2024 - 2025 Blazers prediction thread

[PDXKnight]

The Blazers are ahead of my predicted pace. I'm surprised: the backcourt remains in shambles, and while center has been a strength when Clingan and Williams are on the floor, that's well under half the time. The team has been bad enough to have a worse record, but "credit" where it's due. They'll win more than 20.

Yeah I'm kind of surprised at our record as well. They are pretty good at finishing a tank job so we will see how the final half goes in regards to hitting my 26 prediction. With a tough remaining sos may be hard to hit 30

[dckingsfan]

With 50 games in the books, your Portland Trail Blazers sport a 21 & 29 record with a winning percentage of 0.420 on track to win 34 games. GEE & m0ng0 are the leaders in the clubhouse.

Code: Select all

 Team        PCT     Diff   Top 4   #1 Ovr
 Wizards    0.163   -14.4   52.10%   14.00%
 Jazz       0.229    -7.2   52.10%   14.00%
 Pelicans   0.240    -8.4   52.10%   14.00%
 Hornets    0.255    -5.2   48.10%   12.50%
 Nets       0.327    -6.9   42.10%   10.50%
 Raptors    0.327    -5.1   37.20%    9.00%
 76ers      0.396    -3.6   32.00%    7.50%
 Bulls      0.420    -3.4   26.30%    6.00%
 Blazers    0.420    -5.6   20.30%    4.50%
 Spurs      0.447    -1.6   13.90%    3.00%
 Hawks      0.460    -3.1    9.40%    2.00%
 Magic      0.471    -1.7    7.10%    1.50%
 Pistons    0.500    -1.0    4.80%    1.00%
 Kings      0.510     1.2    2.40%    0.50%
 Suns       0.510    -0.8    2.40%    0.50%

My Tankathon spin netted us the 9th pick in the draft.

[PDXKnight]

With 50 games in the books, your Portland Trail Blazers sport a 21 & 29 record with a winning percentage of 0.420 on track to win 34 games. GEE & m0ng0 are the leaders in the clubhouse.

Code: Select all

 Team        PCT     Diff   Top 4   #1 Ovr
 Wizards    0.163   -14.4   52.10%   14.00%
 Jazz       0.229    -7.2   52.10%   14.00%
 Pelicans   0.240    -8.4   52.10%   14.00%
 Hornets    0.255    -5.2   48.10%   12.50%
 Nets       0.327    -6.9   42.10%   10.50%
 Raptors    0.327    -5.1   37.20%    9.00%
 76ers      0.396    -3.6   32.00%    7.50%
 Bulls      0.420    -3.4   26.30%    6.00%
 Blazers    0.420    -5.6   20.30%    4.50%
 Spurs      0.447    -1.6   13.90%    3.00%
 Hawks      0.460    -3.1    9.40%    2.00%
 Magic      0.471    -1.7    7.10%    1.50%
 Pistons    0.500    -1.0    4.80%    1.00%
 Kings      0.510     1.2    2.40%    0.50%
 Suns       0.510    -0.8    2.40%    0.50%

My Tankathon spin netted us the 9th pick in the draft.

Feels like the 8-9 area has fared pretty well historically

[dckingsfan]

My Tankathon spin netted us the 9th pick in the draft.

Feels like the 8-9 area has fared pretty well historically

Fingers, toes and everything else crossed.

[dckingsfan]

With 60 games in the books your Blazers are 27-33 sporting a .450 winning percentage and on pace to win 37 games. GEE is the leader in the clubhouse.

Code: Select all

Team        PCT     DIFF   Top 4   #1 Over
Wizards    0.172   -12.9   52.10%   14.00%
Hornets    0.241    -7.5   52.10%   14.00%
Jazz       0.254    -7.0   52.10%   14.00%
Pelicans   0.267    -8.0   48.10%   12.50%
Raptors    0.300    -6.0   42.10%   10.50%
76ers      0.345    -4.6   37.20%    9.00%
Nets       0.356    -6.3   32.00%    7.50%
Bulls      0.400    -3.8   26.30%    6.00%
Spurs      0.421    -2.1   20.30%    4.50%
Hawks      0.450    -2.8   13.90%    3.00%
Blazers    0.450    -3.9    9.40%    2.00%
Suns       0.467    -1.9    7.10%    1.50%
Magic      0.475    -1.7    4.80%    1.00%
Heat       0.483    -0.5    2.40%    0.50%

[dckingsfan]

Another note: The Blazers have 14 wins out of their last 20. If they could have just started the season that way

[Tim Lehrbach]

The team is outplaying my expectations, but I continue to believe it's at least a little bit of a fluke. If I'm wrong about that, especially if there is more growth in store for Scoot, Sharpe, Camara, and Clingan, the playoffs may be in sight as early as next year. If I'm right, a regression lies ahead, and the team could be worse next season.

