Bears 11.0: Free Agency, College Pro days, Draft & beyond

[dice]

Dice - CB at 10 will make everyone’s head explode. But is it part of your positional value mantra of team building?

yes, but i was referring to free agency. poles doesn't have the balls to explode heads

[dice]

Patriots were winning Super Bowls and team Belicek was one of the worst drafting teams at the time.

that is definitely not true

https://www.samford.edu/sports-analytics/fans/2024/Does-Your-NFL-Team-Draft-to-Win-New-Research-Reveals-Rounds-3-4-and-5-are-the-Key-to-Future-On-Field-Performance

he also drafted 14 pro bowlers in 24 years, which is very good, although team success factors into those subjective honors

[1985Bear]

Patriots were winning Super Bowls and team Belicek was one of the worst drafting teams at the time.

that is definitely not true

https://www.samford.edu/sports-analytics/fans/2024/Does-Your-NFL-Team-Draft-to-Win-New-Research-Reveals-Rounds-3-4-and-5-are-the-Key-to-Future-On-Field-Performance

he also drafted 14 pro bowlers in 24 years, which is very good, although team success factors into those subjective honors

I was referring more to the end of the Pats run. Last Super Bowl was 2019, Bill fired in 2023.

“The New England Patriots have run the gamut when it comes to their past four draft classes.

The Patriots draft in 2019 can be classified as an abject disaster while 2020 really wasn’t much better. But things have turned around for New England as of late, as led by first-rounder Mac Jones, the Patriots are starting to get more out of the players they drafted.

But that still isn’t enough to shield the Patriots from their mighty struggles at the spring event. In a telling statistic from Over The Cap that signals just how poor New England’s recent drafts have been, the Patriots rank dead last in the NFL in the percentage of draft picks from 2019-2022 still on the active roster at 57.9%.”


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[1985Bear]

Patriots were winning Super Bowls and team Belicek was one of the worst drafting teams at the time.

that is definitely not true

https://www.samford.edu/sports-analytics/fans/2024/Does-Your-NFL-Team-Draft-to-Win-New-Research-Reveals-Rounds-3-4-and-5-are-the-Key-to-Future-On-Field-Performance

he also drafted 14 pro bowlers in 24 years, which is very good, although team success factors into those subjective honors

Thanks for posting that article link. I agree that “second contract” is a good measure of how successful a draft pick was.

How they use Wins feels a little fishy. NE happened to hit on some 3 4 5 round guys at a time they had Tom Brady. Article concludes that drafting well in those rounds leads to wins.

Good exercise, but I will never value 4th 5th or 6th round picks as much as the Dice man.


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[Dresden]

Myles garret just got 40 a year from the browns. Can probably officially cross him off as an option.

Von miller was released so that’s another fish in the pond of edge guys.

I believe legal tampering begins tomorrow so we can probably expect some announcements. Maybe we hear about Mack if the marketing/social media teams knows something. But I doubt poles is letting them in his plan

That makes getting Trey Hendrickson for a 3rd rounder look even better.

I think my concern would be what his price would be. If he was 3/4 years younger, whatever. But he can easily command close to what Crosby and Garrett are getting. Which would eat up too much cap for where we are, I think

That's a valid concern I guess. No use getting him for just one year.

[Dresden]

Dice - CB at 10 will make everyone’s head explode. But is it part of your positional value mantra of team building?

For me, the main reason to not take Jeanty is that the best RB makes $12m a year. So applying the “Caleb on a rookie deal” logic that we have an extra $40mil to play with cap space during that time. Even if Jeanty is best RB, it will only gain an extra $8-$10m in savings during a Jeanty rookie contract.

Now shift that to LT Will Campbell/ Banks or DE Pearce/ Green at 10 and they hit to be top 5, those positions for top 5 production is $25-$30m. Potential $25 m in cap space during that rookie deal.

For top 10 picks, hard to argue not taking highest positional value ONLY: OT, DE/DT, QB, WR CB.
Never take top 10: TE, RB, G, C, LB, S since the best players at these positions top out at $11-$15m typically.

This concept could apply to entire team building: only draft DLine, OT, WRs etc and sign the off positions S, TE, G etc off the street to ensure a good player, even at a high rate for that position since you don’t plan on drafting them.


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Don't you also have to factor in what Jeanty brings on the field? These guys just aren't contracts, their play is important too.

And it's possible whatever data this rubric of positional value is based on is now shifting back to RB's having more value.

Yes. If Jeanty brought Barkley production, it is only worth only about $12m in savings. We could have signed Barkley for $14m or blew Philly out of water to get him.

The point is getting Jeanty at 10 and having him on a rookie contract for 5 years even if he is as productive as Saquan, it would allow us to carry only about $10 -$13 million dollars elsewhere on roster.

We take Banks/ Campbell at 10 and have both Tackles on Rookie deal could be as impactful as a rookie QB deal.

Conceptually, It’s why I would sign Dahlman for $15m a year over drafting Grey Zabel (C) at 10.

Side note: Dresden, your Bears takes are as consistent and grounded in reality as it gets around here. Keep posting!


