB) - Gordon, Stevenson, T Smith, J Johnson, J Blackwell
___________________(S) - Brisker, J Owens, E Hicks, Byard

So the total needed is 14, with these 39 to get to 53 man opening day. Figure at least 5 draft picks will fill some of these spots and at least a couple of these guys will likely not be on the 53 man. Not included but already signed for 2025, D Hardy (DE), J McFadden (G), A Speed (CB) and J Ford (DT).

[patryk7754]

I think with FA basically starting tomorrow, I've "finalized" my wishlist for free agents.

Khalil Mack, DE
Ryan Kelly, C (Dalman, Bozeman, and Josh Myers would be good backup options)
Tyler Lockett, WR3
Teddy Bridgewater, QB
Shaq Thompson, LB
Jaylon Moore, LT

On draft night, I would love to see us trade down with the Seahawks for 18, 82 and Leonard Williams (2m cap hit, according to Spotrac).

Our biggest needs entering the draft would be TE2, RB, and depth. I would include LT, but I don't think Poles wants to move on from Braxton Jones.

RD1: Tyler Warren, TE (or Loveland)
RD2: Donovan Ezeiruaku, DE
RD2: Treyveyon Henderson, RB
RD3: Jack Majors, C
RD3: Billy Bowen Jr., S
RD5: Jack Nelson, OT
RD7: Best available CB and DT

Williams
Kmet/Warren
Moore/Odunze/Lockett
Swfit/Henderson/Johnson
Jones/Jackson/Kelly/Thuney/Wright

Mack/Dexter/Williams/Sweat (Ezeiruaku/Billings/Pickens/Booker)
Edwards/Edmunds/Thompson
Johnson/Stevenson/Gordon
Byard/Brisker

[nomorezorro]

gimme mack at EDGE, kelly at C, one of hargrave/allen/campbell at DT and josh reynolds or tim patrick at WR.

[AshyLarrysDiaper]

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[nitetrain8603]

Less than 24 hours before we hear Ryan Poles sign someone right at the start of FA out of left field. If history has taught us anything, it's that he legit goes for players that no one had on the radar and that we don't see as "upgrades".

[patryk7754]

Less than 24 hours before we hear Ryan Poles sign someone right at the start of FA out of left field. If history has taught us anything, it's that he legit goes for players that no one had on the radar and that we don't see as "upgrades".

Will fries was apparently in elmhurst eating bbq and telling ryan bares to come join him on social media. We’ve all kinda defaulted to Jackson playing guard so if they sign fries as well, that would be kinda unexpected