2024-2025 Regular Season Game 66: Orlando Magic (30-35) at Houston Rockets (39-25) - 8pm

[eyriq]

Suggs off, Defensive Rating 112.33
Suggs on, Defensive Rating 106.83

That is a nice +5.5 point bump in defensive rating when Suggs is on vs off. His defensive impact is undeniable.

Now do offensive rating.....

Suggs off, Offensive Rating 109.27
Suggs on, Offensive Rating 107.77

He leaves a bit to be desired offensively

[CocoaFan]

So who do we replace Mosley with? Are there any retreads worth considering? My favorite retreads have been snatched up already (that I can think of anyway). I view guys like Stotts and Mike Brown as great assistants but wouldn’t want them as head coaches. I could see Nurse getting fired but he has lost his luster IMO.

As for PBO options, who knows? Those guys are often in the shadows and outside of the media focus. Morey may also get fired so he may be an option but he also has made some really questionable decisions.

Myers from Golden State might be available if he wants to give up his TV gig arguing with Stephen A. Smith

[eyriq]

So who do we replace Mosley with? Are there any retreads worth considering? My favorite retreads have been snatched up already (that I can think of anyway). I view guys like Stotts and Mike Brown as great assistants but wouldn’t want them as head coaches. I could see Nurse getting fired but he has lost his luster IMO.

As for PBO options, who knows? Those guys are often in the shadows and outside of the media focus. Morey may also get fired so he may be an option but he also has made some really questionable decisions.

Myers from Golden State might be available if he wants to give up his TV gig arguing with Stephen A. Smith

He does not impress me at all, and his two timeline strategy was terrible.

[JoshuaPotter]

Womp womp. This is so hard to watch. We just do not have offensive firepower and that just isn't something I was expecting to say in 2025.

NBA offense in 2025 is nuclear warfare, Magic on offense have spears and stones

Since my return to watching basketball (my parents started dieing around the time Magic became bad and so when I say it was a little bit of "everything" that made me walk away it really was.) I missed the development of the NBA offense around the 3-ball. Simply put, I do understand the math behind how the current offense is supposed to work.

This isn't just a "stuck in our ways" approach. It's a little worse then that. We don't have to be a top 10 offense for me to love watching them play, I actually love putting defense first, but what we have done vs defense first is defense above literally anything else. In 80s / 90s era of baketball this would be fun and result in 60-70 point opponent games.

Too many offensively favorable rule changes + not enough players who can take advantage of the rule changes or at least have a step back 3 that is 30% accurate is pardon the expression, killing us.

[JoshuaPotter]

Suggs off, Defensive Rating 112.33
Suggs on, Defensive Rating 106.83

That is a nice +5.5 point bump in defensive rating when Suggs is on vs off. His defensive impact is undeniable.

Now do offensive rating.....

Suggs off, Offensive Rating 109.27
Suggs on, Offensive Rating 107.77

He leaves a bit to be desired offensively

Still though, it leaves us with a net bump.....and when so many of our recent losses have been decided by 3 points. Just like for a while so many wins were decided by mere points.

[eyriq]

Now do offensive rating.....

Suggs off, Offensive Rating 109.27
Suggs on, Offensive Rating 107.77

He leaves a bit to be desired offensively

Still though, it leaves us with a net bump.....and when so many of our recent losses have been decided by 3 points. Just like for a while so many wins were decided by mere points.

Yup, we miss him. Stay healthy and improve on offense and he's a top 50 player.

[Fortune Teller]

They didn't shoot 32.6% from the field and 25.0% from three and give up 63 rebounds because Jalen Suggs was out.

And btw, VanVleet and Amen were out for Houston.

It's time to stop wasting energy talking about injuries and get real about how bad this roster is. Unbelievably bad shooting, ZERO depth.

Jeff turned two lottery picks in 2023 and massive cap space in summer 2024 into literally nothing. And then at the February trade deadline he didn't even reach out to other teams.

The fanbase needs to stop parroting Jeff's excuses and mythical 15-year timeline to greatness.

[Bergmaniac]

Yeah, I really like Suggs, but this is the NBA, every team has to deal with injuries during the long grind of this season. We have had our two top guys back for the last 20 games, Paolo has looked pretty good physically lately, and pretty much no other injuries apart from the long term ones to Suggs and Mo but we are still terrible. If you are that bad when your third best player and your bench centre are out, you are just not a good team.

