2025 Regular Season Thread Vol. 8

[VaDe255]

So it's methodical in the sense of being an outlined method and calculated in the sense of being intentional. As to the actual success rate, we don't get to critical in looking into that.

Buzz words go bzzzzzz

We absolutely can look into the actual success rate. The idea that this strategy is just "luck" doesn’t hold when we analyze the data. Draft position is directly correlated with the likelyhood of landing an all star level talent and teams that stockpile assets increase their chances of success.

Here are the rough success rates based on draft position:

No. 1 pick ~65% to become an all star
Top 2-5 picks ~40% chance
Picks 6-10 ~16% chance
Picks 11-20 ~9% chance
Picks 21-30 ~6% chance

There are always exceptions, but the general trend is absolutely clear, talent is heavily correlated with draft position. There isn't really luck here it's a numbers thing.

So yeah, buzzwords go bzzz, but they also describe a proven strategy. What’s not methodical is Miami’s current "hope a star falls into our lap" approach (sure they got Jimmy and landed an MVP level guy, but how likely is this to happen again?).

I know they won't do it and it's fine with me, just describing how teams successfully reset in the past and a lot of it is correlated to selling players at the right time.

[DayofMourning]

So it's methodical in the sense of being an outlined method and calculated in the sense of being intentional. As to the actual success rate, we don't get to critical in looking into that.

Buzz words go bzzzzzz

You phrased it better than I could. It's a given that more at bats gets you more opportunities, it doesn't change the fact that the draft is largely a crapshoot, especially given the nature of the lottery itself. A soft tank would be more palatable with a fixed draft order ala the NFL, even then its rolling dice that you get the right guy.

100% the draft is a gamble. As is waiting for the next big fish.

We are in a position to get lucky this draft cycle.

I love our current team outside some misfits Id rather see move on.

Each year we have to pounce with common sense.

[DayofMourning]

Gr8 discussion happening right now up in here.

Best board on RGM?

[jbsays]

I get the feeling Heat (Riley, Arison, Elisburg) don't like tanking because the one time they tried it they ended up with Beasley. In hindsight they could have taken someone else (Westbrook or Love), but Beasley was consensus #2 pick. I guess it worked out with Lebron and Bosh coming here, but I'm sure they'd rather try to go that route than tank and end up with an unproven rookie.

[greg4012]

So it's methodical in the sense of being an outlined method and calculated in the sense of being intentional. As to the actual success rate, we don't get to critical in looking into that.

Buzz words go bzzzzzz

We absolutely can look into the actual success rate. The idea that this strategy is just "luck" doesn’t hold when we analyze the data. Draft position is directly correlated with the likelihood of landing an all star level talent and teams that stockpile assets increase their chances of success.

Here are the rough success rates based on draft position:

No. 1 pick ~65% to become an all star
Top 2-5 picks ~40% chance
Picks 6-10 ~16% chance
Picks 11-20 ~9% chance
Picks 21-30 ~6% chance

There are always exceptions, but the general trend is absolutely clear, talent is heavily correlated with draft position. There isn't really luck here it's a numbers thing.

So yeah, buzzwords go bzzz, but they also describe a proven strategy. What’s not methodical is Miami’s current "hope a star falls into our lap" approach (sure they got Jimmy and landed an MVP level guy, but how likely is this to happen again?).

I know they won't do it and it's fine with me, just describing how teams successfully reset in the past and a lot of it is correlated to selling players at the right time.

So those numbers reflect guide posts that one can choose to navigate to understand odds to "get an All-Star". Now, what if the end game is not to "get an All-Star"? What if the end game is to build a contender (which naturally should consist of at least 2 all-star level players that fit together timeline wise and skillset wise) within the parameters of the Payroll restrictions?

No one is denying that drafting at the top of the draft affords one a better opportunity of having the pick of the litter in a given draft. I just reject the notion of making it out to be anything more than that.

There's also the multitude of years that a team is waiting for just the right pick and the lottery to unfold just the right way and for the draft class to have just the right talent pool and that draft pick to fit just right with the rest of the roster and for their to be just the right pool of interested free agents that will complement the developing core of players. [Was there mention of "getting lucky" earlier on this thread??]

Ignoring how many NBA teams have been playing the pray-for-my-early-draft-picks-to-be-the-ones-to-change-everything-game is not calculated. It's just a variation of where hope is getting pumped.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

So it's methodical in the sense of being an outlined method and calculated in the sense of being intentional. As to the actual success rate, we don't get to critical in looking into that.

