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Josh Giddey - Conundrum Killer

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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#1381 » by League Circles » Mon Mar 10, 2025 3:16 pm

Jcool0 wrote:
League Circles wrote:
Jcool0 wrote:
He has played better D this year, which you acknowledge and that is all that matters. He learned something and got better. Shocking that happened with a 21 year old player i know. This is a big nothing burger.

I disagree that him playing better D this year is all that matters. He's still not good on D, and he still doesn't truly believe in the importance of strong defense by all players at all times - he believes it makes sense and acceptable to modulate your effort based on how effective your teammates are on that half of the ball. It reflects poorly on his competitive temperament (relative to the mindset of champion type players) and poorly on his leadership ability (throwing his teammates under the bus to a degree).

It's like he's squinting hard to see what could help him in his contract year and trying to do and say the right thing, but frankly missing the point. I remember Eddy Curry kinda played half acceptable defense finally in his contract year once upon a time.

Again, not saying this is a deal breaker, but it gives a sense of what his mindset is, which is that what he does himself is "enough" unless it becomes a glaring issue forced upon him by coaches, fans, media etc and only then will he concede a bit that it wasn't enough and it's time for him to "take on bigger challenges", which is a lie in the way we'd understand it (guarding more difficult players). To him, the new bigger challenge is simply not relaxing on defense.

I'm NOT saying that Coby necessarily is or will be a better player than Giddey, but one reason I really like him is that he always plays hard and actually speaks as a leader and I can tell he truly believes that high level play is really difficult and a constant challenge to always try to embrace and do your best at or suffer the consequences. He's clearly a better leader IMO (and I also believe he's definitely a better defender but I know that's debatable). Giddey seems like a good guy who isn't lazy or selfish but who might not embrace the urgency and difficulty of playing hard all the time. Vuc is a lot like this. Vuc seems to genuinely think it's OK for him to not contest shots. It's the difference between thinking something is OK until it's a glaring problem being shoved in your face, and thinking that everything is a glaring problem until you're winning a championship despite it.


You can still be a good player and not make the all defense team every year. Tons of NBA players do it every year. As for Coby... He has been the same player since his rookie year. So i really dont care how hard he plays because it doesn't change the player he is. He is never going to be James Harden, he is going to be Ben Gordon. Which isnt a bad thing. But lets not pretend it really helps the Bulls long term. Which is why i hope he is traded this off season. I dont need Giddey to be a top 20 players to find value in what he does and to be okay giving him a good contract to stick around a few years.

You can also be a good player and not make sense for a bad team to sign to a long term contract.
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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#1382 » by Jcool0 » Mon Mar 10, 2025 3:22 pm

League Circles wrote:
Jcool0 wrote:
League Circles wrote:I disagree that him playing better D this year is all that matters. He's still not good on D, and he still doesn't truly believe in the importance of strong defense by all players at all times - he believes it makes sense and acceptable to modulate your effort based on how effective your teammates are on that half of the ball. It reflects poorly on his competitive temperament (relative to the mindset of champion type players) and poorly on his leadership ability (throwing his teammates under the bus to a degree).

It's like he's squinting hard to see what could help him in his contract year and trying to do and say the right thing, but frankly missing the point. I remember Eddy Curry kinda played half acceptable defense finally in his contract year once upon a time.

Again, not saying this is a deal breaker, but it gives a sense of what his mindset is, which is that what he does himself is "enough" unless it becomes a glaring issue forced upon him by coaches, fans, media etc and only then will he concede a bit that it wasn't enough and it's time for him to "take on bigger challenges", which is a lie in the way we'd understand it (guarding more difficult players). To him, the new bigger challenge is simply not relaxing on defense.