[basketballRob]

Suggs was averaging like 13 3-pt attempts per 100 possessions. We haven't replaced that gravity in our offense

Sent from my SM-G781U using RealGM Forums mobile app

[pepe1991]

Womp womp. This is so hard to watch. We just do not have offensive firepower and that just isn't something I was expecting to say in 2025.

NBA offense in 2025 is nuclear warfare, Magic on offense have spears and stones

Since my return to watching basketball (my parents started dieing around the time Magic became bad and so when I say it was a little bit of "everything" that made me walk away it really was.) I missed the development of the NBA offense around the 3-ball. Simply put, I do understand the math behind how the current offense is supposed to work.

This isn't just a "stuck in our ways" approach. It's a little worse then that. We don't have to be a top 10 offense for me to love watching them play, I actually love putting defense first, but what we have done vs defense first is defense above literally anything else. In 80s / 90s era of baketball this would be fun and result in 60-70 point opponent games.

Too many offensively favorable rule changes + not enough players who can take advantage of the rule changes or at least have a step back 3 that is 30% accurate is pardon the expression, killing us.

Ugh, that's tough. My condolences. Hopefully you are doing better.

As for a league. How 3 point turned into actual thing? Imo two seasons were pivotal.
2013-14- Spurs revange season. Spurs lost in finals to Ray Allen 3 point shot in game 6. Lost game 7 within 2 possessions. Most people wrote them off as too old.
But 2013-14 was really different in terms of offensive efficiency. Pop always prefered "Euro" offense, basically 5 people invovled in offense and alive ball finding open players.
They weren't crazy on 3 FGA, but they finished season on 39,8% for 3 and were 1# three point shooting team in nba. All around they were 5th best offense.

But there was that " live by 3 die by 3 " mantra still alive. However, in playoffs two teams that went to finals were- Spurs- and Heat, and both teams were ranked 1# and 2# as teams with highest 3 point accuracy. With Spurs - ball moving, wide open 3 point shooting style crushed teams who on paper had more talent ( OKC, Heat).
In finals, Spurs just melted Heat with 3 point accuracy and idea was born.


Year after, Warriors & Curry and Klay take parts of Spurs offense ( pace, space, passing, alive ball concept of movement offense) and add another level to 3 point shooting. Second time in a row, nba champions are team with highest 3% but due sheer existence of Curry & Klay volume of shots goes up.

And that was pretty much it. I posted few days ago how nba is just bunch of copycat teams try to mimic current condenders & champions, and in matter of 1 year whole league went all in on 3 point shooting.

I would argue that league had to change years before, because most of other leagues played in style that is simialr to current nba style -20 years before nba. Why it didn't change? I guess because nobody won championship prior playing in such fashion. With Magic 2008, Suns 2007 being close.
NBA has floor is bigger than any other league, offensive players get away with ball carry, double dribbles, gather step exists nowhere but in nba. All those rules + great spacing means playing 1 on 1 is both: impossible to guard if offensive player is skilled and doubling great player is massive gamble.
Even average nba offense is near unguardable, too many moving parts at once, you can wear down any defene with enough off ball movment.

What's going on with Magic? Iso basketball. We play 2006 - Pistons vs Lakers basketball on offense. Give one guy ball and tell him to score, with others standing and doing nothing or next to nothing. But, at least to me, root problem is roster construction. Simply too many defensive specialist players that on normal team would be hidden on offense doing small roles. But with so many of them at once, they get exposed. So exposed that even Jeff Green looks like solid option in summer

[p0peye]

I attribute "3pt revolution" to article written by Bill Simmons in Grantland back in 2013. Read it and rewatch what defense looked like back then (by TIm Duncan, no less) and compare it to the standard we have now.

https://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-new-stephen-curry-how-the-warriors-super-shooter-has-transformed-his-game-in-the-playoffs/

[OrlChamps2030]

They didn't shoot 32.6% from the field and 25.0% from three and give up 63 rebounds because Jalen Suggs was out.

And btw, VanVleet and Amen were out for Houston.

It's time to stop wasting energy talking about injuries and get real about how bad this roster is. Unbelievably bad shooting, ZERO depth.

Jeff turned two lottery picks in 2023 and massive cap space in summer 2024 into literally nothing. And then at the February trade deadline he didn't even reach out to other teams.

The fanbase needs to stop parroting Jeff's excuses and mythical 15-year timeline to greatness.

Can’t forget the WCJ extension and not strengthening the bench after Mo went out. JI extension is looking pretty bad right now too.

Weltman has been collecting L’s at a rapid rate since the summer of 2023

[drsd]

They didn't shoot 32.6% from the field and 25.0% from three and give up 63 rebounds because Jalen Suggs was out.