Buzz words go bzzzzzz

You phrased it better than I could. It's a given that more at bats gets you more opportunities, it doesn't change the fact that the draft is largely a crapshoot, especially given the nature of the lottery itself. A soft tank would be more palatable with a fixed draft order ala the NFL, even then its rolling dice that you get the right guy.

100% the draft is a gamble. As is waiting for the next big fish.

We are in a position to get lucky this draft cycle.

I love our current team outside some misfits Id rather see move on.

Each year we have to pounce with common sense.

To me just seems like a much faster turnaround if we get aggressive in the trade market considering we already have our anchor who basically guarantees a top 10 defense in the league regardless of supporting cast and has been key in deep playoff runs completely locking up guys like Embiid for entire games or locking down the Giannis of the world in the final quarter when it matters most. Just be aggressive to build the team for once and stop sitting on your hands, let’s see what we can do. Should’ve taken this stance while Jimmy was here too tho

[greg4012]

Utah traded Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert before the start of the 2022-2023 season for boat loads of picks. 3 years later and they're sitting at 15th in the Western Conference with zero playoff appearances since those trades and the best prospect they've drafted since then is looking like Kyle Filipowski (2nd round pick)--a player whose upside case is slightly better Kelly O. They have a lot of picks to work with into the future. So it looks like their 2022 action to rebuild may bear fruit in 2030 or so if things fall just right. I wonder if the success they achieve after punting a decade will match Miami's most recent run.

New Orleans traded away Anthony Davis and went full-blown rebuild in 2019. They seemingly struck gold by getting one of the few generational draft prospects that only comes around once every 5 years or so in Zion. They've played in a total of 10 playoff games since the AD trade (never advancing past rd 1) and currently sit at 14th in the WC.

NBA is littered with examples of tank and rebuild gone to sh*t. There is not one tried and true strategy.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

**** gets real when we miss the playoffs this year and unprotect our 2026 and 2028 first rounders. Our hand will finally be forced, the FO has no option but aggressiveness, they need to be smart about it though.

[MettaWorldPanda]

If we tank this year which we aren't even in a real tank there’s no chance of tanking next year. It becomes win now mode next year. I assume we keep one pick and trade the other for a win now vet.

[MettaWorldPanda]

**** gets real when we miss the playoffs this year and unprotect our 2026 and 2028 first rounders. Our hand will finally be forced, the FO has no option but aggressiveness, they need to be smart about it though.

They definitely need to be smart about it. I assume we keep the lottery pick and flip the late GSW pick attached to Jaime and expiring’s along with possibly 2029 and 2031 or 2032 and see what that gets us. Considering no pick in 2026 we have to keep the lottery pick if we get it this year.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

**** gets real when we miss the playoffs this year and unprotect our 2026 and 2028 first rounders. Our hand will finally be forced, the FO has no option but aggressiveness, they need to be smart about it though.

They definitely need to be smart about it. I assume we keep the lottery pick and flip the late GSW pick attached to Jaime and expiring’s along with possibly 2029 and 2031 or 2032 and see what that gets us. Considering no pick in 2026 we have to keep the lottery pick if we get it this year.

We’re going star hunting, whatever that takes.

[DayofMourning]

You phrased it better than I could. It's a given that more at bats gets you more opportunities, it doesn't change the fact that the draft is largely a crapshoot, especially given the nature of the lottery itself. A soft tank would be more palatable with a fixed draft order ala the NFL, even then its rolling dice that you get the right guy.

100% the draft is a gamble. As is waiting for the next big fish.

We are in a position to get lucky this draft cycle.

I love our current team outside some misfits Id rather see move on.

Each year we have to pounce with common sense.

To me just seems like a much faster turnaround if we get aggressive in the trade market considering we already have our anchor who basically guarantees a top 10 defense in the league regardless of supporting cast and has been key in deep playoff runs completely locking up guys like Embiid for entire games or locking down the Giannis of the world in the final quarter when it matters most. Just be aggressive to build the team for once and stop sitting on your hands, let’s see what we can do. Should’ve taken this stance while Jimmy was here too tho

I love a good trade, yet we are up against some greedy bastards who want it all. We also have some new corporate know it alls who think theyve got it figured out.

I recall that talking head piece that said PHX wanted our whole team for a 37 year old KD. They want 1 billion picks and they want to make luv with ur mum for a 37 year old. Its baffling.

Yet, we have 36 year old Buttholer playing hard in the RS for once for GSW who skews the market.

Pisses me off. Everyone is so malleable.

Anyway, we have 2 picks in the draft this year and a pretty package of expirings. Hope we can pounce.

[MettaWorldPanda]

**** gets real when we miss the playoffs this year and unprotect our 2026 and 2028 first rounders. Our hand will finally be forced, the FO has no option but aggressiveness, they need to be smart about it though.