I'm NOT saying that Coby necessarily is or will be a better player than Giddey, but one reason I really like him is that he always plays hard and actually speaks as a leader and I can tell he truly believes that high level play is really difficult and a constant challenge to always try to embrace and do your best at or suffer the consequences. He's clearly a better leader IMO (and I also believe he's definitely a better defender but I know that's debatable). Giddey seems like a good guy who isn't lazy or selfish but who might not embrace the urgency and difficulty of playing hard all the time. Vuc is a lot like this. Vuc seems to genuinely think it's OK for him to not contest shots. It's the difference between thinking something is OK until it's a glaring problem being shoved in your face, and thinking that everything is a glaring problem until you're winning a championship despite it.


You can still be a good player and not make the all defense team every year. Tons of NBA players do it every year. As for Coby... He has been the same player since his rookie year. So i really dont care how hard he plays because it doesn't change the player he is. He is never going to be James Harden, he is going to be Ben Gordon. Which isnt a bad thing. But lets not pretend it really helps the Bulls long term. Which is why i hope he is traded this off season. I dont need Giddey to be a top 20 players to find value in what he does and to be okay giving him a good contract to stick around a few years.

You can also be a good player and not make sense for a bad team to sign to a long term contract.


One mans bad contract is another mans value signing.
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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#1383 » by League Circles » Mon Mar 10, 2025 3:27 pm

Jcool0 wrote:
League Circles wrote:
Jcool0 wrote:
You can still be a good player and not make the all defense team every year. Tons of NBA players do it every year. As for Coby... He has been the same player since his rookie year. So i really dont care how hard he plays because it doesn't change the player he is. He is never going to be James Harden, he is going to be Ben Gordon. Which isnt a bad thing. But lets not pretend it really helps the Bulls long term. Which is why i hope he is traded this off season. I dont need Giddey to be a top 20 players to find value in what he does and to be okay giving him a good contract to stick around a few years.

You can also be a good player and not make sense for a bad team to sign to a long term contract.


One mans bad contract is another mans value signing.

Even a good contract for a good player can be a bad idea for a bad team to commit to under certain circumstances. We MIGHT be in those circumstances with Giddey.
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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#1384 » by Jcool0 » Mon Mar 10, 2025 3:31 pm

League Circles wrote:
Jcool0 wrote:
League Circles wrote:You can also be a good player and not make sense for a bad team to sign to a long term contract.


One mans bad contract is another mans value signing.

Even a good contract for a good player can be a bad idea for a bad team to commit to under certain circumstances. We MIGHT be in those circumstances with Giddey.


There are no circumstances it wouldn't be a good idea as of right now to pass on signing him.
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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#1385 » by Chi town » Mon Mar 10, 2025 4:15 pm

League Circles wrote:
Chi town wrote:
WindyCityBorn wrote:
He doesn’t need to be elite at it. Just good.


Zo made a big change and became elite on volume and percentage.

3pt shooting keeps improving league wide. 40% on 5 attempts is good. Just above average.

Only a few of the guys with elite volume of 8+ attempts shoot 40% due to the difficulty of the shots they have to take to get to 8+ attempts.

No, Lonzo was certainly never an elite 3 pt shooter.

Lol, there are currently like 16 guys in the entire NBA shooting 40% or better on 5 or more attempts per game. What are you talking about?


Zo was trending there before the injury… this was 3 years ago when attempts league wide were less than today too. 42.3% on 7.4 attempts. Year before 37.8% on 8.3 attempts.

85 players in the league at 4.9 or more attempts. Basically 3 per team. Many at 39.5 or above %. 29 total. About 1 per team.

https://www.espn.com/nba/stats/player/_/stat/3-points/table/offensive/sort/avgThreePointFieldGoalsAttempted/dir/desc
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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#1386 » by League Circles » Mon Mar 10, 2025 4:31 pm

Chi town wrote:
League Circles wrote:
Chi town wrote:
Zo made a big change and became elite on volume and percentage.

3pt shooting keeps improving league wide. 40% on 5 attempts is good. Just above average.

Only a few of the guys with elite volume of 8+ attempts shoot 40% due to the difficulty of the shots they have to take to get to 8+ attempts.