The major corrlation of the Magic's 3pt shooting falling off a cliff is the loss of M-Wagner. WHen he exited, the rest of the team's numbers collapose. I do not see any causation there, at all, but M-Wagner is the Magic best 3pt shooting team and his absense is missed.

As to others' "depth argument", well having Suggs and M-Wagner playing, the Magic has that missing depth. Injuries thus easily explain that.

And to keep screaming from my soap box, this season sucks becasue the Magic lack SGs. A core of Caldwell-Pope, Harris, and Howard is embarrassing. All three are below Mendoza with a high at 32%; none are making anywhere near 1 made 3pointer per game.
This is not ok. And it is a glaring weakness. Saying "the Magic need play making" does not create a 40% 3-ball shooter at starting SG; shifting Suggs to SG similarly does not make (him) a 40% 3pt shooter.

The Magic is going to keep Suggs. Whether you want to call him a PG or SG is not the point, as no guard will be on ball in this team. Either way, the Magic need a consistent shooter to play off of Suggs. Coby White is not enough here. The only "PG" that meets the Magic's needs are Collin Sexton and (the probably wholly unavailable) Payton Pritchard. If the Magic get either, fine.
But there are more options at SG (affordable players only - listed): Luke Kennard, Grayson Allen, Keon Ellis, Norman Powell, Malik Beasley, Amir Coffey, Ochai Agbaji, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker - as simple examples.

My point, there are loads of PG/SGs WePark can look at in the FA or trade market. And for me, the Magic need two of the above type players.

[Furinkazan]

KC Poope
Oh noes I had one good game.Now I have to suck for the next 3-5 games.

[Bergmaniac]

They didn't shoot 32.6% from the field and 25.0% from three and give up 63 rebounds because Jalen Suggs was out.

The major corrlation of the Magic's 3pt shooting falling off a cliff is the loss of M-Wagner. WHen he exited, the rest of the team's numbers collapose. I do not see any causation there, at all, but M-Wagner is the Magic best 3pt shooting team and his absense is missed.

That's not true, we shot 28.8% from 3 in his minutes on the court this year, which is even worse than the season average.

[JoshuaPotter]

NBA offense in 2025 is nuclear warfare, Magic on offense have spears and stones

Since my return to watching basketball (my parents started dieing around the time Magic became bad and so when I say it was a little bit of "everything" that made me walk away it really was.) I missed the development of the NBA offense around the 3-ball. Simply put, I do understand the math behind how the current offense is supposed to work.

This isn't just a "stuck in our ways" approach. It's a little worse then that. We don't have to be a top 10 offense for me to love watching them play, I actually love putting defense first, but what we have done vs defense first is defense above literally anything else. In 80s / 90s era of baketball this would be fun and result in 60-70 point opponent games.

Too many offensively favorable rule changes + not enough players who can take advantage of the rule changes or at least have a step back 3 that is 30% accurate is pardon the expression, killing us.

Ugh, that's tough. My condolences. Hopefully you are doing better.

As for a league. How 3 point turned into actual thing? Imo two seasons were pivotal.
2013-14- Spurs revange season. Spurs lost in finals to Ray Allen 3 point shot in game 6. Lost game 7 within 2 possessions. Most people wrote them off as too old.
But 2013-14 was really different in terms of offensive efficiency. Pop always prefered "Euro" offense, basically 5 people invovled in offense and alive ball finding open players.
They weren't crazy on 3 FGA, but they finished season on 39,8% for 3 and were 1# three point shooting team in nba. All around they were 5th best offense.

But there was that " live by 3 die by 3 " mantra still alive. However, in playoffs two teams that went to finals were- Spurs- and Heat, and both teams were ranked 1# and 2# as teams with highest 3 point accuracy. With Spurs - ball moving, wide open 3 point shooting style crushed teams who on paper had more talent ( OKC, Heat).
In finals, Spurs just melted Heat with 3 point accuracy and idea was born.


Year after, Warriors & Curry and Klay take parts of Spurs offense ( pace, space, passing, alive ball concept of movement offense) and add another level to 3 point shooting. Second time in a row, nba champions are team with highest 3% but due sheer existence of Curry & Klay volume of shots goes up.

And that was pretty much it. I posted few days ago how nba is just bunch of copycat teams try to mimic current condenders & champions, and in matter of 1 year whole league went all in on 3 point shooting.