[dckingsfan]

The team is outplaying my expectations, but I continue to believe it's at least a little bit of a fluke. If I'm wrong about that, especially if there is more growth in store for Scoot, Sharpe, Camara, and Clingan, the playoffs may be in sight as early as next year. If I'm right, a regression lies ahead, and the team could be worse next season.

Well, I think the question on regression or not will depend fully on the coaching and whom they play, no?

Clingan had definitely improved during the year (IMO), especially now that he has his mobility back. I definitely see him developing a mid-range game next season and even better defensive reads.

Scoot's improvements have been almost spectacular over the last 20 games.

I see no regression coming from either Avdija or Camara.

Soooo... if next year's coach goes heavy minutes with those 4 players and reduces the load on the "vets", I think we will see a nice improvement. If not, more of the same. Oh, and if the vets decide to pout if they don't get their extensions... well, all bets are off, no?

[dckingsfan]

19 games left, 4 games behind Dallas, 1.5 games behind Phoenix.

Dallas - lost 3 in a row, 4-6 in their last 10
Phoenix - Won 1, 3-7 in the last 10
Portland - Lost 1, 5-5 in their last 10

Next 4 games for Dallas
Memphis, Phoenix, San Antonio, San Antonio

Next 4 games for Phoenix
Denver, Dallas, Memphis, Houston

Next 4 games for Portland
OKC, Detroit, GS, NY

Gonna be tough to make a move with that schedule. They are going to need to pull at least one game out of the hat.

[dckingsfan]

17 games left, 4 games behind Dallas, 2.5 games behind Phoenix.

Dallas - lost 5 in a row, 3-7 in their last 10
Phoenix - Won 1, 4-6 in the last 10
Portland - Lost 3, 5-5 in their last 10

Next 4 games for Dallas
San Antonio, San Antonio, Houston, Philly

Next 4 games for Phoenix
Memphis, Houston, Sac, LAL

Next 4 games for Portland
GS, NY, Toronto, Washington

[zzaj]

17 games left, 4 games behind Dallas, 2.5 games behind Phoenix.

Dallas - lost 5 in a row, 3-7 in their last 10
Phoenix - Won 1, 4-6 in the last 10
Portland - Lost 3, 5-5 in their last 10

Next 4 games for Dallas
San Antonio, San Antonio, Houston, Philly

Next 4 games for Phoenix
Memphis, Houston, Sac, LAL

Next 4 games for Portland
GS, NY, Toronto, Washington

Phoenix has the toughest SOS to close out the season, Blazers will likely pass them. Dallas? Who knows.They have the 8th easiest record remaining and the Blazers have the 10th hardest.

Relatedly, my oh my did the Jazz do an excellent job this season--3rd most difficult end of season, and currently 2nd in the draft. THAT is how you sacrifice a season for a draft pick = Owner, Management, Coach all on the same page, with the same goal.

[dckingsfan]

17 games left, 4 games behind Dallas, 2.5 games behind Phoenix.

Dallas - lost 5 in a row, 3-7 in their last 10
Phoenix - Won 1, 4-6 in the last 10
Portland - Lost 3, 5-5 in their last 10

Next 4 games for Dallas
San Antonio, San Antonio, Houston, Philly

Next 4 games for Phoenix
Memphis, Houston, Sac, LAL

Next 4 games for Portland
GS, NY, Toronto, Washington

Phoenix has the toughest SOS to close out the season, Blazers will likely pass them. Dallas? Who knows.They have the 8th easiest record remaining and the Blazers have the 10th hardest.

Relatedly, my oh my did the Jazz do an excellent job this season--3rd most difficult end of season, and currently 2nd in the draft. THAT is how you sacrifice a season for a draft pick = Owner, Management, Coach all on the same page, with the same goal.