No, Lonzo was certainly never an elite 3 pt shooter.

Lol, there are currently like 16 guys in the entire NBA shooting 40% or better on 5 or more attempts per game. What are you talking about?


Zo was trending there before the injury… this was 3 years ago when attempts league wide were less than today too. 42.3% on 7.4 attempts. Year before 37.8% on 8.3 attempts.

85 players in the league at 4.9 or more attempts. Basically 3 per team. Many at 39.5 or above %. 29 total. About 1 per team.

https://www.espn.com/nba/stats/player/_/stat/3-points/table/offensive/sort/avgThreePointFieldGoalsAttempted/dir/desc

Zo had 35 games of elite 3 pt shooting. Congrats. Same could probably be said for a hundred guards during some cherry picked 35 game segment.

Not sure where you're getting your data from. Even after you move the goalposts, looks like you're including non qualifiers like Chris Duarte in your totals.

So basically we went from you saying that 40% on 5 attempts a game is "just above average" to seeing that it's actually like 6% of the players in the league. I'd bet a lot of money that Giddey will never be a top 6% 3pt shooter in this league considering he's a 5th year pro with child's mechanics AND he shoots mostly wide open AND he's attempting fewer than 4 a game despite playing at very high pace.
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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#1387 » by Chi town » Mon Mar 10, 2025 4:42 pm

League Circles wrote:
Chi town wrote:
League Circles wrote:No, Lonzo was certainly never an elite 3 pt shooter.

Lol, there are currently like 16 guys in the entire NBA shooting 40% or better on 5 or more attempts per game. What are you talking about?


Zo was trending there before the injury… this was 3 years ago when attempts league wide were less than today too. 42.3% on 7.4 attempts. Year before 37.8% on 8.3 attempts.

85 players in the league at 4.9 or more attempts. Basically 3 per team. Many at 39.5 or above %. 29 total. About 1 per team.

https://www.espn.com/nba/stats/player/_/stat/3-points/table/offensive/sort/avgThreePointFieldGoalsAttempted/dir/desc

Zo had 35 games of elite 3 pt shooting. Congrats. Same could probably be said for a hundred guards during some cherry picked 35 game segment.

Not sure where you're getting your data from. Even after you move the goalposts, looks like you're including non qualifiers like Chris Duarte in your totals.

So basically we went from you saying that 40% on 5 attempts a game is "just above average" to seeing that it's actually like 6% of the players in the league. I'd bet a lot of money that Giddey will never be a top 6% 3pt shooter in this league considering he's a 5th year pro with child's mechanics AND he shoots mostly wide open AND he's attempting fewer than 4 a game despite playing at very high pace.


You may be right. I agree his mechanics suck and have said it many times. I also recognize they have improved by 50% in the past 20 games. Much different setup with elbow in. I have also said last summer he didn’t get any time with Patton due to the Olympics and his injury. I expect him to continue to improve mechanics and setup which will help increase volume and get his shot off quicker.

5 attempts won’t be much going fwd. Don’t think Giddey will ever be a “shooter” with volume. That’s why I think 40% is attainable for him. He won’t stretch his volume. There are alot of shooters in the league that could be 40% if they only shot open or wide open 3s like Giddey. Since the trade he’s already trending towards the volume.
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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#1388 » by Andi Obst » Mon Mar 10, 2025 6:00 pm

WindyCityBorn wrote:
Andi Obst wrote:I love this board. Giddey either sucks or he's worth 150 mil.


$25 million per for this production would be one of the biggest steals in the NBA. The only question is whether it is sustainable. I think it is other than the 50 percent 3 point shooting. I think that normalizes around 37 percent. Which is fine and higher than plenty of “stars”.


I have discussed this too many times to do it again, but looking at percentage only is pretty useless when you want to see how good of a shooter an NBA player is. Giddey is taking 6 threes per 100 possessions and many of them are wide open and not self-created. Defenses don't respect him. Is it encouraging that the percentage is going up? Absolutely! Is Giddey on his way to become a good shooter? I doubt it.