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Well thanks, but isn't it likely that Jeanty could be much more valuable on the field than a left tackle- unless that left tackle was another Trent Williams? I think when Barkley was on the market, nobody knew that he would blow up like this- there was a concern that his best days might be behind him. Jeanty Is viewed as being in the Barkley, Bijan tier, while none of the LT's in this draft are that special.

The one point I do see in favor of taking a tackle, is that tackles typically last 10-15 years in the league, while it's pretty rare for RB's to have careers that long. You might only get 3-4-5 years of Jeanty at his best before injuries take their toll.

[fleet]

Sign Mack and Dalman. Draft Stewart/Williams in FR. DT and OL in 2R. RB in 3R

[dice]

browns gonna brown. 40 mil a year, 3 yrs guaranteed for a freaking lineman who doesn't wanna be there...but for the new yacht

[biggestbullsfan]

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Free agency is such a sham lol

[biggestbullsfan]

Sign Mack and Dalman. Draft Stewart/Williams in FR. DT and OL in 2R. RB in 3R

Im leaning towards trading down if one of the top
OT/DL doesn’t fall. If we trade into the 20s maybe we can get a future 1st. Remember how much we gave up to get Justin.

Also, Stewart’s numbers concern me and Williams didn’t perform great this season. He was the top prospect going into the year and probably not even going to be top 10. Also his injuries concern me. But tomorrow should give us a clear idea of where we are drafting.

[biggestbullsfan]

That makes getting Trey Hendrickson for a 3rd rounder look even better.

I think my concern would be what his price would be. If he was 3/4 years younger, whatever. But he can easily command close to what Crosby and Garrett are getting. Which would eat up too much cap for where we are, I think

That's a valid concern I guess. No use getting him for just one year.

The benefit is he is on a 1 year deal. If we signed him to a 2 year extension, it would line up perfectly with Caleb’s contract extension. He would probably walk at that point but ideally we would have developed his replacement.

I’m all for trading for him. But if we go another route, I’m ok with that as well. Personally I think DT depth is just as big as our second DE. Hopefully we make some noise tomorrow.

[Jeffster81]

gimme mack at EDGE, kelly at C, one of hargrave/allen/campbell at DT and josh reynolds or tim patrick at WR.

My dude. This is something I want the Bears to do very much.

[patryk7754]

That makes getting Trey Hendrickson for a 3rd rounder look even better.

I think my concern would be what his price would be. If he was 3/4 years younger, whatever. But he can easily command close to what Crosby and Garrett are getting. Which would eat up too much cap for where we are, I think

That's a valid concern I guess. No use getting him for just one year.

Not saying we should be in on him or anything, but I would not be surprised if Tj watt becomes available. I’ve heard that he and the Steelers are in the middle of extension talks. He’s probably going to reset the market again. They just paid DK a record deal and will probably have to pay a qb at least 30plus. Could be one of those out of the blue deals that happens. It would be costly for whoever does the deal tho.

[patryk7754]

If Mack and Dalman are truly going to get 20+ and 15+ then those are probably going to be our only signings for free agency. It would leave us with about 10m in cap and that’s usually around the amount poles likes to keep it. I could see one or two vet min guys (so someone like Tim patrick) but nothing more. Even if Mack and Dalman sign for cheaper, I still don’t think we’d be able to afford one lf the better DTs. I think it’s probably for the best to see what happens after the draft. We might have a shot at getting mason Graham and there are a lot of really good DTs in this draft. Plus, Billings was playing very well before getting hurt, so poles might not be in a rush to find his replacement

[chitowndish]

I feel like we're in kind of a tough spot before the draft because everyone we want is either projected to go before us or they kind of become stretches at where we are at. I think once the draft comes around some guys are going to climb and someone with talent will fall, it happens every year and I think the Bears are in a pretty good spot to take advantage of that. Feels a bit like last year with Rome's pick it seemed like a tough spot but he fell and Bowers was there.

Even if the draft goes as planned and if we don't want Jeanty it's nice to have someone like him there because someone may trade up for him. If he or someone else goes early maybe Grahm drops and we can take advantage by either drafting him or trading out if we aren't convinced.

I think the best thing Poles can do is just try and take care of the needs that the team has with vets (I like the Mack and Kelly or Dalman) and and just be flexible enough to let the draft come to him and react to who is falling. I feel like if we go into this trying to force a particular position we are likely to get burned reaching on someone. I think if this is our highest pick for the reasonable future we need to focus on talent.

[molepharmer]

del

[biggestbullsfan]

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Going to be a fun day lol

[molepharmer]

Good grief. Fun with numbers.
"

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[biggestbullsfan]

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Regardless of how you feel about some of Poles trades, the way he has navigated the salary cap is masterful. Even this offseason with the trades. Gotta wait to see how the extensions look but he’s been great imo.

[patryk7754]

Jaycee Horn getting a record deal probably affects the Gordon extension. Horn has had a significant injury history and probably hasn't live up to they hype (not that he's bad, he's just hardly available) so if he can get a record deal, I imagine someone as useful as Gordon will also get broken off. Previously, I thought it would be lucky if we kept him for around 15m. Now, I wouldn't be shocked if his number isn't closer to 20 a year (if not more).

I noticed Gordon getting a lot more national recognition this past season. He can probably demand enough from us to let him walk or trade him. Assuming he does break the bank, I would trade Stevenson and keep Gordon. Rest the CB2 contract.