Gonna be interesting. I am not sure Dallas wins another game and Phoenix for all its internal strife seems to be focused again?

And yes, Washington and Utah are focused on the lottery. Charlotte is tanking pretty hard as well along with Brooklyn (although a bit late).

The lottery draw is going to be fascinating.

[dckingsfan]

Missed this by a game but...

With 71 games in the books, the Blazers sport a 32-39 record with a winning percentage of .451 on place to win 37 games.

GEE is the leader in the clubhouse.

[dckingsfan]

11 games left, 2 games behind Dallas, 2 games behind Phoenix.

Dallas - won 1, 2-8 in their last 10
Phoenix - Won 3 in a row, 6-4 in the last 10
Portland - Won 4 in a row, 5-5 in their last 10

Next 4 games for Dallas
Brooklyn, NY, Orlando, Chicago

Next 4 games for Phoenix
Milwaukee, Boston, Minnesota, Houston

Next 4 games for Portland
Boston, Cleveland, Sacramento, NY

[Sinobas]

I think the Blazers have an even shot of making the play in now. Dallas is so injury riddled, and the Kings aren't playing well and have a tough remaining schedule.

If we beat them Thursday, we own the tie breaker.

If they make the play in,they're in a position where if win we lose our draft pick. I'd prefer to not have to give that up until we're better.

All for Larry **** Nace. If Neil Olshey had any honor, he'd bend over and allow a procession of Blazer fans to kick him in the ass.

[Sinobas]

Missed this by a game but...

With 71 games in the books, the Blazers sport a 32-39 record with a winning percentage of .451 on place to win 37 games.

GEE is the leader in the clubhouse.

I always felt like Mike Rice got a special satisfaction out of saying "Alonozo Gee"

[Wizenheimer]

nope. Way too many variables. 30 was splitting the difference on when I thought the tank would start. If it starts early, 23 wins; if it starts really late maybe 37 wins

sorry...quoting myself; obviously, the tank never started. I thought maybe 37 wins, tops, if the Blazers tried to make the play-in (as idiotic as that chase would be)

as for the play-in race

* Blazers are 2 games behind 11th seed Dallas. But the Mavs own the tie-breaker so Blazers are really 3 games behind. And rumor is that Anthony Davis will be returning in the next game or 2. Why? I don't know

* Blazers are 2 games behind 10th seed Phoenix and the Suns have a brutal closing schedule. But they don't own their draft pick so there is no incentive to tank. The only way for Portland to win the tiebreaker with the Suns is if the Blazers win all 5 of their remaining western conference games and the Suns lose all 6 of their WC games. That's very unlikely so Suns will probably own the tiebreaker; meaning Portland is 3 games behind

* Blazers are 3.5 games behind the Kings; but 4 games behind in the loss column. Blazers could win the tiebreaker by beating the Kings, in Sacramento, on Thursday. Effectively, that game will be worth 2 games in the play-in race

[zzaj]

I'll go with 21 wins. Last in the WC and worst in the NBA.

I believe Brooklyn and the Wiz will win more than the Blazers due to playing in the East and having to play each other.

Predictions:

--BOTH Simons and Grant will be traded, and Scoot will miss 30ish games due to injury.

--By season end I believe Deni will emerge as the Blazer's "best" player after struggling a bit the first 15 games or so.

--The Blazers will pick second in 2025 and choose either Ace Bailey or Dylan Harper.

--Scoot will improve pretty dramatically at the rim and to a lesser extent, his 3pt%.

--Both Scoot and Sharpe will continue to be lost defensively, and not make much headway on that end.

Also quoting myself...

Looks like mine was more of a "will it into being" than anything else.
Am happy to be wrong about a couple of those (Scoot), but some of them I was pretty dead on--looking at Deni here.

I am NOT happy that the Blazers didn't trade Simons and Grant for anything, and wish they were closer to the 21 wins of my prediction.

[GEE]

Just picked up win #35, with no chnce of getting 40.

[dckingsfan]

With the season coming to an end, your Blazers finish the season with a 36-46 record.

GEE is the winner in the clubhouse. Depending on the tie breaker with the Suns, the Blazers have a 26.30% or 20.30% chance of picking top 4 and a 6.00% or 4.50% chance of #1.

To the winners go the spoils, Jody Allen made the following donation - kind of a do-it-yourself fixit up job if you will. She called it "vintage".