And with his future contract, I'm not giving him 25 mil straight away. Let him hit the RFA market. If he finds it there, you match. But he won't.
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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#1389 » by Jcool0 » Mon Mar 10, 2025 6:21 pm

Andi Obst wrote:
WindyCityBorn wrote:
Andi Obst wrote:I love this board. Giddey either sucks or he's worth 150 mil.


$25 million per for this production would be one of the biggest steals in the NBA. The only question is whether it is sustainable. I think it is other than the 50 percent 3 point shooting. I think that normalizes around 37 percent. Which is fine and higher than plenty of “stars”.


I have discussed this too many times to do it again, but looking at percentage only is pretty useless when you want to see how good of a shooter an NBA player is. Giddey is taking 6 threes per 100 possessions and many of them are wide open and not self-created. Defenses don't respect him. Is it encouraging that the percentage is going up? Absolutely! Is Giddey on his way to become a good shooter? I doubt it.

And with his future contract, I'm not giving him 25 mil straight away. Let him hit the RFA market. If he finds it there, you match. But he won't.


Yeah those 17/8/7 guys always have a hard time getting paid.
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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#1390 » by sco » Mon Mar 10, 2025 6:29 pm

Chi town wrote:
sco wrote:
Chi town wrote:Giddey’s clips are always 3+ mins because they show his assists too.

https://youtu.be/anQbqj0rgXI?si=rxWqd46jILuThOzF

The things that stand out to me in what he does that makes a team better are that:

1) He is actually able to penetrate deep into the paint off the dribble in the half court and create gravity.
2) He drives in the paint with his head up and consistently finds both cutters and open 3pt shooters
3) He is able to keep defenders on his back when driving

Those are things that the really good big playmakers do, and something I haven't seen on the Bulls this century.


I think Giddey could lead a top 10 offense if he had a rim runner big that had gravity at the rim AND an elite shooter that had gravity deep beyond the 3pt line. That would stretch a defense so much that there would be lots of easy buckets.

Giddey hasn’t been blitzed yet but it’s coming. I think he will actually feast on it due to him being 6’8 and seeing over the defense and his elite IQ that will take advantage.

That's why I like us having a second "PG" on the floor with him like Ball or Johnson...makes it harder to do that. And to your point, he's a pass-first guy who is always looking for the open man. Seems like both Collins and Matas are looking for open cuts and he finds them.
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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#1391 » by Andi Obst » Mon Mar 10, 2025 7:03 pm

Jcool0 wrote:
Andi Obst wrote:
WindyCityBorn wrote:
$25 million per for this production would be one of the biggest steals in the NBA. The only question is whether it is sustainable. I think it is other than the 50 percent 3 point shooting. I think that normalizes around 37 percent. Which is fine and higher than plenty of “stars”.


I have discussed this too many times to do it again, but looking at percentage only is pretty useless when you want to see how good of a shooter an NBA player is. Giddey is taking 6 threes per 100 possessions and many of them are wide open and not self-created. Defenses don't respect him. Is it encouraging that the percentage is going up? Absolutely! Is Giddey on his way to become a good shooter? I doubt it.

And with his future contract, I'm not giving him 25 mil straight away. Let him hit the RFA market. If he finds it there, you match. But he won't.


Yeah those 17/8/7 guys always have a hard time getting paid.


Please name a team with capspace that might go after Giddey.
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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#1392 » by Jcool0 » Mon Mar 10, 2025 7:07 pm

Andi Obst wrote:
Jcool0 wrote:
Andi Obst wrote:
I have discussed this too many times to do it again, but looking at percentage only is pretty useless when you want to see how good of a shooter an NBA player is. Giddey is taking 6 threes per 100 possessions and many of them are wide open and not self-created. Defenses don't respect him. Is it encouraging that the percentage is going up? Absolutely! Is Giddey on his way to become a good shooter? I doubt it.