They definitely need to be smart about it. I assume we keep the lottery pick and flip the late GSW pick attached to Jaime and expiring’s along with possibly 2029 and 2031 or 2032 and see what that gets us. Considering no pick in 2026 we have to keep the lottery pick if we get it this year.

We’re going star hunting, whatever that takes.

It’s literally backs against the wall win now mode next year if we end up in lottery. No sugar coating it. We can’t risk giving OKC any lottery light

[MettaWorldPanda]

100% the draft is a gamble. As is waiting for the next big fish.

We are in a position to get lucky this draft cycle.

I love our current team outside some misfits Id rather see move on.

Each year we have to pounce with common sense.

To me just seems like a much faster turnaround if we get aggressive in the trade market considering we already have our anchor who basically guarantees a top 10 defense in the league regardless of supporting cast and has been key in deep playoff runs completely locking up guys like Embiid for entire games or locking down the Giannis of the world in the final quarter when it matters most. Just be aggressive to build the team for once and stop sitting on your hands, let’s see what we can do. Should’ve taken this stance while Jimmy was here too tho

I love a good trade, yet we are up against some greedy bastards who want it all. We also have some new corporate know it alls who think theyve got it figured out.

I recall that talking head piece that said PHX wanted our whole team for a 37 year old KD. They want 1 billion picks and they want to make luv with ur mum for a 37 year old. Its baffling.

Yet, we have 36 year old Buttholer playing hard in the RS for once for GSW who skews the market.

Pisses me off. Everyone is so malleable.

Anyway, we have 2 picks in the draft this year and a pretty package of expirings. Hope we can pounce.

Think Hawks will be more reasonable with Trae Young but then again we better be ready to pay him too with Rich Paul leading negotiations.

[DayofMourning]

They definitely need to be smart about it. I assume we keep the lottery pick and flip the late GSW pick attached to Jaime and expiring’s along with possibly 2029 and 2031 or 2032 and see what that gets us. Considering no pick in 2026 we have to keep the lottery pick if we get it this year.

We’re going star hunting, whatever that takes.

It’s literally backs against the wall win now mode next year if we end up in lottery. No sugar coating it. We can’t risk giving OKC any lottery light

Feel like OKC will gladly purvey our pick in to a 2040 unprotected. Theyre TOO loaded.

My dream team tbh.

They could translate this abundance in to 30 years of sustainability.

[DayofMourning]

To me just seems like a much faster turnaround if we get aggressive in the trade market considering we already have our anchor who basically guarantees a top 10 defense in the league regardless of supporting cast and has been key in deep playoff runs completely locking up guys like Embiid for entire games or locking down the Giannis of the world in the final quarter when it matters most. Just be aggressive to build the team for once and stop sitting on your hands, let’s see what we can do. Should’ve taken this stance while Jimmy was here too tho

I love a good trade, yet we are up against some greedy bastards who want it all. We also have some new corporate know it alls who think theyve got it figured out.

I recall that talking head piece that said PHX wanted our whole team for a 37 year old KD. They want 1 billion picks and they want to make luv with ur mum for a 37 year old. Its baffling.

Yet, we have 36 year old Buttholer playing hard in the RS for once for GSW who skews the market.

Pisses me off. Everyone is so malleable.

Anyway, we have 2 picks in the draft this year and a pretty package of expirings. Hope we can pounce.

Think Hawks will be more reasonable with Trae Young but then again we better be ready to pay him too with Rich Paul leading negotiations.

You think hes an option? Hes so anti culture in my eyes. Im sure we will probe but hes more of a showman than a winner in my eyes.

[MettaWorldPanda]

I love a good trade, yet we are up against some greedy bastards who want it all. We also have some new corporate know it alls who think theyve got it figured out.

I recall that talking head piece that said PHX wanted our whole team for a 37 year old KD. They want 1 billion picks and they want to make luv with ur mum for a 37 year old. Its baffling.

Yet, we have 36 year old Buttholer playing hard in the RS for once for GSW who skews the market.

Pisses me off. Everyone is so malleable.

Anyway, we have 2 picks in the draft this year and a pretty package of expirings. Hope we can pounce.

Think Hawks will be more reasonable with Trae Young but then again we better be ready to pay him too with Rich Paul leading negotiations.

You think hes an option? Hes so anti culture in my eyes. Im sure we will probe but hes more of a showman than a winner in my eyes.

The Young and Herro back court don’t make much sense other than offensively so i’m guessing it depends on the price but thinking we may want a bigger PG who can play some defense. It’s probably more wishful thinking at this point. We should try checking in on Giddey with a S&T in the restricted market.