I would argue that league had to change years before, because most of other leagues played in style that is simialr to current nba style -20 years before nba. Why it didn't change? I guess because nobody won championship prior playing in such fashion. With Magic 2008, Suns 2007 being close.
NBA has floor is bigger than any other league, offensive players get away with ball carry, double dribbles, gather step exists nowhere but in nba. All those rules + great spacing means playing 1 on 1 is both: impossible to guard if offensive player is skilled and doubling great player is massive gamble.
Even average nba offense is near unguardable, too many moving parts at once, you can wear down any defene with enough off ball movment.

What's going on with Magic? Iso basketball. We play 2006 - Pistons vs Lakers basketball on offense. Give one guy ball and tell him to score, with others standing and doing nothing or next to nothing. But, at least to me, root problem is roster construction. Simply too many defensive specialist players that on normal team would be hidden on offense doing small roles. But with so many of them at once, they get exposed. So exposed that even Jeff Green looks like solid option in summer

Thanks for condolences. I remember traveling for work I believe it was and watching said finals game of Heat vs Spurs. It was the "background noise" at a food place. Or something...

Back to basketball. As I said, you could put any realistic 3rd scoring option in Suggs spot and I think he comes out scoring the same amount of PPG because and quote me on this. "The level of commitment required on defense."

Again, the whole game plan was defense above all else. I'm not just talking about 3-ball. I am talking literally anything. We got a FB in Paolo, and a Half back in Franz and we are just pounding our opponents on offense. Some days I think we aren't injury prone, we are just playing a different sport.

I can't think of a single statistical category we are good at on offense other then FTA per game. Which would be fine if we were #1 in makes, but we are not. Why? Because defense above all else that's why.

Paolo really needs to be a 90% free throw shooter for him to upend the NBA system as we know it. 80% just on average would erase a lot of our losses point differentials.

I digress. Like I said, defense above all else.
- Ball handing
- Assists
- 3-ball shooting
- Ball movement
- ect, ect, ect.

What really grinds my gears, is if anyone is playing the home game I said years ago in Paolo rookie season "why is Paolo left to make his own Magic on offense, there are no plays drawn up for him." I didn't need to watch a game to see that, I merely had to listen to the radio broadcaster to know there was no official play called and it breaks my head. Might as well be playing NBA Jam out there.

The current offensive version of this roster on a basketball game would be offensively unplayable or require a twitch / youtube challenge to get people to play the Magic in their current state.

[pepe1991]

Yea, our offense often looks like nba 2 k- career mode, when you just play by yourself

[Last Guardian]

Ironically we were one of the teams that started the modern 3 point crap, yet now we are the worst at it. For a while if it wasn't Dwight at the basket, it was a chucked up 3 ball. Nash suns were also around the same time.

[Skybox]

I think ONE deadly sniper like Simons, combined with Suggs and/or KCP regaining their previous % would be enough to really open things up. Paolo & Franz & Moe are enough of a threat out there that you can't ignore them but everyone else is just no threat from anywhere (inside or out) this year...Zion and Giannis can dominate games without even threatening to take a 3. Their teams give them enough space to dominate inside. We don't need to become BOS (and we couldn't anyway) and have 5 guys bombing away. every possession, but our "equalizer" is P&F's ability to get to the rim and draw fouls and be just enough of a 3pt threat to keep defenses honest. I don't think we need a 3pt shooting C as badly as we need one who is a dominant rebounder and interior defender (because our PF is neither). Bench is another issue, but I don't think we need to turn the whole team over...the financial concerns are real, the backcourt playmaking and scoring are very real, and the woeful bench scoring is a big problem, it's limited even with Moe.

If Suggs comes back next year and isn't a shooter (or if insiders really don't think last year was the real thing), he might be the odd man out. Even if he's DPOY, you just can't pay a guy $30m per for just "D". "3&D" is a critical thing, but not just D...not at that price. I'd say KCP should be aggressively shopped because he's paid too much to back up Suggs and provide the same stuff, with less upside and impact (and this is me giving him the benefit of the doubt that his shooting will awaken).

Even Simons sitting in a lawn chair will warp the defense and open things up...Jett's got that quick release, so it's hard to just dump him unless he has some value...he could morph into a bench bomber - a better Caleb. On the other other hand, Caleb makes like $1m, so maybe milk everything you can get out of him and trade the salaried guys that are meh and focus on the starting lineup and, maybe, just try to balance the bench players with a healthy Moe and the next Ingles, on the cheap. Cole is simply expiring salary match...I love the guy- he has won games for us, but it's just prolonging a non-viable situation...he makes too much to wave towels and play Superman a couple times a month. I'll wish him the best and hope he gets a big opportunity on a rebuilding team.