And with his future contract, I'm not giving him 25 mil straight away. Let him hit the RFA market. If he finds it there, you match. But he won't.


Yeah those 17/8/7 guys always have a hard time getting paid.


Please name a team with capspace that might go after Giddey.


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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#1393 » by WindyCityBorn » Mon Mar 10, 2025 7:12 pm

Andi Obst wrote:
Jcool0 wrote:
Andi Obst wrote:
I have discussed this too many times to do it again, but looking at percentage only is pretty useless when you want to see how good of a shooter an NBA player is. Giddey is taking 6 threes per 100 possessions and many of them are wide open and not self-created. Defenses don't respect him. Is it encouraging that the percentage is going up? Absolutely! Is Giddey on his way to become a good shooter? I doubt it.

And with his future contract, I'm not giving him 25 mil straight away. Let him hit the RFA market. If he finds it there, you match. But he won't.


Yeah those 17/8/7 guys always have a hard time getting paid.


Please name a team with capspace that might go after Giddey.


He’ll take qualifying off before getting low-balled. We don’t have the leverage you think we do.
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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#1394 » by WindyCityBorn » Mon Mar 10, 2025 7:13 pm

Jcool0 wrote:
Andi Obst wrote:
Jcool0 wrote:
Yeah those 17/8/7 guys always have a hard time getting paid.


Please name a team with capspace that might go after Giddey.


Utah


Could definitely see them giving him a strong offer. He would probably be praying we match it.
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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#1395 » by Donkedave » Mon Mar 10, 2025 7:14 pm

Jcool0 wrote:
Andi Obst wrote:
Jcool0 wrote:
Yeah those 17/8/7 guys always have a hard time getting paid.


Please name a team with capspace that might go after Giddey.


Utah


Utah only 2m under cap to start the season. MLE is all they could offer.
Fan Logic - Doesn’t shot 3’s = No good
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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#1396 » by Andi Obst » Mon Mar 10, 2025 7:15 pm

Jcool0 wrote:
Andi Obst wrote:
Jcool0 wrote:
Yeah those 17/8/7 guys always have a hard time getting paid.


Please name a team with capspace that might go after Giddey.


Utah


Only a real capspace team if John Collins opts out. I'm betting against that.
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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#1397 » by Andi Obst » Mon Mar 10, 2025 7:17 pm

WindyCityBorn wrote:
Andi Obst wrote:
Jcool0 wrote:
Yeah those 17/8/7 guys always have a hard time getting paid.


Please name a team with capspace that might go after Giddey.


He’ll take qualifying off before getting low-balled. We don’t have the leverage you think we do.


I don't want to low-ball him, I want to be realistic for once. We gifted Vuc and Pat money. Time to stop that.
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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#1398 » by Jcool0 » Mon Mar 10, 2025 7:17 pm

Donkedave wrote:
Jcool0 wrote:
Andi Obst wrote:
Please name a team with capspace that might go after Giddey.


Utah


Utah only 2m under cap to start the season. MLE is all they could offer.


If John Collins doesn't opt in they will have 30M and they can still move him if he does.
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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#1399 » by Andi Obst » Mon Mar 10, 2025 7:24 pm

Jcool0 wrote:
Donkedave wrote:
Jcool0 wrote:
Utah


Utah only 2m under cap to start the season. MLE is all they could offer.


If John Collins doesn't opt in they will have 30M and they can still move him if he does.


Moving John Collins so you can make an offer that the Bulls will almost certainly match. Sounds fun!
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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#1400 » by sco » Mon Mar 10, 2025 7:27 pm

Andi Obst wrote:
Jcool0 wrote:
Donkedave wrote:
Utah only 2m under cap to start the season. MLE is all they could offer.


If John Collins doesn't opt in they will have 30M and they can still move him if he does.


Moving John Collins so you can make an offer that the Bulls will almost certainly match. Sounds fun!

Utah and their need for another great white hope. Maybe we can trade them Huerter and Collins for their Collins?
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