[BadMofoPimp]

I am amazed at all the sell the farm getting rid of Bam and Herro posts here. The vast majority of teams that do these scenarios end up being crap teams for a solid decade. It rarely works out for the better. They only see the 1 time out of 10 times this has worked out and think it is a win win situation.

It's a proven and strategic approach that consistently puts franchises in a position to succeed. The key is selling players when they have value but aren’t good enough to win a title, this is how teams land true MVP level talent instead of getting stuck in mediocrity.

OKC kept flipping players like Paul George, Russell Westbrook, and Chris Paul for assets until they secured SGA and Chet Holmgren, with a massive pick stash to build around them.
The Spurs sold high on Dejounte Murray instead of keeping him for no reason, leading to Victor Wembanyama and extra picks for the future.
Even Boston reset at the right time, trading Pierce & Garnett for draft capital that became Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, allowing them to build a contender the right way.

This is a methodical, calculated way to either draft an MVP level player or acquire one through trades. In contrast, competing with mid tier talent while hoping a disgruntled star magically becomes available is not a real strategy that leads to success, we've seen enough of it. Most of their success is tied to Dwayne Wade who was to no surprise a high draft pick.

Trading away a player (Bam) who is bordering Superstar status while being still young and the team Captain is never a recipe for success. Herro I can understand but not Bam. That would be suicide for this team.

[MettaWorldPanda]

I am amazed at all the sell the farm getting rid of Bam and Herro posts here. The vast majority of teams that do these scenarios end up being crap teams for a solid decade. It rarely works out for the better. They only see the 1 time out of 10 times this has worked out and think it is a win win situation.

It's a proven and strategic approach that consistently puts franchises in a position to succeed. The key is selling players when they have value but aren’t good enough to win a title, this is how teams land true MVP level talent instead of getting stuck in mediocrity.

OKC kept flipping players like Paul George, Russell Westbrook, and Chris Paul for assets until they secured SGA and Chet Holmgren, with a massive pick stash to build around them.
The Spurs sold high on Dejounte Murray instead of keeping him for no reason, leading to Victor Wembanyama and extra picks for the future.
Even Boston reset at the right time, trading Pierce & Garnett for draft capital that became Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, allowing them to build a contender the right way.

This is a methodical, calculated way to either draft an MVP level player or acquire one through trades. In contrast, competing with mid tier talent while hoping a disgruntled star magically becomes available is not a real strategy that leads to success, we've seen enough of it. Most of their success is tied to Dwayne Wade who was to no surprise a high draft pick.

Trading away a player (Bam) who is bordering Superstar status while being still young and the team Captain is never a recipe for success. Herro I can understand but not Bam. That would be suicide for this team.

100 percent

[BadMofoPimp]

It's a proven and strategic approach that consistently puts franchises in a position to succeed. The key is selling players when they have value but aren’t good enough to win a title, this is how teams land true MVP level talent instead of getting stuck in mediocrity.

OKC kept flipping players like Paul George, Russell Westbrook, and Chris Paul for assets until they secured SGA and Chet Holmgren, with a massive pick stash to build around them.
The Spurs sold high on Dejounte Murray instead of keeping him for no reason, leading to Victor Wembanyama and extra picks for the future.
Even Boston reset at the right time, trading Pierce & Garnett for draft capital that became Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, allowing them to build a contender the right way.

This is a methodical, calculated way to either draft an MVP level player or acquire one through trades. In contrast, competing with mid tier talent while hoping a disgruntled star magically becomes available is not a real strategy that leads to success, with seen enough of it. Most of their success is tied to Dwayne Wade who was to no surprise a high draft pick.

I'm not sure strategic, methodical, or calculated are the words I would use. What this really comes down to if we're being honest is being lucky (or in some cases, unlucky). The handful of lucky teams are mentioned, the unlucky ones who have been trying and failing to draft the next big thing for the past 10, 20+ years are all excluded for some reason.

It’s methodical and calculated because it’s a repeatable strategy, not just blind luck. Consistently selling high on good-but-not-great players, stacking assets, and put yourself in position to draft an MVP-level guy or to trade for one if one becomes available should be super easy for a franchise with a great culture and location.

Luck plays a role in everything, but having more picks, more shots at a star, and more trade flexibility isn’t luck, it’s smart team-building.

How many teams trade a player of Bams level ever have real shots at a Superstar in the draft. Maybe 1 out of 20 or even 50. Would be completely idiotic to trade away Bam unless it is for the number 1 overall pick. He is Heat Culture through and through.